Rare February tropical disturbance drenching the Florida Keys
Our calendars may say it's February, but Mother Nature's calendar says it's more like May in the waters of South Florida, where the year's first significant tropical disturbance is drenching the Keys. The disturbance, designated Invest 90L by NHC late Sunday morning, has dumped 1 - 3 inches of rain over much of the Florida Keys this morning, with Key West receiving 4.34" of rain on Sunday, a record for the date. The storm was close to developing a surface circulation last night, thanks to wind shear values to fell to 20 - 25 knots, and NHC gave 90L a 30% chance of developing into a subtropical depression in a special Tropical Weather Outlook issued last night. However, wind shear has increased to a prohibitive 30 - 40 knots this morning, and 90L is looking much less organized. In their 7 am EST outlook this morning, NHC gave 90L a 0% chance of developing. The system will continue to grow less organized today as it moves over Nassau in the Bahamas and heads out to sea.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Invest 90L.
What's going on?
Obviously, strong tropical disturbances capable of developing into named storms are very rare in February, and I've never seen one in my 30 years as a meteorologist. However, ocean temperatures are warm enough year-round to support a tropical storm in the waters of the Western Caribbean. Water temperatures today in the region were 26 - 26.5°C (79 - 80°F), which is near average for this time of year. If an unusual configuration of the jet stream allows wind shear to drop below about 25 knots in the Western Caribbean, there is the opportunity for a rare off-season tropical storm to form in February. I discussed in an appearance on NPR's All Things Considered on Friday just how unusual the atmospheric flow patterns have been this winter, and today's rare tropical disturbance over South Florida is symptomatic of how whacked-out our 2012 atmosphere has been. In isolation, the strange winter weather of 2011 - 2012 could be a natural rare occurrence, but there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate, as I discussed in my post last week, Where is the climate headed?
A historical precedent: the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm
There is a historical precedent for a tropical storm this time of year--the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,
The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.
Meteorologist Andrew Hagen performed a re-analysis of all the tropical storms between 1944 - 1953 for his Ph.D. thesis, and looked in detail at the 1952 Groundhog Day's storm. He noted that it didn't look like a classic tropical storm, but it didn't look like an extratropical storm, either, and should stay in the database as the first named storm of 1952. In the old teletype files for February 1952, he found a February 2 message from the Cuban Weather Service that expressed some concern about possible tropical development between Cuba and Florida. NHC responded: "TROPICAL STORMS DO NOT FORM IN FEBRUARY."
Figure 2. February 2, 1952 teletype message from the Hurricane Center to the Cuban Weather Service, explaining that there couldn't possibly be a tropical storm in February. Image credit: Andrew Hagen.
Jeff Masters
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*Austin Powers* Oh BEHAVE, baby!
I get that all the time.....
The followup reminds me of another truth: What is the difference between a dog and a woman? If you lock them both up in the garage and leave, when you get back the dog will be happy to see you.
SPL^^^^^ right there. And ROTFL TRUE!!!!
teehee
the pup is a 15 month old, 65 pounds of muscle. ever since we got her i ran around all day outside with her, and she has tackeld me 3 times SOLO. jumping up behind me while i was running, and tangling my ankles lol. bappit not on ignore no mo
The scientists, who advocate geoengineering methods such as spraying millions of tonnes of reflective particles of sulphur dioxide 30 miles above earth, argue that a "plan B" for climate change will be needed if the UN and politicians cannot agree to making the necessary cuts in greenhouse gases, and say the US government and others should pay for a major programme of international research."
You can read the article here: Link
AmyRochelleColon, when will you come out from hiding?!
Good Night.
Link
THX Bass test. notes vary from about 80Hz to 20Hz
Thats my point, an M limit of 51/101 implies an intercept at (101,53) - which is outside the 0 < x < 100 range.
I've rechecked my logic and I believe it's sound. If 0 < x <= 100 I believe the limit to be 50/99.
It very well could happen!
i have wondered from day 1 who the heck AmyRochelleColon is....plussing comments, never says a word lol...
Nea.
The lights I could watch for hours. As a kid, my grandmother talked about the Northern light. I spent many sleepless nights looking for them.
