My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor
Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.
Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.
Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.
Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.
Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.
Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
Reader Comments
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... Very cold weekend in store as Arctic air mass arrives...
A cold front will usher an Arctic air mass into the region this
evening that will result in significantly colder temperatures for
the arklamiss region. The recent warm spell has maintained average
daily temperatures well above normal with highs frequently in the
60s and 70s over the past month or so. However a dramatic departure
in temperatures is in store beginning tonight and continuing through
the weekend.
Locations along and north of the Natchez trace will see lows drop
below freezing tonight with readings over northwest zones
plummeting into the mid 20s. Strong north wind will develop behind
the front and increasing wind speeds will produce wind chills from
10 to 15 degrees over northeast Louisiana... southeast Arkansas and
north Mississippi late tonight and early Saturday morning. During
the day Saturday the combination of Arctic air and north wind speeds
from 15 to 25 mph... with frequent higher gusts... will keep
temperatures relatively cold with afternoon highs ranging from the
mid 30s in the northwest to the mid to upper 40s in the southeast.
Wind speeds will begin to subside Saturday night... allowing
temperatures to cool quickly and drop into the teens and lower 20s
across the area by sunrise Sunday.
Persons planning outdoor activities this weekend should be prepared
for significantly colder temperatures than we have seen recently and
gusty northerly winds. Actions may be needed to protect plants that
may be susceptible to the cold.
la nina fading yet again. models say no more return from la nina for a WHILE now models are debating if we will get a weak el nino or neutral condtions. this year looks similar to 2009 when after neutral la nina reformed. the difference is that ours is much stronger than 2009 and is weakining at a slower rate. the ECMWF model nailed the 2009 forecast by predicting an el nino out of all the models. it showed a 0.1 reading in the 3.4 reigon for may in its january forecast. its calling for 0 for our may forecast. every month pay attention to what that models will show because it is very good in predicting what will form after decaying la ninas. im looking at the evidence and id say we will get neutral more than el nino. 13-16 TS 7-9 Hurricanes and 3-5 majors are the usual numbers for enso neutral
He thinks destroying her stuff or publicly humiliating her is going to make her respect him.
Kids say negative things about their parents all the time, and most of it is probably true.
When she's a senior in high school and needs to write a 25 page thesis for English class, I guess he'll be forced to buy her a new computer.
Twenty five pages. Wow. I remember when I thought that was a lot. I could probably write 25 pages of a short story or an argumentive essay in one sitting now. *end rabbit trail*
it is not going to snow in atlanta! until next winter if then
I have Azalea bushes in bloom surrounding the entire house and backyard on 2 acres.........I would need a huge pest control tent to give them cover. Gonna have to let them go unfortunately........ :)
There is a chance of a mix of rain and snow for Atlantic Tuesday and Tuesday night.
That was actually educational :P
But it's still the DGEX....
LOL!! Fortunately for me, my Azaleas are not blooming yet, but my tulips and daffodils are just about to. Had this happen a few years back... All my flowers were in full bloom in March, then out of nowhere we had a snow storm that killed all of them back for the year. :(
You mean it is going to be 14 in Miami????
Thats departure from average there old man. LOL
They eye filled in, convection weakened and got more ragged.
The image 3 hours ago was this:
OLD?? I know I am just trying to get Nea to reword his entry. :)
Then change it Post Haste! LOL
img src="
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I agree, but it's still very strong.
(Giovanna a few hours ago)
Link
GFS says 0.21 inches of snow, changing to rain for a few hours. so maybe some falling, but no accumilations :)
yes it is. I was rereading my old books and that one "just" had to be put up here. :)
I don't think we have to worry about severe weather much, even if very strong cells develop dynamics look pretty meager and any heavier convection will likely be elevated. The result would be mainly only heavy rain and lighting with some gusty winds.
However, PWAT's are quite high and will rise more into the night, that combined with good ascent from the jet streak and convergence from the developing surface low could certainly warrant a good shot at pretty heavy down pours in some spots. That being said don't get thinking its just going to be a light rain event only. I do expect some heavy down pours to be around, but I don't expect any accumulation to be too impressive due to the fast progression of the system.
Southeast shift of the snow over DC and Baltimore in the 18Z NAM run!!! 1-2 inches now forecasted!
