February 2012 the globe's 22nd warmest; record Hawaii hailstone confirmed
February 2012 was the globe's 22nd warmest February on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperatures were the 15th warmest on record according to NASA. It was the coolest February since 1994, and the coolest month, relative to average, since January 2008. The relatively cool temperatures were due, in part, to the on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, which has brought a large amount of cool water to the surface. February 2012 global land temperatures were the 37th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were colder than average, the 7th or 13th coldest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). February temperatures in the stratosphere were the coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Snow cover during February varied dramatically depending on which hemisphere you were in. Eurasia had its third largest snow cover extent in the 46-year period of record, while North America had its fourth lowest. As seen in Figure 1, much of North America and Siberia were much warmer than average, while Europe was considerably colder than average. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of February in his February 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for February 2012. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
La Niña weakens, almost gone
A borderline weak La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.5°C below average during February and the the first half of March. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 32% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.
February Arctic sea ice extent fifth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its fifth lowest extent on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Continuing the pattern established in January, conditions differed greatly between the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic. On the Atlantic side, especially in the Barents Sea, air temperatures were higher than average and ice extent was unusually low. February ice extent for the Barents Sea was the lowest in the satellite record, due to air temperatures that ranged from 4 - 8°C (7 - 14°F) above average at the 925 mb level (about 3000 feet above sea level). In contrast, on the Pacific side, February ice extent in the Bering Sea was the second highest in the satellite record, paired with air temperatures that were 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) below average at the 925 mb level. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.
Figure 2. Record-setting hailstone from the Hawaii 'supercell' thunderstorm that hit the Hawaiian island of Oahu on March 9, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/National Weather Service.
Huge hailstone sets Hawaii record
A hailstone with the diameter of roughly that of a grapefruit that hit Oahu on March 9, 2012, has been confirmed as the largest hailstone on record for the state of Hawaii, according to NOAA. The record-setting hailstone was dropped by a “supercell” thunderstorm on the windward side of Oahu. There were numerous reports of hail with diameters of 2 to 3 inches and greater. Hail the size of a penny (diameter of 3/4 inch) or quarter (diameter of one inch) has been reported in Hawaii only eight times since records began, and there is no record of hail larger than 1 inch in diameter. Hail the size of golf balls and baseballs can only form within intense thunderstorms called supercells. These supercells need warm, moist air to rise into progressively colder, drier air, as well as winds changing direction and increasing speed with increasing height off the ground. For both sets of conditions to exist at the same time in Hawaii is extremely rare, but that did occur on March 9. Conditions that day were ideal for a supercell to form, and the storm looked very much like supercell thunderstorms common in the Central U.S. during spring. Supercells can also produce tornadoes, another rarity in Hawaii. The same hail-producing supercell produced a confirmed EF-0 tornado with winds of 60-70 mph in Lanikai and Enchanted Lakes on Oahu.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index
The critters are having a hard enough time trying to survive around Man's margins.
The last thing they need is for even more people to lose empathy/sympathy for their plight because their names are associated with hurricanes.
338 Skyepony: A gas leak at Total's Elgin oil and gas platform in the North Sea, which led to the evacuation of all 238 workers, continued on Monday with observers claiming the sea looked as if it was "boiling".
Pret much would hafta look that way for any substantial flow rate...
...the seabed is only 305feet(93metres) down.
Not much headroom for mixing&diffusion before reaching the surface.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
15:00 PM JST March 29 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1006 hPa) located at 9.8N 112.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.0N 111.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.3N 110.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 10.8N 109.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
Sound can do strange things, sometimes due to temperature inversions, and since these events are all happening about the same time of the evening ... I think; I wouldn't rule out the possibility.
You can have acoustic shadows, as well, and these make for an interesting read.
It's still a little unnerving, however.
