Hard freeze likely to significantly damage Midwest fruit trees

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:13 GMT le 26 Mars 2012

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After a week of temperatures in the 70s and 80s last week, it was a rude awakening for Michigan this morning, as temperatures across all but the extreme southern portions of the state dropped below freezing. Tonight, far colder temperatures in the low to mid-20s are expected across the entire state, and frosts and freezes are also expected in all of Ohio, plus portions of Indiana, Kentucky, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, North Carolina, Maryland, Washington D.C., and New Jersey. A hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) will cause widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last week's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Temperatures as hot as 90° hit Michigan last week, and the National Weather Service in Detroit called the "Summer in March" heat wave "perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago."


Figure 1. Frost and freeze advisories (white colors) are posted today for all of Lower Michigan and all of Ohio, plus portions of Indiana, Kentucky, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, North Carolina, Washington D.C., and New Jersey. Although freezing temperatures in the extreme Northeast are also expected, the growing season there has not yet begun, since last week's heat was not long-enough lived in that part of the country. Image taken from wunderground's severe weather map.

Fruit trees at risk
Tonight's hard freeze poses a significant danger to the region's fruit industry, and growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries are gearing up to battle the freezing temperatures by operating large fans and propane heaters in orchards in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. The situation this week is similar to what occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops. In an interview with citizensvoice.com, Ian Merwin, Ph.D., a horticulturist who specializes in tree fruit at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y., said, "I'm pretty sure this will be the earliest bloom, going back at least to the early 1900s. We are definitely in a very risky situation right now for the fruit crop in the whole Northeast."

Jeff Masters

Cherry Blossoms (KEM)
Cherry blossoms in Washington, DC.
Cherry Blossoms
Pretty In Pink (THudgins)
A little hazy today, but still a good day to take in some views of the Apple Blossoms along route 45.
Pretty In Pink

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Quoting txjac:


Too easy to blame just fossil fuels. How many of us here on the blog carpool to work or getting the kids to school or extra activities ...how many are driving 8 cyclinder vehicles? How many driving hybrids? How many are recycling? How many are making numerous trips to the stores ...take a bike or walk a time or two?

One thing that has always bothered me is that I must pass an emissions test yearly. If I can pass I'm not on the road. Why are large trucks and semi's exempt from that ...they are the ones belching the black smoke in the air.

Things are being looked in to and starting to be used. Solar, wind ...fricton from cars on roads being turned in to power cities (I believe that this is being tested in Isreal) some others are working on an algae substance as a replacement for fossil fuels.


Exactly. The base is there. We just have to build on it.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's already changing. Baby steps. When President Kennedy said we would put a man on the Moon in 10 years, a rocket didn't just fall out of the sky. We built it. We researched what we needed to do and found a way to do it. Was it easy? No. Will stopping global warming be easy? No. Did we put a man on the Moon? Yes. Can we stop global warming? Yes.


The New Frontier of which I speak is not a set of promises — it is a set of challenges. It sums up not what I intend to offer the American people, but what I intend to ask of them.

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154. txjac
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I don't see how we can reverse it. Too much of relying on fossil fuels and this will not change for sometime to come and if we EVER got away from it then the damage would have been done already.




Too easy to blame just fossil fuels. How many of us here on the blog carpool to work or getting the kids to school or extra activities ...how many are driving 8 cyclinder vehicles? How many driving hybrids? How many are recycling? How many are making numerous trips to the stores ...take a bike or walk a time or two?

One thing that has always bothered me is that I must pass an emissions test yearly. If I can pass I'm not on the road. Why are large trucks and semi's exempt from that ...they are the ones belching the black smoke in the air.

Things are being looked in to and starting to be used. Solar, wind ...fricton from cars on roads being turned in to power cities (I believe that this is being tested in Isreal) some others are working on an algae substance as a replacement for fossil fuels.

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Quoting wxmod:


Foundation laid? Show me anything that indicates there is a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions anywhere in the world or that there will be soon.

