February 2012 the globe's 22nd warmest; record Hawaii hailstone confirmed

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:09 GMT le 28 Mars 2012

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February 2012 was the globe's 22nd warmest February on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperatures were the 15th warmest on record according to NASA. It was the coolest February since 1994, and the coolest month, relative to average, since January 2008. The relatively cool temperatures were due, in part, to the on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, which has brought a large amount of cool water to the surface. February 2012 global land temperatures were the 37th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 7th or 13th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). February temperatures in the stratosphere were the coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Snow cover during February varied dramatically depending on which hemisphere you were in. Eurasia had its third largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record, while North America had its fourth lowest. As seen in Figure 1, much of North America and Siberia were much warmer than average, while Europe was considerably colder than average. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of February in his February 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for February 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña weakens, almost gone
A borderline weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.5°C below average during February and the the first half of March. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 32% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.

February Arctic sea ice extent fifth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fifth lowest extent on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Continuing the pattern established in January, conditions differed greatly between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic. On the Atlantic side, especially in the Barents Sea, air temperatures were higher than average and ice extent was unusually low. February ice extent for the Barents Sea was the lowest in the satellite record, due to air temperatures that ranged from 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average at the 925 mb level (about 3000 feet above sea level). In contrast, on the Pacific side, February ice extent in the Bering Sea was the second highest in the satellite record, paired with air temperatures that were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) below average at the 925 mb level. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.


Figure 2. Record-setting hailstone from the Hawaii 'supercell' thunderstorm that hit the Hawaiian island of Oahu on March 9, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/National Weather Service.

Huge hailstone sets Hawaii record
A hailstone with the diameter of roughly that of a grapefruit that hit Oahu on March 9, 2012, has been confirmed as the largest hailstone on record for the state of Hawaii, according to NOAA. The record-setting hailstone was dropped by a “supercell” thunderstorm on the windward side of Oahu. There were numerous reports of hail with diameters of 2 to 3 inches and greater. Hail the size of a penny (diameter of 3/4 inch) or quarter (diameter of one inch) has been reported in Hawaii only eight times since records began, and there is no record of hail larger than 1 inch in diameter. Hail the size of golf balls and baseballs can only form within intense thunderstorms called supercells. These supercells need warm, moist air to rise into progressively colder, drier air, as well as winds changing direction and increasing speed with increasing height off the ground. For both sets of conditions to exist at the same time in Hawaii is extremely rare, but that did occur on March 9. Conditions that day were ideal for a supercell to form, and the storm looked very much like supercell thunderstorms common in the Central U.S. during spring. Supercells can also produce tornadoes, another rarity in Hawaii. The same hail-producing supercell produced a confirmed EF-0 tornado with winds of 60-70 mph in Lanikai and Enchanted Lakes on Oahu.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SPLbeater:


You make it sound like most of my input is worthless.

Anyways, I aint changing anything. I got banned for 24 hours the first time for nothing, so there is nothing to improve.


No, that is not what I am saying. What I am saying is that MOST of the time your input is good, but that the times when you go on religious rants it can detract from your value as a poster on this blog. I don't know exactly what you did to get banned, or what caused it, but all I can recommend is following the rules closer and not instigating the admins.
Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
There is only one admin on this blog and he posted a while ago.

Severe weather threat next week should be very interesting! April might just be historic with the tornados we see in the SE
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Quoting SPLbeater:




Anyways, I aint changing anything. I got banned for 24 hours the first time for nothing, so there is nothing to improve.
I'm sorry to see you say this, as it looks like you will not be welcomed on this blog much longer. I'm going to repeat what many others have said. Keep the chat about the weather!

Have you chacked when the nwsRaleigh open house is? You should plan to go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
sigh As I told ya before, ya probably got banned the first time for inserting a 4-letter word into a purely political statement. With 90plus% of the reason being the 4-letter word part.
Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
412. txjac
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Incredible what is going on here. Look at the photos of those houses with the mud.

