Damaging freeze hits the Midwest U.S.
Large portions of the Midwest U.S. shivered through a hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) this morning, and freezing temperatures extended as far south as Tennessee and North Carolina. Though the cold temperatures were not unusual for this time of year, they likely caused widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last month's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries worked during the night and early morning to minimize the damage by running large fans and propane heaters in their orchards, and some even rented helicopters in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. Temperatures of approximately 28°F will kill about 10% of fruit tree buds and flowers, while temperatures of 25°F will produce a 90% kill rate. Temperatures of 25° were common over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota this morning, and I expect that this morning's freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry. There have been numerous freezes and frosts over the Midwest's fruit growing regions since late March, and orchards are definitely taking a major beating from the weather. It will be several weeks before the extent of the damage is known, but I think that so far it is unlikely that the industry has suffered a billion-dollar disaster, such as occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops.
Figure 1. Temperatures this morning dipped below freezing across most the northeast quarter of the country, extending into Tennessee and North Carolina. Image taken from our wundermap with the new "go back in time" feature turned on.
History of billion-dollar U.S. freezes
Freezes can cause big damage to agriculture. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, there have been six billion-dollar U.S. freezes since 1980, accounting for 5% of all billion-dollar weather-related disasters. Five of these freezes affected California or Florida; one hit the Midwest. Ranked by damages (in 2011 dollars), here are the six billion-dollar U.S. freeze events since 1980:
1) California Freeze of December 1990. Severe freeze in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley caused the loss of citrus, avocado trees, and other crops in many areas. Several days of subfreezing temperatures occurred, with some valley locations in the teens. $5.9 billion in direct and indirect economic losses, including damage to public buildings, utilities, crops, and residences.
2) Florida Freeze of December 1983. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $4.5 billion damage to citrus industry.
3) California Freeze of December 1998. A severe freeze damaged fruit and vegetable crops in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley. Extended intervals of sub 27° F temperatures occurred over an 8-day period; $3.5 billion estimated damages/costs.
4) Florida Freeze of January 1985. Severe freeze in central/northern Florida; about $2.5 billion damage to citrus industry.
5) East/Midwest freeze of April 2007. Widespread severe freeze over much of the East and Midwest (AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, SC, TN, VA, WV), causing significant losses in fruit crops, field crops (especially wheat), and the ornamental industry. Temperatures in the teens/20's accompanied by rather high winds nullified typical crop-protection systems. Over $2.2 billion in damage/costs.
6) California Freeze of January 2007. For nearly two weeks in January, overnight temperatures over a good portion of California dipped into the 20's, destroying numerous agricultural crops, with citrus, berry, and vegetable crops most affected. $1.5 billion estimated in damage/costs; 1 fatality reported.
Record warmth in the Western U.S.
As is often the case when one part of the country is experiencing much cooler than average temperatures, the other half is seeing record warmth, due to a large bend in the jet stream that allows warm air to flow northwards. Much of Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado experienced record warm temperatures yesterday. Most notably, Jackson, Wyoming hit 72°F, the earliest 70° reading in their history, and 27° above their normal high of 45°.
Figure 2. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.
Tornado outbreak possible Saturday in Kansas and Oklahoma
A significant tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. A warm, unstable airmass will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, and strong jet stream winds will create plenty of wind shear. There is the potential for long-track strong tornadoes over Oklahoma and Kansas on Saturday, and SPC has has issued their second highest level of alert, a "Moderate Risk," for the region.
First named storm in the Atlantic possible next week
Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that an extratropical "cut-off" low will separate from the jet stream early next week several hundred miles east of Bermuda, and linger for several days over subtropical waters with temperatures in the 22 - 24°C range. These ocean temperatures may be warm enough to allow the storm to organize into a named subtropical storm. However, climatology argues against such an occurrence; there has been only one named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851. If a subtropical storm does form next week, it would probably not affect any land areas.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
231 PM MDT THU APR 12 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...
* UNTIL 330 PM MDT
* AT 230 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FLEMING...OR 14 MILES EAST
OF STERLING...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FLEMING...PROCTOR...CROOK...TWIN BUTTES AND DAILEY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
&&
LAT...LON 4093 10265 4055 10269 4061 10310 4101 10294
4101 10266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 225DEG 20KT 4062 10293
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN
$$
The storm is in place, already, its just gottamove and go
6-10 days
8-14 days
Should be fixed...
Link
Second time in 2 days that's happened...
Interesting to say the least. I'd say there is a 40% chance of this occurring.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 122034Z - 122200Z
SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM NWRN TX THROUGH WRN OK DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED IN MOIST AXIS EAST OF THE DRYLINE
FROM WRN TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK WITH MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG AND 7.5 C/KM
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS ALSO INDICATED FROM
N-CNTRL NWWD THROUGH NWRN TX ALONG THE OK/TX BORDER. NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE WINDS ARE BACKED ESELY RESULTING IN 200-250 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER MIXING ACROSS NWRN TX WHERE A FIELD OF
CUMULUS AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY FORM WHERE THIS ZONE INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY FROM NWRN TX
INTO SWRN OK. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 40-45 KT FAVORS
SUPERCELLS...AND 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING.
..DIAL.. 04/12/2012
Still very limited coverage right now... We really only have one storm, the one in NE Colorado
Coverage will probably stay limited regardless...that is the reason the SPC never issued a Moderate risk.