Surely you can not achive over saturation, once you have 100 % saturation, you can't add any more.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 AM AST THU MAR 29 2012
PRZ001-002-004>006-008>010-300000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0001.120329T0738Z-120330T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-NORTH CENTRAL-
CENTRAL INTERIOR-NORTHWEST-WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO.. .VEGA BAJA...
DORADO...COAMO...COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA... JAYUYA...
AGUADILLA...ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UT UADO...
SABANA GRANDE...LARES...ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...A GUADA...
LUYANDO
338 AM AST THU MAR 29 2012
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...CENTRAL INTERIOR...EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ
AND VICINITY...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...SAN JUAN
AND VICINITY AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
* RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH AND AS OF 4 AM AST SOME WERE
STILL IN FLOOD STAGE. NUMEROUS...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
CONTINUING...THOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
BAND OF MOISTURE THAT CAUSED YESTERDAY`S HEAVY RAINS WILL
RETURN. AFTERNOON CONVECTION FORMING IN THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL CAUSE HEAVY RAINS OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND RIVERS THAT HAVE NOT RETURNED
TO BASE FLOW...FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...SMALL STREAMS AND
MAINSTEM RIVERS IS VERY LIKELY.
* SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE DE
ARECIBO... THE CULEBRINAS...THE CAMUY AND THE RIO GRANDE DE
MANATI...AMONG OTHERS...COULD RETURN TO MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING. MANY SMALL STREAMS WILL ALSO BECOME SWOLLEN AND BLOCK
HIGHWAYS IN THE AREA. MUDSLIDES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN STEEP
TERRAIN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.
PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.
&&
$$
SNELL
The report specifically points to New Orleans during 2005's Hurricane Katrina, noting that "developed countries also suffer severe disasters because of social vulnerability and inadequate disaster protection."
cant say i agree with all of this but intresting non the less.
I have no buttons and only half a screen on this site again this is the link.
Link: http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/28/10 904327-un-climate-panel-ties-some-weather-extremes -to-global-warming
This has to be one of the BEST ideas I have heard in years.
+1 internets for you sir/madam
No jokes aside, I love it!
It can be downloaded here.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 5
/MON 4-2/ WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING OF THE EJECTING WRN SYSTEM...BUT
DEVIATIONS FROM DAY 6 /TUE 4-3/ ONWARD -- AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES
AREAS NEAR AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS -- RESULT IN FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATTER 2/3 OF THE PERIOD.
WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST DAY 4 /SUN 4-1/...PRIMARILY
NEAR A WARM FRONT INVOF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING
STILL IN PLACE WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM STILL OVER THE ROCKIES SUGGESTS
THAT ANY THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO EXIST DAY 5...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY...AND REACHES A POSITION FROM
ROUGHLY THE UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS MO AND INTO E TX. WHILE
SOME THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS FAR N AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE
OZARKS SWD/SEWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
HERE...STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION LIKELY AND ASSOCIATED
THREATS FOR WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. THREAT WILL
SPREAD EWD WITH TIME...POSSIBLY REACHING THE TN VALLEY AND AL DURING
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED SHIFT EWD
ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAY 6...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED TO/OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY 6 PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS FOLLOWING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AGAIN HOWEVER...WITH
MINOR DEVIATIONS IN MODEL SOLUTION EXPANDING DAY 6...WILL NOT
AREALLY HIGHLIGHT ANY THREAT AREAS WHICH MAY BE EVENTUALLY ADDED
NEAR/E OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LARGE-SCALE/PERSISTENT RIDGING
FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A LULL
IN CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY APPEARS
LIKELY -- AND THUS PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR CONFINED
TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 03/29/2012
More Nonsense from NOAA!
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?TX,S
I think I'm gonna puke this morning!
MOe Global, woming!
Keep the up with the hits, this is great!
YEAAHHHHHH!!!!!!
Yeah, but Hurricane Chickadee and Hurricane Snow Bunny don't exactly elicit fear. :D
Click image for loop.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE NUMBER TWO ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 7:30 PM THIS EVENING THURSDAY 29TH MARCH 2012.
