Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Fourth warmest winter on record for the U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:54 GMT le 08 Mars 2012

+35

February is gone, and the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 is the history books as the fourth warmest in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center yesterday. The winter average temperature of 36.8°F was just 0.4°F cooler than the warmest winter on record, the winter of 1999 - 2000. If you lived in the Northern Plains, Midwest, Southeast and Northeast, it seemed like winter never really arrived this year--27 states in this region had top-ten warmest winters. Across the U.S., only New Mexico (41st coolest) and Alaska (35th coolest) had winter temperatures colder than average. According to NOAA's Climate Extremes Index, the percent area of the U.S. experiencing extremes in warm maximum temperatures (top 10% on record) was 49 percent--the 4th highest value since the index began being computed in 1911. Jackson, Kentucky, Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, and Trenton, New Jersey all had their warmest winter on record.

Figure 1. Contiguous U.S. temperature rankings for the winter of 2011 - 2012 (the months of December - January - February.) The 117-year period of record begins in 1895, and each state is given a ranking based on how cold this winter was, relative to the other 116 years. Thus, a ranking of 116 means it was the 2nd warmest winter on record. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Figure 2. Contiguous U.S. temperatures for winter (the months of December - January - February), from 1895 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 was the 4th warmest winter on record, behind 2000, 1999, and 1992. Winter temperatures have increased by abot 1.7°F per century (red linear trend line.) Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Third least snowy winter on record for the contiguous U.S.
Warm and dry conditions during the winter of 2011 - 2012 led to snow cover extent that was the 3rd lowest in the 46-year satellite record, according to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab. Snowfall was particularly low across parts of the West, where much of California, Nevada, and Arizona had a snowpack less than half of average. Fortunately, the West had a near-record snowpack the previous winter, so this year's lack on snow will not cause serious water availability problems during the summer. In the Upper Midwest, the lack of a winter snowpack will substantially reduce the chances of spring flooding along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers. NOAA issues their annual spring flood outlook on March 15, and it is likely to show a much lower risk of flooding compared to last year, when 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year floods hit much of the Missouri and Lower Mississippi rivers. However, the remarkably low snow cover this winter over the Upper Midwest will allow soils to dry out much more quickly than usual, leading to increased chances of summer drought. The latest Drought Monitor map shows moderate to severe drought covering nearly all of Minnesota and Northwest Iowa; these regions are at high risk of suffering damaging drought conditions during the summer growing season.

Figure 3. State-by-state rankings of precipitation for the winter of 2011 - 2012. Four Western states had a top-ten driest winters on record, and Kansas had a top-ten wettest winter. Drought-stricken Texas, which entered the winter expecting drier than average conditions, since it was a La Niña year, lucked out, getting an unusually wet winter. Records go back to 1895. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

A very mild winter for the Midwest
If you live in the Midwest, you saved a bundle this winter on heating and snow removal costs. In Minneapolis, where the low temperature falls below 0°F an average of 30 days each year, the temperature fell below zero on just two days. These days were January 18 and 19, when the low hit -1°F and -11°F, respectively. Since record keeping began in 1891, only one other winter has had so few below-zero days--the winter of 2001 - 2002. Third place is held by the winter of 1930 - 1931, with six below-zero days. Minneapolis has seen half of its usual snowfall this winter--just 22.1" as of March 7, which is 22.1" below the average of 44.2". The least snowy winter for Minneapolis occurred in the winter of 1930 - 1931, when just 14.2" of snow fell on the city.

Chicago has also seen far less snow than usual--just 19.8" as of March 7, 11.8" below their average. In a normal winter, there are 13 days with sub-zero temperatures in Chicago. The coldest it got in Chicago this winter was a relatively balmy 5°F on January 19. This is just one degree cooler than the warmest winter low temperature ever recorded in the city, which is 6°F. Here is a list of the winters in Chicago that have had no sub-zero temperatures, with the coldest temperature of the winter shown in parentheses:

1930-31 (6°F)
1959-60 (6°F)
1905-06 (6°F)
2011-12 (5°F)
1982-83 (3°F)
1938-39 (2°F)
1955-56 (2°F)
1931-32 (1°F)
1881-82 (1°F)
1936-37 (1°F)

NCDC's Dr. Deke Arndt has a two-minute video discussing the reasons for this year's warm winter. The primary factor was the position of the jet stream, which lay much farther north than usual.