You're not looking at the big picture. As I've said, this won't happen overnight. We're experimenting with alternate forms of energy, energy efficient cars, etc. And once again, you still can't prove it irreversible.
And I still feel like it's me against the blog :P
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yes but it's proven smoking, obesity, etc. kills people. We can't prove global warming irreversible.

Btw, I'm not denying global warming. I actually believe strongly in it. I'm just saying we can't say for sure it is irreversible.
Perhaps you can't see a tipping point being reached, and that's completely okay. But a bunch of people who devote every waking and working second to studying this stuff can see such a point. And while I'm certainly no expert, everything I've seen and read and heard tells me that it's not only entirely possible, but at this time depressingly inevitable. :-\
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I don't see how we can reverse it. Too much of relying on fossil fuels and this will not change for sometime to come and if we EVER got away from it then the damage would have been done already.



It's already changing. Baby steps. When President Kennedy said we would put a man on the Moon in 10 years, a rocket didn't just fall out of the sky. We built it. We researched what we needed to do and found a way to do it. Was it easy? No. Will stopping global warming be easy? No. Did we put a man on the Moon? Yes. Can we stop global warming? Yes.
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150. wxmod
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Incorrect. In fact, most societies are moving in the right direction. While we haven't yet gone far enough to stop the problem, we have laid a foundation to build on.


Foundation laid? Show me anything that indicates there is a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions anywhere in the world or that there will be soon.
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Ya know that the goof-balls haven't a clue about geo-engineering anything when their "solution" to GlobalWarming-induced problems such as soil decarbonization, deforestation, and ocean acidification is "Here, let's add some AcidRain to fix things."
Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yes but it's proven smoking, obesity, etc. kills people. We can't prove global warming irreversible.

Btw, I'm not denying global warming. I actually believe strongly in it. I'm just saying we can't say for sure it is irreversible.


I don't see how we can reverse it. Too much of relying on fossil fuels and this will not change for sometime to come and if we EVER got away from it then the damage would have been done already.


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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am open to suggestions as to why it would not become irreversible. Do you have anything that suggests that it will not become irreversible?

You light a match.
The match catches the paper on fire.
The paper falls on the dry gas.
The dry grass begins to burn.
The burning grass catches the bush on fire.
The burning bush catches the trees on fire.
The forest begins to burn.
Hot embers from the forest fire jumps to an adjacent forest.
the chain continues beyond this until the fire can no longer support itself.

When this chain of events start, it is easy to break the chain close to its beginning. The further down the chain that the event is allowed to continue, the more difficult it becomes to break the chain. When you allow the chain of events to continue unrestrained then the chain of events will eventually continue beyond your control. ... Putting out the match after the forest has caught on fire has no effect on the forest that is now burning and continuing the chain reaction beyond the match. ... This is why that was not an irresponsible thing to say.

I feel like it's me against the blog :P
How does it not become irreversible: We become more energy efficient, use more solar/wind power, less fossil fuels. We use energy efficient lighting. We make better electric cars. Etc, etc, etc. It's not going to happen overnight. But it can happen. And it can stop global warming.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
No more irresponsible than a doctor telling a patient, "You're going to die within a year if you don't stop smoking, start dieting, and start exercising." It would be very unwise for that patient to respond, "Oh, yeah? I've been morbidly obese and sedentary for decades, and I've been smoking three packs of Marlboros a day since high school, yet I'm still here. So prove that I'm gonna die!" Unfortunately in such a case, there's truly only one way to "prove" that the doctor is correct, and that is for the patient to make no changes and go ahead and expire. If that happens? Well, there's little satisfaction for the physician in being right--and even less for the patient.

Yes but it's proven smoking, obesity, etc. kills people. We can't prove global warming irreversible.

Btw, I'm not denying global warming. I actually believe strongly in it. I'm just saying we can't say for sure it is irreversible.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I don't think it's possible to say that global warming is nearly irreversible because we've never had this problem before. Obviously we need to change things and try to stop the problem but saying it is irreversible without any way to prove that is irresponsible.


I am open to suggestions as to why it would not become irreversible. Do you have anything that suggests that it will not become irreversible?

