Posted by: AngelaFritz, 21:36 GMT le 03 avril 2012
+42
At least three tornadoes have ripped through the Dallas metro area this afternoon, one passing between Dallas and Fort Worth, bearing down on the Dallas-Fort Worth airport but narrowly missing to the east. The other two tornadoes passed east of Dallas, one touching down near the town of Forney, where there were reports of impacts to the high school. The DFW airport issued a ground stop for all incoming flights and grounded all planes at their airports, and a spokesman said they were sheltering passengers. The airport is now closed while they inspect the planes for hail damage, and can accept no incoming flights for lack of a place to put them.
Residential neighborhoods were completely destroyed in the Arlington tornado, and tractor trailers were tossed like toys. Extensive damage was done to the Green Oaks nursing home and rehab center, which is just east of Lake Arlington. The Arlington tornado was on the ground for approximately 30 minutes. In addition to the tornadoes, trained storm spotters were reporting hail up to three inches in diameter, which is approximately the size of a baseball.
The mayor and city council of Arlington, Texas declared a state of disaster for the city when, just an hour after the tornado had passed through, it was obvious that the area had sustained incredible damage.
Tornado warnings continue to be issued, and the potential for severe thunderstorms with and tornadoes will continue through the evening in eastern Texas, Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana. The convective outlook paints a good picture of the tornado potential for the rest of the evening. If you're in one of these regions, stay alert for tornado watches or warnings that may be issued.
Radar reflectivity of the tornadic thunderstorms as they passed over the Dallas metro area this afternoon. The storms that produced tornadoes are circled, and Arlington, Texas has been pointed out on the map.
Tornado warnings (red) and severe thunderstorm warnings (yellow) at the time two tornadoes were passing to the east and west of Dallas, Texas.
Video of the Arlington tornado developing as it crosses US-287 near Sublett Road, from Twitter user @wesstevens.
Video 2. Dramatic video of semi-trailers being tossed more than 100 feet in the air by the Lancaster, Texas tornado of April 3, 2012.
A co-worker was describing the severe storm that rolled through eastern Iowa Saturday night and mentioned golf ball sized hail that damaged his home. He produced this photo as evidence. I told Nathan I would share with the WU family.
no one knows..last year the experts predicted an above average season and you see how that turn out. Wait and see is my approach to the season. Predicting storms in April that will happen between a time span of June to November baffles me when we cant even say with certanity if it will be cold next week or not
That's a good point
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510
no one knows..last year the experts predicted an above average season and you see how that turn out. Wait and see is my approach to the season. Predicting storms in April that will happen between a time span of June to November baffles me when we cant even say with certanity if it will be cold next week or not
They predicted an above average season...and we got an above average season. I don't see your point in that first sentence?
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25208
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is still in fantasy land, so I am not getting my hopes up. However, the GFS shows a fantastic setup for Severe Weather starting on April 14, and lasting through April 16-17. The 12Z model trended more aggressive than previous runs, and the more reliable ECMWF has an even more potent storm system ejecting into the plains. Something to watch for sure.
This could be bad if the forecast pan out
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510
Quoting HouGalv08: A lot of factors come into play that determine whether or not we have an active season, but one of the most important is if we have an El Niño or La Nina present in the eastern Pacific. This year it looks like the La Nina will have died and transitioned to an El Niño. El niño is warmer water in the eastern Pacific along the coast of central America and northern South America. Warmer water equals rising air. Rising air must go somewhere, and that is usually eastward in the upper atmosphere. Stronger eastward air currents shear the tops of thunderstorms, thus shearing the tops of thunder storm waves that come of the west African coast, the seeds of most hurricanes. Thus, fewer hurricanes due to fewer waves developing into the initial low pressure areas that usually become first tropical storms.
Thanks, thats a ton of info and simple enough for even me, lolz. One last question, Does that mean the ideal situation would be a neutral year?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: They predicted an above average season...and we got an above average season. I don't see your point in that first sentence?
