La Niña drawing to a close
La Niña, the cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters off the coast of South America that has dramatically affected our weather for most of the past two years, is almost done. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", have warmed rapidly over the past two weeks, and were 0.4°C below average on February 27. This is slightly warmer than the -0.5°C threshold to be considered La Niña conditions, and is the first time since early August that La Niña conditions have not been present. It is likely that SSTs will continue to warm during March and April, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is predicting that they will declare an official end to La Niña sometime between March and April. A moderate to strong La Niña began in the summer of 2010, weakened briefly during May - July 2011 to neutral status, then re-intensified to a borderline weak/moderate La Niña from August 2011 - January 2012.
Figure 1. Comparison of the sea surface temperature departure from average from January 4 and February 22, 2012, over the tropical Eastern Pacific. During January, a large region of the ocean was more than 0.5°C cooler than average, meaning a La Niña event was present. Beginning in mid-February, waters warmed rapidly from east to west along the Equator, signaling and end to the La Niña event. Image credit: NOAA.
The forecast: neutral or El Niño conditions by fall
The period March - May is the typical time of year that El Niño or La Niña events end, and it is common for the opposite phenomena to take hold by fall. Since 1950, there have been twelve La Niña events that ended during the first half of the year; during six of those years (50%), an El Niño event formed in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. The official forecast from Columbia University's IRI and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for a 31 - 32% chance of an El Niño event during the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by creating high levels of wind shear that tends to tear hurricanes apart. Given the relatively high chance of an El Niño event this fall, plus ocean temperatures over the tropical Atlantic that are cooler than we saw in 2011 and 2010, I doubt we'll see an Atlantic hurricane season as active as the ones in 2010 and 2011 (nineteen named storms both years, third busiest seasons on record.) The demise of La Niña also means that global temperatures should begin to approach record warm levels by the end of the year. The cool waters of a La Niña event keep global temperatures cooler than average.
Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in mid-February 2012. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Most of the computer models are predicting neutral or El Niño conditions during the fall peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.
I'll have a new post by Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
COLUMBUS NEBRASKA TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING
AHEAD OF A DEEP SURFACE LOW...AND NEAR THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AFTER
DARK WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...HART
I hope you saw the SPC winter MCDs. Linked at 290, in case you did not. All three include Minnesota - two for heavy snow, and one mentions freezing rain. Good luck up there.
I rarely flag and release any more, but some days that's just the ticket.
3,500-Year-Old Tree Burned Down In Jan.
Read more: http://www.wesh.com/news/30562154/detail.html#ixzz 1niUVAavL
LONGWOOD, Fla. -- The Division of Forestry said Tuesday that an arrest has been made in relation to the fire of 'The Senator.'
Sara Barnes, 26, said she regularly went to the tree site to use drugs and lit a fire that night so she could see and said it got out of control. The 3,500-year-old bald cypress burned down last month in a fire.
Officials said they found images of the fire being started on Barnes laptop and on her cellphone.
Some people believe that the tree is still alive. They have spotted saplings at the base of the big tree.
Officials also said that the tree was cloned at one point, and they are searching to bring the clones back.
The park will remained closed until the investigation into the fire that destroyed the Senator is completed.
you posted that twice...
Just in case someone missed from the last page.
this snap shot was just prior to the Tornado Warning that was issued before the Watch was posted. it was pretty much right on!
here is the link to the home page for the current products, as updated: Link
at this point, i'm almost more interested in the convective storms, than what piles up on the ground around me.. but seriously, no ice!!
;)
... A slight risk of severe thunderstorms across western portions of
the mid state late tonight and all of middle Tennessee on Wednesday...
... Main threat will be damaging winds... but isolated tornadoes will
be possible...
As a strong cold front approaches the mid state tonight and moves
through the mid state on Wednesday... thunderstorms will develop.
Some of these thunderstorms may be severe... with the main threat
being damaging winds... but there will be also the potential for
isolated tornadoes. There could be several periods of thunderstorms...
with the best potential late tonight near and across the Tennessee
River valley... and the late morning through afternoon hours across
the remainder of middle Tennessee. There could even be some severe
thunderstorms during the Wednesday evening hours across the
Cumberland Plateau region.
This is a time to be sure that your severe weather safety plans are
in place for your residence and business. If you have not already done
so... it would be a good time to Purchase a NOAA Weather Radio and
have it tuned to the transmitter that serves your particular location
in middle Tennessee. Information about NOAA Weather Radio transmitter
and the location that they serve in middle Tennessee can be found
on the Nashville National Weather Service web Page at
www.Weather.Gov/Nashville under weather safety.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 445 PM CST
* AT 410 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTH OF STAPLETON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STAPLETON AND GANDY AROUND 425 PM CST.
