Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting hydrus:
I remember both Stan and Diane very well..Boy time goes fast.:)

Correct, Hydrus. How can we be that old when they keep telling us time is passing us by? We should be getting younger, if that is true. ;-) ... That's my story, and I'm stickin' to it! ... Grab it while you can, Grothar. I'm not sure how long they are going to let us ride that one. When the ride stops, it's , "Everybody OFF!".

Quoting hydrus:
Greetings.

Sorry, I went away for a little while. Greetings to you too

Quoting PedleyCA:
SH912012 - INVEST

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier =SH9 12012&starting_image=2012SH91_1KMSRVIS_2012032 5183 2.GIF

Here is the other invest....

Ok, Pedley. Time for a lesson.

1. Copy the address you want to post.
2. Go to your blog entry and hit the link button.
(You may have to hit the "allow pop-up or add-on bar)
3. A dialogue box will appear.
4. click the cursor in the box and right click to paste. Then hit the OK button.

You can do the same with Images with the exception of most animated images. That shall be lesson 2.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtim e/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=SH912 012&starting_image=2012SH91_1KMSRVIS_201203251832. GIF

3 more model runs and we will be 120 hrs out
lets see if it remains

Quoting Neapolitan:
My parting shot: one of my favorite eye images, 1984's Hurricane Diana as seen from a NOAA plane. (Shot by Stan Goldenberg.)

That's a nice view from the eye

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


3 more model runs and we will be 120 hrs out
lets see if it remains

You need a lesson, too Keeper?

Quoting nigel20:

That's a nice view from the eye

Very, very surreal. What it would be like to fly in one of those...I'd give anything. Very cool pic not to say the least.

Quoting Grothar:


You need a lesson, too Keeper?

you can't see the image

Quoting Cyclone2012:


Asi sera, pero eso esta incorrecto sin embargo, amigo. Es teclado, no keyboard! Usando keyboard en Espanol es un ejemplo del Spanglish y por eso es indebido, =).

Claro que si! Pero tengo que hablar Spanglish.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

So do you believe we can reverse climate change?

I'm a scientist by training and disposition. I try not to "believe" in anything too much but to try to figure out the probabilities, the odds, of outcomes.

There's no way for us to know the future with any certainty. All we can do is to take the facts we have and use them to generate a "best guess".

Can we reverse climate change? I'll answer another question first...

Can we slow climate change? Yes, we have the technology right now that would allow us to cut our fossil fuel use enough to slow climate change significantly.

I think that's 99% likely to be correct.

Can we stop the planet from warming? No, even if we stopped burning fossil fuels today we've already put enough greenhouse gas into the pipes that the planet will continue to warm for some decades.

Again, I'm going to give that a 99% probability.

Have we gone so far that we've triggered events (e.g., permafrost melt) that will take over and significantly warm the planet even if we stop burning fossil fuels?

I don't have enough facts to make a knowledgeable guess. I'm going to have to give that one a 50% probability, a 50:50 chance that we're screwed.

If we haven't passed the point of no return can we reverse climate warming (your question)?

My understanding is that if we stop burning fossil fuels in time and we haven't let things go too far then over a few decades the CO2 and other greenhouse gases will work their way back out of the atmosphere and the climate will return to about where it was before. But it might take a long, long time to regrow polar ice and stuff like that.

If we've passed the point of no return or allow ourselves to pass the point of no return will humans go extinct?

I'm guessing, based on our technological skills and the fact that those kinds of temperatures are likely decades away, that we could protect some "breeding stock". Whether that's a few dozen, hundreds, thousands, or even millions, I have no guess.

I'd give us about a 90% probability of keeping humans from going completely extinct. (Think biosphere or space lab sort of existence, worst case.)

Now, what do I think we should do?

Obviously act as if we can prevent a runaway climate.

To act otherwise would be butt-foolish. If you're out in the ocean and your boat starts to leak then you bail. It might not save you, but it will keep you from drowning sooner and gives you a fighting chance.

Our first job, I think, is to quit making it worse. Do that and we give the people youngest of us a chance to come up with a way to save the world's bacon.

There might be some technology out there that would pull the CO2 and other greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere and we should give the folks who follow us as much time as possible to invent it.

But we should not sit on our rear ends and assume that some smart folks will come up with a solution.