Link


Wow, thats a lot of muddy mess
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
Incredible what is going on here. Look at the photos of those houses with the mud.

Link
Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
GOM IR Flash Loop
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GOM IR still image

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Quoting hydrus:
The GFS has eased up a little this run. Temporarily I believe..


what makes u think it is temporary?


NAM trending weaker and slower
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A town in interior PR is on the verge of being incommunicated as the main road in and out collapses.

Link


Durante las próximas horas solo habrá un carril disponible para transitar debido a trabajos de remoción de terrenos en la zona, informó Ángel Pérez, director de zona de la Agencia Estatal para el Manejo de Emergencias y Administración de Desastres (AEMEAD). Se informó además que la AEMEAD activó las brigadas del Puerto Rico Search and Rescue Team (PRUSAR) para apoyar en el proceso.


That translation(microsoft) is a bit strange. I found the url of the article and pasted that portion into Google translate and got a word that made sense. Google came back with the word "clearance," but Microsoft used the term "demining," which sounds way more sinister. Good to have that a backup when the translation doesn't make sense.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A town in interior PR is on the verge of being incommunicated as the main road in and out collapses.

Link
Puerto Rico could see even more heavy rain. ..AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
632 AM AST THU MAR 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS
ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT STALLING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
3PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE NORTHERN USVI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATIONS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY HAS CAUSED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...THE RAINFALL FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
CAUSED WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO WHICH
INCLUDED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS WELL AS RIVER
FLOODING.

THE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR FOR TODAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PUERTO
RICO...AREAS MVFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 29/22Z. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED BEYOND 30/02Z. LLVL WINDS ARE
EASTERLY 5 TO 15 KT BUT VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST BTWN 4 AND 10
KFT. AFT 29/16Z AREAS OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
PR WITH MORE PREVALENT MVFR AND PSBL BRIEF IFR CONDS FROM TJBQ TO
TJNR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE NOW INCREASING AND THE LOCAL BUOYS ARE
REPORTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 FEET ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN COASTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MANY RIVERS ARE OUT OF ITS BANKS INCLUDING RIO
CULEBRINAS...RIO GRANDE DE MANATI...RIO CAMUY...RIO GRANDE DE
ARECIBO...AND OTHER SMALLER RIVERS ALONG THE NORTHERN
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. PONDING OF WATER IN ROADWAYS AND
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS PRESENT. IN
ADDITION...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO..FURTHER AGGRAVATING FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THAT
AREA.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The GFS has eased up a little this run. Temporarily I believe..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New NAM should take the trough to around the Rockies/Plains, looks the same to a little stronger on this run as it slams in to CA.

Maybe the 12z gfs will show this, should start coming out in about and hour.

It is also a tad further south.


It seems to be weakening faster than in the previous run
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
CRAS water vapor forecast loop shows the beginning of a powerful system..Link
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401. WxGeekVA
14:27 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


IM BACK


Welcome back! Please toe the line more this time, because you actually have good input sometimes.
Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
400. DavidHOUTX
14:20 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


yeah.


did they explain to you why you were banned? I was wondering if they told you what you did so you wouldn't do it again.
Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 622
399. Tropicsweatherpr
14:20 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
A town in interior PR is on the verge of being incommunicated as the main road in and out collapses.

Link
Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
398. DavidHOUTX
14:19 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting bappit:
Wind map.

"This map shows you the delicate tracery of wind flowing over the US right now."

Edit: It currently shows winds converging around Kansas. .... apparently based on forecast data.


this is a cool map. Thanks for sharing
Member Since: 18 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 622
397. GeorgiaStormz
14:16 GMT le 29 Mars 2012


Nice hodograph this afternooon in NW Missouri
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
396. flsky
14:09 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Giant solar tornado photographed by NASA
Link
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395. SPLbeater
14:09 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:




Be Careful.......