You light a match.
The match catches the paper on fire.
The paper falls on the dry gas.
The dry grass begins to burn.
The burning grass catches the bush on fire.
The burning bush catches the trees on fire.
The forest begins to burn.
Hot embers from the forest fire jumps to an adjacent forest.
the chain continues beyond this until the fire can no longer support itself.

When this chain of events start, it is easy to break the chain close to its beginning. The further down the chain that the event is allowed to continue, the more difficult it becomes to break the chain. When you allow the chain of events to continue unrestrained then the chain of events will eventually continue beyond your control. ... Putting out the match after the forest has caught on fire has no effect on the forest that is now burning and continuing the chain reaction beyond the match. ... This is why that was not an irresponsible thing to say.
Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
Quoting wxmod:


Carbon dioxide pollution was discovered to be a problem in the 60s, I believe. Well, here we are 50 years later and nothing has been done to solve the problem. So, give me a break. It's irreversible already. No society is moving in a positive direction.

Incorrect. In fact, most societies are moving in the right direction. While we haven't yet gone far enough to stop the problem, we have laid a foundation to build on.
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143. wxmod
Cloud reflectivity modification

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_reflectivity_m odification
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I don't think it's possible to say that global warming is nearly irreversible because we've never had this problem before. Obviously we need to change things and try to stop the problem but saying it is irreversible without any way to prove that is irresponsible.
No more irresponsible than a doctor telling a patient, "You're going to die within a year if you don't stop smoking, start dieting, and start exercising." It would be very unwise for that patient to respond, "Oh, yeah? I've been morbidly obese and sedentary for decades, and I've been smoking three packs of Marlboros a day since high school, yet I'm still here. So prove that I'm gonna die!" Unfortunately in such a case, there's truly only one way to "prove" that the doctor is correct, and that is for the patient to make no changes and go ahead and expire. If that happens? Well, there's little satisfaction for the physician in being right--and even less for the patient.
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Quoting hydrus:

66. BrickellBreeze 5:05 PM GMT on March 26, 2012 +0
Three Questions:

1) What has allowed for Florida and portions of the Gulf coast to go unscaved during the past six hurricane seasons?- The steering currents were configured in a way that storms would head either due west or recurve back into the Atlantic. Florida was fortunate to be in between the primary storm tracks.

2) Will the pattern in 2004 and 2005, make a return this year?- To early to tell.

3) What is the projected positon of the Azores high this hurricane season?- to early to tell.....jmo..:)


Thanks,

Hurricane City says South Florida gets hit or brushed every 1.97 years.

Its been 6/7 years.

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Oh Dr. Masters, you are going to be in trouble with da Yoopers; not ALL of MI is under a hard freeze advisory!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yup... When's the last time we saw a long period of negative NAO?


Last year I believe.

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Quoting ncstorm:


What about the severe weather outbreak?


Looks good if the GFS pans out however the 12Z Euro does not show this now.

Link
Link
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Easy to see why.


Yup... When's the last time we saw a long period of negative NAO?
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The Challenges of Climate Change and Natural Disasters in Central America


Event Summary

In recent years, Central America has suffered several large-scale natural disasters that have left behind a legacy of death and destruction. The disruption of economic activity and costly reconstruction efforts create a heavy burden of social exclusion and debt. Given the region’s propensity for natural disasters—which are likely to increase due to changing climate patterns— there is a need for better regional cooperation in risk management.




Event Information


When

Thursday, March 29, 2012
9:00 AM to 11:00 AM



Where

Falk Auditorium
The Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW
Washington, DC
Map


Event Materials


Reuters/Luis Galdamez


Contact: Brookings Office of Communications


Email: events@brookings.edu


Phone: 202.797.6105





RELATED CONTENT


Shrinking the Carbon Footprint of Metropolitan America

Andrea Sarzynski, Marilyn A. Brown and Frank Southworth
The Brookings Institution
May 29, 2008



The Year that Shook the Rich: A Review of Natural Disasters in 2011

Elizabeth Ferris and Daniel Petz
The Brookings Institution
March 2012


Climate Change and the G8 Hokkaido Toyako Summit


On March 29, the Latin America Initiative at Brookings and the Central American Bank for Economic Integration will host a discussion on the challenges and implications of climate change for the Central American isthmus and the role that the public and private sectors can play in mitigating and adapting to risks. A panel of experts will examine these issues, followed by a keynote address by José María Figueres, former president of Costa Rica. Brookings Senior Fellow Katherine Sierra will moderate the discussion.