Posted on February 10, 2012
February 10, 2012 – ITALY – Stocks added to losses Friday, on track to logging their worst session this year, after stalled debt negotiations in Greece, some disappointing economic news and reports that S&P downgraded a handful of Italian banks. In the latest round of disappointment from the euro zone, ratings agency S&P downgraded 34 of 37 Italian banks, citing worries over the banking industry and economic risks in the country. Euro zone finance ministers said the debt-ridden nation will need to make further cuts in order to be granted bailout funds. Meanwhile, Greek workers went on strike, protesting against the austerity measures. Meanwhile, Greece’s Deputy Foreign Minister Marilisa Xenogiannakopoulou, a member of the socialist party, resigned in protest against the tough bailout terms, according to the state television. Adding to woes, Chinese January trade data fell the most since the depths of the financial crisis, signaling further demand decline. –CNBC
Posted on February 10, 2012
February 10, 2012 – BAJA, California – A team of geologists from the U.S., Mexico and China are using light detection and ranging (LiDAR) laser altimetry to study how an earthquake can change a landscape. In particular, the geologists want to know more about the magnitude 7.2 earthquake that struck April 4, 2010, near Mexicali in northern Mexico. Airborne LiDAR equipment, which bounces a stream of laser pulses off the ground, can measure surface features to within a few centimeters. The researchers were able to make a detailed scan of the affected area over about 360 square kilometers in less than three days, they report in the February 10 issue of the journal Science. In the above image, blue shows where ground surface moved down whereas red indicates upward movement compared with the previous survey. Some changes brought about by the quake are readily visible from the ground, such as a 1.5-meter clifflike ridge created when part of a hillside abruptly moved up and sideways. But the LiDAR survey also revealed some features that could not easily be detected otherwise, Oskin reports, such as a warping of the ground surface above the Indiviso Fault, which runs beneath agricultural fields along the Colorado River floodplain. The 2010 Mexicali earthquake did not occur on a major fault, such as the San Andreas, but rather ran through a series of smaller fractures in Earth’s crust. The new LiDAR survey shows how seven of these small faults came together to cause a major quake. –Scientific American
Posted on February 10, 2012
February 10, 2012 – GERMANY – Thick ice closed vast swathes of the Danube on Thursday, crippling shipping on Europe’s busiest waterway, as the death toll from bitter cold across the continent rose to at least 460. As it has every day for nearly two weeks, the brutal cold claimed lives in several countries and killed dozens more in weather-related accidents. The 2,860-kilometre (1,780-mile) Danube, which flows through 10 countries and is vital for transport, power, irrigation, industry and fishing, was wholly or partially blocked from Austria to its mouth on the Black Sea. Navigation was impossible or restricted in Serbia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria, as ice covered the river or formed dangerous floes in shipping lanes. An official from the Serbian economy ministry said the commercial repercussions “could be very bad,” while infrastructure ministry official Pavle Galico said shipping would not resume for 10 days. Bulgarian authorities, who have banned all navigation on the river, reported 224 vessels stuck in ports, and Ukrainian rescuers in Croatia reached three crew members on a ship trapped in the ice since Friday. Temperatures in Bulgaria dropped to a new record low Thursday of minus 28.6 degrees Celsius (minus 19.5 Fahrenheit) in the northwestern town of Vidin. The country has halted all power exports due to the cold snap. So far, 28 people have been killed in Bulgaria as a result of the weather, including eight who drowned when the icy waters of a small dam swept through their village of Biser in the southeast. Serbian railways, meanwhile, said the famed Balkan Express train that runs from Belgrade to Istanbul would only go as far as Sofia for now because of the flooding in Bulgaria. –Yahoo News
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)
B. 10/1900Z
C. 16.3S
D. 60.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D4.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OFF WHITE EYE WITH SURROUNDING RING WHITE PLUS A PARTIAL BANDING FEATURE YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET YIELDS A 4.5 DUE TO THE 24HR FT YIELDING A 3.0. PT YIELDS A 6.5 WITH HATCHED PARTS OF THE PATTERN BEING WHITE OR COLDER. CONVECTION IS DEEP WITH A COLD DARK GREY RING MEASURING 20NM AROUND THE STORM. CONSTRAINTS WERE BROKEN DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DBO DT.
Today’s question is
Hello Mochizuki San, In your next video, could you say how much of Japan you think should be evacuated? Is the Western part of Honshu ok? What about the other islands? Thanks, – anonymous
How many people should evacuate Japan ?
Posted by Mochizuki on February 10th, 2012 ·
I always thought Japanese government should have bought a part of Australia or Canada just after 311, and sent all the Japanese people to there. I know I’m sounding unrealistic but the situation is unrealistic.
but they didn’t.
It’s just human to think western Japan is safe outside of Fukushima is safe. It’s just an imaginary boarder of human, has nothing to do with radiation. Radiation doesn’t think, oh I’m getting out of Fukushima, shall stop here or should I get to Tokyo by Train or car.
Look at the world map. Japan is such a tiny island. Everywhere is the same. and now they’re distributing the radioactive debris to all over Japan, to share the “pain”, which is so typical for Japanese, and all the food is contaminated. Cars, people, train, they are all contaminated and move around in Japan. There is no safe place in Japan. That’s why I got out of there.
There are 4 main islands, Honshu, Hokkaiso, Shikoku, and Kyushu. but they are so close that you can even drive by car. They are all the same.
Mr. Koide from Kyoto university said, old people have to eat contaminated food because they have responsibility for nuclear, and it’s the responsibility of future generation to accept radiation.
I dare to say no. I won’t accept anything except for completely 0Bq/kg. I have no reason to eat radiation. I completely refuse to be involved in their fantasy world like Kamikaze. I really think all of them should leave Japan soon as possible.
well, I didn’t receive any more questions for today. and not so many people donate anymore. a bit sad, but maybe shoganai. if you have any question, please send me by comment or anything. Thank you for watching this.
Iori Mochizuki
Viewing: 101 - 151
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