I'll be back Monday at the latest with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Mild Winter (26mileman)

With mild temps people are out riding their bikes.

March 6-7 aurora in Palmer Alaska (alaskario)

A Little Light... (ceocrocker)

Amazing what sunlight, river debris and a little skim of ice can produce!

Categories: Climate Summaries

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151. SPLbeater 20:35 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting pottery: Ouch! Be Careful! A friend of mine did that 2 weeks ago. A 4 hour operation to install a stainless steel brace with screws and bolts to hold the bone in place has gone pretty well...... Bad stuff. it hurt for 5 mins, but just a big bruise on my left knee and right shin bone is all. notin I cant handle :) Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953

152. nrtiwlnvragn 20:36 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting Grothar: That certainly answered my question... I think! Thanks nr. Only issue, CMC Ensemble always shows cyclones Don't know where to find GFS Parallel output anymore since they got rid of the old NCEP model run page. Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8923

153. SPLbeater 20:36 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting KeyWestSun: What are the names of those several good meteorologists of whom you were referring to yesterday that think this upcoming severe weather season will be really bad? One of them good meteorologists was SPLbeater, im sure of that... Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953

154. Grothar 20:36 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting SPLbeater: that reminds me, 10 minutes ago i fell on the stairs. HARD. Stop running in the halls. You kids are all alike. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527

156. pottery 20:40 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting Grothar: Here's a little something for you, pott. I think only a few here might even remember this. We are finally getting rain for the first time in months. Good one. The wife came in and said "wow... haven't heard that in a long time!" Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

157. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 20:41 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting hydrus: This is worth checking out. VERY strange screaming noise coming from the sky at Venice beach, Florida...Link Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40497

159. aspectre 20:44 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
18 KeyWestSun "Wow. You're almost as old as Grothar! Haha." 21 pottery "Nothing is as old as Grothar....." In the Beginning, Grothar looked upon the Face of the Void and said, "God, is that boring." And God replied, "Oy vey, just got here and kibbitzing already. Oh very well... Let There Be Light." 81 DocNDswamp [quoting the StormPredictionCenter] "...the increase in tornado reports over the last 54 years is almost entirely due to secular trends..." So can we blame WhirlingDervishes for the nonsecular remainder of tornadoes? Or do we hafta continue looking for other sectarian causes? Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

160. Grothar 20:44 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Only issue, CMC Ensemble always shows cyclones Don't know where to find GFS Parallel output anymore since they got rid of the old NCEP model run page. Are you talking about the NOAA site? I can't find anything anymore. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527

161. SPLbeater 20:44 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting KeyWestSun: :) :D Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953

162. Jedkins01 20:45 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting 1900hurricane: No idea why that was posted, but I laughed! Sounds like something I would say. :P I'm known for spontaneous humor completely irrelevant to current subject matter :) Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

163. 1900hurricane 20:48 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting Jedkins01: I'm known for spontaneous humor completely irrelevant to current subject matter :) Cool by me! Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10365

164. MAweatherboy1 20:52 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
It is WINDY here today! High fire danger also: A town about 45 mins northwest of me has 4 houses on fire with more in jeapordy- the wind is really fanning everything. Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6362

165. nrtiwlnvragn 20:53 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting Grothar: Are you talking about the NOAA site? I can't find anything anymore. Yes, the old NOAA site where the NAM, GFS and others were located. Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8923

166. 1900hurricane 20:54 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CST THU MAR 08 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...AND FAR NWRN LA/SWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 082028Z - 082130Z THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ORGANIZED STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH ANY STRONG/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE THREATS INCLUDING HAIL...AND EVEN DAMAGING WINDS OR A TORNADO. THE LATTER THREATS ARE CONDITIONAL ON A STORM REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND/OR TRACKING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING SE-E OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX FROM NAVARRO TO VAN ZANDT COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MIDLEVEL CAP REMAINING ACROSS NERN TX WHICH LIKELY HAS BEEN SUSTAINED BY SUBSIDENCE WITHIN SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT STORM INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCED ASCENT ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STORM MOTIONS THAT KEEP ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2. STORMS LOCATED OVER NERN TX MAY TEND TO BE UNDERCUT...AND THUS TRANSITION INTO A HAIL THREAT AS THIS ACTIVITY BECOMES ELEVATED. FARTHER NE TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AND INTO NWRN LA/SWRN AR...SLOWER FRONTAL ADVANCEMENT AND STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WOULD SUGGEST STORMS FORMING IN THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE A GREAT POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST UPDRAFTS MAY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO BE MORE ROBUST UNTIL AIDED BY FRONTAL ASCENT...AND THUS PROVE TO BE AN ADDITIONAL INHIBITOR TO GREATER STORM COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 03/08/2012 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 31459730 32709600 33189542 33909451 34069378 33859311 33119280 32439364 31559510 30999654 31029715 31459730 Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10365

167. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 20:55 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40497

168. nigel20 20:58 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Later guys Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4530

169. pottery 21:00 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: It is WINDY here today! High fire danger also: A town about 45 mins northwest of me has 4 houses on fire with more in jeapordy- the wind is really fanning everything. We started cutting a 20' wide fire trace around our property this week. If the rain keeps up, we won't need it, but that will be a first! One year I was watching the fire rage beyond the trace, when I heard a noise behind me in the dried leaves inside my property.... the fire outside had lit some dried Bromelliads 30' up in a tree over my head and the wind had blown the burning things behind me. Fires are NOT nice. And we fight them every year. Some of the he land around here is abandoned sugar estates (cane) that is now 10' high grass. Prime fuel. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

170. MAweatherboy1 21:04 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting pottery: We started cutting a 20' wide fire trace around our property this week. If the rain keeps up, we won't need it, but that will be a first! One year I was watching the fire rage beyond the trace, when I heard a noise behind me in the dried leaves inside my property.... the fire outside had lit some dried Bromelliads 30' up in a tree over my head and the wind had blown the burning things behind me. Fires are NOT nice. And we fight them every year. Some of the he land around here is abandoned sugar estates (cane) that is now 10' high grass. Prime fuel. What state are you from? That's a pretty major project, but certainly would be worth it if fire threatened... Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6362

171. SPLbeater 21:04 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
I sense a lurker amongst us.... Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953

172. txjac 21:08 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting SPLbeater: I sense a lurker amongst us.... Dang ...took a shower this morning ... I'm here at work lurking as usual Member Since: 24 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1566

173. pottery 21:09 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: What state are you from? That's a pretty major project, but certainly would be worth it if fire threatened... The island of Trinidad. 11n 61w And yes, fire is a real threat every dry season, Jan-May. But so far it has been raining so the place is still green. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

174. FLWeatherFreak91 21:09 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
A nice little sea breeze boundary is evident on Tampa radar with this summertime weather pattern. As the moisture from the Atlantic continues to work its way westward, we may see a slight increase in the number of showers across the area in the next couple of hours right along the coast of west central Florida. Member Since: 1 décembre 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

175. JNCali 21:15 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
any word from out TX bloggers? Raining cats and cows or what?? Member Since: 9 septembre 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1031

176. txjac 21:16 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting JNCali: any word from out TX bloggers? Raining cats and cows or what?? In Houston here ..no rain as of yet ...lots of gray clouds threatening ...it was sprinkling this morning when I walked the dog Member Since: 24 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1566

177. DavidHOUTX 21:21 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting JNCali: any word from out TX bloggers? Raining cats and cows or what?? Nothing to much yet. I am expecting it start going downhill later this evening Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 292

178. Jedkins01 21:25 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting hydrus: This is worth checking out. VERY strange screaming noise coming from the sky at Venice beach, Florida...Link I wouldn't trust videos of something like that mainly cause people could easily fake the noise. However, I myself have heard what other people might also be hearing. I did have an experience hearing a loud metallic noise about 6 months ago, it sort of startled me because I couldn't figure out what made the noise and where it came from, it sounded as if to be coming from every direction and it was unlike anything Ive ever heard or know of that could make such noise. Being that I'm not a panicky individual though, I didn't let it freak me out, however over the last couple months I came to find I'm not the only one that's heard something like that, apparently its global. I don't know much about these odd noises, and what could be the cause. Hopefully there will be some eventual scientific research on it if the phenomenon continues to occur. My best guess is its probably something geological, I would imagine. Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

