Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
|
| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:57 GMT le 13 avril 2012 | +47 |
| Permalink | A A A |
|
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
|
Tropical Blogs
Tropical Weather Stickers®
 |
61 ° F
Nuageux
|
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Demandez votre Weather Sticker® gratuit |
 |
Téléchargez vos photos |
 |
Weather API for Developers NEW! |
 |
Devenez un membre du site |
 |
Trouvez-nous sur Facebook |
 |
Suivez-nous sur Twitter |
| Copyright © 2013 Weather Underground, Inc. | À propos de nous - Contact - Soutien - Emploi - Communiqués de presse - Conditions de service - Privacy Statement |
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 — Blog Index
I guess major river flooding shouldn't be much of an issue this year, since we had such a pathetic winter and snow season. Everything is already melted and ran off.
We could still have some serious localized flash flooding in some areas over the next few days though.
Any word on how many tornadoes actually formed last night?
The Norman cell touched down at least two times confirmed.
The Altus cell touched down at least two times confirmed.
There were also at least two or three other cells with suspected tornadoes, but there was no visual confirmation at the time I gave up watching last night.
At one point, the Altus cell had a confirmed multi-vortex tornado, described as a "satellite tornado," and greater than 4 inch max hail size a couple times.
I haven't heard of any damage reports from it, so maybe it hit in an un-populated area.
The Cyclone Phase State on those has been showing cold core.
with sea surface temps in the low 70s it will be quite tough for it to gain subtropical charecteristics.
Probably a lot, although I doubt nothing will happen today.
That's my concern... The low SST's are the main reason why I still don't believe we will see Alberto out of this
I'm not saying it can't, but I'm not expecting it
How many tornado reports will we receive today
A. 0-50
B. 51-100
C. 101-150
D. 151-200
E. 200 or more
I go with high end C
CYCLONE TYPE ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING: A NEED TO RE-VISIT THE ISSUE
B. ~ 75
Reports? C or D.
I got a WU mail from a new blogger named EugeneTillman who has to wait 24 hours before posting but wants me to put in his answer of 88 tornado reports for today... This is clearly a popular poll :)
High b tornadoes 94
But there could be a thousand reports for tornadoes
However, the same low is being predicted by the GFS and CMC.
Is that true. 24hr wait till posting??
If you're not a paid member
D or E
Lots of chasers are on this system so there will be a ton of reports
If you don't pay u have to wait 24 hrs
oh ok, didn't know that. Maybe that will stop the trolls unless they can wait 24hrs to troll.
"Huge tornado outbreak for the states tomorrow... so don't bug me!"
This is mine for today:
"Yup, gonna sit back with a beer and watch this tornado outbreak from afar ... hopefully no lives are lost"
There is a dry line that will be moving across Kansas.. and then a cold front as well... there is a massive cold air mass that will push south across the mountains and then into the plains
There is a dryline with a trailing cold front stretched across western Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. There is a warm front moving northwestward across northwest Nebraska, allowing for abundant moisture to rise northward.
Loop
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Damage from the St. Louis-East St. Louis Tornado.
The May 1896 tornado outbreak sequence was a series of violent and deadly tornado outbreaks that struck much of the Central and Southern United States from May 15 to May 27, 1896. It is considered one of the worst tornado outbreak sequences on record. There were four particularly notable tornado outbreaks during the two-week period. It produced at least two, or perhaps three F5 tornadoes as well as the third deadliest tornado ever in United States history. A total of 484 people were killed during the entire outbreak sequence by at least 20 different tornadoes which struck Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, Missouri, Iowa, Kentucky and Michigan.Sherman tornado outbreak
The Sherman, Texas tornado outbreak was the first of a series of deadly tornado outbreaks that occurred during the month of May in 1896. The Sherman outbreak took place on May 15, 1896. This outbreak killed 73 people and injured nearly 300 others.
Most of the fatalities on this day came from a single supercell thunderstorm that traveled from Denton to Sherman. The first tornado destroyed several homes south of the Denton area killing two. A second storm north of the town killed an additional three people before producing the deadly Sherman tornado. At around 5:00 pm, a tornado about two blocks wide cut a path through most of the western portion of Sherman and traveled for about 28 miles (45 km). As it arrived near the city, the width narrowed to about 100 %u2013 400 yards, but the storm intensified. In addition to the complete destruction of nearly 50 homes, an iron bridge was blown away by the cyclone. Bodies of the victims were transported into the court house and a vacant building. Several bodies were recovered from a muddy creek Seventy-three people were killed by this single tornado, one of the worst on records in North Texas and the Red River Valley region.
Additional killer tornadoes were recorded north of Wichita, Kansas in McPherson County and further south in Bryan County, Oklahoma.
[edit] Kansas/Nebraska tornado
The second major tornado outbreak took place on May 17 where two zones of activity produced deadly tornadoes across the Midwest and Plains states. The first tornado however came from a different system, and killed at least 5 near Elva, Kentucky when their home was destroyed.