The charts indicate far less sea ice for now as referenced to last year. This troubles me. According to info. I have gathered and put together, Global temps will increase for 3 or 4 more years from 2011 before it starts cooling again. This cycle will not help the Arctic ice.
The information I have will not be discussed before it is reviewed by the climate science community. All I have to do is find and inroad.
Jesse
only weather related if it's raining cats and dogs (mild rain is puppies and kittens) as for the girls i seem to remember something about rain making T-shirts wet? ........back to lurking
Robert Service (1874-1958)
The Cremation of Sam McGee
There are strange things done in the midnight sun
By the men who moil for gold;
The Arctic trails have their secret tales
That would make your blood run cold;
The Northern Lights have seen queer sights,
But the queerest they ever did see
Was that night on the marge of Lake Lebarge
I cremated Sam McGee.
I posted a blog entry about the AO and this warm winter last week. I know you (and the commenters here) have a strong science background; my goal is to reach out to those with little to no science knowledge, so hopefully I didn't gloss over too many details.
Check it out here: The J Farmer's Almanac
Shen
You need to stay over at Orca's
Jesse
Does anyone comprehend, for just a small glimpse of a moment, just how much reflective aerosols are needed to offset the present day CO2 level's forcing?
This is the volume curve for arctic sea ice.
Notice, in 1991, Pinatubo erupted as a VEI 6, and then this was followed by a rebound peak of just 1400km^3 the following year. Now pinatubo didn't just put cubic miles worth of vaporized rock into the air as aerosols, it also deposited iron into the oceans which deflected the keeling curve SLIGHTLY downward for about 2 years, but the curve still never went neutral, nevermind negative.
Then, a few years later, Montsurat erupted as a VEI 5, followed by another rebound peak in 1996.
But in both cases the rebound IMMEDIATELY fell off within one to four years as bad or worse than it started off.
Why?
Because it doesn't address the problem, which is the greenhouse effect.
The aerosols eventually break down, rather quickly actually, due to radiation or chemistry and then you're back on target within a few years.
Now that was when CO2 was 30 to 40 PPM lower, or about 70 to 80PPM above natural.
Now we are around 110PPM above natural.
Imagine how much aeresol you'd need to try to offset that excess GHG for just one year?
Well, you need something the size of Pinatubo just to offset it for ONE year,maybe two years, and then the next year it will be back on pace again anyway.
You'd need to spray GIGATONS of Sulfur Dioxide into the atmosphere, above what nature and man already do, and of course you need to make sure you also don't make more greenhouse gases than it's worth in the process of doing so.
In short, you need a VEI 6 eruption about every 2 years in order to stabilize the climate...that is, if we also QUIT making excess CO2...
The net forcing right now due to CO2 and positive albedo feedback is an insane 0.5 watts per square meter averaged for the entire planet.
After 1 year that comes to 8E21 Joules, which, by the way, comes to the energy equivalent of 22,365 of the 1883 Krakatoa eruptions per year.
The pathetic attempt to fly a few jumbo jets around and spray some SO2 isn't going to matter.
You'd have to make entire cities of nothing but factories literally burning sulfur for no reason other than to inject it into the atmosphere just to ever break even, and it still doesn't solve the problem because then you'd be poisoning the air AND the CO2 will still keep getting worse every year anyway.
I mean just go look at some video of Pinatubo and all the gas and rock it ejected, and it barely even made a dent...for one freakin year, and then the melt curve rebounded twice as bad afterwards.
Correction:
0.5 watts is the forcing that comes from CO2 alone, and does not count Methane or positive albedo feedback.
the total forcing is actually close to 2 watts.
.They never seem to.They don't plus my comments so as of now I don't care.Night all.
Fraid I'll scare the chilren? ;)
February 06, 2012, 10:41 PM EST
By Tsuyoshi Inajima
(Updates with comment from professor in fourth paragraph.)
Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Tokyo Electric Power Co. injected boric acid into a reactor at its crippled Fukushima nuclear plant to prevent an accidental chain reaction known as re- criticality after temperatures rose in the past week.