Has anyone told you these maps are useless?
Not too mention the fact its been the strongest with the system ever since it began forecasting it.
Models seem to agree with the CPC so I think your assement may be off.
Isolated severe wx today is the key. Widespread severe wx on Saturday as the trough comes out.
Just because only one is Severe Warned doesn't mean there isn't more to come! Be patient... I see at least a dozen storms on the radar right now that have potential to rapidly become contenders. They are starting to pop both along the dryline, and the warm front.
Oh definitely... We will certainly have more than one major storm, that's just the only one we have now.
Ya you know
Fly Over States...
If you listen to country music you would understand that...
Isolated thunderstorms more than anything
850 mb vorticity
Hi there Alberto come on out and play...
I think we may see the first epac storm in week three. The season is right there!!
Day 3 (saturday)
Uh oh.
shows a little bit of a line in nebraska, and only about 2 discrete storms in w kansas
Saturday April 14
IA northwest - 4
IA southwest - 4 to 5
IA rest - 3 to 4
IL northwest - 3
KS south-central - 7
KS rest of central, east - 5 to 6
MN southwest - 4
MN southeast - 3
MO north - 4
NE southeast - 5
NE northeast - 4 to 5
OK northwest, north-central - 7
OK southwest - 5
SD southeast - 4
TX east panhandle - 5
WI southwest -3
Other areas - less than 2
Previous torcon for Saturday issued this morning
Saturday April 14
OK northwest - 7
KS south-central - 7
KS north-central - 5
NE southeast - 5
IA northwest - 4
MN southwest - 4
Only the GEFS is showing a strong signal
Models do pretty well in the one week timeframe
Not so well out two weeks
Given that there's already an area of disturbed wx off to our east from the last trough that went through, I can see tomorrow Sat and Sunday being possibly of interest for tropical development. Hopefully we won't get this non-tropical cold front back in a few days as a warm front. lol....
Oops... forgot my brackets...
Is that a joke?? While the NAM is the master of overdoing things, even if it ended up a little lower than that we would still be looking at a huge outbreak
Why S TX and Mexico showing up in there
WV from my area... definitely dry behind the front, but I'm wondering how far this will actually dip... enough to impact the earlier area and give it a jump-start?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
347 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012
...NWS AMARILLO CONDUCTS STORM SURVEY FOR HAIL AND FLOOD ON U.S.
HIGHWAY 287 NORTH OF AMARILLO...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY IN NORTHERN
POTTER COUNTY ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 287 TODAY.
A SEVERE AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHERN POTTER COUNTY
ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF MASTERSON BROUGHT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS U.S. HIGHWAY 287 IN NORTHERN POTTER
COUNTY.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT 5 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A VERY SMALL AREA IN NORTHERN POTTER COUNTY
ABOUT 26 MILES NORTH OF AMARILLO. MOST OF THIS RAIN FELL IN ONE TO
TWO HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ON APRIL 11TH. HAIL...UP TO THE
SIZE OF GOLFBALLS FELL WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. THE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY
RAIN PUSHED THE HAIL INTO 3 TO 4 FOOT DRIFTS ACROSS U.S. HIGHWAY 287.
U.S. HIGHWAY 287 WAS CLOSED FOR OVER 12 HOURS DUE TO WATER FLOODING
THE ROADWAY AND THE HAIL DRIFTS.
THE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN ALSO CAUSED A NORMALLY DRY CREEK TO
RISE ABOUT 15 FEET ABOUT 23 MILES NORTH OF AMARILLO. THE CREEK WAS
REPORTED TO HAVE RISEN TO THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE HIGHWAY 287 BRIDGE.
THE SURVEY OF THESE SITES ON THE 12TH OF APRIL REVEALED HAIL STILL
PILED ABOUT 3 FEET DEEP IN PLACES IN THE DITCH. AT THE BRIDGE...THERE
WAS SEVERE EROSION OF THE EMBANKMENT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE BRIDGE.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE AMARILLO OFFICE
OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE WITH THIS SURVEY.
$$
GOEHRING
Whats wrong with -10 Celsius?
No.
The Euro has taken it below 990mb for like 3 consecutive days now.
Even the latest run of the Euro takes the outbreak low below 990mb.
This is in about the same intensity range as last year's bad tornado outbreak.
It has consistently forecast this, give or take, for several days now.
One of the more recent model runs missed it.
But 12 hours ago, the model runs were forecasting a weak surface low over the Bay of Campeche about the same time as all this is going on.
Apparently, the new runs have moved that a bit back to the west.
This could potentially pump more energy north into the big system over the plains.
This is not unlike last year's scenario at all, except the Mexican low is going to be a bit farther south and east, I think. Last year during the outbreak, the Mexican low was up closer to the Texas border.
And note that the western and north-western Gulf is probably warmer right now than it was on the 27th last year.
If a nice flow develops like last year, it's going to be massive energy available.
Eeeeekkkkkk..
TX may get rocked more than what is being shown then
Lol that's about right
My thoughts precisely
That means we're about to have a major tornado outbreak that could rival that of March 2.
Yea how do we know that haha, I mean I could look at a pretty picture with a bunch of colors and lines and be like craps about to happen... NO DUH lol
How do u read it
It's complicated to explain. Just think of it like this: the more negative the number, the worse the severe threat typically is.
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