My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor
Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.
Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.
Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.
Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.
Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.
Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 — Blog Index
0430Z Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
I laughed at this. Probably too hard.
What dry air there was is getting pushed out very fast it appears....
6.7 / 915.7mb/132.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.4 6.8
Dvorak scale calls out for a 150 mph storm and raw Ts at borderline category 5.
Geez, hope the people realize the severity of the storm.
Agreed.
According to RitaEvac, the world will end in 6 months. It will ALWAYS end in 6 months.
Unless a republican gets elected. Then it won't end until the democrats get re-elected. In 6 months.
One can feel the imminence in this shot.
That webcam is pointing NorthNorthWestward. HotelAndilanaBeach webcams
The sky appears even more ominous when looking SouthSouthEastward toward the resort...
...and more toward Giovanna; the center being a bit less than 400miles(644kilometres)SouthEastward
And it's not threatening the FirstWorld or its major suppliers : nobody's covering it.
The function of the news media is to generate advertising revenue.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 13 2012
================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (937 hPa) located at 18.4S 52.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.
Hurricane Force Winds
========================
50 NM radius from the center
Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM radius from the center
Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant
Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 175 NM in the southwestern quadrant
Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/W0.5/6 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 18.8S 50.2E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 19.5S 47.2E - Depression sur Terre
48 HRS: 22.3S 41.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.4S 38.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
Additional Information
=====================
0333z TRMM microwave picture shows that an eyewall replacement cycle is ongoing. It was already visible on radar of la reunion for a few hours. Average DT on 6 hours is 5.5. Internal winds fields might a bit change with this ongoing cycle (weaker intensity but storm force winds radius larger).
System is now undergoing the steering influence of the mid-level ridge rebuilding in its south. This deep mid-level ridge would steer the system on a westward to west southwestward track today and then southwestward Tuesday as the the mid-level ridge shifts to the southeast of the cyclone.
Later this afternoon, Giovanna should undergo stronger easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. The impact of this increase with a shear that is in the same direction than the cyclone motion is difficult to appreciate for a system like Giovanna with a self-induced outflow. However with the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle and this constraint, it is likely that intensity might continue to weaken before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar tonight.
The expected landfall is within a 80 km radius from Andovoranto. Weather conditions are expected to worsen rapidly today within the potential landfall area. All inhabitants are invited to closely follow the closing of this dangerous cyclone.
Giovanna should be back over waters of the Mozambique Channel Wednesday within a favorable atmospheric environment with a decreasing easterly shear as the system will move closer to an upper level ridge. According to latest ECMWF run that now suggests a rapid re-intensification, the forecast intensity is again upgraded.
The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
2012FEB13
070000
T6.6 CI
912.5
129.6 knots
T5.9 Final Dvorak
T7.3 Adjusted
T7.3 Raw
EYE Scene
Weakening ON
Rapid Dissipation OFF
-18.52 south
-52.48 east
Praying for those down in Madagascar.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #18
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 13 2012
===================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (992 hPa) located at 22.0S 176.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.
Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Organization has decreased in the past 24 hours. Cloud tops warming Past 6 hours. Deep convection has decreased near the centre in the last 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine lies to the east of 250hpa Trough and south of an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Good outflow to the south and east but restricted elsewhere. CIMMS analysis indicate system is steered northeastward by a southwesterly Deep layer mean flow into an area of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 27C.
Dvorak analysis based on approximately 0.40 wrap, yielding DT=2.5. Final Dvorak based on DT, met and PT agree. CI=3.0 due to CI rules.
Dvorak: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS
Most global models agree on a initial northeast movement and recurving it southwestward with gradual weakening in the next 24 hours.
Forecast and Intensity:
=======================
12 HRS: 21.2S 176.2W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.7S 176.1W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.1S 176.9W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Long range GFS is going to cause me to lose my mind...
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...
UNCERTAINTIES PRESENT FOR THE DAY 3 PERIOD GROW FOR DAY 4...AS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT RICHER GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURN MAY BECOME
CUT OFF FROM THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES REGION.
AND POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC APPEARS LOW...AS A SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC...AND SECONDARY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLY COMMENCES TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A STRONGLY SHEARED
REGIME WITH AT LEAST WEAK TO MODEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/ GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STALLING SURFACE FRONT NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD INCLUDE SOME RISK
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA...BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY APPEAR BELOW THE
MINIMUM THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA /EQUIVALENT
30 PERCENT DAY 3/.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/9/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 52.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 937 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 320 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 200 SW: 260 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/13 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/14 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 47.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
36H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
48H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 36.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 35.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5 ET CI=6.0
0333Z TRMM MW PICTURE SHOWS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS
ONGOING. IT WAS ALREADY VISIBLE ON RADAR OF LA REUNION FOR A FEW HOURS.
