Rare February tropical disturbance drenching the Florida Keys
Our calendars may say it's February, but Mother Nature's calendar says it's more like May in the waters of South Florida, where the year's first significant tropical disturbance is drenching the Keys. The disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC late Sunday morning, has dumped 1 - 3 inches of rain over much of the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West receiving 4.34" of rain on Sunday, a record for the date. The storm was close to developing a surface circulation last night, thanks to wind shear values to fell to 20 - 25 knots, and NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a subtropical depression in a special Tropical Weather Outlook issued last night. However, wind shear has increased to a prohibitive 30 - 40 knots this morning, and 90L is looking much less organized. In their 7 am EST outlook this morning, NHC gave 90L a 0% chance of developing. The system will continue to grow less organized today as it moves over Nassau in the Bahamas and heads out to sea.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Invest 90L.
What's going on?
Obviously, strong tropical disturbances capable of developing into named storms are very rare in February, and I've never seen one in my 30 years as a meteorologist. However, ocean temperatures are warm enough year-round to support a tropical storm in the waters of the Western Caribbean. Water temperatures today in the region were 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is near average for this time of year. If an unusual configuration of the jet stream allows wind shear to drop below about 25 knots in the Western Caribbean, there is the opportunity for a rare off-season tropical storm to form in February. I discussed in an appearance on NPR's All Things Considered on Friday just how unusual the atmospheric flow patterns have been this winter, and today's rare tropical disturbance over South Florida is symptomatic of how whacked-out our 2012 atmosphere has been. In isolation, the strange winter weather of 2011 - 2012 could be a natural rare occurrence, but there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate, as I discussed in my post last week, Where is the climate headed?
A historical precedent: the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm
There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,
The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.
Meteorologist Andrew Hagen performed a re-analysis of all the tropical storms between 1944 - 1953 for his Ph.D. thesis, and looked in detail at the 1952 Groundhog Day's storm. He noted that it didn't look like a classic tropical storm, but it didn't look like an extratropical storm, either, and should stay in the database as the first named storm of 1952. In the old teletype files for February 1952, he found a February 2 message from the Cuban Weather Service that expressed some concern about possible tropical development between Cuba and Florida. NHC responded: "TROPICAL STORMS DO NOT FORM IN FEBRUARY."
Figure 2. February 2, 1952 teletype message from the Hurricane Center to the Cuban Weather Service, explaining that there couldn't possibly be a tropical storm in February. Image credit: Andrew Hagen.
Jeff Masters
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Here are a bunch of links from our friend Adrian's (Hurricane23) site.
Link
Bottom line, then: look for some very warm--likely record
warmhot--Gulf temperatures this year.It's a good thing this actually is February, and not August or September.
I don't see any normal-looking temperatures in the forecast for at least the next week.
According to the forecast, Friday is going to be the first day in February which will have a low as low as 40.
We may not even get another day at or below freezing this year. That's ridiculous.
But that was before satellites...
Of the 7 systems that formed on that year,6 became hurricanes.
Link
Just when you thought it was over, the temperature at reactor number 2 at Fukushima's nuclear plant has soared 26.7 degrees Celsius in the last few hours. Worse: they don't know why the temperature is increasing after being stabilized for so long.
The reactor reached 164 degrees Fahrenheit (73.3 degrees Celsius) after being stabilized at 113 degrees Fahrenheit (45 degrees Celsius) since last December. Here's the latest official update by Tepco, the owner of the plant:
At this moment, temperature indicates approx. 71.0 °C (as of 11:00 am on February 6). We will monitor it continuously.
The reactors were finally shut down cold after ten months of dramatic struggle by company and emergency workers.
Tepco has admitted that they don't have a clue about what is going on. They have increased the amount of water pumped into the reactor ten percent, but their technicians don't know what is going on. The change was detected in one of the three thermometers at the base of the reactor.
The plant was hit by a magnitude 9 earthquake and a tsunami that caused all systems to shut down, sending the reactors and spent nuclear fuel rods into a disastrous spiral of malfunctions that ended in a meltdown and venting of radioactivity material to the water and the atmosphere.
Helicopters have started to survey the area above the plant to gather information about the current radiation level in the air.
By Marcus Day
6 February 2012
A nuclear reactor in Byron, Illinois, about 95 miles northwest of Chicago, released radioactive steam into the environment after an unexpected shutdown Monday morning. The steam was deliberately released by plant operators in an effort to prevent equipment at the reactor from overheating. Additionally, smoke was spotted rising from a station transformer at the plant itself. However, a fire crew called to the scene was unable to determine its source and whether or not it was caused by a fire. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission declared the incident an “unusual event,” the first of four stages of nuclear emergency.