TARBOZ LAKE AROUND 430 PM CST.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE HIGHWAY 83 MILE
MARKER 120.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Where at? There is one heck of a hook echo that just crossed Borken Bow. Thanks I see you just added it:)
That wasn't a hook echo, just an interesting shape the storm took. No rotation.
and to the west of there is where the tornado is/was.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
415 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 445 PM CST
* AT 410 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTH OF STAPLETON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STAPLETON AND GANDY AROUND 425 PM CST.
TARBOZ LAKE AROUND 430 PM CST.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE HIGHWAY 83 MILE
MARKER 120.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4163 10052 4156 10033 4133 10056 4138 10064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 205DEG 33KT 4140 10054
$$
Thanks!
***
Seems no one has posted the latest update to SPC Day 1 convective outlook...
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...
...CENTRAL CONUS...
FEW CHANGES ARE BEING MADE THIS FORECAST...AS THE OVERALL OUTLOOK
APPEARS ON TRACK. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF TORNADO
POTENTIAL INTO ERN OK...WILL TRIM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE 5%
TORNADO PROBABILITY. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL SCENARIO AS LAID OUT
IN PRIOR FORECASTS REMAINS IN LINE WITH CURRENT THINKING.
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS SHOULD INCREASE WITH
TIME AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN/SLOWLY DESTABILIZE...WITH
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS LIKELY TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WITH TIME...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD ALONG
THE ADVANCING FRONT -- PERHAPS AS FAR S AS OK. WITH TIME...EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND LINEAR ORGANIZATION AS THE
CONVECTION CROSSES MO AND VICINITY THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS
SUGGESTS ISOLATED TORNADO RISK...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
WIND -- GIVEN STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND LIKELIHOOD THAT CONVECTION
ORGANIZES LINEARLY INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
..GOSS.. 02/28/2012
I really did not lose this low-topped supercell link.
:)
Well, according to GR2Analyst, the tornado warning has been cancelled. There is a chaser on the storm, and I see a mesocyclone, but no tornado.
spouted in 1499 B.C.
stood the test of time
till jan 2012 death by mankind
1492 BC—April 3—Lunar Saros 37 begins.
There was a little bit of rotation near Broken Bow not long ago. It's gone away now.
The warning is still active.
See, that's an upside to GR2Analyst. You'll know the exact time a tornado warning expires, like this one. Of course, it will show until 4:45 PM CDT, but it has already been cancelled. :)
Yeah, I think your right. I don't see any rotation with that storm.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
445 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
NORTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
EASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
EASTERN THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 530 PM CST
* AT 442 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
NORTH OF TARBOZ LAKE...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF STAPLETON...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 70 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HALSEY AROUND 500 PM CST.
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HIGHWAY
2 MILE MARKER 230.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. DUE TO THE ROTATING NATURE OF THESE
STORMS...THEY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER...
INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...PREFERABLY INTO
AN INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR A CLOSET...OR INTO A
BASEMENT.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
image credit: CIMSS
(add: This is an experimental product.)
I was upset when I heard that tree was burnt down, and I'm not sure I believe the story of the person either. It seems more intentional because lighting a camp fire that got out of control wouldn't just burn down that tree, to burn that tree would either require an already large forest fire that moved through the area, or it was intentionally set on fire. I mean, I don't know that for sure, but when you think about it, intentional seems far more likely.
i MISSED IT.
Well, I would prefer a full operational buoy system and if one breaks down, I would want it repaired asap, not when they can. It could be a critical buoy.
Please be real careful and specific when making such statements or you might confuse the issue for someone under a warning.
If you read the official updates, you can see the tor warnings in NB were canceled in segments. If you click the station ID, this Severe Weather Warnings Page will give you official warning updates as soon as they are out, simultaneously or within a minute or less of official weather radio announcements.
You have a neat tool there with your analyst. Just bear in mind people under the gun, especially those in rural areas, might be reading your words.
Well I hope they're not taking what I'm saying to heart, they should be listening to their weather radio. =)
As you said, this will almost certainly not happen, but it's still interesting to note how models are seeing conditions over the Gulf in Feb./Mar. that could support a tropical system.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
524 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 600 PM CST
* AT 521 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RANDALL...SCOTTSVILLE AND FORMOSO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.
On this link, and earlier there was a funnel cloud. It looks interesting now.
also where the last tornado hit, i saw ice and snow on the ground.
By far... Very good chance there will be a tornado with this storm
I really don't see why some people are saying a full-fledged El Nino. Kelvin waves warm the Pacific all the time, sometimes significantly, like this recent one. That doesn't mean we're going to quickly transition to El Nino before June 1.
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