AVERAGE DT ON 6 HOURS IS 5.5. INTERNAL WINDS FIELDS MIGHT A BIT CHANGEWITH THIS ONGOING CYCLE (WEAKER INTENSITY BUT STORM FORCE WINDS
RADIUS LARGER).
SYSTEM IS NOW UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MI-LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDING IN ITS SOUTH. THIS DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE WOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TODAY AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TUESDAY AS THE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO STRONGER EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURES. THE IMPACT OF THIS INCREASE WITH A SHEAR THAT IS IN THE
SAME DIRECTION THAN THE CYCLONE MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO APPRECIATE FOR A
SYSTEM LIKE GIOVANNA WITH A SELF-INDUCED OUTFLOW. HOWEVER WITH THE
ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THIS CONSTRAINT, IT IS LIKELY
THAT INTENSITY MIGHT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON THE
EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR TONIGHT.
THE EXPECTED LANDFALL IS WITHIN A 80 KM RADIUS FROM ANDOVORANTO.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN RAPIDLY TODAY WITHIN THE
POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA. ALL INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE CLOSING OF THIS DANGEROUS CYCLONE.
GIOVANNA SHOULD BE BACK OVER WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A
DECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. ACCORDING TO LATEST ECMWF RUN THAT NOW SUGGESTS A RAPID
RE-INTENSIFICATION, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS AGAIN UPGRADED.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING OUT OF A PERSISTENT STRONG MID
LATITUDE PACIFIC JET...BEFORE SPLITTING OFF INTO A COUPLE OF
LINGERING DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
THIS INCLUDES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL IMPULSES DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/ROCKIES...BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ONE OF THESE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING OUT OF THE PLATEAU
REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY COINCIDE
WITH THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. SO
THE IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL TEND TO LIFT OUT FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE ROCKIES...BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE INFLUENCE AND EXTENT OF NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGHING EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
...EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AS THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG MODELS CONCERNING THE
TIMING AND MANNER IN WHICH THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OF THE ROCKIES...AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS RESULT IN AN UNCERTAIN
CONVECTIVE FORECAST. THE 13/00Z NAM AND SREF SUGGEST THAT
DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
FOCUSED MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...PERHAPS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE 13/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF APPEAR TO FAVOR AN AREA FROM NORTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GIVEN THE RELATIVE SIMILARITIES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND
CONSISTENCIES FROM THEIR PRIOR RUNS...THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS AT
LEAST A BIT MORE PROBABLE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO
OUTLOOK SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF...ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...WOULD SEEM TO OFFER GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND
THE EVOLUTION OF AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 02/13/2012
Good Morning
Hoping those areas of sleet/snow ahead of the main precipitation mass will saturate the atmosphere some ahead of schedule.(So I can get more snow!)
And pray for the people of Madagascar, Giovanna will probably pass near the capital.
Interesting.
The pressure estimate dropped so much, like 24mb since late last night, even as the wind really only came up 5mph.
But that estimate is in the category 5 range for pressure, In the atlantic, but I think with a basin adjustment is exactly on the borderline of 4 and 5.
But the raw T-numbers are cat 5 range too.
I really didnt expect the pressure to drop 24mb.
Still think it's getting too close to land to keep intensifying, but well, I'm reminded of Andrew unfortunately, if the pressure estimate is correct, it's actually stronger than Andrew right now.
I have a bad feeling now, because if this turns out to be one of those storms that keeps intensifying right up to landfall, it could be bad indeed.
Do you have the link to the graphic?
I,m glad someone got the rain. I had .28, better than nothing. I hope this weekend system plans out.Way to dry with all this freezing temps.not a good situation with fire. Had a fire in west Pasco on saturday.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL CONTINUING THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AT
LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...NEW GFS RUN HAS
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT
DOWN TO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AND HAS IT DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH
TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY SUNDAY. WL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IF THE TREND
CONTINUES HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN COULD BE INDICATED IN FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES.
Dig a hole in the oceanic plate at the bottom of the Challenger Deep and bury it there.
The plate moves 7 inches per year, which means it would subduct under pretty quickly under the other plate, maximizing shielding, but would not move fast enough to encounter melted rock for many thousands of years, maybe even millions. At 7 inches per year, it would take 9000 years to move 1 mile. The plate would need to move several hundred miles before the radioactive material encountered melting conditions.
If the models hold up then C and N FL should get a lot of rain starting Friday and continuing thru the weekend. S FL however may not get much from this at all as this front appears it wants to hang up right over C FL.
strike that. Google earth was acting screwy. Looks like there is a small city that could be in the path.
As others have noted, Madagascar is a hilly island that has been severely deforested (satellite images of the island are very depressing), so the many inches of rain that are expected to be dumped across the island have an alarmingly high chance of causing a large loss of life.
Viewing: 851 - 901
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 — Blog Index