Damaging freeze hits the Midwest U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:46 GMT le 12 avril 2012

Share this Blog
35
+

Large portions of the Midwest U.S. shivered through a hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) this morning, and freezing temperatures extended as far south as Tennessee and North Carolina. Though the cold temperatures were not unusual for this time of year, they likely caused widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last month's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries worked during the night and early morning to minimize the damage by running large fans and propane heaters in their orchards, and some even rented helicopters in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. Temperatures of approximately 28°F will kill about 10% of fruit tree buds and flowers, while temperatures of 25°F will produce a 90% kill rate. Temperatures of 25° were common over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota this morning, and I expect that this morning's freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry. There have been numerous freezes and frosts over the Midwest's fruit growing regions since late March, and orchards are definitely taking a major beating from the weather. It will be several weeks before the extent of the damage is known, but I think that so far it is unlikely that the industry has suffered a billion-dollar disaster, such as occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops.


Figure 1. Temperatures this morning dipped below freezing across most the northeast quarter of the country, extending into Tennessee and North Carolina. Image taken from our wundermap with the new "go back in time" feature turned on.

History of billion-dollar U.S. freezes
Freezes can cause big damage to agriculture. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, there have been six billion-dollar U.S. freezes since 1980, accounting for 5% of all billion-dollar weather-related disasters. Five of these freezes affected California or Florida; one hit the Midwest. Ranked by damages (in 2011 dollars), here are the six billion-dollar U.S. freeze events since 1980:

1) California Freeze of December 1990. Severe freeze in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley caused the loss of citrus, avocado trees, and other crops in many areas. Several days of subfreezing temperatures occurred, with some valley locations in the teens. $5.9 billion in direct and indirect economic losses, including damage to public buildings, utilities, crops, and residences.

2) Florida Freeze of December 1983. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $4.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

3) California Freeze of December 1998. A severe freeze damaged fruit and vegetable crops in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley. Extended intervals of sub 27° F temperatures occurred over an 8-day period; $3.5 billion estimated damages/costs.

4) Florida Freeze of January 1985. Severe freeze in central/northern Florida; about $2.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

5) East/Midwest freeze of April 2007. Widespread severe freeze over much of the East and Midwest (AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, SC, TN, VA, WV), causing significant losses in fruit crops, field crops (especially wheat), and the ornamental industry. Temperatures in the teens/20's accompanied by rather high winds nullified typical crop-protection systems. Over $2.2 billion in damage/costs.

6) California Freeze of January 2007. For nearly two weeks in January, overnight temperatures over a good portion of California dipped into the 20's, destroying numerous agricultural crops, with citrus, berry, and vegetable crops most affected. $1.5 billion estimated in damage/costs; 1 fatality reported.

Record warmth in the Western U.S.
As is often the case when one part of the country is experiencing much cooler than average temperatures, the other half is seeing record warmth, due to a large bend in the jet stream that allows warm air to flow northwards. Much of Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado experienced record warm temperatures yesterday. Most notably, Jackson, Wyoming hit 72°F, the earliest 70° reading in their history, and 27° above their normal high of 45°.


Figure 2. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Tornado outbreak possible Saturday in Kansas and Oklahoma
A significant tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. A warm, unstable airmass will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, and strong jet stream winds will create plenty of wind shear. There is the potential for long-track strong tornadoes over Oklahoma and Kansas on Saturday, and SPC has has issued their second highest level of alert, a "Moderate Risk," for the region.

First named storm in the Atlantic possible next week
Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that an extratropical "cut-off" low will separate from the jet stream early next week several hundred miles east of Bermuda, and linger for several days over subtropical waters with temperatures in the 22 - 24°C range. These ocean temperatures may be warm enough to allow the storm to organize into a named subtropical storm. However, climatology argues against such an occurrence; there has been only one named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851. If a subtropical storm does form next week, it would probably not affect any land areas.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 372 - 322

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Quoting Grothar:


OMG Alaska!