Have u seen the Day 5 convective outlook?


yeah.
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
394. nigel20
14:05 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Later guys
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
393. GeorgiaStormz
14:01 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


try not talking about banning, administrators, how bad the rules are, and only mention the weather like me. :)


Quoting SPLbeater:


Yeah you heard right. that little wise guy admin you never see comment anywhere decided to take a hike and let me on.


Be Careful.......

Have u seen the Day 5 convective outlook?
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
391. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
13:54 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
21:00 PM JST March 29 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1004 hPa) located at 9.8N 111.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 10.0N 111.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.3N 110.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 11.0N 108.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 15:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
390. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
13:54 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17F
18:00 PM FST March 29 2012
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 17F (1000 hPa) located at 17.9S 175.9E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has improved slightly past 24 hours. Convection remains persistent. Tropical depression 17 lies under an upper diffluent region in a high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it south with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
389. nigel20
13:53 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Plenty of flooding going in many areas of PR today as the wet pattern of this March continues. Here is the latest news with photos.

Link

Thanks for the update Tropics
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
388. GeorgiaStormz
13:52 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


Heh, you crazy? From the way this place is run i might be banned again this evening from talking about weather!


try not talking about banning, administrators, how bad the rules are, and only mention the weather like me. :)
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
387. nigel20
13:49 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


IM BACK

Good morning SPl...heard you got a 48hr ban
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
384. GeorgiaStormz
13:45 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:


IM BACK



Dont get yourself banned again.
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
383. Tropicsweatherpr
13:44 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Plenty of flooding going in many areas of PR today as the wet pattern of this March continues. Here is the latest news with photos.

Link
Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14267
382. SPLbeater
13:42 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting JNCali:
.


IM BACK
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
381. JNCali
13:41 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting SPLbeater:
.
.
Member Since: 9 septembre 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
380. nigel20
13:35 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
You can see from the SST anomaly chart, that the SST's in the eastern atlantic is warming...though it could be temporary
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
379. SPLbeater
13:34 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
.
Member Since: 4 août 2011 Posts: 46 Comments: 4485
378. nigel20
13:31 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
March 29, 2012
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
377. nigel20
13:26 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Good morning all!
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
376. RitaEvac
13:26 GMT le 29 Mars 2012




Member Since: 14 juillet 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
375. JNCali
13:25 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Nice water vapor levels over SoTex.. how are the lake levels doing out there??
Member Since: 9 septembre 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
374. GeorgiaStormz
12:57 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
NWS Jackson, MS seems quite concerned, but ill wait for the 12z outlook in a few hours, to see if we trend back to the old run:

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE NOW WITH A 995MB SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM AR AND THE MID
SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY WHILE SWEEPING A SIGNIFICANT LOW-MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS THROUGH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS(MLCAPES UP TO 2.5K
J/KG) FEATURING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES(7-8C). PROGGED RAOBS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR 3000J/KG SBCAPES IF U60S DEWPOINTS WERE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING. GFS PWATS OF 1.7 INCHES ALSO
WRAP INTO THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER UNDER A 60KT 700MB JET STREAK FROM NRN LA INTO SERN TN.
THIS SHOULD YIELD A HIGHER TORNADO RISK FOR THE NRN HALF OF OUR
CWFA BUT THIS COULD OBVIOUSLY CHANGE AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
SPC JUMPING ON BOARD WITH GROWING SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
ADD MORE SEVERE DETAILS TO THE HWOJAN...ESPECIALLY BEING APRIL.
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
373. Xyrus2000
12:57 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting blsealevel:
UN climate panel ties some weather extremes to global warming.

The report specifically points to New Orleans during 2005's Hurricane Katrina, noting that "developed countries also suffer severe disasters because of social vulnerability and inadequate disaster protection."

cant say i agree with all of this but intresting non the less.

I have no buttons and only half a screen on this site again this is the link.