After the program, panelists will take audience questions
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
It should be noted however that the 12Z Euro shows no cold blast for the east next week.



What about the severe weather outbreak?
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Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Three Questions:

1) What has allowed for Florida and portions of the Gulf coast to go unscaved during the past six hurricane seasons?

2) Will the pattern in 2004 and 2005, make a return this year?

3) What is the projected positon of the Azores high this hurricane season?


Landfalls are more a function of pure luck: on where the long wave position just happens to be when the one or few US approaching storms just happen to come along.
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It should be noted however that the 12Z Euro shows no cold blast for the east next week.

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131. wxmod
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I don't think it's possible to say that global warming is nearly irreversible because we've never had this problem before. Obviously we need to change things and try to stop the problem but saying it is irreversible without any way to prove that is irresponsible.


Carbon dioxide pollution was discovered to be a problem in the 60s, I believe. Well, here we are 50 years later and nothing has been done to solve the problem. So, give me a break. It's irreversible already. No society is moving in a positive direction.
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If you look at post 127 you see that we really haven't had a negative NAO all winter and now spring. So if we do go into a negative NAO with the return of MJO then things could get really interesting across the east & midwest.

Link
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Quoting hydrus:
I am referring to the" paths" of tropical cyclones have taken the past 5 years Nigel. He wanted to know why Florida has not had a major strike since 05. I am saying regardless of the number of storms, a significant percentage of them have either recurved or moved west into Central America or Mexico. With Florida being in between,

Yeah, I know...I was just pointing that out
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7870
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Clearwater Beach Cam



Nice view of the beach
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7870
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon... 12z GFS certainly heavy on the cold for the next 2 weeks. As Dr. Jeff said this definitely poses problems for the vegetation and fruit.


Easy to see why.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
From Scientific American this afternoon, this bit of happy news:

Global Warming Close to Becoming Irreversible

"The world is close to reaching tipping points that will make it irreversibly hotter, making this decade critical in efforts to contain global warming, scientists warned on Monday.

Scientific estimates differ but the world's temperature looks set to rise by six degrees Celsius by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are allowed to rise uncontrollably.

As emissions grow, scientists say the world is close to reaching thresholds beyond which the effects on the global climate will be irreversible, such as the melting of polar ice sheets and loss of rainforests.

"This is the critical decade. If we don't get the curves turned around this decade we will cross those lines," said Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University's climate change institute, speaking at a conference in London.

Despite this sense of urgency, a new global climate treaty forcing the world's biggest polluters, such as the United States and China, to curb emissions will only be agreed on by 2015 - to enter into force in 2020.

"We are on the cusp of some big changes," said Steffen. "We can ... cap temperature rise at two degrees, or cross the threshold beyond which the system shifts to a much hotter state."

TIPPING POINTS

For ice sheets - huge refrigerators that slow down the warming of the planet - the tipping point has probably already been passed, Steffen said. The West Antarctic ice sheet has shrunk over the last decade and the Greenland ice sheet has lost around 200 cubic km (48 cubic miles) a year since the 1990s.

Most climate estimates agree the Amazon rainforest will get drier as the planet warms. Mass tree deaths caused by drought have raised fears it is on the verge of a tipping point, when it will stop absorbing emissions and add to them instead.

Around 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon were lost in 2005 from the rainforest and 2.2 billion tonnes in 2010, which has undone about 10 years of carbon sink activity, Steffen said.

One of the most worrying and unknown thresholds is the Siberian permafrost, which stores frozen carbon in the soil away from the atmosphere.