977mb low!

What a beast!
Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
FAAIIIILLLLL!
HAAAAA-HAAAAAA-HAAAAAAA

All their hype for nothing.

Or maybe the CIA sabotaged it...


You realize we could easily shoot that down with a COIL laser from our anti-nuke aircrafts right?

And they'd never know the difference...


We probably even have some of them in space right now, even though we're not supposed to according to international treaty.


Then again, the treaty may only apply to nukes, so maybe lasers are allowed...
Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
First tornado warning! On the cell I predicted an hour ago 2!
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
First tornado warning

999
WFUS53 KGLD 122330
TORGLD
NEC087-130015-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0003.120412T2330Z-120413T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
630 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 627 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STRATTON NE...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TRENTON AND PALISADE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 47 AND 72.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4033 10079 4001 10110 4011 10129 4036 10111
4035 10085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 213DEG 22KT 4014 10113
HAIL 1.75IN
$$
Member Since: 9 août 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5074
Quoting Grothar:
You have to hit the Control + buttons to see the pressure on this.




that didnt help anyway...
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I would give it a 40% chance of occurring. It has superb model support for this early in the year, and they all develop it within 5 days.


WOW, well, maybe it won't hit any land and that would be a good thing!! :)~
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
typing tooo fast back to the comp the phone sucks
Ya need an iPad ! I'm typing this from mine, blogging on here, radar loops , etc. while sitting in the living room( since we have a LAN here at the house).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Joanie38:
Hello everyone...wow been awhile..last time I was here was last hurricane season...

Anyway, after reading Dr. Masters post, I had to read his post again about a possible subtropical storm next week...really??? I kinda doubt it will happen but if it does it won't hit any land areas per Dr. Masters which is a good thing....any thoughts on this??

TIA,
Joanie

I would give it a 40% chance of occurring. It has superb model support for this early in the year, and they all develop it within 5 days.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
FAAIIIILLLLL!
HAAAAA-HAAAAAA-HAAAAAAA

All their hype for nothing.

Or maybe the CIA sabotaged it...
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You'd be surprised how much they lean on one model sometimes...The GFS is almost just as extreme as well.


The 18Z run, that does not have upper air obs...... wait for the 00Z.
Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11271
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You'd be surprised how much they lean on one model sometimes...The GFS is almost just as extreme as well.

i know the gfs has added aout 20kts
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
CNN reporting the ICBM (my term) failed shortly after launch.
HAHAHAHAHA
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
321 barbamz: Hi, all abroad. Sad news from the sky today:
Envisat, biggest Earth-monitoring satellite, goes silent

[and a]...more...[detailed account from Phys.Org]

Better to use the Link button. The blog program automaticly breaks addresses with an overly long string of letters&numbers&symbols into separate pieces that won't take folks where you want to send them.

"Designed to operate for only five years, Envisat was launched in March 2002..."
and it is now 10years later, ie 5years after a replacement should have ready to send up. But...
"Its study of ocean currents was used last year to simulate dispersal of nuclear pollution from the Fukushima accident, and it gained real-time images of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.
It has also been an important tool in tackling illegal fishing."
...ought to give hint as to the array of forces that have been and are pressuring the politicians to prevent timely funding of the replacement of (environmental monitoring) weather satellites...
(eg SeaSCAT, anyone?)
So now we hafta wait until more than 6years after the operational-design lifetime has expired before Envirosat's replacement Sentinal might be ready for launch...
...and hafta wonder whether the plus$100million launch costs will be funded by those very same politicians who have caused this problem in the first place...
...and hafta wonder if&when the 2nd Sentinal will be ready if the 1st doesn't make orbit.