Just read that and wondered he same thing...
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6070
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: This is still in fantasy land, so I am not getting my hopes up. However, the GFS shows a fantastic setup for Severe Weather starting on April 14, and lasting through April 16-17. The 12Z model trended more aggressive than previous runs, and the more reliable ECMWF has an even more potent storm system ejecting into the plains. Something to watch for sure.
Looks like a very strong dip in the jet stream combined with a nice south flow.... Strong winds and pretty much garrunteed moisture. That set up could put on storms through the panhandles And across Kansas rolling east
I hope those models don't come true, I also kinda wanna track em too hahh
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6070
Quoting StormTracker2K: Looks like a core of 60mph winds bowing toward Tampa
Yeah radar does show a downdraft region of 50 to 55 knots offshore with the stronger cells in that line. If they hold as strong as they are now there will likely be warnings, the airmass is quite cold aloft and that will support hail/damaging winds.
The tricky part here is that every model shows this collapsing as it approaching the coast. The reason for this is there is a tight gradient between deep moisture and dry air, if the line outruns the moisture flow into it, it will weaken substantially. However if moisture feed remains intact the atmosphere should be plenty unstable enough to keep strong storms all the way into Tampa Bay.
That being said, because of the uncertainty, don't get your hopes up, the storms will most likely not be as impressive as they are now when they reach the coast. However, like I said there is still a chance they will stay strong, so its worth tracking for sure :)
Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5322
#1 - Weather Underground: 41% of votes #2 - National Weather Service: 20% of votes #3 - The Weather Channel: 19% of votes #4 - Weather Spark: 11% of votes #5 - AccuWeather: 9% of votes
Weather Undrground is the go to site for weather...with expert opinion from Dr. Master, Angela Fritz...etc. I have been using Weather underground for all weather information since 2007 and I will always use Weather Underground. Thanks Dr. Master for creating such a wonderful website
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4510
The new El Nino/La Nina forecast should be coming out tomorrow. They have been called for Enso Neutral condition through May. It is normal for La Nina to dissipate in the Spring months in the Northern hemisphere. I personally do not see a strong El Nino developing any time soon. It will be interesting to read what the new report will have.
This is one of the first years I have to disagree with Dr. Gray. Whilst I don't think it will be a very above average season, I do believe his forecast is a little too conservative. I would tell him, but he scares me.
I am thinking along those same lines. I mentioned it on TropicalwxPR,s Blog.
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14248
Scientific Forecaster Discussion NWS Discussion Return to Local Conditions & Forecast Expanded Version (without abbreviations)Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)
Area forecast discussion National Weather Service New Orleans la 311 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 4 2012
Synopsis... slow moving upper level low over Texas Panhandle will drift east tonight. Associated with the upper level low is a low pressure trough in East Texas. The upper level low and trough will move east tonight causing another round of thunderstorms and heavy rain to develop across the area late this evening and over night. Used consensus of GFS and European model (ecmwf) models as basis for forecast.
&&
Short term... a few hours Grace before thunderstorms develop or move into the area from the west tonight. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in the area. There is a even greater risk of 2 to 3 inches of heavy rain overnight. Most of the area got 2 to 3 inches of rainfall during the past 24 hours...so the ground is saturated and any heavy rain will result in flash flooding.
&&
Long term... the upper level low is expected to move east of the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday with a ridge of high pressure building over the area. The ridge will weaken Monday through Tuesday allowing a series of upper level disturbances to approach the forecast area from the northwest. Confidence in getting rainfall Monday and Tuesday is not high...so am only go with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE U/L LOW APPROACHING THE REGION...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE IN THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DECREASING CLOUDINESS OCCURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
Looks like their forecast was a little slow lol.
