Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Fourth warmest winter on record for the U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:54 GMT le 08 Mars 2012

+35

February is gone, and the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 is the history books as the fourth warmest in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The winter average temperature of 36.8°F was just 0.4°F cooler than the warmest winter on record, the winter of 1999 - 2000. If you lived in the Northern Plains, Midwest, Southeast and Northeast, it seemed like winter never really arrived this year--27 states in this region had top-ten warmest winters. Across the U.S., only New Mexico (41st coolest) and Alaska (35th coolest) had winter temperatures colder than average. According to NOAA's Climate Extremes Index, the percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures (top 10% on record) was 49 percent--the 4th highest value since the index began being computed in 1911. Jackson, Kentucky, Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, and Trenton, New Jersey all had their warmest winter on record.

Figure 1. Contiguous U.S. temperature rankings for the winter of 2011 - 2012 (the months of December - January - February.) The 117-year period of record begins in 1895, and each state is given a ranking based on how cold this winter was, relative to the other 116 years. Thus, a ranking of 116 means it was the 2nd warmest winter on record. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Figure 2. Contiguous U.S. temperatures for winter (the months of December - January - February), from 1895 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest winter on record, behind 2000, 1999, and 1992. Winter temperatures have increased by abot 1.7°F per century (red linear trend line.) Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Third least snowy winter on record for the contiguous U.S.
Warm and dry conditions during the winter of 2011 - 2012 led to snow cover extent that was the 3rd lowest in the 46-year satellite record, according to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab. Snowfall was particularly low across parts of the West, where much of California, Nevada, and Arizona had a snowpack less than half of average. Fortunately, the West had a near-record snowpack the previous winter, so this year's lack on snow will not cause serious water availability problems during the summer. In the Upper Midwest, the lack of a winter snowpack will substantially reduce the chances of spring flooding along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers. NOAA issues their annual spring flood outlook on March 15, and it is likely to show a much lower risk of flooding compared to last year, when 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year floods hit much of the Missouri and Lower Mississippi rivers. However, the remarkably low snow cover this winter over the Upper Midwest will allow soils to dry out much more quickly than usual, leading to increased chances of summer drought. The latest Drought Monitor map shows moderate to severe drought covering nearly all of Minnesota and Northwest Iowa; these regions are at high risk of suffering damaging drought conditions during the summer growing season.

Figure 3. State-by-state rankings of precipitation for the winter of 2011 - 2012. Four Western states had a top-ten driest winters on record, and Kansas had a top-ten wettest winter. Drought-stricken Texas, which entered the winter expecting drier than average conditions, since it was a La Niña year, lucked out, getting an unusually wet winter. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

A very mild winter for the Midwest
If you live in the Midwest, you saved a bundle this winter on heating and snow removal costs. In Minneapolis, where the low temperature falls below 0°F an average of 30 days each year, the temperature fell below zero on just two days. These days were January 18 and 19, when the low hit -1°F and -11°F, respectively. Since record keeping began in 1891, only one other winter has had so few below-zero days--the winter of 2001 - 2002. Third place is held by the winter of 1930 - 1931, with six below-zero days. Minneapolis has seen half of its usual snowfall this winter--just 22.1" as of March 7, which is 22.1" below the average of 44.2". The least snowy winter for Minneapolis occurred in the winter of 1930 - 1931, when just 14.2" of snow fell on the city.

Chicago has also seen far less snow than usual--just 19.8" as of March 7, 11.8" below their average. In a normal winter, there are 13 days with sub-zero temperatures in Chicago. The coldest it got in Chicago this winter was a relatively balmy 5°F on January 19. This is just one degree cooler than the warmest winter low temperature ever recorded in the city, which is 6°F. Here is a list of the winters in Chicago that have had no sub-zero temperatures, with the coldest temperature of the winter shown in parentheses:

1930-31 (6°F)
1959-60 (6°F)
1905-06 (6°F)
2011-12 (5°F)
1982-83 (3°F)
1938-39 (2°F)
1955-56 (2°F)
1931-32 (1°F)
1881-82 (1°F)
1936-37 (1°F)

NCDC's Dr. Deke Arndt has a two-minute video discussing the reasons for this year's warm winter. The primary factor was the position of the jet stream, which lay much farther north than usual.

