My worst global warming fear: buckeyes in Ann Arbor
Last week, I blogged about how wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades, that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. I got to looking at the new zone map for Ann Arbor, Michigan, where I live, and saw how we've shifted one 5-degree Fahrenheit half-zone warmer. Ann Arbor used to be in Zone 5, but is now solidly in the warmer Zone 6. This got me to wondering, what sort of plants in Zone 6, until now rare or unknown in Ann Arbor, might migrate northwards in coming decades into the city? Then, with a sudden chill, I contemplated a truly awful possibility: The Ohio Buckeye Tree.
Figure 1. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation.
Buckeyes in Ann Arbor? The Horror!
For those of you unfamiliar the the buckeye tree, it is the emblem of Ohio State University. The Buckeyes of Ohio State have one of the most fierce rivalries in sports with that "school up north", the University of Michigan. As someone who spent twelve years of my life as a student at the University of Michigan, the thought of Buckeye trees in Ann Arbor is not one I care to contemplate. But the USDA Forest Service has published a Climate Change Tree Atlas which predicts that the most favorable habitat for the Ohio Buckeye Tree can be expected to move northwards with a warming climate. While they give their model for the Buckeye Tree a rating of "low reliability", it is nonetheless chilling to contemplate the potential infestation of Ann Arbor with this loathsome invader. I can only sadly predict that to stem the invasion, non-ecologically-minded University of Michigan students will unleash genetically engineered wolverines that eat buckeye seeds.
Figure 2. Potential changes in the mean center of distribution of the Ohio Buckeye tree. The green oval shows the current center of the range of the Buckeye Tree, well to the south of Ann Arbor. In a scenario where humans emit relatively low amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide (light blue oval), the most favorable climate for the Buckeye Tree edges into Southern Michigan, and marches into Ann Arbor under the medium and high scenarios for emissions (other ovals.) Image credit: USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Atlas.
Libyan snowstorm triggered major Saharan dust storm
On February 6, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. The storm responsible for the North African snow also had strong winds that kicked up a tremendous amount of dust over Algeria during the week. This dust became suspended in a flow of air moving to the southwest, and is now over the Atlantic Ocean.
Figure 3. Dust storm on February 7, 2012, off the coast of West Africa, spawned by a storm that brought snow to North Africa on February 6. Note the beautiful vorticies shed by the Cape Verde Islands, showing that the air is flowing northeast to southwest. The red squares mark where fires are burning in West Africa. Image credit: NASA.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.
Jeff Masters
NO SILLY NOT THE FOOTBALL TEAM .......THE REAL THING
Reader Comments
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:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D::D:D:D:D:D:D
getting close, but sooooo far..
... Freeze warning remains in effect from midnight tonight to 9 am
CST Sunday...
* timing... temperatures will fall into the upper 20s with sub
freezing temperatures for a few hours.
* Temperature... low temperatures between 28 and 32 degrees can
be expected from midnight to mid-morning Sunday.
* Impacts... sensitive plants... particularly those that have
bloomed or emerged prematurely... are at risk of damage or
being killed if not properly protected. Very dry air with low
humidity levels will also pose a higher than usual fire risk...
particularly with the use of heaters.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.
Pets are also subject to the extreme cold. Keep pets indoors as
much as possible. If this is not possible... make sure outdoor
pets have warm dry shelter... and provide sufficient food and
fresh unfrozen water.
Be particularly careful with portable heaters... there is a
danger of fire or poisonous fumes.
the eye is almost clear on microwave we dont have far 2 go before it strengthens once more to cat 4 :D:D
Then, as the Western powers seem weak China will try to make moves to take over places in Asia and the Koreas go to war, leading to a nuclear exchange which occurs on December 21.
And that's how I see the rest of 2012 and the collapse of civilization.
Yep, don't lose that positive attitude! :) I'm feeling better with each entry from the bloggers today.
There's more of a chance of an asteroid impact wiping out the planet then that scenario happening. But if that keeps you stimulating the economy by buying prepper gear, I won't stop you. :D
Hom, Syria wu page
Updated 28489 hr 21 min 46 sec ago - This station is not reporting!
Huh, must be a glitch or sumting?
