Eleven deaths in tornado outbreak; new tornado outbreak likely Friday
The winter of 2012 blew out like a lion yesterday, with a massive Leap Day storm that pounded the Midwest with deadly tornadoes and heavy snow. A violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph winds tore through Harrisburg, Illinois at 4:56 am CST yesterday morning, killing six, injuring approximately 100, and damaging 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path seven miles long and 250 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. Another person was killed in southwest Missouri near Buffalo when am EF-2 tornado ripped through a mobile home park late Wednesday night. Twelve others were injured in the mobile home park. Four additional deaths occurred due to tornadoes in Cassville, MO, Smithville, TN, and Monterey, TN yesterday, bringing the death toll of the two-day severe weather outbreak to eleven. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri yesterday morning, injuring 33 people. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theaters--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. The Branson Landing on Lake Taneycomo and the Veterans Memorial Museum were also heavily damaged. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. An EF-2 tornado also hit the small town of Harveyville, Kansas (population 275), twenty miles southwest of Topeka, at 9:03 pm Wednesday night. The tornado destroyed 40 - 60% of the structures and injured twelve, three critically. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and could add up to be the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S.
Figure 1. Damage in Branson, Missouri after yesterday's tornado. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.
Yesterday's tornado outbreak's place in history
Yesterday was the deadliest day for U.S. tornadoes since May 24, 2011, when 18 people died in a Midwest tornado outbreak--part of the five-day outbreak that brought the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado, which killed 158 people and injured 1150. The preliminary tornado total from February 28 - 29 of 2012 is 30, making it the largest February tornado outbreak since February 17 - 18, 2008, when 31 twisters touched down. Yesterday's Harrisburg, Illinois tornado was the deadliest February tornado since the February 10, 2009 EF-4 twister that struck Southern Oklahoma near Ardmore, killing eight. The deadliest February tornado in recorded history occurred on February 21, 1971, when an F-4 tornado ripped a 202-mile path through Mississippi, killing 58 people.
Figure 2. By analyzing both the rotational velocity of the storm systems (the spinning of tornadoes has high rotational velocity compared to the surrounding storms) and presence of hail, scientists at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory have developed a product that approximates the track of tornadoes, shown here for the February 29, 2012 storms. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.
Violent tornadoes in February: a rarity
Violent February tornadoes are rare in February. The Tornado History Project lists eighteen EF-4 and one EF-5 tornadoes in the U.S. during the month of February since 1950--an average of one violent February tornado every three years. Part of the reason for this is the lack of warm, unstable air so early in the year. However, this year's unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1°C above average--among the top ten warmest values on record, going back to the 1800s. Averaged over the month of February, the highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Gulf between 20 - 30°N, 85 - 95°W occurred in 2002, when the waters were 1.34°C above average. Yesterday's tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by high instability created by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there.
Heavy snow hits Upper Midwest
The same storm system also brought the heaviest snows of the winter to portions of the Upper Midwest, which has received scant snowfall this winter. Widespread heavy snow fell in northern Wisconsin, where Mincqua recorded 18 inches. South Dakota, Central Minnesota, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula also received snow amounts in excess of a foot. The storm also brought moderate snows to Northern New England, with southern Vermont receiving more than 8 inches. The latest NOAA Storm Summary has detailed storm total accumulation info.
Figure 3. Snowfall amounts for the 3-day period ending at 7 am local time Thursday, March 1, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Southern Region Headquarters.
New tornado outbreak likely on Friday
The storm system that brought yesterday's tornadoes and snow has moved into Canada and New England, and the threat of severe weather is minimal today in the Midwest. However, a new storm system is expected to form over Missouri early Friday and track northeastward, unleashing a new tornado outbreak over Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Indiana, and Ohio. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather Friday, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.
Figure 4. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Tennessee, Kentucky, and portions of surrounding states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather on Friday. This is one level below the highest level of alert, "High Risk."
Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight is sending people into the Harrisburg, IL, area at this time in response to the tornado disaster there. They will be assessing needs there and surrounding areas. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the un-served, under-served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 — Blog Index
I advise all of those who are living in the effected area to rise and shine early warn their friends and relatives!
Be prepared!
Next Gen radar: is called duel polarization radar!
Nighttime? No, it will be an all day event lasting INTO the nighttime hours.
http://fukushimaupdate.com/helen-caldicott-on-fuk ushima-one-year-later-interview/
Why arent mid-level lapse rates measured below 7 on the SPC Mesoscale Analysis? IS below 7 weak?