"There is about 1,600 billion tonnes of carbon there - about twice the amount in the atmosphere today - and the northern high latitudes are experiencing the most severe temperature change of any part of the planet," he said.

In a worst case scenario, 30 to 63 billion tonnes of carbon a year could be released by 2040, rising to 232 to 380 billion tonnes by 2100. This compares to around 10 billion tonnes of CO2 released by fossil fuel use each year.

Increased CO2 in the atmosphere has also turned oceans more acidic as they absorb it. In the past 200 years, ocean acidification has happened at a speed not seen for around 60 million years, said Carol Turley at Plymouth Marine Laboratory.

This threatens coral reef development and could lead to the extinction of some species within decades, as well as to an increase in the number of predators.

As leading scientists, policy-makers and environment groups gathered at the "Planet Under Pressure" conference in London, opinions differed on what action to take this decade.

London School of Economics professor Anthony Giddens favors focusing on the fossil fuel industry, seeing as renewables only make up 1 percent of the global energy mix.

"We have enormous inertia within the world economy and should make much more effort to close down coal-fired power stations," he said.

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell favours working on technologies leading to negative emissions in the long run, like carbon capture on biomass and in land use, said Jeremy Bentham, the firm's vice president of global business environment.

The conference runs through Thursday."

I don't think it's possible to say that global warming is nearly irreversible because we've never had this problem before. Obviously we need to change things and try to stop the problem but saying it is irreversible without any way to prove that is irresponsible.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
From Scientific American this afternoon, this bit of happy news:

Global Warming Close to Becoming Irreversible

"The world is close to reaching tipping points that will make it irreversibly hotter, making this decade critical in efforts to contain global warming, scientists warned on Monday.

Scientific estimates differ but the world's temperature looks set to rise by six degrees Celsius by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are allowed to rise uncontrollably.

As emissions grow, scientists say the world is close to reaching thresholds beyond which the effects on the global climate will be irreversible, such as the melting of polar ice sheets and loss of rainforests.

"This is the critical decade. If we don't get the curves turned around this decade we will cross those lines," said Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University's climate change institute, speaking at a conference in London.

Despite this sense of urgency, a new global climate treaty forcing the world's biggest polluters, such as the United States and China, to curb emissions will only be agreed on by 2015 - to enter into force in 2020.

"We are on the cusp of some big changes," said Steffen. "We can ... cap temperature rise at two degrees, or cross the threshold beyond which the system shifts to a much hotter state."

TIPPING POINTS

For ice sheets - huge refrigerators that slow down the warming of the planet - the tipping point has probably already been passed, Steffen said. The West Antarctic ice sheet has shrunk over the last decade and the Greenland ice sheet has lost around 200 cubic km (48 cubic miles) a year since the 1990s.

Most climate estimates agree the Amazon rainforest will get drier as the planet warms. Mass tree deaths caused by drought have raised fears it is on the verge of a tipping point, when it will stop absorbing emissions and add to them instead.

Around 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon were lost in 2005 from the rainforest and 2.2 billion tonnes in 2010, which has undone about 10 years of carbon sink activity, Steffen said.

One of the most worrying and unknown thresholds is the Siberian permafrost, which stores frozen carbon in the soil away from the atmosphere.

"There is about 1,600 billion tonnes of carbon there - about twice the amount in the atmosphere today - and the northern high latitudes are experiencing the most severe temperature change of any part of the planet," he said.

In a worst case scenario, 30 to 63 billion tonnes of carbon a year could be released by 2040, rising to 232 to 380 billion tonnes by 2100. This compares to around 10 billion tonnes of CO2 released by fossil fuel use each year.

Increased CO2 in the atmosphere has also turned oceans more acidic as they absorb it. In the past 200 years, ocean acidification has happened at a speed not seen for around 60 million years, said Carol Turley at Plymouth Marine Laboratory.

This threatens coral reef development and could lead to the extinction of some species within decades, as well as to an increase in the number of predators.

As leading scientists, policy-makers and environment groups gathered at the "Planet Under Pressure" conference in London, opinions differed on what action to take this decade.