Member Since: 1 décembre 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458
We'll see if this line holds up or comes in just south of Tampa Bay. Many times these storms fizzle a lot as they approach the coast.
just looked out in the gulf, i see the clouds and the flashes of lightning, its a ways out yet, love to get the rain from this, just hold off on the 60 mph winds ok lol
Member Since: 6 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421
Orleans Flash Flood Watch Statement as of 3:32 PM CDT on April 04, 2012
... Flash Flood Watch now in effect through Thursday morning...
The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for
* portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi... including the following areas... in southeast Louisiana... Ascension... Assumption... East Baton Rouge... East Feliciana... Iberville... Livingston... lower Jefferson... lower Lafourche... lower Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard... lower Terrebonne... northern Tangipahoa... Orleans... Pointe Coupee... southern Tangipahoa... St. Charles... St. Helena... St. James... St. John The Baptist... St. Tammany... upper Jefferson... upper Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard... upper Terrebonne... Washington... West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana. In southern Mississippi... Amite... Hancock... Harrison... Jackson... Pearl River... Pike... Walthall and Wilkinson.
* Through Thursday morning
* periods of very heavy rainfall during the past 24 hours have produced 2 to 3 inches of rainfall over most southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi. Parts of the city of may have received 4 inches of rain. More thunderstorms are developing along the Texas coast associated with an upper level disturbance. These thunderstorms area expected to move into the area during the overnight hours producing an additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches. The ground is saturated. So this rain will pond up very quickly. Much of this rain will fall in a short period of time which will result in flash flooding.
* Repeat areas of very heavy rainfall will result in flash flooding of streets... streams... canals... and low lying and poorly drained areas.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244
Quoting Articuno: wtf is weather spark? I've never heard of it.
It is a fairly new, neat site. Good for visually seeing current forecasts and past data for most weather observing sites in the country. Has sites all over the world. Nice way to see observations/forecasts in the context of climate normals and percentiles, as well.
Member Since: 28 septembre 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1528
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE U/L LOW APPROACHING THE REGION...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE IN THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND DECREASING CLOUDINESS OCCURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
Looks like their forecast was a little slow lol.
I believe they are talking about another system which should be moving in that area tomorrow.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19500
that line has shown rotation on the Northern end, and even a TVS sig for as time.
thanks, Im on that north end of this line if it doesnt change direction, looks like i'll be up tonight till it passes, dont like all that red in the line, might get squally here with winds too
Member Since: 6 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22421
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That's a good point
They predicted an above average season...and we got an above average season. I don't see your point in that first sentence?
This could be bad if the forecast pan out
Thanks, thats a ton of info and simple enough for even me, lolz. One last question, Does that mean the ideal situation would be a neutral year?
Just read that and wondered he same thing...
#1 - Weather Underground: 41% of votes
#2 - National Weather Service: 20% of votes
#3 - The Weather Channel: 19% of votes
#4 - Weather Spark: 11% of votes
#5 - AccuWeather: 9% of votes
Looks like a very strong dip in the jet stream combined with a nice south flow.... Strong winds and pretty much garrunteed moisture. That set up could put on storms through the panhandles And across Kansas rolling east
I hope those models don't come true, I also kinda wanna track em too hahh
Oh I kinda liked him haha
Wait who is WU obsorbing
NEXRAD Radar
Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation
Range 124 NMI
It's hard to believe that InaccuWeather is one there.
Who re we absorbing
Huh?
Yeah radar does show a downdraft region of 50 to 55 knots offshore with the stronger cells in that line. If they hold as strong as they are now there will likely be warnings, the airmass is quite cold aloft and that will support hail/damaging winds.
The tricky part here is that every model shows this collapsing as it approaching the coast. The reason for this is there is a tight gradient between deep moisture and dry air, if the line outruns the moisture flow into it, it will weaken substantially. However if moisture feed remains intact the atmosphere should be plenty unstable enough to keep strong storms all the way into Tampa Bay.