FIRE WEATHER...METAR PLOTS AND RTMA ANALYSIS SHOW RATHER LOW RH
VALUES ACROSS MOST OF PR TODAY WITH MIN_RH AROUND 45%. 950-850 MB
LAPSE RATES QUITE STEEP ACCORDING TO AN 1805Z SJU ACARS SOUNDING
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IS YIELDING VERY HIGH HAINES
INDICES NOT TYPICAL FOR OUR LATITUDES. LUCKLILY...THERE ARE NOT
FIRES AT THIS TIME THAT WE KNOW OF AS THIS TYPE OF THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT COULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN PLUMES. DESPITE
THE LIGHT WINDS NEXT FEW DAYS...THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS COUPLED
WITH DRY AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COULD STILL YIELD
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS/CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN PLUMES.
LOL, Dr Jeff!
Well said, was a pleasure to read your light-hearted, humorous perspective, although I'm sure either buckeye is not welcome in Ann Arbor... But remember it could be worse - if you live in SE LA with our subsidence issues, disappearing "land masses" as the Gulf steadily encroaches NWD, combined with the last vestiges of inland habitat being quickly destroyed / converted by zealous, greedy overdevelopment... Tell ya what, I'll trade you some 2,4-D for a life raft!
And actually...
The adaptation / re-distribution of plants and animals that could be attributed to AGW over time totally pales with how rapidly undesirable species have already become established, expanding faster in all directions via the vastly interconnected routes of travel / commerce (highways / waterways) and modern mobility... Evidence abounds how many non-native / invasive species have spread and displaced native flora / fauna either by inadvertent transport, the folly of short-sided or misguided intentions to reckless, criminally negligent actions...
Hmmmm, on that note - uh oh, according to this historical distribution map looks like both Michigan and Ohio share blame on this one, lol!
;)
Invasive Zebra Mussel distribution USA: 1988-1997
Even if money failed, the U.S. military is so powerful it could easily defeat most of those nations...combined... in a "total war" situation, without the use of WMD.
In fact, if you knew the world economy was going to collapse in a short time, then making your military as big as possible would be the smart thing to do; that way you can bust everyone else anyway.
If the U.S. took the gloves off, we could flatten small fries like Syria in one or two days. There'd be nothing left but craters from one border to the other, and you do't need WMD to do that: One or two carriers and a few destroyers is all you need.
What gets most of our troops killed or injured in places like Iraq and Afghanistan is PC BS, which causes us to fight stupid urban warfare, instead of just sitting back and smothering people with superior conventional military.
What costs the U.S. so much MONEY in warfare is again PC BS, because we spend a million dollars EACH to make the guidance system for a smart bomb so we can kill the dictator in his office, while sparing the life of his secretary in the next room over; AS IF they are somehow innocent of all the evils they help perpetuate.
In many cases it would be cheaper, more cost effective, and even morally superior to just carpet bomb the entire complex.
Pulling punches and fundamentally IGNORING the root problems in Iraq and Afghanistan (and Saudi Arabia), due to political correctness and multi-culturalism, is main reason the U.S. was there and is there so long, getting thousands of people killed and wounded needlessly.
There is NO SENSE in getting thousands of infantrymen killed and ten thousands wounded given our modern air power and artillery.
What happened to the "Either you're with us or against us," policy?
Hey, you know what, back up and bomb the hell out of the town until everyone surrenders, unconditionally, and turns over the terrorists.
That's how you protect your own soldiers, citizens, and economy.
The way the mess should have been handled after 9/11 would be to make it the U.S. policy to indescriminantly bomb ANY nation found to be supporting any form of international terrorism against us, and after the first bombing, if they do it again, bomb them ten times harder the next time.
Eventually any "good" people will decide it probably makes sense to start turning over the terrorists.
We should also cut funding to Pakistan immediately, and even put sanctions on them, because it's obvious that they not only knew Bin Laden was there, but they were probably even funneling money to him.
But what's going to happen is the same old PC BS, where we'll actually be paying our enemies to fight us and our allies.
Well Loberta, Well Loberta Girl, can't you hear me callin' you Well you're three times seven, baby You know just what you gotta do Well Loberta, well Loberta..
It's not subtropical first of all. It's a deep cold core storm (not even shallow warm core) with little to no convection around the surface low. While winds do just barely reach the requirements (models and ascat showing 35kt wind barbs), the storm is vertically stacked (being vertically stacked is good for tropical storms, but bad for extratropical or subtropical storms because it means divergence is no longer present aloft and surface pressures will cease to drop) so it will begin to weaken by tomorrow. Also, the storm is moving southwest and should be ripped apart by the westerlies by tomorrow night.
Our "1 to 2 inches" last night ended up being less than a quarter of an inch -___-
Prices for some have risen as much as eightyfold.
