CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas
Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.
Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.
Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:
1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.
2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.
How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.
CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.
Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.
Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.
Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.
Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Haha, the mental image of what those button inputs would do kinda negate sexiness. Do they sell Brutality as well?
Here is where I got it from.
Link
I forgot to tell you earlier...that has been there since the website upgrade in 2009 iirc.
No it hasn't :P
Yes, it has. :P I noticed it back in 2010.
EDIT: I was wrong, it goes back to 2007 (Hurricane Omar is the only interesting storm caught by it though :P).
Oh and here's Dora near peak intensity.
Have I proved you wrong yet? :P
earthdata.nasa.gov
Sent you mail with instructions on how. It's pretty easy.
Really?
They had that page last year as well, just click on active storms.
My February Forecast:
14 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
4 Intense Hurricanes
With the new details and a bit better idea of the season, here are my new predictions:
13 Named Storms
6 Hurricanes
2 Intense Hurricanes
Be back soon enough I guess.
We had a drizzly, light rainy type afternoon here in Nassau [hence the early bed time tonight...] and it looks like the wx I expected to pass well north of us is likely to bring an appropriately overcast damp Good Friday holiday along.
I'm kinda liking the idea of a slower season, though if we aren't fully into el nino by August I think we may find it a bit busier than currently expected. Since most 2 year la ninas are followed by el nino, I expect we will get at least a weak dip into that phase of the ENSO by winter.
Title: Coast Guard cannon fire sinks Japanese ghost ship
Date: April 5, 2012 at 10:59p ET
The long, lonely voyage of the Japanese ghost ship is over.
A U.S. Coast Guard cutter unleashed cannon fire on the abandoned 164-foot Ryou-Un Maru on Thursday, ending a journey that began when last year’s tsunami dislodged it and set it adrift across the Pacific Ocean. [...]
A huge column of smoke could be seen over the gulf. [...]
“It’s less risky than it would be running into shore or running into (maritime) traffic,” Webb said. [...]
When the boat left the area, the Coast Guard began to fire, first with 25 mm shells, then a few hours later with ammunition twice that size. [...]
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57409873/japa nese-ghost-ship-sinks/
Source: Dartmouth College
Date: April 2, 2012
[...] The radioisotope iodine-131, a significant constituent of the fallout, is a by-product of nuclear fission, highly radioactive, acutely toxic and presents a health risk upon its release to the environment. It does have a relatively short half-life, which is both a blessing and a curse, Landis notes. “It releases a lot of radioactivity, which makes it dangerous, but it’s gone very quickly so there is no long term exposure risk,” he says. Its high radioactivity, however, makes it very detectable by the gamma-ray spectroscopy instruments used by the Dartmouth team in its analyses.
This is not the case with another isotope, iodine-129, released concurrently with iodine-131. It is not as radioactive, which makes it much harder to measure, but it is much longer lasting [15.7 million year half-life] and, as it concentrates in certain areas over time, it may become more hazardous. “Due to its long half-life and continued release from ongoing nuclear energy production, [iodine-129] is perpetually accumulating in the environment and poses a growing radiological risk,” the authors point out.
The production rate of these two isotopes in a nuclear reactor occurs at a fixed ratio of 3 parts iodine-131 to one part iodine-129. The two substances travel together, so the presence of the easily detectable isotope also signals the presence of the longer-lived one. “If you have a recent event like Fukushima, you are going to have both present. The iodine-131 is going to decay away pretty quickly over the course of weeks, but the iodine-129 is there forever, essentially,” Landis says. However, he explains, “Once the iodine-131 decays, you lose your ability to track the migration of either isotope.”
Thus, the group’s research turned toward the development of an innovative alternative approach to measuring and tracking the iodine. What became an important off-shoot of their work was the methodology of using the benign radioisotope, beryllium-7, as the tracking indicator. It’s an easily detected natural radionuclide, and is routinely used by the Dartmouth researchers in their environmental analyses.
The Dartmouth researchers have shown that beryllium-7 follows the same transport paths as the iodine isotopes. By ascertaining the ratio of association of the beryllium to the iodine, tracing the beryllium-7 as it moves through the environment then allowed the researchers to track the parallel transport of iodine, and to demonstrate the accumulation of iodine fallout in stream sediments.
http://www.sciencecodex.com/dartmouth_scientists_ track_radioactive_iodine_from_japan_nuclear_reacto r_meltdown-89004
new gfs coming in
Never heard of crying wolf too many times ?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
520 AM EDT FRI APR 6 2012
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-062130 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
520 AM EDT FRI APR 6 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF BUT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND SMALL HAIL.
...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
ROBUST WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENT TODAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS
WIND AND OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT STRONGER OR MORE FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.
...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ON GULF WATERS TODAY FOR NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THE GULF TONIGHT
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS EXPECTED ON THE GULF.
...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS WORKING SATURDAY WITH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REACHING CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
THIS DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE SPREAD OF WILD
FIRES.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
$$
09/RKR
100,000's who will vacate safely along the Gulf.
Not a drop.