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WATCH ADVICE IS CURRENT FOR RENNELL & BELLONA, WESTERN, CHOISEUL, ISABEL, MALAITA, CENTRAL, MAKIRA, GUADALCANAL AND
TEMOTU PROVINCES.
AT 6.00 PM THIS EVENING , A TROPICAL LOW WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED
NEAR 10.9 DEGREES SOUTH AND 156.2 DEGREES EAST, APPROXIMATELY 220 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF RENNELL ISLAND.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT 06 KNOTS AND INTENSIFY.
EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES OVER MOST OF THE ISLANDS.
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KNOTS) TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY).
SEAS WILL BE MODERATE TO ROUGH WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELLS AND HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUDERSTORMS.
PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES AS BAD WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW POSES THREATS TO LIVES AND PROPERTIES
PLEASE LISTEN TO ALL RADIO OUTLETS FOR FURTHER ADVICES.
THE NEXT ADVICE WILL BE ISSUED AT 7:30 AM TOMORROW MORNING.
DATE: 29TH MARCH 2012.
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Thursday the 29th of March 2012 and valid until end of
Sunday
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
At 1:00pm AEST a broad low pressure system was located to the south of the
Solomon Islands near 10.2S 156.1E. The low is forecast to slowly intensify over
the coming three days and will begin to take a more southeasterly track during
Friday. This system is expected to remain well away from the Queensland coast.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Eastern Region on:
Friday: Low
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: Moderate
NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
With the 6z, we would have a weakening cutoff low.
After perusing the article, and the bills mentioned, it's pretty clear what heir purpose is meant to be. It's also clear that the people who wrote have very little understanding of science and how it operates.
It's always nice to see the Dark Ages trying to make a comeback. :P
The report does not say Katrina was caused by global warming. Rather, they use it as an example to show that as climate changes even developed nations can suffer consequences if not adequately prepared for them.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE NOW WITH A 995MB SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM AR AND THE MID
SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY WHILE SWEEPING A SIGNIFICANT LOW-MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS THROUGH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS(MLCAPES UP TO 2.5K
J/KG) FEATURING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES(7-8C). PROGGED RAOBS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR 3000J/KG SBCAPES IF U60S DEWPOINTS WERE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING. GFS PWATS OF 1.7 INCHES ALSO
WRAP INTO THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER UNDER A 60KT 700MB JET STREAK FROM NRN LA INTO SERN TN.
THIS SHOULD YIELD A HIGHER TORNADO RISK FOR THE NRN HALF OF OUR
CWFA BUT THIS COULD OBVIOUSLY CHANGE AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
SPC JUMPING ON BOARD WITH GROWING SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
ADD MORE SEVERE DETAILS TO THE HWOJAN...ESPECIALLY BEING APRIL.
IM BACK
Link
Dont get yourself banned again.
Good morning SPl...heard you got a 48hr ban
try not talking about banning, administrators, how bad the rules are, and only mention the weather like me. :)
Thanks for the update Tropics
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17F
18:00 PM FST March 29 2012
=================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 17F (1000 hPa) located at 17.9S 175.9E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.
Organization has improved slightly past 24 hours. Convection remains persistent. Tropical depression 17 lies under an upper diffluent region in a high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.
Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it south with little intensification.
Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR (T1201)
21:00 PM JST March 29 2012
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Pakhar (1004 hPa) located at 9.8N 111.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 10.0N 111.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 10.3N 110.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 11.0N 108.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency on TC Pakhar will be issued at 15:50 PM UTC..
Be Careful.......
Have u seen the Day 5 convective outlook?
yeah.
Link
Nice hodograph this afternooon in NW Missouri
this is a cool map. Thanks for sharing
Link
did they explain to you why you were banned? I was wondering if they told you what you did so you wouldn't do it again.
Welcome back! Please toe the line more this time, because you actually have good input sometimes.
Viewing: 351 - 401
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index