It's time to grab our biggest buckets and bail like a scared man....

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you can't see the image

No, all I can see is a red X.

night all

Link

Here is the working link, fingers crossed. Third times the charm.

Here is a panoramic view of invest 96W.

Quoting ILwthrfan:


Very, very surreal. What it would be like to fly in one of those...I'd give anything. Very cool pic not to say the least.

Yeah, I too would like to experience what it's like to be in the center of the most powerful storms on the planet

Quoting Grothar:


Ok, Pedley. Time for a lesson.

1. Copy the address you want to post.
2. Go to your blog entry and hit the link button.
(You may have to hit the "allow pop-up or add-on bar)
3. A dialogue box will appear.
4. click the cursor in the box and right click to paste. Then hit the OK button.

You can do the same with Images with the exception of most animated images. That shall be lesson 2.

Thank You Sensei Grothar.

Quoting Grothar:


Claro que si! Pero tengo que hablar Spanglish.

Hawk, sollten wir nur Englisch schreiben in diesem Blog. Was ist los mit dir?

<.

can ya see it now

Quoting BobWallace:


Jed - people have pointed you toward the facts over and over and over and over.

You seemingly refuse to consider the facts.

You have shown absolutely no efforts to seek the facts as far as I can tell.

You have, in essence, stated that you know more than the scientists who have spent their lives studying the issues and you have accused people with Ph.D.s of being liars.

Now you're spinning off into some tin foil hat fantasy that climate change is a plot for some sinister force to take over control of the planet.

You want to know what you can do? Since you asked - you can spend some serious time reading through the arguments and reading the science behind the answers on this site....

http://www.skepticalscience.com/

Start over on the left side of the page where it says "Most Used Climate Myths". If you click on "View All Arguments" you will get a list of all 173 topics. Click on each and you will get (generally) an introductory page and can choose a more advanced page and then a "here's the science" page.

If you don't want to be viewed as a climate change denier then quit acting like one.

(A climate change denier is someone who says "Climate ain't changing and if it is man didn't cause it and I ain't got no stinkin' data to back up my position". "Furthermore I refuse to look at your data.")

If, in your reading, you find some scientific evidence that you believe shows us that the climate is not warming or that the warming observed is due to factors other than greenhouse gases and soot bring that evidence forward and we'll take a look at it along with you.

Fair enough?

I haven't stated that I don't believe the Climate is warming. Furthermore, I have not stated the humans are not causing Climate Change. Why then do you and some others here treat me as if I do? Additionally, I never accused anyone with a PHD of being a liar, I was making a point that just because someone has a PHD doesn't mean we accept everything they say, I'm urging people to, you know, think for themselves. I don't have any proof any scientist right now is a liar and I don't plan on calling any scientist a liar unless I know for sure because otherwise it would be slander.


I stated once before I have not sought to gain proof of some other theory about GW. I don't because I do believe Climate Change is real and Humans adding CO2 into the atmosphere is causing changes and we should move towards ending it.


There is more than one kind of skepticism, so please don't put me into a box. I am skeptical of the science being stretched. For example, earlier in the blog I objected to where science is stretched to what appears to be inciting fear and agenda as I examined earlier in an article. The article clearly made a stretch of truth to put it nicely, by claiming in the near future Climate Change could be irreversible which is just not true. I have no way of knowing this article is written in direct attempt to scare people, I hope that isn't the case, but if its not, its still stretching the real science involved which is just that even if we change things now there will be delayed effects of Climate Change that will continue many years after.

Good morning all.

Quoting SPLbeater:
night all

Good night SPL

how about this one can yasee it

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


can ya see it now

Sure can Keeper, thank you.

SPC is hinting at it too.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT INTO DAY 6 /SAT
3-31/...DEPICTING A WEAK FEATURE ALOFT DRIFTING INTO/ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE/MEAN RIDGE. WHILE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND THE ASSOCIATED/WEAK
SURFACE SYSTEM...THREAT AS IT APPEARS ATTM DOES NOT WARRANT 30%
AREAL HIGHLIGHT.

MEANWHILE...EWD PROGRESS OF A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE WRN U.S.
DAY 6 IS BEING HANDLED MUCH DIFFERENTLY BY THE ECMWF AND
GFS...RENDERING ANY MEANINGFUL DESCRIPTION OF CONVECTIVE/SEVERE
POTENTIAL BEYOND DAY 6 IMPRUDENT ATTM.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


how about this one can yasee it

That's a lot of vort...

