Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Europe cold wave deaths hit 200; low-snow winter for the U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:06 GMT le 03 février 2012

+25

Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyiv this morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 - 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.

Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.

Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it's been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 - 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it's looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday's statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That's more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.

The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8" of snow this winter--more than two feet below their average for February 1.

Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Freezed Guy (cathykiro)

Windows in the winter (cetus)

Snowy Golosiiv wood...

The snow and sun (Cirrostratuss)

Maximum temperature today -21c in the afternoon.

Bulbs - Northern IL Jan. 31, 2012 (juslivn)

Noooo Babies! Hide, hide! It's a trick! It's too early.

Winter (roslany)

Frozen River (tomekandjola)

Categories: Winter Weather

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301. pwmeek 14:21 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting yqt1001: Oh my god, I think I found one of my favourite image ever. Amazing! Thanks! :D Featured in The Visual Display of Quantitative Information by Edward R. Tufte (p 41). Said to be the greatest information graphic ever created. Member Since: 26 Mars 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 13

302. AtHomeInTX 14:22 GMT le 04 février 2012
Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3875

303. PensacolaDoug 14:23 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting TampaSpin: Probably a very bad drought season coming for the MidWest and NorthEast this summer. Hope you're wrong on that one Tampa, USA needs a break on screwy weather. Member Since: 25 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4827

304. HadesGodWyvern 14:24 GMT le 04 février 2012
300. TampaSpin 2:16 PM GMT on February 04, 2012 Probably a very bad drought season coming for the MidWest and NorthEast this summer. ugh, don't want another 2005. Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686

305. AtHomeInTX 14:24 GMT le 04 février 2012
... Flash Flood Watch in effect through this afternoon... The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Louisiana and southeast Texas... including the following areas... in Louisiana... Acadia... Allen... Avoyelles... Beauregard... Calcasieu... Evangeline... Jefferson Davis... Lafayette... Rapides... St. Landry... upper St. Martin and Vernon. In southeast Texas... Hardin... Jefferson... northern Jasper... northern Newton... Orange... southern Jasper... southern Newton and Tyler. * Through this afternoon * widespread shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected today along and ahead of a cold front advancing across the region. Unusually high moisture values in place ahead of this feature along with relatively slow moving convection will yield heavy and possible flooding rains. Additionally... antecedent conditions from previous rains of the last several days will add to the flooding threat. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be common across the area... with isolated areas receiving 3 to 5 inches. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued. Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3875

306. AtHomeInTX 14:27 GMT le 04 février 2012
TORNADO WARNING LAC003-011-041445- /O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0026.120204T1420Z-120204T1445Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 820 AM CST SAT FEB 4 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL ALLEN PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES MITTIE... NORTHEASTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES SUGARTOWN... * UNTIL 845 AM CST * AT 815 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES WEST OF SUGARTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... SUGARTOWN BY 835 AM CST... GRANT AND MITTIE BY 845 AM CST... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS. && PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1. LAT...LON 3088 9303 3088 9289 3068 9284 3071 9325 3088 9324 3089 9317 3088 9313 TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 272DEG 25KT 3079 9314 Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3875

307. sunlinepr 14:29 GMT le 04 février 2012
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

308. hydrus 14:38 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting Grothar: We have to be nice to hydrus. Currently he is our resident-in-reserve for these things in the off-season. It would surprise the heck out of me if something does develop. Although I do recall back in 1348 a similar setup in February, Although in the old calendar it was really March. 1348 was a terrible year for Europe as Black Death was ravaging the populace....Killed two thirds of its citizens ya know. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14283

309. presslord 14:40 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting hydrus: 1348 was a terrible year for Europe as Black Death was ravaging the populace....Killed two thirds of its citizens ya know. Yup..Grothar was really fortunate to have lived through all that... Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

310. hydrus 14:40 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting pwmeek: This lack of snow and this warm weather is not good for Great Lakes Levels. Less falling in the Lakes directly, and less from the watershed as the (lack of) snow melts. Additionally, evaporation going on all winter with less ice cover. They will disappear(again) one day. Unless of course there is a freak climate change that sends us into another Ice Age. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14283

311. hydrus 14:41 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting presslord: Yup..Grothar was really fortunate to have lived through all that... Anything that old has got to be tough..Good morning Press. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14283

312. TampaSpin 14:46 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting PensacolaDoug: Hope you're wrong on that one Tampa, USA needs a break on screwy weather. Snow cover keeps the top soil from drying out....NO Snow has really dried out the top soil very deep thus far. Unless the spring is wet then we might have a problem. Just my opinion tho.... Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

