My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor
Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.
Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.
Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.
Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.
Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.
Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
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Sixth cyclone hits Madagascar; impact "like tsunami"
Successive cyclones bring Madagascar to its knees
IRIN
April 3, 2007
JOHANNESBURG, 3 April 2007 (IRIN) - As the sixth mayor cyclone to hit Madagascar this season tears across the northeast of the impoverished Indian ocean island, a relentless succession of natural disasters has left nearly half a million people in desperate need of humanitarian assistance.
HOW TO HELP MADAGASCAR
care.org
medair.org
unicef.org
Please specify that donations should go to Madagascar relief!
Tropical cyclone Jaya made landfall on Madagascar's northeastern coast on Tuesday on a projected trajectory that will see it rage through areas already devastated by cyclone Indlala just over two weeks ago.
"This is the worst cyclone season in the recorded history of the country," Dusan Zupka, the Senior Emergency Coordination Officer assigned to Madagascar by the United Nations (UN) Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Geneva, told IRIN.
According to the latest UN situation report, almost 130,000 people were "directly affected by cyclone Indlala" and "at least 88 people were killed and 30 disappeared, with about 30,000 left homeless or deprived of all their belongings."
Cyclone aftermath in northern Madagascar. © Episcopal relief and development
Natural disasters have been tormenting the island since the end of last year; Indlala followed in the wake of five destructive cyclones and unprecedented flooding. "Since December 2006, approximately 450,000 people have become the victims of natural disasters all over Madagascar," said a UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) statement.
"If we cannot speak of a tsunami here in Madagascar, we can at least say that the affects of the natural disasters are somewhat similar to that in the aftermath of the [2004 Asian] tsunami," said Bruno Maes, the UNICEF Representative in Madagascar.
"Considering the low level of human development [in Madagascar], the consequences are huge," Zupka said. Madagascar already faces serious challenges: More than 85 percent of its 19.1 million people live on less than US$2 a day, according to the 2006 United Nations Human Development report, and food insecurity and malnutrition are chronic, particularly in the drought-prone south.
"Due to the flooding, tens of thousands of hectares of rice, the basic food source for the Malagasy, have also been destroyed," the UNICEF statement said. "With the increased food insecurity and shortage, there is the risk of increased malnutrition."
Access to affected areas is a major obstacle to the delivery of humanitarian assistance, and although assessments are underway, immediate needs are critical.
Communication infrastructure, roads, schools and health centres have been severely damaged; provision of food, potable water, shelter, medicines, sanitation facilities, dealing with waterborne diseases and finding alternative means of transportation - like helicopters - until roads are fixed, are essential.
Officials have warned that in-country supplies are drained. "We are overstretched in terms of human capacity and financial resources," Zupka said, adding that international donors had been generous and that "all UN agencies have boosted capacity [in Madagascar].
Zupka expressed concern over the lack of international media attention the emergency in Madagascar had received, considering the extent of the multiple disasters and the vulnerability of the island and its people. "It is striking that so little attention is being paid to a crisis that affects so many that are already vulnerable because of poverty," he commented.
With the cyclone season continuing until the end of April or early May, expectations are that Jaya will not be the last disaster to strike the island.
Hurricanes hurt conservation efforts in Madagascar
Madagascar needs relief help after deadly cyclones
Heard about that a few years ago, but it was in early development.
they are trying to advance the 3-d printer technology to the point that the printer can print "most" of the components to a copy of itself. i.e. self-replication, or very nearly so.
Faster forward motion also maximizes the inland wind gust potential relative to storm movement.
I think you are right there. It seems there is dry air coming in from the south east. I hate the upside down storms. You have to reverse your thinking. It is the same when storms in the Northern Hemisphere begin entrain dry air from the North west.
It doesn't take a major hurricane to produce flash flooding.
Preexisting saturated grounds from Funso's rains could indeed exacerbate the flood potential there.
Even if the water was upwelled, it has had time to warm a couple degrees. I'd wager the subsurface has, too.
hopefully
the dry air takes this evil vision from our sight
Indeed. Nature doesn't give a you know what about our plights.