London School of Economics professor Anthony Giddens favors focusing on the fossil fuel industry, seeing as renewables only make up 1 percent of the global energy mix.

"We have enormous inertia within the world economy and should make much more effort to close down coal-fired power stations," he said.

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell favours working on technologies leading to negative emissions in the long run, like carbon capture on biomass and in land use, said Jeremy Bentham, the firm's vice president of global business environment.

The conference runs through Thursday."


Oh we'll have to get far passed the irreversible stage to wake people up.
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124. wxmod
About geoengineering, from the Guardian"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/may/29/ greentech.geoengineering?INTCMP=SRCH
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Good afternoon... 12z GFS certainly heavy on the cold for the next 2 weeks. As Dr. Jeff said this definitely poses problems for the vegetation and fruit.
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Quoting nigel20:

The past two hurricane seasons have shown that there is no direct correlaton with number of storms and impacts
I am referring to the" paths" of tropical cyclones have taken the past 5 years Nigel. He wanted to know why Florida has not had a major strike since 05. I am saying regardless of the number of storms, a significant percentage of them have either recurved or moved west into Central America or Mexico. With Florida being in between,
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
pottery and Nigel,I dont know if the same is occuring where you are but there is plenty of gray in the sky here and I know the source of it,The Soufriere,which has been more active lately.As the winds have changed from the SE,those ash plumes are arriving at the northern Leewards,VI and PR.

Look at the plume on the pic.



Here is the Soufriere at real time.


No...the sky is pretty clear...Soufriere is lookin a bit more ominous though
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7870
Quoting wxmod:


Links are readily available. Here's the trick.

in your search, with your query words in quotes, type site:edu or site:gov

Check "solar radiation management"
"radiative forcing"
"stratospheric seeding"

At Patents Online search for:
"stratospheric welsbach effect"

OK. Thanks for that. Appreciated.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
pottery and Nigel,I dont know if the same is occuring where you are but there is plenty of gray skies here and I know the source of it,The Soufriere,which has been more active lately.As the winds have changed from the SE,those ash plumes are arriving at the northern Leewards,VI and PR.

Look at the plume on the pic.



Here is the Soufriere at real time.


koff koff koff !
Sorry to hear that.
Soufriere has been belching for about a week.
We have intermittent grey sky here too and a decent shower this morning, but it's coming from out of the Amazon basin. Not as strong as last week, but still coming....
Surface winds are pretty stiff from NE.
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From Scientific American this afternoon, this bit of happy news:

Global Warming Close to Becoming Irreversible

"The world is close to reaching tipping points that will make it irreversibly hotter, making this decade critical in efforts to contain global warming, scientists warned on Monday.

Scientific estimates differ but the world's temperature looks set to rise by six degrees Celsius by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are allowed to rise uncontrollably.

As emissions grow, scientists say the world is close to reaching thresholds beyond which the effects on the global climate will be irreversible, such as the melting of polar ice sheets and loss of rainforests.

"This is the critical decade. If we don't get the curves turned around this decade we will cross those lines," said Will Steffen, executive director of the Australian National University's climate change institute, speaking at a conference in London.

Despite this sense of urgency, a new global climate treaty forcing the world's biggest polluters, such as the United States and China, to curb emissions will only be agreed on by 2015 - to enter into force in 2020.

"We are on the cusp of some big changes," said Steffen. "We can ... cap temperature rise at two degrees, or cross the threshold beyond which the system shifts to a much hotter state."

TIPPING POINTS

For ice sheets - huge refrigerators that slow down the warming of the planet - the tipping point has probably already been passed, Steffen said. The West Antarctic ice sheet has shrunk over the last decade and the Greenland ice sheet has lost around 200 cubic km (48 cubic miles) a year since the 1990s.

Most climate estimates agree the Amazon rainforest will get drier as the planet warms. Mass tree deaths caused by drought have raised fears it is on the verge of a tipping point, when it will stop absorbing emissions and add to them instead.

Around 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon were lost in 2005 from the rainforest and 2.2 billion tonnes in 2010, which has undone about 10 years of carbon sink activity, Steffen said.