I'll be back Monday at the latest with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Mild Winter (26mileman)

With mild temps people are out riding their bikes.

March 6-7 aurora in Palmer Alaska (alaskario)

A Little Light... (ceocrocker)

Amazing what sunlight, river debris and a little skim of ice can produce!

Categories: Climate Summaries

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801. wxmod 18:48 GMT le 10 Mars 2012
Quoting bappit: I heard a news story about the dust storms from China reaching Korea. It said the dust originates in the Gobi Desert. Link. "Intense dust storms have blown across Korea throughout recorded history, but their frequency and intensity have increased in recent decades." Gobi Desert dust and smog look totally different on satellite photos. China is suffering from a smog epidemic. It is huge and is affecting the worlds weather. It is also well documented, so I hope you will pay more attention and learn to read satellite photos. They are available for free on the internet. Member Since: 4 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220

802. WxGeekVA 20:37 GMT le 10 Mars 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000: How can going after a bad guy like this be a bad thing? He kidnaps, torments, and enslaves children correct? Well you'd be pretty foolish to think that he could do that all by himself. After all, the kids end up being part of his army eventually. Like any such group, the more senior members get granted power. Even the underlings get tempted by the power. They have a vested interest; the have more than they would otherwise. Going in there and killing Kony would do absolutely nothing other than create a power vacuum within the group, and possibly in the larger surrounding area. The more senior members of the group would either select a new leader or break into violent factions. Now instead of one evil POS you have several. There is an entire psychology in place in such groups. You can't just go in there guns blazing and take out the leader. That doesn't work, and more than likely result in even worse problems. You need an understanding of the area and the problems people face there. You have to understand why someone would want to become part of such a group. Even simple drivers like hunger can be enough to take a reluctant child and turn them into a willing soldier. This was the whole point behind my previous comment. The US has great power, but knee-jerk "bomb that SOB to hell" reactions, even when driven by a good cause, only leads to more problems. With great power comes great responsibility means that whenever you intend to use that power, you must be wise and use the utmost care in applying it. Otherwise you end up creating bigger problems. Who said anything about killing him guns blazing Navy SEAL style? Arrest him, try him, find him guilty of course at the ICC at The Hague, and sentence him to death then. That should send a message to his followers and others like him in the region that what he did is unacceptable and you will eventually have justice served. Of course you will need military to capture him and bring him in but there will be no need to "bomb the hell out of them" for his arrest to occurr. Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3318

803. TropicalAnalystwx13 20:40 GMT le 10 Mars 2012
Very educational video put together by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Weather Partners. Watch it if you have not yet seen it. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25314

804. Jedkins01 21:35 GMT le 10 Mars 2012
Quoting hydrus: It was the best bang for the buck Jed..:) See I drink beer when I'm just relaxing with my friends by the creek or fishing, so I drink it to enjoy it. I don't drink to get drunk, in fact I never have been drunk before. That being said, Busch beer doesn't cut it for me, lol. Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

805. WxGeekVA 21:40 GMT le 10 Mars 2012
From local forecast discussion: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAR 13/14 - 19 YRS SINCE THE STORM OF THE CENTURY. I CAN`T SAY THAT THE WX PATTERN FOR THE WK AHD LOOKS EVEN REMOTELY LK A NMRL MID MARCH PATTERN. THE END OF WINTER LOOKS LK IT`S GOING TO OUT W/ A WHIMPER... Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3318

