Great Lakes ice cover down 71% since 1973
Ice cover on North America's Great Lakes--Superior, Michigan, Huron, Ontario, and Erie--has declined 71% since 1973, says a new study published in the Journal of Climate by researchers at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. The biggest loser of ice during the 1973 - 2010 time period was Lake Ontario, which saw an 88% decline in ice cover. During the same time period, Superior lost 79% of its ice, Michigan lost 77%, Huron lost 62%, and Erie lost 50%. The loss of ice is due to warming of the lake waters. Winter air temperatures over the lower Great Lake increased by about 2.7°F (1.5°C) from 1973 - 2010, and by 4 - 5°F (2.3 - 2.7°C) over the northern Lakes, including Lake Superior. Lake Superior's summer surface water temperature warmed 4.5°F (2.5°C) over the period 1979 - 2006 (Austin and Colman 2007). During the same period, Lake Michigan warmed by about 3.3°F (1.7°C), Lake Huron by 4.3°F (2.4°C), and Lake Erie showed almost no warming. The amount of warming of the waters in Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan is higher than one might expect, because of a process called the ice-albedo feedback: when ice melts, it exposes darker water, which absorbs more sunlight, warming the water, forcing even more ice to melt. This sort of vicious cycle is also responsible for the recent extreme loss of Arctic sea ice. The increase in temperature of the lakes could be due to a combination of global warming and natural cycles, the researchers said. They noted a pronounced 4-year and 8-year oscillation in ice coverage, which could be caused by the El Niño/La Niña and Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively.
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Figure 1. A tale of two winters: Lake Superior was choked with ice at the end of the winter of 2008 - 2009 (top), but was virtually ice-free at the end of the winter of 2011 - 2012 (bottom.) Image credit: NASA.
The consequences of Great Lakes ice loss
Ice coverage on the Great Lakes was just 5% this past winter, the second lowest on record, behind 2002. The lack of Great Lakes ice this winter probably added a few degrees of warmth to the unprecedented "Summer in March" conditions observed in Michigan last week--an event the National Weather Service in Detroit called "perhaps the most anomalous weather event in Michigan since climate records began 130 years ago." We can anticipate that areas surrounding the Great Lakes will see an increased incidence of warm spring weather due to decreased ice cover on the lakes.
The loss of Great Lakes ice has allowed much more water to evaporate in winter, resulting in heavier lake effect snow near the shore, and lower lake levels. Lower water levels have had a significant impact on the Great Lakes economy. Over 200 million tons of cargo are shipped every year through the Great Lakes. Since 1998, when water levels took a severe drop, commercial ships were forced to light-load their vessels. For every inch of clearance that these oceangoing vessels lost because of low water levels, $11,000 - $22,000 in profits were lost per day. Hydropower plants have also been affected by low water levels; several New York and Michigan plants were run at reduced capacity, forcing them to buy higher priced energy from other sources, and passing on the higher costs to consumers. The large loss of ice is also likely to accelerate shoreline erosion because of the increase in open water, and promote more algal blooms. It is uncertain if the Great Lake water levels will continue to fall as the climate warms, since the region is expected to see an increase in precipitation over the coming decades. In Michigan, annual precipitation increased by about 14% between 1895 - 2011, according to the National Climatic Data Center.
Figure 2. Great Lakes ice coverage for the period December 4 - March 5, from the winter of 1980 - 1981 through 2011 - 2012. The winter of 2011 - 2012 had the second lowest ice coverage on record, just 5%. Only 2001 - 2002 (4.5%) had lower ice cover. The median ice coverage between 1980 - 2011 was about 19%. Image credit: Environment Canada.
Figure 3. Water levels on Lake Superior between 1860 and February 2012. Since the late 1990s, water levels have seen a steep decline, due to the loss of ice cover allowing more evaporation. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.
References
Austin, J. A., and S. Colman, 2007, "Lake Superior summer water temperatures are increasing more rapidly than regional air temperatures: A positive ice-albedo feedback," Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06604, doi:10.1029/2006GL029021.