The temperature of the No. 2 reactor was 70.1 degrees Celsius (158 degrees Fahrenheit) as of 6 a.m. today, according to preliminary data, Akitsuka Kobayashi, a spokesman for the utility, said by phone. The reading fell from 72.2 degrees at 5 a.m. this morning, and is below the 93 degrees that’s used to define a cold shutdown, or safe state, of the reactor.
Since Feb. 1, temperatures at the bottom of the No. 2 reactor vessel have risen by more than 20 degrees Celsius, according to the company’s data. Tepco, as the utility is known, and the government announced that the Fukushima plant reached a cold shutdown on Dec. 16, nine months after the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami wrecked the nuclear station, and caused three reactors to meltdown and release radiation.
“It was too early to say the plant is safe in December. They declared cold shutdown even though nobody is sure about the location of melted fuel,” Tetsuo Ito, the head of the Atomic Energy Research Institute at Kinki University in western Japan. “A similar incident will probably occur again.”
Tepco increased the rate of cooling water being injected into the unit to 13.5 cubic meters per hour from 10.5 cubic meters per hour at 4:24 a.m. today, it said. A cold shutdown describes a reactor’s cooling system operating at atmospheric pressure and below 93 degrees Celsius, according to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
Dilemma
“Tepco is in a dilemma,” Ito said. As Tepco maintains water injection at a high rate, more radioactive water will be accumulated in the basements of plant buildings, he said.
About 95,000 cubic meters, which is enough to fill 38 Olympic-sized swimming pools, of highly radioactive water may still be in the basements, even after the company has processed more than 220,000 cubic meters of contaminated water, according to Tepco’s latest estimate on Feb. 1.
Tepco replaced coolant piping on Jan. 26 to improve reliability of equipment following water leaks caused by freezing temperatures, Taichi Okazaki, a spokesman for the utility, said by phone today. This may have led to insufficient cooling water reaching inside the reactor, according to Tepco.
Water Leaks
Tepco found a total of 28 water leaks between Jan. 28 and Feb. 3, according to the utility. The average temperature in Namie town near the wrecked plant in January was 0.5 degrees Celsius, compared with the 2.1 degrees Celsius January average between 1981 and 2010, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency’s data.
No traces of xenon 135, which is associated with nuclear fission, were found when Tepco conducted a gas sampling of the reactor yesterday, the company said in an e-mailed statement late yesterday.
In November, Tepco said it detected xenon, signs of nuclear fission, in gases taken from the No. 2 reactor, raising concerns that radiation emissions may increase. Tepco later announced the xenon was caused by “natural” nuclear fission and the plant isn’t in a critical state.
--Editors: Teo Chian Wei, Peter Langan
To contact the reporter on this story: Tsuyoshi Inajima in Tokyo at tinajima@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Langan at plangan@bloomberg.net
Volcanoes do not inject all their volume right into the stratosphere. Cleverly placed welsbach materials burned along with jet fuel at over 30000 feet can do the job fairly cheaply. This is not mystery science. You see contrails expanding and filling up the sky every time there is upwelling air; pre-frontal. Jet fuel contains aluminum oxide which makes it burn more explosively. It just takes a little extra aluminum and you are geoengineering.
Your probably right. Talk to you later.
Jesse
Posted on February 6, 2012
February 6, 2012 – MASSACHUSETTS – Nearly 130 dolphins have beached themselves on Cape Cod in the last three weeks, with 92 dying in what’s become “the single largest stranding” in at least two decades in the Northeast, the International Fund for Animal Welfare reported Monday. On Sunday, four more dolphins were stranded along Cape Cod’s hook-shaped peninsula and were quickly helped back to sea. The Massachusetts peninsula sees many dolphin strandings each year, but the 129 since Jan. 12 is typically about what rescuers see over an entire year, based on records that go back to 1999, IFAW marine mammal rescue manager Katie Moore told msnbc.com. “This event started on the 12th and is still continuing,” she added at a press conference on Monday, noting that rescuers from IFAW and other stranding networks were deployed in “anticipation of more dolphins coming in this afternoon.” Most of the dolphins have appeared to be in good health, adding to the mystery of why so many have come ashore. Dolphins are known to strand in groups due to their tight social structure, but given the large numbers this year, other factors such as weather and tides are being investigated. “I don’t know,” Moore said when asked about causes. “It pains me to say those three words.” Asked if climate change might be a factor, Moore said she couldn’t rule that out or in. As for the possibility of sonar or other human-made sounds disrupting the dolphins, she said no known sources existed inside Cape Cod. Initial results of studies on nine of the dead dolphins “do not indicate any pattern,” she noted. This stranding “is not only out of the ordinary,” she said, “but it takes a huge toll on our resources. It’s hard labor.” -MSNBC
SFP of reactor 3 and reactor 5 are heated as well
Posted by Mochizuki on February 5th, 2012 · 6 Comments
Following up this article ..Attention : Reactor 2 is still being heated
It’s not only reactor 2, which is being heated.