313. TampaSpin 14:48 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern: ugh, don't want another 2005. UGH is correct.....don't wanna see another 2005! Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

314. hydrus 14:57 GMT le 04 février 2012
Thats got to be a cat-5... Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14283

315. presslord 15:03 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting hydrus: Thats got to be a cat-5... Where! is! it! gonna! hit! Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

316. hydrus 15:11 GMT le 04 février 2012
The models seem to want cold air for the U.S..It never really happens tho...If this were to continue into March. We may not see much severe weather as the seasonal jet shift will be much less pronounced. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14283

317. hydrus 15:15 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting presslord: Where! is! it! gonna! hit! Carolina.s ........This actually happened 60 years ago...Pressure map showing the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm as an extra-tropical storm off of the Eastern Seaboard.After the storm moved into the western Atlantic, the Miami U.S. Weather Bureau issued storm warnings for the North Carolina coastline from Wilmington to Cape Hatteras; the region was warned to prepare for strong winds. The agency also issued a small craft advisory southward through Charleston, South Carolina. Offshore, the storm produced winds of up to 85 mph (140 km/h), as well as waves up to 35 feet (10 m) in height. The combination of the winds and rough waves drove a freighter ashore along Portsmouth Island in the Outer Banks, after the engine was damaged when water entered the fuel line. The 26 person crew initially planned to evacuate, but they later decided to stay on the freighter as the U.S. Coast Guard were deployed to assist. The seas damaged a portion of the ship, but the entire crew was rescued without any injuries. The storm later brushed New England, bringing rain, fog, warmer temperatures, and gusty winds. The combination resulted in downed power poles and tree limbs, leaving 10,000 houses without electricity...As per Wiki.. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14283

318. sunlinepr 15:30 GMT le 04 février 2012
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8445

319. SPLbeater 15:34 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting hydrus: Thats got to be a cat-5... too strong to rank... Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953

320. wxmod 15:37 GMT le 04 février 2012
Asia smog in mid Pacific Member Since: 4 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220

321. wxmod 15:40 GMT le 04 février 2012
Asia smog leaving Asia Member Since: 4 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220

322. ChillinInTheKeys 15:46 GMT le 04 février 2012
How NASA Solved a $100 Million Problem for Five Bucks. Link Well I would guess it was a couple more bucks than that, but still less expensive and lighter. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 448

323. SPLbeater 15:54 GMT le 04 février 2012
maybe i can git a nice line of thunderstorms today.... Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953

324. SPLbeater 15:55 GMT le 04 février 2012
back l8r Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953

325. TropicalAnalystwx13 16:04 GMT le 04 février 2012
This disturbance has consolidated quite nicely from last night. If I had no idea what time of year it was and just looked at satellite imagery, I could believe this system was on its way to becoming a named storm. I don't know what to call this thing. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25286

326. WxGeekVA 16:05 GMT le 04 février 2012
60 hour new snow forecast NAM Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3315

327. WxGeekVA 16:07 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This disturbance has consolidated quite nicely from last night. If I had no idea what time of year it was and just looked at satellite imagery, I could believe this system was on its way to becoming a named storm. I don't know what to call this thing. ASCAT finally partially caught it... Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3315

328. marsHen 16:23 GMT le 04 février 2012
75F, sunny and hazy, wi. a slight breeze from the east in north florida.. dry. Member Since: 5 septembre 2011 Posts: 581 Comments: 111

329. hydrus 16:30 GMT le 04 février 2012
If there is a spot for possible tropical development in the Atlantic basin this time of year, thats the area it would most likely happen. With all the strange weather going on, it would not surprise me if something formed there.. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14283

330. bohonkweatherman 16:32 GMT le 04 février 2012
Hello from flooded south central texas, 15 inches here since Nov. 8th including over 7 inches in 2012. You go west of Austin 30 to 50 miles around our Lake areas and they cannot buy a shower, Lake Travis is down 55 feet and no rain is falling in the right places for them to get any water. Areas around there are out of water and having it trucked in, 30 miles to the southeast I have water standing everywhere. 1 out of every 5 La Ninas are wetter than normal and this is true for Texas which is awesome news. It is green everywhere around here and I am mowing and edging my yard because i need to. Last year at this time temps were 16 to 30 degrees. I had 9.5 inches of rain from Sept 2010 to November 7th 2011 then the skies opened up. Those areas that still need rain throughout the USA I hope you receive it soon. It may take a tropical system for our lakes to get the rain they need because almost every system has the rains forming along IH35 and eastward. Member Since: 5 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

