Torrential rains in Oklahoma; Summer in March continues for Midwest
A significant flood event is underway in Eastern Oklahoma, where widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches have fallen since yesterday. Up to four more inches of rain is likely today, and the National Weather Service in Tulsa is warning of the potential for "widespread and potentially catastrophic areal flooding and river flooding" should some of the higher rainfall amounts being forecast materialize. Numerous main-stem rivers across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas are now approaching flood stage, and will likely experience moderate to major flooding into Wednesday. Rainfall has also been heavy over Eastern Texas, with widespread amounts of 2 - 4 inches. These heavy rains are causing some street flooding, but in general, will be a benefit, as moderate to severe drought conditions still cover most of the region.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for Eastern Oklahoma since March 19, 2012, as estimated by the Tulsa, Oklahoma radar.
The storm system responsible is a massive, slow-moving trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. that is colliding with the warmest and moistest air mass ever recorded in March in the Central and Eastern U.S. According to the NWS in Minneapolis, Minnesota, moisture flowing northwards into Minnesota along the cold front early this week had the highest levels of moisture ever recorded so early in the year. At the boundary between the Western U.S. trough of low pressure and Central U.S. ridge of high pressure, a cold front is lifting huge quantities of moisture-laden air aloft, forcing torrential rains to fall. The cold front is also expected to trigger a Slight Risk of severe weather over East Texas, Western Louisiana, and Southern Arkansas today, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Severe thunderstorm watches are already posted for much of East Texas, as seen on our Severe Weather Map. Three tornadoes were reported yesterday in Texas, and eleven touched down the previous day in Oklahoma, Nebraska, and South Dakota. The tornado that hit North Platte, Nebraska two days ago was rated a strong EF-3, and injured four people.
Figure 2. Predicted rainfall amounts for the 2-day period Tuesday morning through Thursday morning show an area of 3+ inches (orange colors) is expected over Eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Southwest Missouri. Image credit: NOAA HPC.
Summer in March continues for the Midwest
The ongoing March heat wave in the Midwest will continue to set all-time heat records through Thursday, gradually shifting its peak intensity eastwards during the week. A few highlights from yesterday's records:
Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula is called "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state, and in the entire nation. But the past three days, Pellston has topped out at 80° - 82°F, the first 80°F March days in their history. Yesterday's 82° reading broke the previous record for the date (56° in 1976) by an amazing 26°, and was 44°F above average. Nearby Traverse City hit 83°F yesterday, the third consecutive day the city has experienced its hottest March temperature on record.
International Falls, Minnesota hit 78°F yesterday, 42° above average, and the 2nd hottest March temperature on record in the Nation's Icebox. The record of 79°F was set the previous day. Remarkably, the low temperature for International Falls bottomed out at 60°F yesterday, tying the previous record high for the date. I've never seen a station with a century-long data record have its low temperature for the date match the previous record high for the date. Yesterday was the seventh consecutive day that International Falls broke or tied a daily record. That is spectacularly hard to do for a station with a century-long weather record. The longest string of consecutive records being broken I'm aware of is nine days in a row, set June 2 - 10, 1911 in Tulsa, Oklahoma (with weather records going back to 1905.) International Falls has a good chance of surpassing nine consecutive records this week.
Record heat in Canada
Record-breaking heat has also penetrated into the Prairie provinces of Canada over the past week. Winnipeg, Manitoba has broken its record high for the past five days in a row, and hit 24°C (75.2°F) yesterday, its hottest March temperature on record. Forecast high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday across Ontario are near 26°C, which will threaten the records for hottest March day in history for Windsor, London, Hamilton, and Toronto.
Figure 3. The jet stream pattern features a large, southwards dipping bulge over the Western U.S., creating a trough of low pressure with cold and snow, and a large, northwards looping bulge over the Central U.S., creating a record-strength ridge of high pressure.
Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. This jet stream pattern is too extreme to be stable, and the big loop over the Western U.S. will break off and form a giant eddy on Wednesday. The resulting area of low pressure will be known as a "cut-off low", because it will be cut off from the jet stream. The cut-off low will drift slowly eastwards during the week, gradually bringing an end to "Summer in March" over the Eastern half of the U.S.
Jeff Masters
First and last snow of winter !
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 — Blog Index
They're talking about another round coming across from the west around the ULL later tonight, but atmosphere has been worked over pretty well, unless the sun starts coming out late today maybe something will pop, out in the hill country
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NATCHITOCHES...
* UNTIL 130 PM CDT
* AT 1250 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
NATCHITOCHES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
You and I both. They have been completely off on everything I have seen
This would be true, if weather patterns were ordinary. I don't think they are anymore.
--Pelliston, Michigan, is at 82 now, making this the fourth consecutive day a new March monthly record has been set (Saturday's high: 80; Sunday: 81; Monday: 82)
--Chicago has hit 83, a new March monthly record. Today is also the sixth day this month there with a temperature at or above 80 degrees. Since 1871, only 16 March days in Chicago have reached 80; six of those have occurred in the past week.
--International Falls has reached 61 already, tieing the record for the date. That means 10 of this month's 20 days have reached a record high.
Where?
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/Quakes/pt12080001.php#details
Quake occurred at 18:02 UTC - 22 minutes ago.
The coin keeps landing heads up.
Just two days off.
I'm... intrigued.