Wang, J., X. Bai, H. Hu, A.H. Clites, M.C. Colton, and B.M. Lofgren, 2012, "Temporal and spatial variability of Great Lakes ice cover, 1973-2010," Journal of Climate 25(4):1318-1329 (DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4066.1)
Have a great weekend, everyone! I'll be back by Monday at the latest with a new post, and may post some weather humor on Sunday (April Fools Day), as well.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
211 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012
FLZ045-144-311900-
ORANGE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
211 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...
* UNTIL 300 PM EDT.
AT 205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE LOUISA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE BAY HILL...BELLE ISLE...DOCTOR PHILLIPS AND
ORLOVISTA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.
STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS
ARE IN USE.
LAT...LON 2866 8146 2864 8146 2864 8137 2835 8126
2834 8179 2836 8180 2836 8185 2834 8186
2834 8188 2848 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 254DEG 25KT 2842 8179
$$
BOWEN
Yes, I do. But let's not start a flame war over free speech. I might not agree with someone, but I agree that they have the right to say it...
I was just about to pull that quote out, lol!
FLC037-311845-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0034.120331T1819Z-120331T1845Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
219 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
* UNTIL 245 PM EDT
* AT 216 PM EDT...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 3 MILES NORTH LANARK VILLAGE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TURKEY POINT...SAINT TERESA AND ALLIGATOR POINT
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
MOVE TO A HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
OUTSIDE WALLS.
&&
LAT...LON 2990 8467 2998 8462 2994 8433 2989 8434
2990 8444 2992 8447 2991 8448 2989 8447
2987 8450 2988 8451 2990 8450 2991 8453
2986 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 291DEG 17KT 2992 8461
$$
38-GODSEY
New Hartford CT this morning!
FLC037-311845-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0034.120331T1819Z-120331T1845Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
219 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
* UNTIL 245 PM EDT
* AT 216 PM EDT...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 3 MILES NORTH LANARK VILLAGE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TURKEY POINT...SAINT TERESA AND ALLIGATOR POINT
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
MOVE TO A HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
OUTSIDE WALLS.
&&
LAT...LON 2990 8467 2998 8462 2994 8433 2989 8434
2990 8444 2992 8447 2991 8448 2989 8447
2987 8450 2988 8451 2990 8450 2991 8453
2986 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 291DEG 17KT 2992 8461
$$
38-GODSEY
Hi, Nigel
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012
FLZ045-053-144-311915-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
230 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012
...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...
* UNTIL 315 PM EDT.
AT 225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ANIMAL KINGDOM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE CELEBRATION...LAKE BUENA VISTA AND DOCTOR
PHILLIPS.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.
STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS
ARE IN USE.
LAT...LON 2837 8181 2857 8126 2826 8118 2822 8154
2826 8156 2826 8166 2834 8167 2834 8179
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 246DEG 23KT 2833 8167
$$
BOWEN
Flooding and landslides will likely be an issue
Good afternoon Nigel. I can tell you that so far no flood advisories have been issued at this time,and that is real change from the past few days,when those started to come out around 11 AM EDT.
What's up Grothar?
You're not alone, down here in Central Florida it did that to me as well, for a long while the strongest part of the line was headed right at me, then it broke up into to separate areas just as it moved in, and then of course it filled back in after it passed me...
We are really, really dry. My whole front yard is completely brown, my yearly rain total is only 4.03 inches so far, our yearly total should be a bit over 10 in reality by now for the average.
We could have really used that strong cell, we are just getting light rain instead, it did rain really heavy for about 30 seconds just to tease us as a strong cell scraped just to our north, but that didn't add up to much, especially when is dry like this.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012
FLC037-311845-
/O.CON.KTAE.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-120331T1845Z/
FRANKLIN FL-
233 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY...
AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR TURKEY POINT...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SAINT
TERESA AND ALLIGATOR POINT
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
&&
LAT...LON 2988 8460 2997 8458 2994 8433 2989 8434
2990 8444 2992 8447 2991 8448 2989 8447
2987 8450 2988 8451 2990 8450 2991 8453
2986 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 289DEG 20KT 2992 8449
$$
42-DVD
Just showing how boring it would be without weather.
Just got back from a morning boating. We got a little rain out there. Weather is perfect now. Still geting any rain out your way?