Interesting Brazil low
We haven't had a shortage of snow in Jan in lower MI, it's been the warm bursts of air sometimes lasting a week that melts all the snow away before is can get above a foot.
This is much preferred to winters were we get different layers of snow, ice, and slush that don't get a chance to melt. That usually causes all sorts of flooding problems and just an overall mess come Spring.
thats a nice avatar u got there should keep that one
so is dis saying that there is going to be a possible low to drop snow over the east?
I can't wait for the Wikipedia article.
World War III: Mayan decisive victory. Who knew buried under the temple at Tikal was several thousand tons of instant sunshine?
It's almost as funny as the guy predicting the US could destroy everyone militarily if it weren't for that pesky Geneva Convention!
It felt like a mild winter and it was until the last week or so. Plummeted to about 5 to 10F overnight and barely going above freezing (if at all) in the day. Brr. Not as bad as other countries though, Italy and Poland have been frozen. At least -20F in the latter.
Aside one day, avoided the snow, though.
Yeah, it looks like Severe Weather is a possibility. However, compared to what the GFS showed a week ago, this should be just a minor event.
Moisture return hasn't been setup for this spring yet. When it does though, I bet we'll be seeing some terrifying outbreaks.
Miami NWS Discussion
i measured a wind gust to 16.3 knots(18.8mph) earlier when i went walking with my dad. pretty windy out there 2day
no no no this cant be i dont want more cold weather!
GFS took the snow showers out mf my forecast :D
no snow OR rain, i like that
Hurricane Dean satellite loop (revised to correct satellite switching problems in Caribbean)
Long term...
Arctic air mass undergoes rapid moderation by Monday over the Appalachians with onshore flow onsetting in the western Gulf Coast region. Moisture return could be quite rich in advance of next system to develop over the High Plains.
Rain appears to be a nearly sure bet for Monday night before drying out for Tuesday and
Wednesday. The next system in a series is expected to develop in the Lower Plains states Wednesday night and bring next round of rain to the forecast area Thursday.
Friday should be cool and dry.
Models are showing rather large system evolving out of West Coast cut-off low to enter the middle-Gulf Coast region next weekend.
Not totally sold on timing but either super-krewe Saturday or super- krewe Sunday are in jeopardy of inclement weather.
At this time...placing greater emphasis on Saturday...but timing may be adjusted as the event nears.
(The Super Krewes are the Parades of Endymion Saturday Evening , and Bacchus Sunday.)
Actually, I didn't say that at all.
We could do that within "conventional" warfare. I said no WMD needed.
I also didn't say "everyone". I said "Most". Big difference there.
Anyway, it's unfortunate that a stricter and stricter application of the Geneva Convention is part of the reason U.S. (and European!) casualties are needlessly so high during conflicts of other nations.
If we adhered to our own constitution as strictly as we did the Geneva Convention, then the "Human shields" who wen't to Iraq just before the Shock and Awe campaign should have been prosecuted for treason.
As defined by article 3 section 3 of the U.S. constitution:
"Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort. No Person shall be convicted of Treason unless on the Testimony of two Witnesses to the same overt Act, or on Confession in open Court."
This means that every person who went to Iraq or Libya as a "Human shield," under the guise that such action would prevent the U.S. actions there, is guilty of Treason.
Although, as you can see, a legal conviction of treason is virtually impossible to obtain....then again, some of them were wearing t-shirts identifying themselves, so um...
Reality is, "He started it," is often the only moral high ground anyone has anyway.
Police officers are forced to make a kill decision in domestic law all the time, and we consider this justified in order to protect life and limb of others.
Why people find this same reasoning repulsive in matters of international law or warfare is beyond me.
Killing terrorists and destroying rogue governments is a good and just action, which we should actively do whenever and wherever possible.
Being a pacifist does nothing but perpetuate the terrorist (or rogue government's) evil actions.
You can't fight a war against an ideal. You will lose, no matter how many bombs you throw at it.
Indiscriminate bombing of helpless nations is not only ridiculously inhumane, utterly pointless as well. By your logic, we should never negotiate in hostage situations, just kill them all as it will teach future hostage takers a lesson. I can guarantee that the vast majority of people want to have nothing to do with terrorists, nor particularly enjoy being carpet bombed as a penalty for the crimes of a few rich and powerful psychopathic jackasses.
Fortunately, most world leaders are beyond the tyrannical stage of "Do what I want or I'll bomb you to hell!". That may work in your RTS games, but it is a sick and twisted philosophy in the real world. For fig's sake, they're human beings too.
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