Ivan caused heavy damage in Madagascar, leaving severe flooding and wind damage. In Sainte Marie Island, the worst hit area, 90% of the infastructure was destroyed, and 70% of the structures were destroyed. On mainland Madegascar, over 400,000 acres (1,600 km2) of cultivated crops were destroyed, leaving hundreds of families without food. In addition, severe flooding and high winds in Toamasina left the entire city without electricity or drinkable water. In all, over 330,000 people were left homeless, and the storm caused 93 deaths.Cyclone Ivan moved ashore on Madagascar near the city of Toamasina on February 17, producing winds of 125 mph (200 km/h).[19] According to local news agencies, Sainte Marie island off the coast of Madagascar was the highest affected area, with 9 people killed and 90 % of the island's infrastructure destroyed, including a hotel which collapsed.[20] On the island, all flights were suspended or canceled during the storm, and most areas were left without electric power.[20] Also, 75 percent of the structures on the island were completely destroyed.[21]
On mainland Madagascar, 100,000 acres (400 km2) of rice crops were destroyed, and 300,000 acres (1,200 km2) of other cultivated crops were destroyed.[22] Because of this, many families had little or no food to eat.[22] In Analanjirofo, the worst hit region on the mainland Madagascar, 80,000 people were left homeless, and most of the schools, houses and other structures were lost as a result of the flooding and high wind.[22] Another major aspect of the damage there was the Antaratasy bridge, a connector between the region of Atsinanana and cities to the north, which was completely destroyed, isolating several people from their families.[23] Its collapse, in addition to the extensive damage to communications, made it difficult or impossible to contact people who may have been affected by Ivan.[23]
In the city of Toamasina, all water and electricity were cut off as a result of the storm.[23] High winds downed trees and power lines, and rising flood waters were the focus of concern.[23] In the city and surrounding areas, 31 cases of cholera were reported along the Zambeze river valley as a result of the storm.[24]
In the region of Alaotra Mangoro Region, almost 23,000 people were in need of assistance, and flooding caused extensive damage.[25] In the Analamanga Region, 18,000 people were reported to be left without shelter, and in the Atsinanana Region, up to 13,000 people were left homeless.[25] In total, 190,000 people were homeless as a result of the cyclone[26] and a total of 93 fatalities occurred.[27]
Obviously, but with Cat 3 sustained winds, damage to all vegetation will be severe, thus exacerbating mudslides by removing more vegetation that could potentially anchor the soil. Madagascar had another major cyclone several years back (Ivan). A buddy of mine was doing his PhD work over there. Damage was catastrophic. Madagascar is probably one of the two worst places in the world for mudslides (the other is probably Haiti). Both are mountainous, and both have been stripped of vegetation by inhabitants looking for fuel-wood.
We always need support for helping others.
Its how its done, people helping people.
Portlight awarded Reeve Foundation Quality of Life Grant
738 Patrap "Im still trying to determine,one HTML say Africa, the other Madagascar so Im trying to get the info straight"
Hotel Adrialana Beach located on Nosy Be Island (NOS) off the northwest coast of Madagascar that Xyrus2000 linked to earlier.
The red line between the two unlabeled dots connects Giovanna's latest two center positions as reported by the JointTyphoonWarningCenter.
TMM is Toamasina. And TNR is Antananarivo.
The distance between TMM and TNR is ~134miles(216kilometres).
Technically, these "disasters" wouldn't be such at all were it not for human invasion. Hurricanes are nature's way of moving heat from the tropics to the polar regions. Damage and deaths notwithstanding, we need hurricanes; the very physics of our universe demands it. If humans never existed, neither would these events, insofar as there would be no negative consequence to them.
Of course, that's asking too much as we need to inhabit to survive. Nature, however, doesn't care, and will continue to give us the middle finger the rest of our existence.
One can feel the imminence in this shot.
/master_frame_fix.html?http://www.webcamplaza.net /continents/beachcams.
Just copy the picture and "flip" it vertically in a paint program.
the land masses will look goofy, but you'll be able to read troughs and ridges easily, since it will look just like the N. Hemisphere.
Fair enough.
Not quite a rainband, but an outflow boundary for sure.
next 180 days.
It will be more devastating than the credit crisis of 2008.
For most people, it will hit them like a brick wall.
It will touch Americans harder and deeper than anything
else we've seen since the Great Depression.
Webcam
Solar heating during the day causes the air column (particularly above the planetary boundary layer (PBL) where the low level atmosphere experiences little warming due to the stable ocean temperature) to expand, causing surface pressures to drop. During the night time, the air above the PBL cools, while the low level atmosphere below the PBL remains warm due to the ocean's fairly constant temperature (over the course of a day...obviously it can vary a bit throughout the year). As the low level atmosphere becomes increasingly warm relative to the mid level atmosphere (mid level cools due to the absence of solar heating, low level stays warm from conduction with the Ocean), it becomes lighter and begins to rise, again lowering pressures.
However, keep in mind, the convective cycle is diurnal. It has a peak around sunrise and a low around sunset. Therefore, tropical systems experience the most strengthening/intensifying during the nighttime as the convective cycle heads toward it's maximum around sunrise.
