March 2012: warmest in U.S. history
Not only was March 2012 the warmest March in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, it was also the second most extreme month for warmth in U.S. history, said NOAA yesterday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. The average temperature of 51.1°F was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average for March, and 0.5°F warmer than the previous warmest March in 1910. Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. weather records began in 1895, only one month--January 2006--had a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012. A remarkable 25 states east of the Rockies had their warmest March on record, and an additional 15 states had a top-ten warmest March. Only four states were cooler than average, with Alaska being the coldest (tenth coldest March on record.)
Figure 1. Temperature rankings for March 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Twenty five states set records for warmest March in the 118-year records (red colors.) Image credit: NOAA.
March 2012: most daily records broken of any month since July 1936
A wunderground analysis of weather records from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center temperature record database reveals that more daily high temperature records were broken in March in 2012 than for any month except July 1936, going back at least 100 years. Fully 11.3% of all daily high temperature records for the month of March in the U.S. are now held by the year 2012, for the 550 stations in NOAA's National Climatic Data Center database that have weather records extending back at least 100 years. The only month in U.S. history holding a higher percentage of daily temperatures records is July 1936. That month holds 14.4% of all the U.S. high temperature records for the month of July. That month occurred in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history.
Summer in March 2012: records not merely smashed, but obliterated
Among the 15,000 daily records for warmth set in March 2012 were 21 truly astonishing ones: cases where the low temperature for the day beat the previous high temperature for the day. It is quite rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and NOAA lists 44 cases where a daily record was broken by more than 22°F. Extraordinarily, four stations broke a record for the date by 30°F or more. Canada holds the most surreal record of this nature during the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave: Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F) on March 22, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33.5°F.) Canada also had several stations break their all-time warmest April temperature records in March.
Last 3 months and 12 months were the warmest on record
The previous 12-month period (April 2011 -March 2012), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The year-to-date period (January - March) was also the warmest on record. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index, an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 39 percent, nearly twice the long-term average and the highest value on record for the January - March period. The predominant factor was the large area experiencing extremes in warm daily maximum and minimum temperatures.
Analyzing the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave
Dr. Martin Hoerling of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder has posted a thorough analysis of the heat wave, which he calls, "Meteorological March Madness 2012". He explains that the event was probably a natural phenomenon, one that was predicted more than a month in advance by NOAA's long-range CFS model. A similar, though not as intense heat wave occurred in March 1910. However, he notes that the approximate 0.5 - 1°C warming in the Ohio Valley/Midwest U.S. in recent decades--due to human-caused emission of heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide--has significantly increased the odds of major heat waves occurring. He speculates that the odds of a 1-in-40 year heat wave in the Midwest may have increased by about 50% due to human-caused global warming, but that we really don't know how much global warming may have increased the odds of the March 2012 heat wave, saying "This issue of estimating reliable statistics of extreme, rare events continues to be a matter of active research." He estimates that human-caused global warming likely increased the intensity of the March 12 - 23, 2012 heat wave by about 5 - 10%, and concludes by saying, "The probability of heatwaves is growing as [human-caused] warming continues to progress. But there is always the randomness."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index
It certainly was warm
Unreal...
We've known for decades that all supercell thunderstorms have a gust front, which is the boundary between the moist, warm air that is flowing into the storm and the generally cooler air coming down out of the storm. But what we noticed in several cases recently is that thunderstorms that are making, or are about to make, tornadoes, have a secondary front, which is like a second wave of air rushing down from aloft. A strong downdraft has an important function: It brings the rotation to the ground. But for a tornado to form, you still need to tilt the rotation into the vertical, and this requires a nearby updraft. The intensity of the downdrafts and updrafts is vital, because in the end there needs to be a lot of stretching, which is when you take that existing rotation and turn it into something really violent like a tornado. It's like a figure skater pulling in her arms and spinning faster and faster.
In the Goshen County tornado, we have a strong suspicion that the development of this secondary surge or front sparked the genesis of the tornado. We need to test this. If, after looking at more cases, we can demonstrate a causal link, then perhaps in the future a forecaster observing the development of a secondary surge will have an increased ability to forecast
The data analysis emerging from VORTEX2 also identifies another possible trigger, a "descending reflectivity core." What is that, and how does it work?
Some supercell thunderstorms have a descending core of intense rain and hail wrapping around the west side of the storm. That's what we call a descending reflectivity core, or DRC. This DRC drags rotating air downward from maybe four or five kilometers up and might cool the air in various places. As you drag the air downward, you create rotation and antirotation in different parts of the storm, and that seems to occur around the time of tornadogenesis. Right now these two features, the DRC and the secondary surge, hold the most hope for explaining why some supercells are able to generate rotation near the ground and why the low-level rotation is turning into a tornado when it does.
http://discovermagazine.com/2012/extreme-earth/19 -storm-chaser-looks-tornados-heart
Who cares, it only goes back to 1895.
This could be a bad situation, because a lot of trees have buds and small leaves which could be weighed down by a heavy, wet snowfall.
only 117 years. Thats all.
We've got the same over in Europe. Low or no snowfall in a lot of areas, very low rainfall and now high winds. Last week the gales blew the vanes of one of our windmills, probably over 100 mph, we have had lots of forest fires allready and the water content of the ground is very low.Rivers are dry in many places from England to Gibraltar.
Rains last week brought out a few spring flowers from the bare ground but they are about 10% of there normal height. Its strange to see Michaelmas daisies that are normally 3 foot high or more, only 2 inches high with flowers on them the size of normal daisies and poppies flowers the size of buttercups.
Wind is going to be the big enermy this year and with everything as dry as a bone and standing dead from last year I would say bush fires will abound from May onwards.