179. nrtiwlnvragn 21:26 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
‘Average’ hurricane season likely says experts Excerpts: The National Hurricane Center’s new director, Bill Read, said this week that they expect an average season, with 12 tropical systems, and around 6 becoming hurricanes, in contrast with last year’s busy season in which there were 19 storms. Read attributed this likelihood to the fact that sea surface temperatures is forecast to be cooler this year than in 2011. However, all these predictions aside, Read told reporters while attending the March 5 conference with representatives of other federal agencies to discuss hurricane forecasting and warning, that there was very little confidence in a forecast issued this far ahead of the season. "My guys don't think seasonal forecasts have any meaningfulness," he added, saying the Hurricane Center is focused on warning people so they get out of harm's way. Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8923

180. entrelac 21:26 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting JNCali: any word from out TX bloggers? Raining cats and cows or what?? In Austin a small shower passed through. We're not expecting the real rain until tonight. Member Since: 18 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

181. DavidHOUTX 21:28 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
The radar is starting to get nasty! Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 292

182. MAweatherboy1 21:28 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CST THU MAR 08 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 082054Z - 082200Z AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF SRN OK. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 2030Z RADAR LOOP SHOWS INTENSIFICATION OF ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS OVER SRN OK. THIS IS OCCURRING WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION ZONE...ROOTED NEAR 1.5-2 KM AGL AND AIDED BY 30 KTS OF SWLY FLOW /PER REGIONAL VWP DATA/. WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE /7 DEG C PER KM/ AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR 50 KTS...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ORGANIZED/STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY N OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE MIDLEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND FOCUSED AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEAR TO BE MAXIMIZED /PER 20Z RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE MARGINAL WITH NWD PROGRESSION...WITH TSTMS RAPIDLY MOVING N-NEWD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEAR TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A WW ATTM. ..ROGERS.. 03/08/2012 ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33909508 33799621 33889742 34039809 34259845 34799829 35119778 35149698 35069632 35049589 34779515 34429460 34039464 33909508 Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6362

183. Jedkins01 21:30 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: A nice little sea breeze boundary is evident on Tampa radar with this summertime weather pattern. As the moisture from the Atlantic continues to work its way westward, we may see a slight increase in the number of showers across the area in the next couple of hours right along the coast of west central Florida. Possibly, moisture might be high but we have a pretty stable environment and a pretty stout cap, so I wouldn't expect much more than some short lived, low topped showers. Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

184. FLWeatherFreak91 21:33 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting Jedkins01: Possibly, moisture might be high but we have a pretty stable environment and a pretty stout cap, so I wouldn't expect much more than some short lived, low topped showers. Yeah, there are already isolated to scattered showers across Polk county Member Since: 1 décembre 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