During the late afternoon a 1 mile (2 km) wide (possibly F5) tornado traveled through portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska and swept away numerous farms along its path and killed at least 25 people. The hardest hit areas along the 100 miles (160 km) track included the Seneca (six fatalities), Oneida (six fatalities), Reserve (five fatalities) and Sabetha (three fatalities). Four fatalities were also recorded in Nebraska by this same tornado. At least 200 others were injured. Damage in Seneca alone was estimated at around $250,000 in 1896 dollars where most of the homes, the fairgrounds and other small structures sustained at least heavy if not complete damage. The Grand Opera House in that town as well as the Nemaha County Courthouse were also flattened........... Midwest/Great Lakes outbreak
After a small lull in the intense activity, the third outbreak started across the Upper Plains states on May 24. One night-time tornado near Des Moines, Iowa killed at least 21 people including several members of a single family. Fatalities were recorded in Bondurant, Valeria and Mingo in Polk and Jasper Counties. 60 people were also injured.
Late during the evening hours of May 25, another F5 tornado touched down and moved northeast for about 30 miles (48 km). The system affected portions of Oakland, Lapeer and Livingston Counties northwest of Detroit. Areas affected included Thomas, Ortonville and Oakwood just after 9:00 pm. With 47 deaths, this is the second deadliest tornado ever in Michigan trailing only the Flint Tornado of 1953 which killed 116 in Genessee County just outside Flint. Nine of the fatalities were in a single home in Ortonville and parts of some homes were found dozens of miles away. Twenty-two people were killed in Ortonville, ten in Oakwood, three in Thomas, four in North Oxford and three in Whigville with others in rural areas.
Other killer tornadoes on that day touched down in Ogle County, Illinois (two different tornadoes) and Macomb & Tuscola Counties in Michigan. Several homes and farms in the Mount Clemens area were wiped out and others were moved from their foundation and the recently completed Colonial Hotel was leveled. 30 homes were levelled in total and two people were killed. St. Louis-East St. Louis tornado
Main article: St. Louis-East St. Louis Tornado
The third deadliest tornado struck the St. Louis Metropolitan Area on both sides of the Mississippi River in Missouri and Illinois on May 27. That tornado alone killed 255 while 27 other were killed elsewhere in Illinois and seven elsewhere in Missouri including three at a school in Audrain County. Twenty-four of the 27 other fatalities were recorded by a single tornado with 13 of them near New Baden. In that town about half of the homes were completely destroyed with damage figures at around $50,000. The towns of Belleville and Mascoutah were also hit. Three people were killed by the other killer tornado that tracked between Nashville and Mount Verno Fatalities were also reported the following day in Pennsylvania and New Jersey near Trenton between Philadelphia and New York City.
I look at surface observations and look for a sudden windshift and drop in dewpoints.
Just as the models predicted.
It's going to appear rapidly, we might not have much time between the first STWO on it and the possible first advisory if we do get Sub-Tropical Storm Alberto.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...
...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A BROAD 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY EXTENDING NNEWD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ON
THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH THIS LINE POTENTIALLY HAVING
A SEVERE THREAT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE
LINE EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEVELOPING
A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINEAR MCS. AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE
AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AT LITTLE ROCK AR AND SHREVEPORT LA AT 21Z SUNDAY
SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S F AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KT. THIS SHOULD EASILY
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT POTENTIALLY ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA. THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT COULD BE FOR WIND DAMAGE DUE TO
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS. IF A LARGE-SCALE BOWING LINE SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE...THEN
AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP. THE STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALSO ENABLE ROTATING STORMS TO PERSIST WITHIN
THE LINE ITSELF AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
...UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY WITH THE MODELS DEVELOPING A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW ACROSS SE
MN...WI SWD INTO IL. IN ADDITION...THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 60 TO 70 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXTEND EWD ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. BACKED SFC WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD ALSO RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG A SFC TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE LOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 04/14/2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...SWRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 141442Z - 141615Z
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES...WRN OK...AND SWRN KS IF THE THREAT FOR DEEPENING
CONVECTION ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES A ZONE OF TOWERING CUMULUS
EVOLVING FROM FAR SWRN KS SSWWD INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THIS
ZONE ALIGNS WITH A RIBBON OF INFERRED ASCENT PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE 12Z AMARILLO RAOB MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SFC OBS
INDICATES THAT INHIBITION FOR A SURFACE-BASED PARCEL HAS ALMOST
COMPLETELY ERODED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...PARTICULARLY IN
POCKETS OF INSOLATION. FARTHER NORTH INTO SWRN KS -- I.E. NORTH OF
THE TRACK OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A PRIOR SUBTLE IMPULSE -- THE CAP
IS MUCH MORE STOUT PER DODGE CITY 12Z RAOB. REGARDLESS...CONTINUED
SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND
DECREASING INHIBITION THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE/FRONT...AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY BE IMMINENT. ALSO OF NOTE...DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF
FIELDS HAVE STRUGGLED GREATLY WITH REGARDS TO REPRESENTING THE
CURRENT SCENARIO...AND LIKELY ARE NOT RESOLVING SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT THAT WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SUPPORTING THE INITIATION.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR YIELDING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 300
M2/S2...MAINTAINED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
That's a tad worrying. :P
B
I'd bet they would be relieved that nobody was hurt or killed and would approach it as more like "back to the computer models Monday morning."
Remember, high risk doesn't necessarily mean it's a foregone conclusion of tornadoes. It just means that all the necessary ingredients are there. We just have to wait to see if Mother nature makes sugar water or full blown lemonade.
No seriously, it's just insane right now.
It will go off the chart (over 10) later today though.
Replaced by Irma in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
667 Articuno: look at post 305
Or at 6 Chucktown: Irene has been retired and 7 Tropicsweatherpr: ...and replaced with Irma
Viewing: 701 - 751
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 — Blog Index