Link: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/28/10 904327-un-climate-panel-ties-some-weather-extremes -to-global-warming


The report does not say Katrina was caused by global warming. Rather, they use it as an example to show that as climate changes even developed nations can suffer consequences if not adequately prepared for them.
Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1480
372. LargoFl
12:56 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting JNCali:
Precip Outlook

thanks for the info, does not look good for florida to get any real rainfall any time soon with this high so near us
Member Since: 6 août 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38521
371. Xyrus2000
12:50 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
Anti-science legislation offers prospect of a new Scopes trial

lmost 90 years ago, Tennessee became a national laughingstock with the Scopes trial of 1925, when a young teacher was prosecuted for violating a state law forbidding the teaching of evolution. With the passage of two bills, House Bill 368 and Senate Bill 893, the Tennessee legislature is doing the unbelievable: attempting to roll the clock back to 1925 by attempting to insert religious beliefs in the teaching of science.

These bills, if enacted, would encourage teachers to present the “scientific strengths and scientific weaknesses” of “controversial” topics such as “biological evolution, the chemical origins of life, global warming, and human cloning.” As such, the bills are misleading, unnecessary, likely to provoke unnecessary and divisive legal proceedings, and likely to have adverse economic consequences for the state. More here..


After perusing the article, and the bills mentioned, it's pretty clear what heir purpose is meant to be. It's also clear that the people who wrote have very little understanding of science and how it operates.

It's always nice to see the Dark Ages trying to make a comeback. :P
Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1480
370. weathermanwannabe
12:48 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
Good Morning. All eyes on the potential for severe weather next week right in time for the April season. The system entering the Pacific NW looks very robust and I suppose it is going to boil down the the ultimate trajectory of the system. The Gulf is very warm already with a nice warm flow up into the mid-section of the US so a potent cold low will certainly bring the potential for some nasty weather; gonna also have to keep an eye on what the jet stream does going into next week as well. Someone is going to get the severe weather next week but how widespread of an event remains to be seen. Hopefully, we will start to see some model convergence early next week as the system and trajectory unfolds.
Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
369. GeorgiaStormz
12:41 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
The 6z GFS run just decimates the trough, if it holds, i wouldn't be surprised to see the threat greatly lowered.

With the 6z, we would have a weakening cutoff low.
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9730
368. AussieStorm
12:31 GMT le 29 Mars 2012
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE NUMBER TWO.





Click image for loop.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE NUMBER TWO ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 7:30 PM THIS EVENING THURSDAY 29TH MARCH 2012.

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE IS CURRENT FOR RENNELL & BELLONA, WESTERN, CHOISEUL, ISABEL, MALAITA, CENTRAL, MAKIRA, GUADALCANAL AND

TEMOTU PROVINCES.



AT 6.00 PM THIS EVENING , A TROPICAL LOW WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED

NEAR 10.9 DEGREES SOUTH AND 156.2 DEGREES EAST, APPROXIMATELY 220 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF RENNELL ISLAND.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 06 KNOTS AND INTENSIFY.

EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES OVER MOST OF THE ISLANDS.

EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KNOTS) TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY).

SEAS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELLS AND HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUDERSTORMS.

PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES AS BAD WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW POSES THREATS TO LIVES AND PROPERTIES

PLEASE LISTEN TO ALL RADIO OUTLETS FOR FURTHER ADVICES.

THE NEXT ADVICE WILL BE ISSUED AT 7:30 AM TOMORROW MORNING.

DATE: 29TH MARCH 2012.


IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Thursday the 29th of March 2012 and valid until end of
Sunday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
At 1:00pm AEST a broad low pressure system was located to the south of the
Solomon Islands near 10.2S 156.1E. The low is forecast to slowly intensify over
the coming three days and will begin to take a more southeasterly track during
Friday. This system is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Eastern Region on:
Friday: Low
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: Moderate

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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