185. Patrap 21:37 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
I cant believe Im doing this, but from FOX Sunstorm Watch: Planes rerouted as massive solar storm brushes by Earth Published March 08, 2012 FoxNews.com The largest solar storm in five years -- spawned by a double whammy of flares from the sun -- has engulfed the Earth, but scientists say the planet has lucked out, largely missing the predicted dangers. The storm arrived more peacefully Thursday morning than it could have. Scientists say that could change as the storm spends the day shaking the planet's magnetic field. Airlines and power grid operators were warned of potential issues from the storm -- and some reported taking precautionary steps just in case. We are flying alternate routes for seven flights, Anthony Black, a spokesman for Delta Airlines, told FoxNews.com. Polar flights -- those with paths that cross over the North Pole -- can suffer from communications issues and pilots and passengers can be exposed to radiation. To avoid that, Delta switched to preplanned alternate routes for several westbound flights between U.S. cities such as Atlanta, Minneapolis and New York City and Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Nagoya. It may be 15 to 20 minutes of additional time, Black said. Joseph Kunches, a space weather scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center, said the agency may have overestimated the effects of the blast. We expected the freight train. The freight train has gone by, is still going by, and now we're watching to see how this all shakes out, Kunches said. The challenge: the agency can't anticipated the orientation of the magnetic field within the charged particles sent from the sun. "There has been no impact to the bulk power system from the recent solar flare." - North American Electric Reliability Corporation spokeswoman Kimber Mielcarek "We estimated the speed but we missed the spin on the ball,he said. Ed Martell, a spokesman for American Airlines, said the company was watching the activity closely. "We are monitoring the solar flare activity, and while we've not changed any routings, we are using lower altitudes for any flights routed above 60 degrees North," he told FoxNews.com. In a study released last week, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation -- an organization certified by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission -- noted that the most likely outcome from a severe solar storm would be the loss of reactive power. But a spokesman was quick to point out that they have so far seen no effects to the grid. Currently there has been no impact to the bulk power system from the recent solar flare, Kimber Mielcarek, a representative for the NERC, told FoxNews.com. The NERC will continue its normal pattern of 24/7 monitoring, especially in regard to the current solar storm. Utilities also continue their normal monitoring pattern of transmission and distribution facilities for any abnormal energy flows and are prepared to take all appropriate actions to maintain reliability. These reports were confirmed by major power utilities who seemed unaffected by the sun's cosmic belch. A representative from MidAmerican Energy Company, Iowa's largest energy company that serves several major markets in the Midwest, said that it was experiencing no problems from this morning's storm. "We experienced no impact from the solar activity that occurred this morning and last month," Tina Potthoff told FoxNews.com. "We are confident our electrical system is prepared to respond to this type of an event. We continuously review our emergency response processes to ensure effective deployment when required." Southern Company, an Atlanta-based energy firm that serves 4.4 million customers in the Southeast, also reported no problems. "We were notified about the solar disturbance earlier this week," a spokesman at the firm told FoxNews.com. "We don't expect the solar flare to disrupt electricity here." In a press briefing Thursday morning, Kunches said the solar flare or coronal mass ejection (CME) had hit the planet and the agency was closely monitoring its effects. The CME passed the 'A' satellite a million miles upstream -- the first sentinel up there -- at about 3:45 a.m. MST this morning, he said. That blast of charged particles had a 59 nanotesla impact -- "that's a pretty good shock," Kunches said. The storm started with a massive solar flare earlier in the week and grew as it raced outward from the sun. The storm arrived at Earth about 6 a.m. EST (1100GMT). The cosmic double whammy came from the sun late in the day on March 6, two major X-class flares (the strongest that the sun can have) that capped a busy Tuesday of powerful solar storms. Super Tuesday? You bet! joked Kunches. By some measures this is the strongest one since December of 2006, Kunches explained. The impacts so far have been on par for an event such as this. The upside to a solar tsunami? Some areas may experience a wonderful display of the Northern Lights. It's the treat that we get when the sun erupts, he said. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111400

186. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 21:41 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: ‘Average’ hurricane season likely says experts Excerpts: The National Hurricane Center’s new director, Bill Read, said this week that they expect an average season, with 12 tropical systems, and around 6 becoming hurricanes, in contrast with last year’s busy season in which there were 19 storms. Read attributed this likelihood to the fact that sea surface temperatures is forecast to be cooler this year than in 2011. However, all these predictions aside, Read told reporters while attending the March 5 conference with representatives of other federal agencies to discuss hurricane forecasting and warning, that there was very little confidence in a forecast issued this far ahead of the season. "My guys don't think seasonal forecasts have any meaningfulness," he added, saying the Hurricane Center is focused on warning people so they get out of harm's way. thats the numbers i expected i see the same with a little more detail 11 to 14 systems 5 to 7 become canes 1 to 3 intense canes but it only takes 1 to do the deed Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40497

187. Patrap 21:44 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
20 years ago this August 24th the "A" Storm Hit Florida with Devastating Power. Prepare now and be ready in advance. Preparation is the only Hedge Bet against the Hurricane, as well as a good evacuation Plan to compliment it. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111400

188. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 21:51 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
another two months then the garishing of teeth the hair pulling and stomping of feet season commences Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40497

189. Cotillion 21:51 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Not sure if posted, but: Whole of Kiribati putting contingencies in place to move entire nation due to rising sea levels Incredible. Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300

190. Tropicsweatherpr 21:51 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: %u2018Average%u2019 hurricane season likely says experts Excerpts: The National Hurricane Center%u2019s new director, Bill Read, said this week that they expect an average season, with 12 tropical systems, and around 6 becoming hurricanes, in contrast with last year%u2019s busy season in which there were 19 storms. Read attributed this likelihood to the fact that sea surface temperatures is forecast to be cooler this year than in 2011. However, all these predictions aside, Read told reporters while attending the March 5 conference with representatives of other federal agencies to discuss hurricane forecasting and warning, that there was very little confidence in a forecast issued this far ahead of the season. "My guys don't think seasonal forecasts have any meaningfulness," he added, saying the Hurricane Center is focused on warning people so they get out of harm's way. Bill Read is right. Look at how cold those waters are in the MDR. Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8159