The Exelon Corporation, which runs the Byron Nuclear Generating Station, claims the reactor lost power after a line insulator failed at an electrical switchyard dozens of miles away from the plant itself. The reactor’s equipment continued to run on diesel power for four days, at which point workers were able to replace the malfunctioning insulator.
The steam released from the plant contained tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen. Although tritium is too weak to penetrate the skin, it can be dangerous if touched, inhaled, or ingested via food or water.
While officials claim that the amount of radioactive material expelled was “minimal” and poses no immediate health risks, they have been unable to determine exactly how much tritium was released in the steam. Tritium molecules are small enough that they are able to pass from tubing in the reactor itself into the water, which is used to cool equipment outside the reactor. It was from this area of the plant, where the turbines normally operate, that the steam was released, in order to reduce pressure and cool the inactive equipment.
Exelon, based in Chicago, is the largest utility holding company and operates the second largest number of nuclear reactors in the US. This is by no means the first time operators at an Exelon plant have deliberately released radioactive steam in order to cool a reactor. Another of Exelon’s reactors in Braidwood, Illinois, 50 miles southwest of Chicago, expelled tritium steam in 2010. Moreover, in 2006, it was revealed that both the company and state officials had waited years before publicly revealing that this plant had spilled millions of gallons of water, also containing tritium.
The “unusual event” at Byron was not the only radioactive leak at an American plant this week: the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) also reported a “minor” release of radioactive material at a reactor in San Onofre, California. The origin of this leak remains undetermined.
An investigation by the Associated Press last year revealed that there have been tritium leaks at least at 48 of 65 nuclear energy production sites in the United States. Many of these leaks have found their way into the groundwater via damaged and neglected piping. In fact, two of these previous leaks were documented as contaminating the drinking wells of homes in Illinois, though not at levels exceeding the NRC’s limits for safe drinking water. It is important to note, however, that the American standard for “safe” amounts of tritium in drinking water is nearly eight times that of the European Union.
Even though the frequency and severity of leaks and equipment failures have been increasing over recent decades, as pipes and other equipment fall into ever-greater disrepair, the federal agency charged with regulating the industry has significantly increased the number of licenses, which they have extended for plants. As of 2011, at least 60 percent of nuclear plants have received 20-year extensions on their 40-year operating licenses.
The Obama administration, despite its professions of concern for environmental safety, maintains an incestuous relationship with Exelon. Rahm Emanuel, the mayor of Chicago and Obama’s former chief of staff, helped play a critical role in the merger that formed Exelon in 1999. David Axelrod, until recently Obama’s senior advisor, was a communications consultant to the company. In addition to top executives at the corporation having raised significant funds for several of Obama’s political campaigns, officials from Obama’s energy department have left their posts for lucrative positions at the company.
The incidents at Byron and San Onofre come less than a year after an earthquake and tsunami struck Japan, knocking out power and backup cooling systems at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant, triggering meltdowns at three of the plant’s six reactors, and eventually leading to one of the worst nuclear disasters in history, second perhaps only to Chernobyl.
Officials at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), which ran the plant, delayed taking critical measures to prevent the reactor from overheating out of concern that they would present considerable expenses to the company in the future. Both TEPCO officials and members of the Japanese government consciously played down the extent of damage to the plant and the health risks facing those living nearby. Even though TEPCO had a long history of cover-ups and safety violations, they were allowed by the Japanese government to remain in control of trying to manage the disaster. Nearly 100,000 people have been forced to flee their homes because of widespread nuclear contamination, and traces of radioactivity continue to turn up in food in Japan’s major cities.
Even though TEPCO officials claim they have managed to force the damaged reactors into a state of “cold shutdown,” there is evidence that the plant continues to expel radioactive material. Just this week, it was discovered that a dislodged pipe allowed 8.5 tons of radioactive water to leak from the plant. Nuclear experts remain concerned about the structural integrity of the pool in which spent fuel is kept; if this pool were to collapse, it could produce a catastrophe worse than the meltdowns of the plant’s three reactors.
After the disaster at Fukushima, even though there was widespread concern internationally about the safety of nuclear power plants, Obama officials maintained that existing safety regulations were satisfactory and refused to seriously re-evaluate the aggressive plan for expansion of the domestic nuclear industry.
In March 2011, a day after hydrogen explosions erupted at Fukushima’s damaged reactors, US energy secretary Stephen Chu went before a congressional subcommittee to claim that “The American people should have full confidence that the United States has rigorous safety regulations in place to ensure that our nuclear power is generated safely and responsibly” and that “the administration is committed to learning from Japan’s experience as we work to continue to strengthen America’s nuclear industry to reevaluate domestic nuclear industry.”