806. BahaHurican 22:52 GMT le 10 Mars 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I feel fine and am in good health. Plus, I like drinking them. Problem? It's not like I'm you, drink all the water you* want. :P* Actually there is a fair amount of scientific evidence out there that excessive consumption of soft drinks among teens can lead to both short and long term problems for them. I don't think Jed meant don't drink another one. But I'd certainly not drink more than one a day, and get in as much water as you do other forms of liquid. The key to this drinking thing [sodas, coffee, beer, other alcohol or sugar-based drinks] is moderation. It's the ABUSE that kills... And the bit with the negative impact gets worse in the 40s and 50s, so all u old guys out there.... lol Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17661

807. BahaHurican 23:07 GMT le 10 Mars 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA: What isn't good about stopping a man from kidnapping children and forcing them to fight, making them slaves, and other unspeakable things that he makes them do? How can someone in good conscience refuse to do anything to help stop these crimes and bring this man to justice? How could you make a comparison of Hitler and his "Final Solution" that he wrongly thought was good, to an international effort of which is to stop crimes similar to that from occurring? Come on, if you don't want to help, or if you are unable to just say so. Don't make up a flimsy excuse such as "Is this really good we are doing?" because if you really think that this isnt a good cause or the right thing to do, maybe you should take a step back and consider what your morals and values are. The problem isn't with "wanting" to help. The problem is with making sure your "solution" doesn't result in a greater problem in the long run. Like Prohibition contributed to organized crime rather than reducing it, as intended. Like removing a kid from an abusive home but not insuring that the foster home you put him in is a good one. Like getting out of your storm-surge vulnerable house and going to a location that isn't any less vulnerable. What happens to these kids when they are out of the army? Do they just starve, become the victims of some new round of bullies, or become bullies themselves? I'm not objecting to helping, u know, VA; I'm saying let's think things through some more. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17661

808. BahaHurican 23:09 GMT le 10 Mars 2012
LOL... Soft drinks, Beer Child armies The nature of good Some amazingly eclectic topics we are getting to today... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17661

809. WxGeekVA 23:43 GMT le 10 Mars 2012
Quoting BahaHurican: LOL... Soft drinks, Beer Child armies The nature of good Some amazingly eclectic topics we are getting to today... Better than AGW, politics, and religion! Wait.... Why did I just say that? Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3318

810. BahaHurican 23:48 GMT le 10 Mars 2012
LOL... just thought the same thing.... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17661

811. nigel20 00:27 GMT le 11 Mars 2012
Good night guys Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4538

812. nigel20 00:30 GMT le 11 Mars 2012
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4538

813. nigel20 00:40 GMT le 11 Mars 2012
what's up guys are you gone to bed? Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4538

814. nigel20 00:42 GMT le 11 Mars 2012
Not much weather related activity occured today it would seem! Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4538

815. nigel20 00:50 GMT le 11 Mars 2012
I came on at the wrong time...when noone is posting Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4538

816. CanesfanatUT 01:11 GMT le 11 Mars 2012
I thought I read on here recently that there is drought in the Sahel region of Africa. Isn't that a harbinger of a suppressed Cape Verde season?? Hope you are feeling better than me - am coming down with something. Ugh. Member Since: 3 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 459

817. hydrus 14:02 GMT le 11 Mars 2012
Quoting Jedkins01: See I drink beer when I'm just relaxing with my friends by the creek or fishing, so I drink it to enjoy it. I don't drink to get drunk, in fact I never have been drunk before. That being said, Busch beer doesn't cut it for me, lol. Come on Jed, try it again for the first time... Do it, for the proud staff at Anheuser Busch........do it for America.......do it...:) Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14297

818. hydrus 15:14 GMT le 11 Mars 2012
This will be interesting. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14297

819. WxGeekVA 15:23 GMT le 11 Mars 2012
This blog is so quiet you could hear a forecast discussion from Alaska come out.... Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3318

820. hydrus 15:51 GMT le 11 Mars 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA: This blog is so quiet you could hear a forecast discussion from Alaska come out.... From last night to this morning, it is the slowest I have ever seen it. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14297

821. WxGeekVA 19:27 GMT le 11 Mars 2012
Quoting hydrus: From last night to this morning, it is the slowest I have ever seen it. WAKE UP PEOPLE!! Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3318

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