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
155 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012
...TORNADOES CONFIRMED IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY AND DEKALB COUNTY...
THE STORM SURVEY TEAM IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY HAS CONFIRMED A
TORNADO. DAMAGE ALONG HIGHWAY 127 WAS MAXIMUM EF2 INTENSITY WITH
WINDS OF 125 MPH. THE PATH WIDTH WAS 250 YARDS. PATH LENGTH AND
OTHER INFORMATION WILL BE POSTED AS SOON AS IT IS AVAILABLE.
THE STORM SURVEY TEAM IN DEKALB COUNTY HAS ALSO CONFIRMED A
TORNADO. THE PATH BEGAN NEAR SMITHVILLE HIGH SCHOOL AND CONTINUED
EAST ACROSS CENTER HILL LAKE.
THE SURVEYS WILL CONTINUE. MORE DETAILS...INCLUDING EF SCALE
RATINGS...WILL BECOME AVAILABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
About 3 inches... Epic blizzard for this winter :D
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
337 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-02 2145-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PI CKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSO N-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKM AN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
337 PM CST THU MAR 1 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT. A FEW MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE ON FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS...HAIL AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES.
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
wow...3 inches...thats 12x more then i have gotten!
Values below 7 are measured on the SPC Mesoscale Analysis.
where...i dont see any below 7...
That's what it will look like tomorrow but hopefully all will be well in your neck of the woods.
because this does not look good at all and I am concerned
Link
I think I like this guy!
Don't count on much...
????
it's 68 @ Folly Beach, Carolina
I'd give it about a 45% chance. If I were to guess, the high risk would be just to the south of you.
Lol, that's funny, I just started making the exact same chart for select cities a few minutes ago. =P
sorry i was looking at wrong thing, lol. found it thx
I am hoping that for NC it will be a yellow shade tomorrow :D
Date 3 April 1974
The image was taken by its original author Frank Altenau and later published on the NOAA governmental weather site via the National Weather Service Office in Wilmington, Clinton County, Ohio.
But what of the even rarer blue flash? Turns out, that's real too. Peter Rosen photographed one from Stockholm, Sweden, on Feb. 29th:
Link
"I was shooting the sunset when, suddenly, just as the sun was about to disappear behind the treetops, there was a mighty blue flash," says Rosen
Blues flashes are formed in the same way as green flashes: a mirage magnifies tiny differences in the atmospheric refraction of red, green and blue light. Blue flashes are generally harder to see than green flashes, because blue flashes blend into the surrounding blue sky. When the air is exceptionally clear, however, the blue flash emerges.
Verne described the green flash as something "which no artist could ever obtain on his palette, a green of which neither the varied tints of vegetation nor the shades of the most limpid sea could ever produce the like! If there is a green in Paradise, it cannot be but of this shade, which most surely is the true green of Hope."
Ditto the blue.
Yeah I agree it is still a little much, reading comments on from a couple WFOs, and it looks like nobody knows what will happen.
StormTracker2K can tell you about it, he has posted some of the ECMWF 8 day forecasts showing something big.