Good afternoon Tropicsweatherpr...thanks for the update. I hope Puerto Rico get enough time to dry out before any further rains
no...it has been dry over the past two days. Haiti had 6 deaths associated with early season rainfall...it's so that they continue to suffer
FZUS72 KTBW 311827
MWSTBW
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
227 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012
GMZ830-853-311900-
/O.CON.KTBW.MA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120331T1900Z/
227 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012
...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT...
FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
TAMPA BAY WATERS...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM...
INCLUDING ANNA MARIA ISLAND...EGMONT KEY...JOHNS PASS...PASS-A-GRILLE
CHANNEL...SAINT PETE BEACH...SUNSHINE SKYWAY BRIDGE...TAMPA BAY AND
TERRA CEIA BAY...
AT 222 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER
OVER SUNSHINE SKYWAY BRIDGE...OR ABOUT 2 NM WEST OF SUNSHINE SKYWAY
BRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 15 KNOTS.
* THE WILL BE NEAR...
TAMPA BAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.
&&
LAT...LON 2783 8239 2776 8239 2775 8245 2769 8252
2769 8250 2762 8256 2758 8254 2748 8264
2751 8289 2781 8285 2782 8275 2776 8274
2770 8265 2784 8262 2786 8254 2782 8248
2786 8249 2787 8240 2785 8235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 271DEG 17KT 2760 8267
$$
Actually, that's been there since the 12Z outlook. What they have added however is a Day 2 Slight risk across northeast Kentucky, northeast West Virginia, much of southern Ohio, and east/southeast Indiana.
It is much less boring with clouds and whatnot.
Link
Yes, I saw that. Terrible shame. It looks like the pattern may be for storms to develop closer to land this year. Not a good thing.
Moisture, moisture and more moisture
Ooh. More severe weather for me.
Much of the Atlantic is going to light up with moisture the second week of April if the 15-day GFS MJO forecast holds true. That is a very strong upward phase.
Haiti really need a break to recover...hopefully the hurricane season will not be bad for them
The caribbean have been generally wet over the past two weeks, if this pans out we could see further rains and possibly flooding
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
327 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI...
* UNTIL 415 PM EDT
* AT 325 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MARLINS
STADIUM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LITTLE HAVANA...
LIBERTY CITY...
LITTLE HAITI...
MIAMI BEACH...
NORTH BAY VILLAGE...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM
EXTERIOR WALLS AND WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.
&&
And i might be happy if this holds true, so knowing the Long range GFS, it wont:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST SAT MAR 31 2012
.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE LOCAL AREA WILL
GENERALLY BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND TROUGHINESS TO THE NORTH...WITH A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS PASSING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STILL EXPECT
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...
TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. PLEASE REFER TO SJUZFPPR FOR THE FORECAST
DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES... AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL 31/22Z.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 86 / 30 30 10 20
STT 73 84 74 84 / 40 40 10 10
It went right over Miami, wonder if there was a tornado. Might have been a lot of spring breakers around in the streets.
Was a hook and strong rotation.
Warning has been cancled, don't think a tornado actually formed, nothing on any local channels at least. Spring breakers would be out on the beach, not downtown Miami.
If there was a storm, spring breakers would be indoors and not on the streets nor on the beach.
The official NWS site is still quite a ways away from the previous record, and I don't know if it will make another 7 degrees, seems unlikely.
You'd be surprised how not true that is. I was in Orlando early last summer at one of the Disney parks and a storm moved through- You could hear thunder in the distance and see the black sky and even some lightning and yet hardly anyone took shelter. Luckily the storm either weakened or just grazed us because we only had a quick burst of heavy rain and a little thunder.
The moral: Tourists are generally either clueless or just don't care.
When I was at WDW in 2010 there was a tornado warning in the neighboring county, heading in the direction of the park. Seemed like no one even noticed. (it was pretty hard not to notice there was a thunderstorm, it nearly flooded our campsite)
The storm died out before it actually got to the park, but nonetheless it was the last time I was even in a tornado watch. :P
There is a difference between seeing thunder, lightning, and dark clouds in the distance and actually being outside during a heavy thunderstorm with torrential rainfall though. I don't think they'd go on with their business with rain like they just had.
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