Clearly, as the continual near misses and “minor” accidents at American nuclear facilities reveal, the administration is in fact committed to nothing but the defense of the nuclear industry’s profit interests. While these companies remain under private ownership, the health and safety of both the population and the environment will remain, at best, an afterthought.
I mean its not that we don't get rain or thunderstorms this time of year, but we never get them this way, it has to normally come from a cold front/low pressure system.
And the language in it really shows how much less we knew about the world of weather back then. If there is only one thing that i've learned in my years of tracking systems, it is that the only weather that is 100% guaranteed, is the weather that is right outside your window. And even that can change in a matter of minutes. As much as we probably still hate to admit it, there really are no absolute statements in weather.
That was a long time ago. I guarantee you there were several more storms that went out to sea that year.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
6:00 AM FST February 7 2012
=====================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 17.7S 161.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite enhanced infrared radar imagery with peripheral surface reports
Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
160 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Overall organization has improved over the past 24 hours. Convection has increased in the last 6 hours. System remains in a region of strong diffluent enhanced by a short-wave trough just to the southwest. Outflow remains good. Cyclone is being steered to the southeast by strong northwesterly steering and lies in an area of low vertical wind shear.
Dvorak analysis based on 0.85 wrap yielding
Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24 HRS
Cyclone still expected to intensify further as
It remains in a favorable environment. Models generally agree on a east-southeast movement and further intensification within the next 12 to 24 hours.
Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 18.0S 164.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 18.7S 166.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 21.8S 170.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
The next tropical disturbance advisory on TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
6:00 AM FST February 7 2012
===================================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR HAAPAI, VAVA'U AND NIUATOPUTAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category One (987 hPa) located at 18.8S 174.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 18 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.
Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Organization has improved significantly past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands trying to trap around the low level circulation center. Outflow good to the north and southeast but restricted elsewhere. System lies to the east of an upper short wave trough and south of 250 hpa ridge axis. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500hpa. System lies in a low sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean flow into an area of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 28C
Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap yielding
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.2S 170.4W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 24.0S 166.0W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 27.7S 157.3W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Cyril will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..
Yeah, I think that's the same one the GFS was saying will be 948mb.
Starts as a 1012 surface low in the gulf, and then after some merging becomes that monster.
Would NOT want to be in a boat in that. LOL.
At least it stays well of shore from the CONUS.
Yeah it looks like we may get a very beneficial rain maker this weekend based on what I'm seeing so far. My rain gauge is approaching 1 inch from this nice cell right now though!
The one on the plains looks puny by comparison. Sorry for the confusion.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit the earth!
here is a link to ALL weather services since u said u need links Link
Its heading south.
cute little thing..
We all need to see a dancing llama once in a while to lighten the mood!
Still, any missed storms just swirled out to sea harmlessly...
Thomas and Friends old theme song...how i miss it.
CORRECTION: this is not 11P; its some random swirl lol
Invest 97P most likely.
________________________________________________
User: What is the name of the girl that I currently like?
Cleverbot: I don't like a girl, I like a boy.
User: I am talking about me, what girl do I like?
Cleverbot: So, your name is Lion.
User: What is her name?
Cleverbot: Who?
User: The girl that I like.
Cleverbot: Who is the girl that you love?
User: Yes, what is her name?
Cleverbot: Justin Bieber.
User: Oh god no....
Cleverbot: O god yes.
User: .....
Cleverbot: What?
User: Justin Bieber is a girl, but that isn't who I am talking about.
Cleverbot: Justin Bieber is a girl, haven't you heard her voice?
ya probably
Weekly ENSO Update 6. February 2012
Got to go take pictures of the food at a bbq place down the street..(I'm building their website) Thank god I took my kids with me, they just kept bringing our plates of food and we'd take pictures and pass to plates to the kids.. I came home with 9 cartons of left-overs, ribs, pulled pork, chicken, baked beans, coleslaw etc etc etc.. I love my job!
Cleverbot: Yes they will, they'll come to get you.
Me: How many hurricanes will hit?
Cleverbot: All.
O_O OMG, DOOMSDAY! 2012 will KILL US ALL! XD
"Nuclear experts remain concerned about the structural integrity of the pool in which spent fuel is kept; if this pool were to collapse, it could produce a catastrophe worse than the meltdowns of the plant’s three reactors."
That's a nice tidbit. Godzilla's up to some mischief that's for sure.
this is normal for the off season....just seems slow after yesterdays' hype on 90L :D
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