Epicenter 119miles(191kilometres) west of Oaxaca,Mexico
4miles(6.4kilometres) northwest of San Juan Cacahuatepec
Magnitude
7.6
Date-Time
Tuesday, March 20, 2012 at 18:02:48 UTC
Tuesday, March 20, 2012 at 12:02:48 PM at epicenter
Location
16.662%uFFFDN, 98.188%uFFFDW
Depth
17.5 km (10.9 miles)
Region
OAXACA, MEXICO
Distances
25 km (15 miles) E (95%uFFFD) from Ometepec, Guerrero, Mexico
42 km (26 miles) NNW (335%uFFFD) from Pinotepa Nacional, Oaxaca, Mexico
87 km (54 miles) SW (219%uFFFD) from Tlaxiaco, Oaxaca, Mexico
162 km (101 miles) WSW (255%uFFFD) from Oaxaca, Oaxaca, Mexico
186 km (115 miles) E (96%uFFFD) from Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico
Location Uncertainty
horizontal /- 15.8 km (9.8 miles); depth /- 6.5 km (4.0 miles)
Parameters
NST=438, Nph=440, Dmin=312.8 km, Rmss=0.88 sec, Gp= 79%uFFFD,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0008m6h
Magnitude 7.6
Date-Time
Tuesday, March 20, 2012 at 18:02:48 UTC
Tuesday, March 20, 2012 at 12:02:48 PM at epicenter
Location 16.662°N, 98.188°W
Depth 17.5 km (10.9 miles)
Region OAXACA, MEXICO
Distances
25 km (15 miles) E (95°) from Ometepec, Guerrero, Mexico
42 km (26 miles) NNW (335°) from Pinotepa Nacional, Oaxaca, Mexico
87 km (54 miles) SW (219°) from Tlaxiaco, Oaxaca, Mexico
162 km (101 miles) WSW (255°) from Oaxaca, Oaxaca, Mexico
186 km (115 miles) E (96°) from Acapulco, Guerrero, Mexico
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 15.8 km (9.8 miles); depth +/- 6.5 km (4.0 miles)
Parameters NST=438, Nph=440, Dmin=312.8 km, Rmss=0.88 sec, Gp= 79°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID usc0008m6h
Mexico 7.6
Indonesia 6.2
If you had accounted for the leap year with an extra day, deducted 3 days for the M7.1 solar flare followed by an X1.2 your prediction would have been perfect. You have to extrapolate the timing between the flares from the length of timing of the solar wind hitting earth.
Congratulations on a job well done. Here, try this next time.
A(cos(na) N) A sin(na)
h(a) = -------------------- g(a) = -------------------- (2)
1 N^2 2N cos(na) 1 N^2 2N cos(na)
My county held a big tornado preparedness drill today, every school and county agency was involved. of course, the simulated tornado would go directly over my house... o.0
Fairfax County Tornado Drill
6.2 PAPUA, INDONESIA
Date-Time
Tuesday, March 20, 2012 at 17:56:19 UTC
Wednesday, March 21, 2012 at 02:56:19 AM at epicenter
Location
3.830°S, 140.220°E
Depth
66.9 km (41.6 miles)
Region
7.6 OAXACA, MEXICO
Date-Time
Tuesday, March 20, 2012 at 18:02:48 UTC
Tuesday, March 20, 2012 at 12:02:48 PM at epicenter
Location
16.662°N, 98.188°W
Depth
17.5 km (10.9 miles)
Region
Was a state wide thing geek.
Update at 2:21 p.m. ET: The U.S. Geological Survey puts the center of the quake 115 miles east of Acapulco. It puts the initial magnitude at 7.9.
I swear your state gots something against me having dry ground lol.
For the last 3 days, a sneaky thunderstorm cluster has moved south from central VA during the mid-night hours and drenched my area, leaving standing water everywhere. And I cant practice my football stuff with it wet! :D
And now you know.
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Scientists_dete ct_seismic_signals_from_tornado_999.html
WEATHER REPORT
Scientists detect seismic signals from tornado
by Staff Writers
Bloomington IN (SPX) Mar 16, 2012
While seismographs have been known to detect seismic activity related to tornadoes, it is highly unusual to have state-of-the-art digital instruments recording information in such close proximity to a tornado, the researchers say.
An Indiana University geophysical experiment detected unusual seismic signals associated with tornadoes that struck regions across the Midwest last week - information that may have value for meteorologists studying the atmospheric activity that precedes tornado disasters.
(truncated for copyright)
Remember the guy who said something about large earthquakes every 188 days? This is day 187!!!
DOOM!!!
Ah, so it was. Either way, I told everyone that in the event of a real tornado, I would be calling the NWS to report it and then going outside to videotape it on my phone!!
I hope there really isn't serious damage! Hard to believe for a shallow 7.6 quake.
That's simply unbelievable
evenin nigel
Generally true for all systems: When there are substantial changes in the mean and/or variations of the inputs, unforseeable and radical changes are to be expected in the dynamics that connect the subsystems, and similarly radical changes can be expected in the operation of the whole.
Happle that there will be some improvement in the drought in Texas
Study: 5 million face increased flooding risk
The eastern caribbean is long overdue for a big quake. IMO
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/
Eh. Not my prediction. Even if there is an axis shifting quake on the 22nd I'm skeptical as to what it would really show. I am skeptical and curious if there are "meaningful" relationships between sets of earthquakes. Like the way there are meaningful relationships if we look at weather phenomena, cliff collapses, or ocean currents.
I do however think that there's more "curio" than "meaning" in the 322 stuff. There are hundreds of 6.0 and 7.0 quakes as well as many older massive quakes that undoubtedly shifted earth's axis. There are groups of quakes that do not fit any pattern or that form their own sub sets. If we stare at something long enough countless patterns will emerge. But can the set point to a usable relationship or is it just interesting anomalous data?
Viewing: 51 - 101
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 — Blog Index