Thus years louisiana strawberrys are possible the best I've ever had....
you're right.
we need at least a million years of data because as we've seen over the last 50 years the temperatures vary so much (< irony), sometimes by hundreds of degrees, and the rain also varies by hundreds of inches, it's difficult to extrapolate any reliable data.
Is there a shelf life for this kind of denial, because I've seen it for 10+ years and it's quite stale.
That's exactly right - 117 years, thats all.
Link
It's unrealistic to hope, but it would be great if the climatista prophets could put together a projected agricultural program that would tell me when (I live in Montana in what had been a zone threeish area) to plant cherry trees ... when to plant peach trees, and when to discard the cherries for citrus, and the peaches for Suriname cherries and 'strawberry trees'. A *BIG* question in general is which and how quickly can cultivars of what can be developed that will adequately follow the warming trends north...? (And how to do it getting around the big seed mafiosos)
By your reasoning we can therefore burn fossil fuels for another 50 million years because that is still nothing compared to the age of the earth?
Fossil fuels are going to be be burned until they are gone - who is going to stop it?
heh heh...
Excerpt:
The increased observations have spawned new questions regarding cyclone classification. The first concerns the strength, organization, and longevity of the associated convection – how much and how long is enough to consider a system a TC or STC? Second, how can horizontal length scales, particularly the radius of maximum wind (RMW), help differentiate cyclone types? Third, concerning cyclone thermal structure, how much/deep of a warm core is required for an STC or TC, and how much low-level baroclinicity is required to call a cyclone frontal? Finally, how well defined does a cyclonic circulation have to be before it is considered a cyclone? These issues have caused sharp arguments among National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasters in both real-time and post-event analysis. This suggests there is need for additional understanding of cyclone processes and new diagnostic tools to aid cyclone classification.
See, it's not just this blog that has "sharp arguments" on classification. :)
Until there is no more or you can no longer make money off of them, they will stil be used unless you no a way to make more money.... That's what drives this world, a fragile economic system based on trust.
You honestly believe that? Based on what?
You might want to read up on solar and wind energy... might just change your mind.
The world constantly changes and evolves, it won't always be like this.
As long as there are big oil companies and there is a Middle East, someone is going to buy it, because there will always be someone that will use it.
You honestly believe that? Based on what?
try the PSU E-Wall..it goes to 240 hours
Thank you N.C Storm.
Can you make money on it? Yes.
Therefore it will be done
The weather pattern so far this year has me a little worried about the hurricane season. Thankfully, we shouldn't have as many storms thanks to El Nino. However, the ones that do develop could be a problem. The map of the Euro that I posted below has been a common setup this year. If the past several seasons are any indication, the patterns we deal with in Spring like to stick around for a while into hurricane season (they are difficult to break). We have seen this persistent high pressure in the Western Atlantic, which is leaving the door wide open to the Gulf of Mexico. There has also been a persistent break in the ridging in the middle of the Atlantic, however, with storms not developing until closer to home this year it might not matter as they could slip right under the break into the Caribbean. This is obviously just speculation at this point, but just an observation that I've made early on...
Yes but there is limited supply of oil on the earth and therefore the price will always go up due to simple economic reasons. Solar energy is virtually abundant and harnessing it's power is going to cost less and less thanks to better technologies. If you make the connections, solar energy will one day be so cheap that no one will even think about buying a drop of oil.
MId TN is enjoying seasonal temps today with expected frost in the AM.. I am so glad I did not put in the garden yet! The only thing that has been planted in this household are Otter Pops in the freezer.. Looks like the blog outlook for today is AGCC bickering, so I'll check back later.
Based on we didn't have electricity 150 years ago? Based on cars were invented at the start of the 20th century? Based on the fact that the earth was thought to be flat about 600 years ago? Based on the discovery of North America? Based on the invention of the computer and the internet?
You think the world hasn't changed at all?
This article may change your mind about cars at least.
Link
That is a lie that ur second grade teacher told you, they never thought the world was flat, the Greeks calculated the circumference of the earth to a couple of miles using a lunar eclipse, they simply thought the world was smaller.
--A top-ten warmest March for ten others;
--The fourth warmest winter in US history;
--The warmest January to March period in US history;
--The warmest 12-month period in US history;
All those following, of course:
--The second hottest summer in US history;
--The hottest summer ever for several states;
--The single hottest month for any US state ever
...yet the best someone can do is claim, "Well, the record is only 117 years long!" That may be true. But it requires a remarkably thick set of blinders to not notice that the preponderance of heat records are jammed against the more recent side of the timeline--and an even thicker set to not notice that cold records are becoming increasingly rare.
Year to date, warm records are outnumbering cold records 24,019 to 1,950. (Since the beginning of last year, that ratio is 80,341 to 27,308.)
Yikes.
Uh, this is one record we are quite willing to see remain intact for many years to come....
I Really, Really want to belive you on this one but I don't!
Reason:- The world has become addicted to energy, any kind of energy will do, it doesn't matter that's its cheap or expensive so long as its energy.
Solar might be becoming cheaper and wind will come along as well but the fact is that they have to be installed and that costs the money.
I use both solar and wind energy and my warehouse is self sufficient in power from solar.
The problem is that if you look at the facts people must want 1000 HP cars with up to 8.3 liter engines, they also want to fly off on holiday on planes and nobody's got a solar powered one of them on the drawing boards!
You can maybe convert 10-20% of the population but the other 80% will keep on expanding and using any energy they can get their hands on.
Alternatives are a good idea but you also need "alternative people," to make them work!
Now they won't.
Want to know why?
Because everyone will die from the warming and other side effects before humans actually finish burning them.
Viewing: 1 - 51
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 — Blog Index