According to the plant parameter data of Tepco, the temperature of reactor 3 has been increasing since 1/30/2012.
Also, the temperature of reactor 5 has been going up since 2/4/2012. So far, no explanation has been given from Tepco or Japanese government.
PhilipUpNorth says:
February 6, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Lori Mochizuki, Many thanks for your wonderful and needful reporting of the Fukushima crime against humanity, perpetrated by the nuclear power industry. My heart goes out to you and to all the people of your homeland for your trouble. I saw your video, and am relieved that you are now in Europe, which is slightly more safe than Japan. I hope you feel better soon, and hope that the radiation you were exposed to in Japan has caused you little permanent harm. Know that you are now a part of a historic Japanese Diaspora, the widescale abandonment of the Japanese homeland in the aftermath of the poisoning of Japan by Temco and their appologists in the Japanese government. Thanks to you Japanese for your many contributions to civilization over the thousands of years of your history. And good fortune to you and your countrymen as you begin to abandon your poisoned homeland en masse to seek a new life throughout less poisoned parts of the earth. I will send you a contribution as soon as the employment situation improves here in the USA. Much love to you in the meantime.
Of course, there will be no “cold shutdown” at Fukushima. Temperatures will continue to go up and down as criticalities come and go. Removal of the former corium and cooling pools is now impossible. The reactors need to be filled with concrete. The containments need to be filled with concrete. The reactor buildings need to be filled with concrete. The tunnels to the generator buildings need to be filled with concrete. The spent fuel pools need to be filled with concrete. New tunnels need to be dug under the reactor buildings, down to or below the water table, and filled with concrete one tunnel after another, until there is as much concrete under the reactor buildings as the reactors were tall. The gravel that went into the concrete to build those new apartment buildings should have gone instead into the casket that will house those former reactor buildings. There is plenty of contaminated gravel in Fukushima to make the concrete to entomb these reactors.
All other atomic power plants worldwide should get the same treatment. Put a big scull and crossed bones on the caskets to warn future generations against the use of atomic energy. We should all resolve to begin to live more simply, with less need for power. We should all begin to use wind, water, and solar for the energy we need. We must bring fuel cell technologies into our homes as backup for wind and solar. No nukes, ever. No new nukes! Let’s do this. It’s the right thing to do.
Published: February 6th, 2012 at 2:11 pm ET
By ENENews
Title: Plan developed to clean up highly radioactive Hanford spill
Source: Tri-City Herald
Author: By Annette Cary
Date: Feb 6, 2012
Hanford officials have settled on a plan to clean up what may be the most highly radioactive spill at the nuclear reservation.
It depends on calling back into service the 47-year-old, oversized hot cell where the spill occurred to protect workers from the radioactive cesium and strontium that leaked through the hot cell to the soil below.
Radioactivity in the contaminated soil, which is about 1,000 feet from the Columbia River, has been measured at 8,900 rad per hour [89 sieverts per hour]. Direct exposure for a few minutes would be fatal, according to Washington Closure. [...]
In the 1980s, cesium and strontium spilled inside the hot cell, according to a 1993 report that referenced the spill. Germany needed a heat source to use for tests of a repository for radioactive waste, which emits heat, and the cesium and strontium were being fabricated into the sources.
“This was concentrated material,” said Mark French, the Department of Energy’s project director for Hanford cleanup along the Columbia River. [...]