331. hydrus 16:38 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting bohonkweatherman: Hello from flooded south central texas, 15 inches here since Nov. 8th including over 7 inches in 2012. You go west of Austin 30 to 50 miles around our Lake areas and they cannot buy a shower, Lake Travis is down 55 feet and no rain is falling in the right places for them to get any water. Areas around there are out of water and having it trucked in, 30 miles to the southeast I have water standing everywhere. 1 out of every 5 La Ninas are wetter than normal and this is true for Texas which is awesome news. It is green everywhere around here and I am mowing and edging my yard because i need to. Last year at this time temps were 16 to 30 degrees. I had 9.5 inches of rain from Sept 2010 to November 7th 2011 then the skies opened up. Those areas that still need rain throughout the USA I hope you receive it soon. It may take a tropical system for our lakes to get the rain they need because almost every system has the rains forming along IH35 and eastward. I hope you all can get rain where you need it most. I have not had much time to make a prediction or look at the forecasts, but the weather has without a doubt taken a turn for the unusual. I have some trees sprouting leaves here on the Cumberland Plateau. Flowers have been sprouting the whole winter period here. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14283

332. Xyrus2000 16:44 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting TomTaylor: Dang, your grandpa must have been huge. I am pretty damn skinny, have been all my life, trying to change that but my metabolism is making that tough. Lucky. For me, it's a constant battle to not put on weight. If I so much as smell a box a doughnuts I sprout love handles and become a fire hazard when wearing corduroys. If I ate what I wanted to eat I end up looking like melted vanilla soft-serve ice cream dipped in hair clippings. :D Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

333. Buhdog 16:46 GMT le 04 février 2012
Looks very Troughy down there in the carib...lets see if it can detach and go! Member Since: 30 juillet 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 950

334. Xyrus2000 16:46 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting TampaSpin: Probably a very bad drought season coming for the MidWest and NorthEast this summer. Time to invest in agricultural commodities then. :P Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

335. Xyrus2000 16:51 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting presslord: Where! is! it! gonna! hit! You do William Shatner proud. Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

336. hydrus 16:56 GMT le 04 février 2012
This area is flaring up again.. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14283

337. hydrus 16:58 GMT le 04 février 2012
Definitely an interesting pattern taking shape over the U.S. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14283

338. Grothar 17:07 GMT le 04 février 2012
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19526

339. PolishHurrMaster 17:13 GMT le 04 février 2012
Hmmm... :) Member Since: 19 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 344

340. PolishHurrMaster 17:14 GMT le 04 février 2012
Convergence not that nice: Member Since: 19 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 344

341. Grothar 17:15 GMT le 04 février 2012
Anybody have any interesting plans for tomorrow> Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19526

342. TropicalAnalystwx13 17:16 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting Grothar: Anybody have any interesting plans for tomorrow> Hamburger Cheese dip and wings all day. :) Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25286

343. SPLbeater 17:22 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting Grothar: Anybody have any interesting plans for tomorrow> church...lay around(blog)....eat...lay around(blog)...eat..church...blog...bedtime! Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953

344. Grothar 17:30 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting SPLbeater: church...lay around(blog)....eat...lay around(blog)...eat..church...blog...bedtime! Maybe there'll be something good on TV. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19526

345. ChillinInTheKeys 17:39 GMT le 04 février 2012
Harold Lloyd marathon? Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 448

346. SPLbeater 17:39 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting Grothar: Maybe there'll be something good on TV. we got rid of TV service. nothing good anymore with exception of a few channels...not worth the money. kept TV for Wii :D Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953

347. Grothar 17:43 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys: Harold Lloyd marathon? Too scary. Very funny guy, but always at the edge of my seat. Good thing about silent movies. You couldn't hear yourself scream. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19526

348. ChillinInTheKeys 17:46 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting Grothar: Too scary. Very funny guy, but always at the edge of my seat. Good thing about silent movies. You couldn't hear yourself scream. Link Notice the PWS around 6:20. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 448

349. WxGeekVA 17:47 GMT le 04 février 2012
ASCAT ascending caught only the SW edge, no turning noticed. And the only vorticity is on the 500MB level, and even that is not well defined. And the whole system is under 35-40 kts of shear... Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3315

350. Grothar 17:52 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys: Link Notice the PWS around 6:20. You've got a a good eye. He actually did all those stunts himself. Most of them were real. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19526

351. ChillinInTheKeys 18:00 GMT le 04 février 2012
Quoting Grothar: You've got a a good eye. He actually did all those stunts himself. Most of them were real. I know. The dude was insane! I would have at least wore my Keds. Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 448

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