Same with 254 WxGeekVA's link to why The U.S. Has Fallen Behind in Numerical Weather Prediction.
In order to model weather, ya hafta lay the weather data&algorithms on top of a climate model. ie Ya hafta do climate modeling to do weather modeling.
And guess who doesn't want any Climate modeling done?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CNN reporting the ICBM (my term) failed shortly after launch.
Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11271
Quoting Gearsts:


The only interesting storm of 2009,

That and Ida.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24471
Quoting Gearsts:
Igor?
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Hello everyone...wow been awhile..last time I was here was last hurricane season...

Anyway, after reading Dr. Masters post, I had to read his post again about a possible subtropical storm next week...really??? I kinda doubt it will happen but if it does it won't hit any land areas per Dr. Masters which is a good thing....any thoughts on this??

TIA,
Joanie
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


They won't base too much off the NAM though... I think it's pretty unlikely we see a high risk on day 2 for Saturday.
I still give it a 70% chance of being a high risk at some point. 20% by Friday.
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Did it actually launch or are they just saying that?


I believe they launched it. There are reports that it failed, but if it would land on an inhabited area, that would not be good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


They won't base too much off the NAM though... I think it's pretty unlikely we see a high risk on day 2 for Saturday.

You'd be surprised how much they lean on one model sometimes...The GFS is almost just as extreme as well.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There are very few times I say this...but if the 18Z NAM holds through tonight and into tomorrow morning...the SPC may issue a extremely rare Day 2 High risk.


They won't base too much off the NAM though... I think it's pretty unlikely we see a high risk on day 2 for Saturday.
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7941
You have to hit the Control + buttons to see the pressure on this.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There are very few times I say this...

If the next few model runs show a setup like the 06Z and 18Z NAM did, an extremely rare Day 2 High risk will be required tomorrow for the day Saturday.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
346. skook
Quoting Jax82:
MODIS image today, the winds have shifted the smoke to the southwest. Its nice to get a break, anyone on the gulf side gets it today.




No lie, going to work this morning was a little difficult. I actually had a little bit of trouble breathing, i couldn't not imagine those who suffer from respiratory illness, and how they felt today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Did it actually launch or are they just saying that?


cnn says us confirms it.
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting Grothar:
North Korea just launched an long distance rocket. Wonder who backed them up on this? Not good news

Did it actually launch or are they just saying that?
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7941
North Korea just launched an long distance rocket. Wonder who backed them up on this? Not good news
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BleachwaterFox:
Greetings from Lawrence, KS. First post, long time lurker, etc, etc.

So this is shaping up to be a promising weather event. On one hand, I'm really glad I'm working this weekend. On the other, it's making me quite nearly physically itch to miss this. As a semi-recent transplant from Joplin, MO (moved up here in '07) I'm keeping my fingers crossed that both of my hometowns don't get tragically whomped within close to a year of each other. Would not be enjoyable in the least, to put it lightly.

Question - why does no one seem to be paying any attention to Sunday? I get that tomorrow night and Saturday have the potential to utterly explode, but unless I'm misreading something it seems Sunday has just as much. Can someone point me in the right direction on that?

Thanks for the great work everybody; I've spent many a restless day/evening/night/whoa-is-it-mornings on here and look forward to many more.
Greetings from the Heart of Oklahoma. One thing to bear in mind, especially when you look at the Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks, is the "Saturday" forecast period goes overnight to 7 a.m. Sunday. This week there is potential for storms after dark and overnight Saturday into Sunday. There is still risk on Sunday (7 am - 7am Monday) delineated by SPC.

Please click image for Day 4-8 SPC Convective Outlook

(Note: This is a hot link graphic and outlook will change about 3-4 am Friday Apr 13 when new day 4-8 issued.)

More info from official sources will be available when Sunday becomes day 3, as reflected in the day 3 outlook the SPC will put out during the overnight hours tonight.

