Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:54 GMT le 08 Mars 2012 | +35 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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as a 65kts cyclone.
It got upgraded to 75kts (according to NRL)...
This was it when it was upgraded to 65kts:
Clearly weakened!
Lol... It looks the same as when it was 35 knots: A big blob of convection
Big puddle in paradise!
Notice the upper-level outflow is better-defined in the first image than in the second. That indicates that vertical shear has lessened, which could mean that the low-level center is more or less under (albeit perhaps not fully) the convective cloud shield, the satellite signature notwithstanding.
The price you pay for living in paradise?
I couldn't resist. I know I'm a smartass.
58 plus million have viewed it in 4 days and Growing.
This new Verbal conscience that has been raised has the power for much good.
We must use it wisely.
Yeah, it's really sad and he needs to be stopped.
Well, because you can look for consistencies within the model. If the GFS shows a system in the long-range, and continues to show it through about 228-240 hours, it'll probably keep it all the way up to short range.
The system that shows a major outbreak was originally depicted at 348 hours, now it is all the way down to 216 hours.
Aw shucks. Don't have to rub it in. ;)
I took a peek at 40 frames of radar and there were big storms but moving from west to east.
We've come a long way, but we need to come a lot further before we can confidently assess the weather beyond an arbitrary short-range point.
And there is nothing wrong with that. :)
One thing I do believe forecasting long-range does is help raise awareness to the public. For instance, Reed made a post earlier over the system I've talking about for several days now...
"Long-range models hinting at a massive storm system right around St Patrick's Day.. Which coincidentally I turn 32 on march 17. We'll keep an eye on it. A lot can change"
...and it gets people aware of the situation well before the threat occurs. Of course, if you happen to be wrong, people bite your head off. Lol.
That's true even with short-range forecasting, though. You can't win for losing with people. ;)
I'm sorry, but I have trouble with 27 minutes when it's 8:55 p.m. and I haven't had my supper yet...though it is in the toaster oven and I will finally have it shortly.
27 minutes is just too much to ask right now.
I'll summarize the video for you.
There is a guy in Africa named Joseph Kony. For the past 30 years, he has been kidnapping kids from their parents and making them part of his army. He forces them to kill their parents and others. The people in the video are trying to raise awareness by making websites, facebook accounts, putting posters, etc, etc.
It's really sad if you think about it. He's supposedly kidnapped 30,000 kids.
As horrible as that is (I haven't watched it either), did we really need to be made aware of something we already knew? It's not a secret that Africa is a relatively poor nation, which obviously extends to living conditions and government control as well.
DISCUSSION...
ISENTROPIC LIFT EVENT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER AZ/NM WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. DEEP MOISTURE IS FLOWING
NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND ANY STORMS WILL BE BELOW SEVERE STRENGTH. THERE WILL BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER. AT THIS TIME
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING SEEMS UNLIKELY. BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON THIS.
TEMPS WILL BE FLAT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS AROUND NORMAL
AND HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL. THEN TEMPS WILL CLIMB WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE ONE WE
HAVE NOW. COULD BE ANOTHER COLD...RAINY FEW DAYS.
Just to illustrate this, look how similar the ECMWF is at 48 and 240 hours, especially at 500 mb:
12Z @ 48 hrs.
12Z @ 240 hrs.
then he needs assassination.
Anybody that is un-armed and tries to kidnap me might get a 4" steel blade shoved into their chest(sorry had to say it) :D
You are a good boy TAX13.
I heard about that on NPR. So thank-you for the summary. By the way, that bad guy is no longer in Uganda. It is a fundraiser for the children's advocacy group which does very good work, but also is a little misleading in its presentation according to the analyists.
thanks again and I finally have something to eat!
you will understand this takes a little personal effort once you are old enough to be paying for the sins of your youth: i.e., eating foods containing too much fat and cholesterol. haha
Well, this Texas Deluge was a bit oversold. The 7.3" we were excited about is looking more like 2" over four days, which is wonderful, but myself I was looking forward to a good Texas frog-drowner.
I am thankful for every drop we get.
So we do nothing about it? What are we going to do? Well, all you should do is watch and share! Raise the awareness of this person so that action can be taken. Share the video and do whatever else you can do to get this out there!
Only we can change the world!
You completely misunderstood what I said. All I'm saying is that it's pitiful we needed a reminder. This kind of stuff is constantly going on behind the scenes, but due to how little it effects us*, the media chooses not to cover it, instead favoring other ridiculously mundane things.
One thing I learned a long time ago is that if you fancy something up to look emotional, then it will be emotional. Humankind is just hardwired in that way.
* Specifically, our economy or our morale. Not us as individuals.
We have 100 advisers there to help try to catch him. This causes a hullabaloo when Rush Limbaugh waded into the controversy last October.
okay, organic, locally grown greens (romaine and arugula), fresh sliced radishes, canned organic chick peas, left over chicken breast (that's what was heated because I wanted to make sure the stuff closer to the bone was cooked enough!), thinly sliced vidalia onion and sliced avacado topped with homemade vinagrette.
Eating spicy chicken wings and drinking beer is no longer an option! enjoy it while you can. oh yeah, a pepperoni or sausage and mushroom pizza would be nice... Or how about grilled steak with a big fat baked potato smothered in butter and sour cream?! rofl.
These are the privileges of youth so enjoy it while you can. Preferably with someone else!
I turn 21 in April, so I am still very much youthful. That being said, I maintain a fairly rigorous diet (though I slip up sometimes). I refuse to drink soft drinks, alcohol, and refuse to eat anything excessively fattening.
Aw, I'm sorry.
The way the SST's in the Gulf are setting up for hurricane season you may get more than you want, but time will tell.
with great power
comes
great responsibility
Maybe you'll live to be a hundred, Kori!
I hope you will put your life to good use.
It's just, I see my dad and step mother eat McDonalds on a weekly (sometimes more) basis. That's not counting all the junk food they consume everyday, such as Doritos, hot dogs, and microwaveable stuff.
You must have a high metabolism, because you certainly don't look fat.
Article
With the great power we have we have the responsibility to use it for good.
Not all the time! That makes the difference. Once a week or so.
5'9" 170
That's ridiculous, I could not live without soft drinks.
If you read up on them as much as I have, you would have an aversion for them as well.
Geez.
No, I could not live without Mountain Dew. Period. :P
That high-fructose corn syrup will get you!
Cody, if water isn't your thing, I strongly recommend trying vitamin water. They're 20 ounce bottles generally found at the front of most retailers/convenience stores. Yeah, the non-zero ones obviously house copious amounts of sugar (32 grams per 20 ounce bottle, depending on the flavor), but they also contain many beneficial nutrients. Much better than soft drinks.
Hm?
EVENT DETECTED
But why do I need to drink water at all? I'm fit and skinny. :P
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