Damaging freeze hits the Midwest U.S.
Large portions of the Midwest U.S. shivered through a hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) this morning, and freezing temperatures extended as far south as Tennessee and North Carolina. Though the cold temperatures were not unusual for this time of year, they likely caused widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last month's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries worked during the night and early morning to minimize the damage by running large fans and propane heaters in their orchards, and some even rented helicopters in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. Temperatures of approximately 28°F will kill about 10% of fruit tree buds and flowers, while temperatures of 25°F will produce a 90% kill rate. Temperatures of 25° were common over Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota this morning, and I expect that this morning's freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry. There have been numerous freezes and frosts over the Midwest's fruit growing regions since late March, and orchards are definitely taking a major beating from the weather. It will be several weeks before the extent of the damage is known, but I think that so far it is unlikely that the industry has suffered a billion-dollar disaster, such as occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops.
Figure 1. Temperatures this morning dipped below freezing across most the northeast quarter of the country, extending into Tennessee and North Carolina. Image taken from our wundermap with the new "go back in time" feature turned on.
History of billion-dollar U.S. freezes
Freezes can cause big damage to agriculture. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, there have been six billion-dollar U.S. freezes since 1980, accounting for 5% of all billion-dollar weather-related disasters. Five of these freezes affected California or Florida; one hit the Midwest. Ranked by damages (in 2011 dollars), here are the six billion-dollar U.S. freeze events since 1980:
1) California Freeze of December 1990. Severe freeze in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley caused the loss of citrus, avocado trees, and other crops in many areas. Several days of subfreezing temperatures occurred, with some valley locations in the teens. $5.9 billion in direct and indirect economic losses, including damage to public buildings, utilities, crops, and residences.
2) Florida Freeze of December 1983. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $4.5 billion damage to citrus industry.
3) California Freeze of December 1998. A severe freeze damaged fruit and vegetable crops in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley. Extended intervals of sub 27° F temperatures occurred over an 8-day period; $3.5 billion estimated damages/costs.
4) Florida Freeze of January 1985. Severe freeze in central/northern Florida; about $2.5 billion damage to citrus industry.
5) East/Midwest freeze of April 2007. Widespread severe freeze over much of the East and Midwest (AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, SC, TN, VA, WV), causing significant losses in fruit crops, field crops (especially wheat), and the ornamental industry. Temperatures in the teens/20's accompanied by rather high winds nullified typical crop-protection systems. Over $2.2 billion in damage/costs.
6) California Freeze of January 2007. For nearly two weeks in January, overnight temperatures over a good portion of California dipped into the 20's, destroying numerous agricultural crops, with citrus, berry, and vegetable crops most affected. $1.5 billion estimated in damage/costs; 1 fatality reported.
Record warmth in the Western U.S.
As is often the case when one part of the country is experiencing much cooler than average temperatures, the other half is seeing record warmth, due to a large bend in the jet stream that allows warm air to flow northwards. Much of Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, and Colorado experienced record warm temperatures yesterday. Most notably, Jackson, Wyoming hit 72°F, the earliest 70° reading in their history, and 27° above their normal high of 45°.
Figure 2. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.
Tornado outbreak possible Saturday in Kansas and Oklahoma
A significant tornado outbreak is possible on Saturday, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. A warm, unstable airmass will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, and strong jet stream winds will create plenty of wind shear. There is the potential for long-track strong tornadoes over Oklahoma and Kansas on Saturday, and SPC has has issued their second highest level of alert, a "Moderate Risk," for the region.
First named storm in the Atlantic possible next week
Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that an extratropical "cut-off" low will separate from the jet stream early next week several hundred miles east of Bermuda, and linger for several days over subtropical waters with temperatures in the 22 - 24°C range. These ocean temperatures may be warm enough to allow the storm to organize into a named subtropical storm. However, climatology argues against such an occurrence; there has been only one named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851. If a subtropical storm does form next week, it would probably not affect any land areas.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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"Nice article. Note that although ECMWF doesn't have the same operational requirements as the other centres, Met Office, JMA and Meteo-France do have roughly the same time constraints as US operational centres, and are all doing very well in comparison. Of course the rankings change whenever a centre gets a new supercomputer or has a major change to its algorithms -- this was seen with the introduction of 4D-Var and then Hybrid-Var at various operational centres."
OK, thanks much
yeah.
WE definitely need to come up with some sort of turbine system to harness that Gulf Stream some.
Could probably get half a Terrawatt or more out of that without even making a noticeable difference in currents.
Water is about 1000 times more energy dense than air at the same velocity, so a few meters per second is all you'd need at a high gear ratio.
Man...if only...
The last time the SOI was that negative was back in early 2010
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
751 PM CDT THU APR 12 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT
* AT 745 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO
3 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRENTON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO HEN EGG SIZE.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN HITCHCOCK COUNTY.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 61 AND 74.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 4032 10076 4015 10095 4026 10114 4035 10105
4035 10076
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 217DEG 21KT 4028 10097
HAIL 2.00IN
$$
Congratulations on winning the First Test in Barbados.
Good Game....
For me, there was Elation, Optimism, Doubt, Despair, and General Excitement.
Test Cricket as it should be.
Just had another nice shower here.
Put me in a mood for Sleep......
According to the latest outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center, Tulsa will be in the clear Sunday and Dallas will get the action.
So no, you probably just put yourself in the middle of it. :P
Whats up potttery? The West Indies played badly in thier second innings...which eventually lead to them losing
Well crap!
Link
How is he in his 30s? He looks 16.
Definitely end some too
Yeah,looks very young there.
Thanks for the link topicsweatherpr
Link
He makes a point that the MDR has warmed in the past couple of weeks and if that trend continues,they may have to up the numbers when they release the next forecast on June 1rst.
Monsoon Trough looks active right now.
He's also saying that the NAO forecast will be in the neutral range...i guess this will allow the warm steadly over the next week or two
Yeah it was good. Didn't watch much due to the time difference.
I posted a discussion of the current Atlantic basin dynamics given that a subtropical cyclone is possible in the next days.
Please leave comments/questions, I am deciding whether or not to do these extensive discussions daily during the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. I hope it provides more detail than the discussions on the NHC webpage and can help in understanding what is going on each day during hurricane season.
The US also provides their product free to the Weather Channels, Accuweathers and Wundergrouds of the world while ECMWF and UKMET charge for use of their products. This will not be getting any better with further budget cuts.
The GFS is scheduled for EnKF this June, and resolution increase about a year from now, but we will be in a catch-up mode for a long, long time.
Whats up NCHurricane2009...i'lll have a read when I can.
Thanks much
The storm near the Aleutians near Alaska is going to be down to 973 to 974mb according to GFS and Canadian models.
the Mexico low will be near Texas but also very much over the western side of the Gulf.
The main system over the plains will be in the high 980 mb to low 990mb pressure ranges, with max Vorticity at the top or off the color scale on the canadian model.
We're probably going to get some sort of extreme precip events and severe weather events one way or another.
Looks like the worst of it may actually be on the 15th at about 7p.m. central time.
Meanwhile, at least 3 good models insist "Alberto" will form.
Not much...just another evening here after work...alone in my apartment. Getting used to it though since I moved up here (in SE Michigan) from NC...
Part of the entertainment lately has been the unusual weather & reading about it here...
That's very important, as this could be the difference bettween an active or unactive hurricane season
What's a kelvin wave
Looks like it has alot of dust out in front of it, doubt it survives. Nevertheless it is very intresting to see something of that magnitude at this time of year.
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