You're right- It's OracleDeAtlantis post 324- Every
time he posts a video it messes the blog up. I've got
him on ignore, which is a shame because he's
well intentioned.
However putting him on ignore will
fix the blog for you.
436 AM EDT FRI APR 6 2012
.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS TO STATE THAT THE
FIRST PERIOD OF THE FCST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS, IT APPEARED THAT THERE WAS A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE TSRA TODAY BUT SUDDENLY THE PLAN HAS CHANGED.
A LARGE MCS DEVELOPED OVER THE GOFMEX LAST NIGHT AND PRIOR TO
REACHING THE KEYS AS IT MOVED TO THE SE RAPIDLY WEAKENED AND HAS
NOW COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. CLOSE ANALYSIS REVEALS THIS CONVECTION
WAS UNDERGOING MID/UPPER CONVERGENCE WITH LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WHICH CUT OFF ALL DYNAMICS. LAPS ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES THE
HIGHEST CAPE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS NOW OVER THE FL STRAITS AND
OFF THE SE CST OF THE PENINSULA WHERE NEW CONVECTION HAS FORMED.
THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WX TODAY IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SW OF
THE LOW AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA OF THE PANHANDLE.
ALL OF THE MODELS COMPLETELY DIVERGE ON THE SOLUTION OF TODAY`S
CONVECTION RANGING FROM THE NAM WHICH SHOWS NOTHING (ALTHOUGH IT
DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL AT ALL) TO THE SHORT TERM RAPID REFRESH
WHICH NORMALLY PERFORMS THE BEST INSISTS ON REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
THAT IT WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF THE CWA AND ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. FOR ALL THESE REASONING`S, HAVE
DRASTICALLY LOWERED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND SCALED BACK FROM
LIKELY TO CHANCE FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE LAKE REGION AROUND NOON AND OFF THE SE
CST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS, THE FCST GETS MUCH EASIER
WITH A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.
WITH A PROLONGED NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS S FL AND
A RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Link
not a drop of rain here in boca raton.
No, he's right- the blog gets messed up every night.
StormTracker2K has a lot of trolls imitate him for some reason... The user you saw yesterday may have been titled StormTrackr2K as he was trolling yesterday, or SlormTracker2K, although I believe he was banned...
I get up early, go through the normal web sites, then head to work, call a co-worker on the way, he says hey stupid it's Good-Friday, were closed, go back home.
Well that's what I get for taking the last two days off form work!
Again what a dummy!
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT FRI APR 06 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 061244Z - 061415Z
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMING ACROSS SRN FL SHOULD MOVE EWD WHILE
DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH MIDDAY. A FEW TSTMS MAY STRENGTHEN AND POSE
A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE REGION WILL
BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 13Z SWODY1 AND THE PROBABILITY
OF A WW ISSUANCE IS 40 PERCENT.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
W/E-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE BAND THAT FORMED IN THE WAKE OF AN MCS WHICH
MOVED ACROSS THE FL KEYS LAST EVENING. 12Z MFL/EYW RAOBS ARE RATHER
FAVORABLE IN CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE IN MFL AND
RESULTANT PW VALUE NEAR 1.6 INCH IS LIKELY OVERDONE COMPARED TO GPS
PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.4 INCH. LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING INCREASINGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW TODAY AS
THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST PROGRESSES
EWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING SHEAR AND ORIENTATION OF THE
CONVECTION LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE CONFLUENCE BAND. THUS...POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EXIST PRIMARILY THIS MORNING AND
ALONG THE SERN FL COAST AS STORMS MATURE OVER LAND...A SCENARIO
GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY RECENT HRRR/WRF-NSSL GUIDANCE.
..GRAMS.. 04/06/2012
Wow, looks like extreme drought striken south Texas might be getting some relief today!
Oh Brownsville had flooding last week!
Anyway, post 340 caught my eye...psbl subtropical cyclone on April 16? Didn't someone last week also post a model run of a subtropical cyclone developing by April 9 (presumably the system leaving the US east coast right now)?
Hope we don't get another super outbreak out of this one!
Just ignore OracleDeAtlantis (post 324)
His videos mess the blog up
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
GMZ656-061400-
/O.NEW.KMFL.MA.W.0021.120406T1309Z-120406T1400Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
909 AM EDT FRI APR 6 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
* UNTIL 1000 AM EDT
* AT 907 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER...ABOUT 17 NM WEST OF NAPLES...MOVING EAST AT 30 KNOTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE WATER...BOATERS CAN EXPECT STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. MOVE
TO SAFE HARBOR OR STAY CLOSE TO SHORE UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. IF
CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER...MAKE SURE ALL SAFETY GEAR IS AVAILABLE AND
LIFE JACKETS ARE BEING WORN BY YOU AND YOUR CREW.
&&
LAT...LON 2623 8205 2629 8182 2626 8183 2622 8181
2617 8181 2614 8178 2607 8179 2602 8173
2601 8173 2590 8208 2599 8213 2610 8214
2611 8220 2615 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 1308Z 256DEG 29KT 2610 8212
$$
AK
Yes,I did that and all is fine.
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