Hope that isn't totally confusing.
:)
Member Since: 29 avril 2006 Posts: 156 Comments: 18941
Something tells me that this hurricane season will crank up a bit more in activity than what many believe it will do. I don't see total named storms ONLY reaching 10, 12 to 16 would be a fair bet IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If a large tornado were to hit any of the major cities out there and hurt a lot of people, this outbreak could be remembered by today, rather than Saturday. That would be interesting.
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
if we will recall this has happened in the past


activity in the 2005 season

Source Date Tropicalstorms Hurricanes Major
hurricanes

CSU December 3, 2004 11 6 3
CSU April 1, 2005 13 7 3
NOAA May 16, 2005 12–15 7–9 3–5
CSU May 31, 2005 15 8 4
NOAA August 2, 2005 18–21 9–11 5–7
CSU August 5, 2005 20 10 6
Actual activity 28 15 7
Member Since: Posts: Comments:






Apr 12, 2012




Severe Weather Potential Building Through the Plains




A trough of low pressure between two high pressure systems is driving two different air masses together, causing them to meet over the Central Plains. Dry air from over the Mojave Dessert meets with moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Where they meet creates ideal conditions for convective thunderstorm activity. This image, using NOAA’s North America Model data output averaged from April 12-16, 2012, shows in shades of pink the areas with the highest convective available potential energy, an indicator of instability in the atmosphere or, in other words, areas in the atmosphere where the conditions are most favorable for the formation of severe storms.
Overlaid are the average wind directions for the same time period. The streamlines coming out of the central high pressure off of North Carolina can be seen sweeping into the Gulf of Mexico, picking up the highly energetic, moist air, and moving northward into the Plains. As the air moves north, is met on the west side of the front by the dry air from the Rockies. This area of confluence is under watch by the Storm Prediction Center and NOAA Satellite Analysis Branch as areas where severe storms, hail, and tornadoes may possibly form over the next few days, with the highest potential occurring on April 14th.


Link
Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11271
pay attention to the weather, spending a whole day in a basement is ridiculous.
You could spend the night and sleep there, but the day is unnecesary.
You could at least stay up when the sun is shining...
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storms are beginning to fire and strengthen in eastern Kansas...in pretty decent coverage too. I would've went Moderate at 20Z.


That's because it was a 1-in-50 year event.

Welcome to the next 50 Years!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the clouds from the supercells are overshooting the stratus and leaving a shadow.
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Storms are beginning to fire and strengthen in eastern Kansas...in pretty decent coverage too. I would've went Moderate at 20Z.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I think Saturday will be bigger than March 2nd but smaller than last year's April 27

Probably closer to March 2nd though... Last year's outbreak is virtually untouchable

That's because it was a 1-in-50 year event.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, Saturday has the potential to be a tornado outbreak we've not seen since March 2, or even worse, last year. Typically, the major events get priority. But yes, Sunday also looks to be a major Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak, but not to the extent of Saturday.

Welcome to the blog!

I think Saturday will be bigger than March 2nd but smaller than last year's April 27

Probably closer to March 2nd though... Last year's outbreak is virtually untouchable
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7941
Quoting BleachwaterFox:
Greetings from Lawrence, KS. First post, long time lurker, etc, etc.

So this is shaping up to be a promising weather event. On one hand, I'm really glad I'm working this weekend. On the other, it's making me quite nearly physically itch to miss this. As a semi-recent transplant from Joplin, MO (moved up here in '07) I'm keeping my fingers crossed that both of my hometowns don't get tragically whomped within close to a year of each other. Would not be enjoyable in the least, to put it lightly.

Question - why does no one seem to be paying any attention to Sunday? I get that tomorrow night and Saturday have the potential to utterly explode, but unless I'm misreading something it seems Sunday has just as much. Can someone point me in the right direction on that?

Thanks for the great work everybody; I've spent many a restless day/evening/night/whoa-is-it-mornings on here and look forward to many more.

Well, Saturday has the potential to be a tornado outbreak we've not seen since March 2, or even worse, last year. Typically, the major events get priority. But yes, Sunday also looks to be a major Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak, but not to the extent of Saturday.