One of the most worrying and unknown thresholds is the Siberian permafrost, which stores frozen carbon in the soil away from the atmosphere.

"There is about 1,600 billion tonnes of carbon there - about twice the amount in the atmosphere today - and the northern high latitudes are experiencing the most severe temperature change of any part of the planet," he said.

In a worst case scenario, 30 to 63 billion tonnes of carbon a year could be released by 2040, rising to 232 to 380 billion tonnes by 2100. This compares to around 10 billion tonnes of CO2 released by fossil fuel use each year.

Increased CO2 in the atmosphere has also turned oceans more acidic as they absorb it. In the past 200 years, ocean acidification has happened at a speed not seen for around 60 million years, said Carol Turley at Plymouth Marine Laboratory.

This threatens coral reef development and could lead to the extinction of some species within decades, as well as to an increase in the number of predators.

As leading scientists, policy-makers and environment groups gathered at the "Planet Under Pressure" conference in London, opinions differed on what action to take this decade.

London School of Economics professor Anthony Giddens favors focusing on the fossil fuel industry, seeing as renewables only make up 1 percent of the global energy mix.

"We have enormous inertia within the world economy and should make much more effort to close down coal-fired power stations," he said.

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell favours working on technologies leading to negative emissions in the long run, like carbon capture on biomass and in land use, said Jeremy Bentham, the firm's vice president of global business environment.

The conference runs through Thursday."
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Clearwater Beach Cam


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116. wxmod
Quoting pottery:

You have any links on this?


Links are readily available. Here's the trick.

in your search, with your query words in quotes, type site:edu or site:gov

Check "solar radiation management"
"radiative forcing"
"stratospheric seeding"

At Patents Online search for:
"stratospheric welsbach effect"
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March 25, 2011

March 25, 2012
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7870
pottery and Nigel,I dont know if the same is occuring where you are but there is plenty of gray in the sky here and I know one of the causes apart from the sal of it,The Soufriere,which has been more active lately.As the winds have changed from the SE,those ash plumes are arriving at the northern Leewards,VI and PR.

Look at the plume on the pic.



Here is the Soufriere at real time.

Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14039
Quoting hydrus:
Try this link...Link

Thanks, I saw that.
I'll keep going until I can find something more definitive on the idea of "deliberate manipulation" though.
I know it's one of wxmod's pet subjects.......
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COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY OUT 20 NM OFFSHORE
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND...LONG ISLAND BAYS AND NEW YORK HARBOR

ANZ345-270515-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
157 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.THIS AFTERNOON...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. WAVES
AROUND 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT...DIMINISHING
TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE. WAVES SUBSIDING TO AROUND
2 FT.
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BECOMING
W AROUND 5 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
.WED...SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WAVES 1 FT OR LESS...THEN AROUND 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING N. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT.

$$
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Quoting wxmod:


This is the biggest of big government. This idea is probably going to be implemented. It is already being experimented with in many countries, and by private corporations. You will survive at their mercy and will have no idea where to hide.
There are things happening around all of us everyday that we have no idea about. Whether its government related or something else.
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Quoting hydrus:
My bad..Yes they are..

The past two hurricane seasons have shown that there is no direct correlaton with number of storms and impacts
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 7870
Quoting wxmod:


This is the biggest of big government. This idea is probably going to be implemented. It is already being experimented with in many countries, and by private corporations. You will survive at their mercy and will have no idea where to hide.

You have any links on this?
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Quoting pottery:

Working on it....
But more specifically on the statement "deliberate manipulation etc etc".
Have not found much on that.
Try this link...Link
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107. wxmod
Quoting hydrus:
Global dimming
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Deliberate manipulation of this dimming effect is now being considered as a geoengineering technique to reduce the impact of global warming.


This is the biggest of big government. This idea is probably going to be implemented. It is already being experimented with in many countries, and by private corporations. You will survive at their mercy and will have no idea where to hide.
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Quoting nigel20:

Are those images from 2010 and 2011 hurricane season?
My bad..Yes they are..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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