Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:57 GMT le 13 avril 2012 +47
A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.


Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters
April Storms (llpj04)
this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.
April Storms
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)
Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.
Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma
Categories: Severe Weather Tornado
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1401. hurricanehunter27 22:51 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Here quickly!!! Link
This is one of the best looking tornadoes I'v ever watched.
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3473
1402. ScottLincoln 22:51 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Starting to look more like a debris ball type hook than a regular hook echo. Might be indicative of debris... but that doesn't help us much at this point because we already know the large tornado is on the ground. Watch out Langley, KS.
Member Since: 28 septembre 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1592
1403. hydrus 22:51 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THICK STRATUS RELATED TO THE
ADVECTION OF MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM NRN TX INTO
CNTRL OK AND CNTRL KS...WITH SSELY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
MPH. A SPECIAL 17Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER
NEAR 650 MB...WITH RELATIVELY COOL...BUT MOIST...PROFILES IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES CAPPING
INCREASING AFTER 21Z OVER PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN OK. THUS...THE
THREAT APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL THERE...BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE EDGE
OF THE ONGOING HIGH RISK AREA. THUS...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE.

TO THE W...CLEARING WAS TAKING PLACE ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE FROM
SW KS INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND WRN OK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER WRN
OK...AND AT OR ABOVE 80 F IN THE PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME UNCAPPED IN THESE AREAS. INDEED...SEVERE
STORMS WERE ALREADY ONGOING OVER WRN KS INTO FAR NW OK ALONG THE
DRYLINE...WITH TOWERING CU FARTHER S.

WAVES OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ON THE DRYLINE...WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING AS SURFACE WINDS VEER OVER THE PANHANDLES.
THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SEVERE...AS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEEDED TO INITIATE STORMS.

MEANWHILE...LATEST RUC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COOLING ALOFT
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE MORE ADVANCED THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -13 C TO THE DRYLINE BY 00Z. THIS WILL
ONLY HELP TO INCREASE UPDRAFT ACCELERATION IN AN ALREADY VOLATILE
SETUP. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR
VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE FROM NW OK ACROSS NRN OK INTO CNTRL AND
S-CNTRL KS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR. WITH ONGOING CELLS OVER
CNTRL KS...THE LOCATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO PLAY A KEY
ROLE IN TORNADOGENESIS AS SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH THEM LATER. SOME
OF THE CITIES WITH THE HIGHEST RISK INCLUDE ENID...PRATT...GREAT
BEND...SALINA...HUTCHINSON...WICHITA.

...NRN KS/NEB...
LARGE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN KS...WITH STRONG
MESOCYCLONES NOTED ON RADAR AND PROBABLY TORNADOES. THESE CELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK NEWD INTO NEB WHERE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND
INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT...SOME OF THESE HP CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY
BOW WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL.

ANOTHER LIKELY AREA OF SUPERCELL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM
NWRN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL NEB. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CU
FIELD...W OF THE ONGOING KS ACTIVITY...AND E OF THE DRYLINE. BACKED
SURFACE FLOW OVER NEB...ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPING TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT. STRONG TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE.

..JEWELL.. 04/14/2012
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1404. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:52 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Oh my god.

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1405. RTSplayer 22:53 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
In...Credible.

My God what a storm.

Which Cell is that again? Justin Robets' storm...
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1406. hurricanehunter27 22:53 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
I hope it does not hit a town.
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1407. MAweatherboy1 22:53 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
This is one of the best looking tornadoes I'v ever watched.

Absolutely epic.
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6373
1408. MAweatherboy1 22:54 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I hope it does not hit a town.

Marquette may be in the way... If it misses there its mostly rural
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6373
1409. hurricanehunter27 22:55 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh my god.

Look at Justin Roberts it was insane. He is only 1 or 2 miles from the tornado and omg it just got bigger.
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1410. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:55 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
This violent tornado is about to hit Langley. We should see a debris ball appear on radar shortly.
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1411. hydrus 22:55 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
This map shows all the chasers names and location...Link
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1413. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:56 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
It has horizontal vortices!
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1414. RTSplayer 22:56 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
OMG horizontal vortices.

Very violent tornado.

Maybe its a EF4 right now.
Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875
1415. hurricanehunter27 22:57 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Wow its got satellite tornadoes coming off it. AKA horizontal vortices.
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1417. IceCoast 22:58 GMT le 14 avril 2012    


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1418. RTSplayer 22:58 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
It may even be trying to drop a satellite vortex on the left side.

Very much debris and very violent.

One of the best videos I've ever seen.
Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875
1419. CJ5 22:59 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
great live tornado on the grounf video here

check micheal wuz

www.torndaovideos.net click on micheal wuzberger
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1420. MAweatherboy1 22:59 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Imagine being Justin Roberts right now... That close to so much power
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1421. hurricanehunter27 22:59 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Well we were wondering when the tornadoes would start showing up.
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1422. BahaHurican 22:59 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Quoting EugeneTillman:

Second pot of coffee just made. Gonna be a long night I'm afraid. My folks are terrified of these things so for Mother's day Mom is getting one of those NOAA radio thingy's. Wonder if I can get one directly from the NOAA website.
I think I'd sleep in the basement on night like this... really scary situation 4 pple in the area.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
so guys whats up with the possible STS that will form in Atlantic or did models droped it
Still on the maps... due to initate 2morrow.

Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Honestly, I haven't been that impressed thus far from this outbreak (which is a very good thing). Seems like most of the tornado reports were very brief touchdowns. Now that doesn't mean it can't get worse, but were are approaching the traditional diurnal peak for tornado formation.
I thought the worst of it isn't due until tonight.

Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17672
1423. RTSplayer 23:00 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh my god.



I haven't figured out if that's the same storm or another one...
Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875
1424. JTDailyUpdate 23:00 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
IT's live on the weather channel
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1425. hurricanehunter27 23:01 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
I know everyone is looking at the wedge cell but let me point out every other cell is now looking just as dangerous. The southern most KS storm looking really bad.
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1426. JTDailyUpdate 23:02 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Link for Radio Feed

Link
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1427. ScottLincoln 23:03 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This violent tornado is about to hit Langley. We should see a debris ball appear on radar shortly.


Langley isn't that big. It already seems to have had a psuedo-debris appearance for several scans. Probably dust from the fields or some light structure debris. Luckily a mostly rural area thus far.
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1428. MAweatherboy1 23:04 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Look out Nashville, KS from the south Kansas storm
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1429. RTSplayer 23:05 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
HOLY! Here fast My goodness



WTF?

Is that thing anti-cyclonic?

That's very rare for so strong a tornado to be rotating clockwise?

Maybe the film is playing tricks on me or something?
Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875
1430. Bluestorm5 23:07 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Salina, KS is a decent sized town. I've been there at least twice when I was on trips to the Rockies. Btw, that's a big tornado on Kurt's stream!!!
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1431. CaicosRetiredSailor 23:07 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
...
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1432. MAweatherboy1 23:08 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Salina, KS is a decent sized town. I've been there at least twice when I was on trips to the Rockies. Btw, that's a big tornado on Kurt's stream!!!

And getting bigger!
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6373
1433. hurricanehunter27 23:09 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Its a cone now. Seems very strong still. Btw the guy on the phone with the news is dead wrong its still very strong and on the ground.

Edit: Its got skinny again will likely die and reform.
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1434. IceCoast 23:09 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Still going strong.

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1435. ncstorm 23:09 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

And getting bigger!


TWC said its affecting only rural areas?
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1436. MAweatherboy1 23:10 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Quoting ncstorm:


TWC said its affecting only rural areas?

Thank God yes
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1437. BahaHurican 23:11 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Hydrus, don't 4get 2 hit enter before and after your [img] code.... makes 4 better readability and viewing.

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1438. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:11 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
who do i see JFV on chaser vid comments
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1439. hurricanehunter27 23:13 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Southern KS storm seems to be very strong as well.
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1440. LargoFl 23:14 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
603 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

KSC155-142315-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120414T2315Z/
RENO KS-
603 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL RENO COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 601 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ABBYVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE POSSIBLE. MOBILE HOMES
COMPLETELY DESTROYED IF HIT. SOME TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.
VEHICLES WILL LIKELY BE THROWN BY TORNADIC WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NICKERSON AND WILLOWBROOK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADOES AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS. TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3818 9823 3816 9821 3816 9815 3818 9814
3818 9810 3817 9784 3798 9804 3802 9833
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 223DEG 31KT 3806 9813

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

KLEINSASSER
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1441. CJ5 23:14 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Dave Howard has a beauty live at tornadovideos.net
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1442. Doppler22 23:14 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
The people north of Medicine Lodge, KS and in Salina shuld watch out... also the people in Alva, OK have a descent cell coming for them
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1443. MrstormX 23:14 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
The Salina tornado seems like it is very close or even over Falun, Oklahoma which is a very tiny town.
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1444. redux 23:15 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
it appears to me, the tornado moving toward salina will come very close to the town.
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1445. nigel20 23:15 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Good evening all!
I see that tornadoes are popping up all over the place...luckily most are missing populated areas for the moment
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1446. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:16 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
this stupid computres suks right now
may have to shut it down completly remove the cpu cooling fan an alum cooler coils clean it and put it back together since yesterday pissing me right off can't see anything or loadf anything
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1447. Doppler22 23:17 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all!
I see that tornadoes are popping up all over the place...luckily most are missing populated areas for the moment


Except for Salina because that is a pretty good size town
Member Since: 13 février 2012 Posts: 3 Comments: 1247
1448. Tropicsweatherpr 23:17 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
I have to give kudos to TWC as they are having a complete coverage with stormchaser videos,reporting from the field in different locations and Dr Greg Forbes providing the expert analysis.
Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8218
1449. LargoFl 23:17 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
all over the place tonight.....................TORNADO WARNING
IAC137-142330-
/O.NEW.KOAX.TO.W.0005.120414T2306Z-120414T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
606 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 604 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR EMERSON...OR 36 MILES EAST OF OMAHA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELLIOTT AND GRANT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4114 9493 4107 9528 4107 9531 4105 9535
4110 9537 4111 9537 4112 9536 4116 9527
4115 9493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 247DEG 44KT 4108 9535

$$

BOUSTEAD/MAYES
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1451. hurricanehunter27 23:18 GMT le 14 avril 2012    
Yah the southern storm has funnels and wants really badly to produce a large tornado.
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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