The weather pattern in Puerto Rico on Febuary and March has been a rather wet one and those months are supposed to be the most drier months of the year. Here are the latest rainfall stats that shows how above normal we are in that department. In my Caribbean blog,I have more local details about this.

Link

the last one

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is a panoramic view of invest 96W.

Thanks much Tropicsweatherpr

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Good morning all.

It's still night in the Caribbean, where are you located?

Quoting afj3:

At least is not bone dry right now as it was a few weeks ago in all of West Africa as moisture tries to increase a little bit. Maybe the big drought that has affected that part of the world for the past few months is losing some of it's punch. We will see if that is correct as the days and weeks go by.

Anyone got a link for the ECMWF? Kinda curious what differences SPC is talking about, cause it seems like the GFS has this next system on steroids!

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The weather pattern in Puerto Rico on Febuary and March has been a rather wet one and those months are supposed to be the most drier months of the year. Here are the latest rainfall stats that shows how above normal we are in that department. In my Caribbean blog,I have more local details about this.

Link

I clicked on your link and it returned this:

Sorry, you must supply a valid product and station ID

Quoting PedleyCA:



I clicked on your link and it returned this:

Sorry, you must supply a valid product and station ID

I did something wrong with the link,but here it is now.

Link

Quoting SteveDa1:


You seem to be quite certain. Why? By your reasoning, we will just keep polluting, never even use technology (which is what allows you to be on WU), and just go the way of the dinosaurs.

For concerted human action there needs to be a certain level of shared pain. However the action is always to relieve the pain not to reverse the cause, in this case part of the cause is our over-reliance on technology.

Quoting Cyclone2012:


Would that give bad weather to Arkansas, Keeper? I ask cause I've got family up there.

at 180 hrs it appears to be turning into a cutoff a real big cutoff
lets just wait and see

Quoting PedleyCA:



I clicked on your link and it returned this:

Sorry, you must supply a valid product and station ID

Same here

Quoting nigel20:

Same here

Your 2nd Link works just fine....... well done...

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


at 180 hrs it appears to be turning into a cutoff a real big cutoff
lets just wait and see

That's one hell of a jet streak.

Quoting PedleyCA:



Your 2nd Link works just fine....... well done...

I didn't post it Tropicsweatherpr did

Good night all

Quoting KoritheMan:


That's one hell of a jet streak.

It sure is.

BTW, with so many consecutive hurricane seasons with so little activity impacting Florida. I'm pondering what this season might bring, more of the same? Or much more active?

I do know La Nina is forecast to die down, and I would think that would mean the dominant tropical cyclone track patterns should be different this year.

Quoting nigel20:

I didn't post it Tropicsweatherpr did

Hey Nigel,
I quoted off your post and it didn't take the part I thought it would.

I think all of us need to test our links before we encase them. I see lots
of them not working and it is annoying as hell. Well, that's my two cent's.

Quoting nigel20:
Good night all

Night nigel.

Quoting Jedkins01:


The Admins have actually gotten more liberal and less ban happy from what Ive seen. I remember in the past posting a video of any kind or a funny picture would be be removed within hours of posting lol.


There is a bit more freedom here now which is good.

That will happen again come an active storm.

Tropicsweatherpr: Hola a los dos. Yo tambien hablo espanol.
Cyclone2012: Que sorpresa! Y de donde escribes?
Grothar: su keyboard. que crees?
Cyclone2012: El termino correcto es el teclado, no el keyboard, Groth!

sigh... grammarians... focusing on the trivial when the real questions are:
Why is Tropicsweatherpr using your keyboard, Cyclone2012?
Why didn't you know that he was writing from there?
And how did Grothar find out about it before you did?

Quoting Jedkins01:


It sure is.

BTW, with so many consecutive hurricane seasons with so little activity impacting Florida. I'm pondering what this season might bring, more of the same? Or much more active?

I do know La Nina is forecast to die down, and I would think that would mean the dominant tropical cyclone track patterns should be different this year.

I haven't really done research on which ENSO phase favors more activity in Florida. However, I would imagine that neutral years do.