That being said, because of the uncertainty, don't get your hopes up, the storms will most likely not be as impressive as they are now when they reach the coast. However, like I said there is still a chance they will stay strong, so its worth tracking for sure :)
Oh alright I was actually gonna get a bunker account but I guess that isn't necessary....
Um that was an April Fool's joke lol.
Happy New Years it is then, Oops...
Weather Undrground is the go to site for weather...with expert opinion from Dr. Master, Angela Fritz...etc. I have been using Weather underground for all weather information since 2007 and I will always use Weather Underground. Thanks Dr. Master for creating such a wonderful website
wtf is weather spark?
I've never heard of it.
NEXRAD Radar
Base Reflectivity 0.50 Elevation
Range 248 NMI
Also,TSR will release their April forecast on Thursday.
Link
NWS Discussion
Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Expanded Version (without abbreviations)Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
311 PM CDT Wednesday Apr 4 2012
Synopsis...
slow moving upper level low over Texas Panhandle will drift east
tonight. Associated with the upper level low is a low pressure
trough in East Texas. The upper level low and trough will move
east tonight causing another round of thunderstorms and heavy rain
to develop across the area late this evening and over night. Used
consensus of GFS and European model (ecmwf) models as basis for forecast.
&&
Short term...
a few hours Grace before thunderstorms develop or move into the
area from the west tonight. There is a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms in the area. There is a even greater risk of 2 to 3
inches of heavy rain overnight. Most of the area got 2 to 3 inches
of rainfall during the past 24 hours...so the ground is saturated
and any heavy rain will result in flash flooding.
&&
Long term...
the upper level low is expected to move east of the lower
Mississippi Valley on Thursday with a ridge of high pressure
building over the area. The ridge will weaken Monday through
Tuesday allowing a series of upper level disturbances to approach
the forecast area from the northwest. Confidence in getting
rainfall Monday and Tuesday is not high...so am only go with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE U/L LOW APPROACHING THE
REGION...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE IN THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS OCCURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
Looks like their forecast was a little slow lol.
Flash Flood Watch
Statement as of 3:32 PM CDT on April 04, 2012
... Flash Flood Watch now in effect through Thursday morning...
The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for
* portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
including the following areas... in southeast Louisiana...
Ascension... Assumption... East Baton Rouge... East Feliciana...
Iberville... Livingston... lower Jefferson... lower Lafourche...
lower Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard... lower Terrebonne...
northern Tangipahoa... Orleans... Pointe Coupee... southern
Tangipahoa... St. Charles... St. Helena... St. James... St. John
The Baptist... St. Tammany... upper Jefferson... upper
Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard... upper
Terrebonne... Washington... West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana.
In southern Mississippi... Amite... Hancock... Harrison...
Jackson... Pearl River... Pike... Walthall and Wilkinson.
* Through Thursday morning
* periods of very heavy rainfall during the past 24 hours have
produced 2 to 3 inches of rainfall over most southeast Louisiana
and south Mississippi. Parts of the city of may have received 4
inches of rain. More thunderstorms are developing along the
Texas coast associated with an upper level disturbance. These
thunderstorms area expected to move into the area during the
overnight hours producing an additional rainfall of 2 to 3
inches. The ground is saturated. So this rain will pond up very
quickly. Much of this rain will fall in a short period of time
which will result in flash flooding.
* Repeat areas of very heavy rainfall will result in flash
flooding of streets... streams... canals... and low lying and
poorly drained areas.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.
It is a fairly new, neat site. Good for visually seeing current forecasts and past data for most weather observing sites in the country. Has sites all over the world. Nice way to see observations/forecasts in the context of climate normals and percentiles, as well.
that line has shown rotation on the Northern end, and even a TVS sig for as time.
I believe they are talking about another system which should be moving in that area tomorrow.
Indeed, note the front way back here still tonight.
This will be the 3rd meso system to come thru NOLA and Se La. the past 3 evenings from it,...the upper low.
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