Welcome to the blog!
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Quoting ncstorm:
There are people reading this blog who might unfortunately take advice from people saying "Dont Spend Your Day/Night In the Basement"..I rather "overreact" and express the concern that they should especially if the SPC keeps uping the numbers for the weekend. I rather to look foolish in the basement than to look foolish in the car in a F3 tornado..might not be any coming back from that car ride

Nobody on the blog said to be oblivious to the weather on Saturday. We're just saying it's overreacting and extreme to say you need to spend your day/night in the basement. As long as you're aware of the weather around you, you'll be ok.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
329. txjac
Quoting BleachwaterFox:
Greetings from Lawrence, KS. First post, long time lurker, etc, etc.

So this is shaping up to be a promising weather event. On one hand, I'm really glad I'm working this weekend. On the other, it's making me quite nearly physically itch to miss this. As a semi-recent transplant from Joplin, MO (moved up here in '07) I'm keeping my fingers crossed that both of my hometowns don't get tragically whomped within close to a year of each other. Would not be enjoyable in the least, to put it lightly.

Question - why does no one seem to be paying any attention to Sunday? I get that tomorrow night and Saturday have the potential to utterly explode, but unless I'm misreading something it seems Sunday has just as much. Can someone point me in the right direction on that?

Thanks for the great work everybody; I've spent many a restless day/evening/night/whoa-is-it-mornings on here and look forward to many more.


Welcome bleachwater ...keep safe this weekend
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is a big hail producer...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
423 PM MDT THU APR 12 2012

NEC005-101-122245-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120412T2245Z/
KEITH NE-ARTHUR NE-
423 PM MDT THU APR 12 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ARTHUR AND NORTH CENTRAL KEITH COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

AT 418 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEMOYNE...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF OGALLALA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KEITH AND SOUTHEASTERN ARTHUR COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 10182 4159 10176 4151 10141 4117 10174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 232DEG 22KT 4128 10170
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.75IN

$$

MASEK
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7941
There are people reading this blog who might unfortunately take advice from people saying "Dont Spend Your Day/Night In the Basement"..I rather "overreact" and express the concern that they should especially if the SPC keeps uping the numbers for the weekend. I rather to look foolish in the basement than to look foolish in the car in a F3 tornado..might not be any coming back from that car ride
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
Our potential future invest has gotten quite a bit of convection going over the past 12 hours.

Still needs a lot of work to start looking remotely tropical though.

RGB Satellite


and

Shortwave Satellite


If you look closely,there is a little bit of inflow from the South going towards the mass of convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The radar I'm using has a tornado vortex signature on the storm near Ogallala Nebraska but the storm deosn't look that great so I'm wondering if the TVS is bogus...


I don't know...

VIL ~50

DBZ 66

2 inch max hail 100% severe 100% hail.


It's above 70 now, crossing the water north of Ogala.
Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
The NAM shows that storms could be quick moving as well. While I think it's a little extreme to spend the day and night in the basement, I would definitely be alert.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32524
Our potential future invest has gotten quite a bit of convection going over the past 12 hours.

Still needs a lot of work to start looking remotely tropical though.

RGB Satellite


and

Shortwave Satellite
Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
Greetings from Lawrence, KS. First post, long time lurker, etc, etc.

So this is shaping up to be a promising weather event. On one hand, I'm really glad I'm working this weekend. On the other, it's making me quite nearly physically itch to miss this. As a semi-recent transplant from Joplin, MO (moved up here in '07) I'm keeping my fingers crossed that both of my hometowns don't get tragically whomped within close to a year of each other. Would not be enjoyable in the least, to put it lightly.

Question - why does no one seem to be paying any attention to Sunday? I get that tomorrow night and Saturday have the potential to utterly explode, but unless I'm misreading something it seems Sunday has just as much. Can someone point me in the right direction on that?

Thanks for the great work everybody; I've spent many a restless day/evening/night/whoa-is-it-mornings on here and look forward to many more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 372 - 322

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Clear
32 ° F
Ciel dégagé