Awaken tonight
I'm seriously thinking bout stocking up and buying MREs while supplies last
crisis3.com
Being prepared for any Weather event, Apocalypse, Trial verdict, Hockey Loss, College Title Win, one needs a plan and supplies.
Calamity never favors the unprepared.
What have you got so far?
CHICHIGALPA, Nicaragua -- Jesus Ignacio Flores started working when he was 16, laboring long hours on construction sites and in the fields of his country's biggest sugar plantation.
Three years ago his kidneys started to fail and flooded his body with toxins. He became too weak to work, wracked by cramps, headaches and vomiting.
On Jan. 19 he died on the porch of his house. He was 51. His withered body was dressed by his weeping wife, embraced a final time, then carried in the bed of a pickup truck to a grave on the edge of Chichigalpa, a town in Nicaragua's sugar-growing heartland, where studies have found more than one in four men showing symptoms of chronic kidney disease.
A mysterious epidemic is devastating the Pacific coast of Central America, killing more than 24,000 people in El Salvador and Nicaragua since 2000 and striking thousands of others with chronic kidney disease at rates unseen virtually anywhere else. Scientists say they have received reports of the phenomenon as far north as southern Mexico and as far south as Panama.
Last year it reached the point where El Salvador's health minister, Dr. Maria Isabel Rodriguez, appealed for international help, saying the epidemic was undermining health systems.
Wilfredo Ordonez, who has harvested corn, sesame and rice for more than 30 years in the Bajo Lempa region of El Salvador, was hit by the chronic disease when he was 38. Ten years later, he depends on dialysis treatments he administers to himself four times a day.
"This is a disease that comes with no warning, and when they find it, it's too late," Ordonez said as he lay on a hammock on his porch.
Many of the victims were manual laborers or worked in sugar cane fields that cover much of the coastal lowlands. Patients, local doctors and activists say they believe the culprit lurks among the agricultural chemicals workers have used for years with virtually none of the protections required in more developed countries. But a growing body of evidence supports a more complicated and counterintuitive hypothesis.
A good plan and a Inland rally point.
Do you ever post anything positive? Tell us how good Rick Perry is as Govenor!
First and maybe the only touch of winter for many in Oklahoma tonight.
(wu regional radar removed)
Paraphrased translation provided by N.K., a concerned citizen in Japan
What follows is a summary of a series blog posts about mysterious radioactive black materials found in and around Minami-Soma City, Fukushima Prefecture, about 25km from the plant.
Black materials looking like sand or powder were found in the Haramachi-ku area of Minami-Soma City.
A similar substance was also found in nearby Soma City.
The materials can reportedly be found many place in Minami-Soma city and Soma city areas.
Here are several recent measurements:
Jan. 27: Measured values in Haramachi-ku using the Inspector +
901 cpm: gamma ray only, with WT Plate, 1cm above GND
13,380 cpm: gamma + beta + alpha, without WTP, 1cm above GND
10,330 cpm: gamma + beta + alpha, with XEROX paper, 1cm above GND
This means that XEROX paper cuts off 3,050 cpm alpha-ray, so the quite strong alpha-ray is radiated from the materials.
Feb. 4: The materials could not be found at Fukushima City, 60km from the plant. Only gamma-ray were strong.
Feb. 6: Normal sand in the area mainly contains Cs134 and Cs137
Gamma-ray: 959 cpm
Gamma + beta + alpha: 2,146 cpm
Feb. 6: Black material in sand
gamma-ray: 3,274 cpm
gamma + beta + alpha: 18,370 cpm
Radiation of the black materials were very strong when compared to the normal-colored sand. The materials have unbelievable beta + alpha.
Feb. 9: Piece of paper cuts shields 7,230 cpm
gamma + beta + alpha: 31,680 cpm, without the paper
gamma + beta + alpha: 24,450 cpm, with the paper
TERRA MKS-05 measures only gamma and beta-ray, XEROX paper did not make much difference
11.53 micro S/h: gamma-ray only, without paper
17.56 micro S/h: gamma + beta, without paper
16.98 micro S/h: gamma + beta, with paper
3,000Bq/kg from Japanese radish
Posted by Mochizuki on February 12th, 2012 · No Comments
Fukushima local government measured 3,000 Bq/Kg of cesium from dried Japanese radish produced in Fukushima.
They have already sold 102 bags of them (50g per bag) at 5 street shops, Fukushima prefecture requested Japan agricultural cooperatives to pick them up and stop distributing.
It was sold from 1/14 to 2/10. The shops are, Azuma, Kuroiwa, Shimizu, Omori, and Yanome.
It's raining in TX
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)
I know! This guy is even more pessimistic than me! :/
Will it print me a Cadillac?
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