191. JRRP 21:56 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
my # 13 TS 7 H 4 MH Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4305

192. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 21:57 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
compare maps MDR Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40497

193. Tropicsweatherpr 21:58 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
My numbers for 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season. 12/7/3 Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8159

194. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 21:59 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40497

195. JNCali 22:00 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
"Quoting nrtiwlnvragn: Average hurricane season likely says experts Excerpts: The National Hurricane Center%u2019s new director, Bill Read, said this week that they expect an average season.....Read attributed this likelihood to the fact that sea surface temperatures is forecast to be cooler this year than in 2011.... "My guys don't think seasonal forecasts have any meaningfulness," he added, saying the Hurricane Center is focused on warning people so they get out of harm's way."" So what the hill are we talking about?! May as well leave it up to Las Vegas casinos to provide a seasonal estimate on 'canes! Since the experts don't put any credibility on the their forecasting.. Let me know what I'm missing here... Member Since: 9 septembre 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1031

196. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:01 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
nino nina regions Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40497

197. hydrus 22:02 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting Grothar: I just think it was some guy who fell off a skateboard and landed on a railing. I've made the same sound once or twice myself. I have fallen off a skateboard, but thankfully not on a railing. Good afternoon Gro. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14284

198. Patrap 22:10 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Climatology usually wins out as we see early development usually in the Bay Of Campeche or the Yucatan to Gulf Stream warmer currents.. 2012 2011 Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111400

199. JNCali 22:11 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting hydrus: I have fallen off a skateboard, but thankfully not on a railing. Good afternoon Gro. Ha.. I remeber my skateboard.. it had metal wheels and did not take kindly to the tiniest of pebbles, twigs, cracks...etc Member Since: 9 septembre 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1031

200. JNCali 22:15 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
This just popped: Areal Flood Advisory Statement as of 3:58 PM CST on March 08, 2012 The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a * Flood Advisory for... Benton County in middle Tennessee... this includes the city of Camden... Cheatham County in middle Tennessee... this includes the city of Ashland City... Davidson County in middle Tennessee... this includes the city of Nashville... Dickson County in middle Tennessee... this includes the city of Dickson... Houston County in middle Tennessee... this includes the city of Erin... Humphreys County in middle Tennessee... this includes the city of Waverly... Macon County in middle Tennessee... this includes the city of Lafayette... Montgomery County in middle Tennessee... this includes the city of Clarksville... Robertson County in middle Tennessee... this includes the city of Springfield... northwestern Rutherford County in middle Tennessee... Stewart County in middle Tennessee... this includes the city of Dover... Sumner County in middle Tennessee... this includes the city of Gallatin... northwestern Trousdale County in middle Tennessee... this includes the city of Hartsville... northwestern Wilson County in middle Tennessee... * until 945 PM CST * at 355 PM CST Weather Service radar shows moderate to heavy rainfall along a slow moving cold front in middle Tennessee. The cold front has pushed south of Interstate 40... west of the plateau. Additional rainfall on saturated grounds in northwest middle Tennessee will continue to produce minor flooding. There have been some minor issues with flooding... such as a few water covered roads in residential areas. Small stream will be elevated. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Expect additional rainfall of one inch with storm total rainfall of one to three inches in the advisory area. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on small creeks and streams... and ponding of water in urban areas... highways... streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage areas and low lying spots. Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Move to higher ground. A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated or ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent. Lat... Lon 3664 8784 3666 8635 3662 8583 3597 8663 3604 8680 3605 8693 3599 8704 3604 8705 3605 8718 3596 8721 3599 8753 3589 8771 3585 8822 3612 8821 3626 8809 3636 8810 3637 8801 3644 8807 3668 8807 04 Member Since: 9 septembre 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1031

201. hydrus 22:17 GMT le 08 Mars 2012
Quoting JNCali: Ha.. I remeber my skateboard.. it had metal wheels and did not take kindly to the tiniest of pebbles, twigs, cracks...etc I had a few of those. Made them from old roller skate wheels. I rode them until the wheels were literally worn to the nub. Bought my first "real" skateboard in 78. It had sealed bearings, non-skid on top and treated rubber wheels for traction and durability. I loved it and it lasted for years...Even after being run over by a car.:) Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14284

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