May 11, 1953 Waco, Texas 114 1953 Waco tornado outbreak
May 29, 1953 Fort Rice, North Dakota 2
June 8, 1953 Flint, Michigan 116[4] Flint-Worcester tornado outbreak sequence
June 27, 1953 Adair, Iowa 1
December 5, 1953 Vicksburg, Mississippi 38 1953 Vicksburg, Mississippi tornado outbreak Yes, destroyed structures were frail[5]
May 25, 1955 Blackwell, Oklahoma 20 1955 Great Plains tornado outbreak
May 25, 1955 Udall, Kansas 82 1955 Great Plains tornado outbreak
April 3, 1956 Grand Rapids - Hudsonville, Michigan 18 April 1956 Hudsonville-Standale tornado
May 20, 1957 Kansas - Missouri 44 May 1957 Central Plains tornado outbreak
June 20, 1957 Fargo, North Dakota [1] 10 1957 Fargo tornado
December 18, 1957 Murphysboro, Illinois 1
June 4, 1958 Menomonie, Wisconsin 20 Colfax, Wisconsin tornado outbreak
May 5, 1960 Prague, Oklahoma 5
April 3, 1964 Wichita Falls, Texas 7
May 5, 1964 Bradshaw, Nebraska 4[6]
May 8, 1965 Gregory, South Dakota 0
March 3, 1966 Jackson, Mississippi 57 Candlestick Park tornado
June 8, 1966 Topeka, Kansas 16 1966 Topeka tornado
October 14, 1966 Belmond, Iowa 16 Yes[5]
April 23, 1968 Gallipolis, Ohio 7 Wheelersburg, Ohio tornado outbreak Yes, destroyed structures were not swept away[5]
May 15, 1968 Charles City, Iowa 13 May 1968 tornado outbreak
May 15, 1968 Oelwein, Iowa 1 May 1968 tornado outbreak
June 13, 1968 Tracy, Minnesota 9 1968 Tracy tornado
May 11, 1970 Lubbock, Texas 26 Lubbock tornado
February 21, 1971 Delhi, Louisiana 46 February 1971 Mississippi Valley tornado outbreak
May 6, 1973 Valley Mills, Texas 0
April 3, 1974 Hanover - Depauw, Indiana 6 Super Outbreak
April 3, 1974 Brandenburg, Kentucky 31 Super Outbreak
April 3, 1974 Xenia, Ohio 32 Super Outbreak
April 3, 1974 Sayler Park (Cincinnati, Ohio) 3 Super Outbreak
April 3, 1974 Tanner, Alabama 28 Super Outbreak
April 3, 1974 Guin, Alabama 30 Super Outbreak
March 26, 1976 Spiro, Oklahoma 2
April 19, 1976 Brownwood, Texas 0
June 13, 1976 Jordan, Iowa 0
April 4, 1977 Jefferson County, Alabama 22 April 1977 Birmingham tornado
April 2, 1982 Broken Bow, Oklahoma 0
June 7, 1984 Barneveld, Wisconsin 9 Barneveld, Wisconsin tornado outbreak
May 31, 1985 Niles, Ohio - Wheatland, Pennsylvania 18 1985 United States-Canadian tornado outbreak
March 13, 1990 Hesston, Kansas 1 March 1990 Central US tornado outbreak
March 13, 1990 Goessel, Kansas 1 March 1990 Central US tornado outbreak
August 28, 1990 Plainfield, Illinois 29 1990 Plainfield tornado
April 26, 1991 Andover, Kansas 17 Andover, Kansas tornado outbreak
June 16, 1992 Chandler, Minnesota 1 Mid-June 1992 tornado outbreak
July 18, 1996 Oakfield, Wisconsin 0 Oakfield tornado
May 27, 1997 Jarrell, Texas 27 Central Texas tornado outbreak
April 8, 1998 Jefferson County, Alabama 32 April 1998 Birmingham tornado
April 16, 1998 Lawrence County, Tennessee 3 1998 Nashville tornado outbreak
May 3, 1999 Bridge Creek - Moore, Oklahoma 36 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak
June 22, 2007 Elie, Manitoba[7] (assessed by Environment Canada) 0 Elie, Manitoba tornado
Date Location Death Toll Path Length Wikipedia article
May 4, 2007 Greensburg, Kansas [8] 11 26 miles (42 km) May 2007 tornado outbreak
May 25, 2008 Parkersburg - New Hartford, Iowa [9] 9 43 miles (69 km) Late-May 2008 tornado outbreak sequence
April 27, 2011 Philadelphia, Mississippi [10] 3 29 miles (47 km) April 25–28, 2011 tornado outbreak
April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, AL - Huntland, TN [11] 72 132 miles (212 km) April 25–28, 2011 tornado outbreak
April 27, 2011 Smithville, MS - Shottsville, AL[12] 22 75 miles (121 km) April 25–28, 2011 tornado outbreak
April 27, 2011 Rainsville, Alabama [13] 26 33.8 miles (54.4 km) April 25-28, 2011 tornado outbreak
May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri [14] 162 22.1 miles (35.6 km) [15] 2011 Joplin tornado
May 24, 2011 Calumet - El Reno - Guthrie, Oklahoma [16] 9 65 miles (105 km) May 21–26, 2011 tornado outbreak sequence
Yes, comparing it to the 1974 Super outbreak is a little too much. If anything, I would compare it to the Super Tuesday Outbreak of 2008.
I'll get back to you about next week, let me go look at some things.
Yep, it felt a little more gimmicky last year though...maybe that was just me.
Storm Chasers is cancelled.
Viewing: 201 - 251
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 — Blog Index