It migrated down in a open square shape, with the worst contamination down to five or six feet deep, McBride said. There is not evidence that it has reached the ground water which is about 54 feet below the ground there and about 42 feet below the bottom of the hot cell [...]
Source: Birdhairjp
Date: Feb 6, 2012
On 5 Feb 2012, I measured radiation around Kashiwa High School, Kashiwa city, Chiba pref. Japan.
The monitor indicates 0.29 micro Sievert per hour in air at chest height, 6.20 on road side near a bicycle parking lot for students.
The monitoring place is approx. 200 km from Fukushima Nuclear power plant, and 25 or 30 km for the center of Tokyo.
Measuring instrument is made of Ukraine, ECOTEST MKS-05.
I don't know how comment #281 comment came out looking like it did, but I apoligize. Maybe too many mist.
Jesse
Man, Trig? Those were the good old days LOL, where I used to do some home work and skip the rest, study for a little while before tests and finish with an A. I'm in Calculus with analytic geometry 3 this semester, and the tests are freaking intense despite me doing all the homework.
I got a C in Calc 2 because I was often choking under stress and pressure during tests repeatedly even though I did well in the homework and studied plenty. Calculus 3 is stuff like vector calculus and 3 dimensional analysis, somehow its even more terrifying than Calc 2, yet interesting at the same time because there is a lot of high level science application that is very useful.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 7 2012
=====================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Four (945 hPa) located at 18.5S 164.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 14 knots. Position good based on multisatellite enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface observations.
Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center
Storm Force Winds
==================
65 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
160 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Overall organization has improved significantly over the past 12 hours with eye forming. System remains in a region of upper diffluence enhanced by a trough just to the west. Outflow remains good. Cyclone is being steered to the east-southeast by strong west northwest steering and lies in an area of low vertical wind shear.
Dvorak analysis based on ow eye with lg surround
Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS
Models generally agree on an east southeastward movement in the next 24 hours.
Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 19.3S 167.0E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 20.5S 169.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 23.6S 172.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
18:00 PM FST February 7 2012
===================================
* A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 21.4S 169.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 22 knots. Position fair based on GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.
Storm Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
Organization has improved significantly past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands wrapping around the low level circulation center from northwest to southwest. Eye evident in past visible imagery has become cloud filled in last 6 hours. System lies south of 250 HPA diffluent region. Outflow restricted to west but remains good elsewhere. CIMMS analysis indicates the system lies in a low to moderately sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean flow into an area of increasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 27C and expected to decrease on projected path.
Dvorak analysis based on 0.8 wrap yielding
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS
Global models maintains a southeast movement without further development.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 24.4S 165.6W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 27.2S 160.6W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Cyril will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
*note no more special weather warnings will be issued for Niue
This is from the Fiji Met Service website, and gives a closer look @ Jasmine's forecast track. It's not as bad as it looks on the wunderground map.... due to scale, I'd say. Luckily current Cyril was a mere disturbance as it passed through this area last week, though it did seem to bring quite a bit of rain with it.
Looks like the Solomons and Vanuatu are going to get the worst of this over the next 24 hours....
Weather forecasters say a cyclone heading towards Vanuatu may pass close to shore and not hit the country directly.
A yellow cyclone alert is in force ahead of the cyclone's arrival on Tuesday night.
But Neville Koop from the Nadraki weather office in Suva told Radio Australia there is uncertainty surrounding the cyclone's exact path.
"It may avoid the islands directly and stay somewhat to the west of the southern islands," he said.
Cyclone Cyril
Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Cyril is north of Tonga, bringing with it strong winds.
Cyril is located about 740 kilometres east of Fiji, and heading east, south east.
It is also expected to affect flood-stricken Fiji.
A cyclone alert has been declared across most of Tonga, with high seas expected in Fiji.
I could not see how Cyril could affect Fiji, if Cyril is 740km's east of Fiji and moving further east. For Cyril to affect Fiji it would have to travel west.
Here is what I see.
Yeah, they may get the outer bands but I don't think it would be a full impact.
Incredible.
Look how it jumped from 70kts sustained, straight to 100kts sustained and STUCK THERE, and the change happened within 15 minutes.
That must be some of the most rapid intensification EVER.
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