Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:57 GMT le 13 avril 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.

Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)

this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.

Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)

Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.

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1701. MAweatherboy1 01:17 GMT le 15 avril 2012
How about the storm near Goesell, KS... Looks pretty good to me. Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 71 Comments: 6537

1702. Xyrus2000 01:17 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Current reports on this outbreak Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1037

1703. CaicosRetiredSailor 01:19 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: FYI... report from a close friend recently that a likely tornado just moved through northwest Creston, IA, with the bow echo, about 1 hour ago. Damage is near the hospital and college in town. Was under severe thunderstorm warning at the time. Main roads being blocked/detoured and numerous emergency services en route, don't see any info on injuries. CRESTON, Iowa - A tornado damaged a hospital in Creston on Saturday night. Authorities with the Creston Police Department said the tornado hit the Greater Regional Medical Center about 7:30 p.m. The extent of the damage is not yet known. Creston Mayor Warren Woods said power lines are down all over Creston, and much of the city is without electricity. There are no reports of injuries yet. Stay with KCCI-TV and KCCI.com for further details. http://www.kcci.com/news/central-iowa/Creston-hos pital-hit-by-tornado/-/9357080/10820290/-/d80yobz/ -/index.html Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5260

1705. hurricanehunter27 01:19 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000: Current reports on this outbreak And we still have all night with a high risk for tornadoes. Greensburg is in a heap of trouble btw! Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1706. hydrus 01:19 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: No reports of injuries so far... Wouldn't it be great if it stays that way. Amen. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14721

1707. CybrTeddy 01:20 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Large tornado on the ground!! Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20658

1708. MAweatherboy1 01:20 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: How about the storm near Goesell, KS... Looks pretty good to me. Does it have a debris ball or is it just part of the storm? Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 71 Comments: 6537

1709. WxGeekVA 01:20 GMT le 15 avril 2012
WHOA large tornado on the ground!!! Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3355

1711. CybrTeddy 01:20 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Reed Timmer in D2 also has a large tornado about to intercept. Link Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20658

1712. MAweatherboy1 01:20 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: Large tornado on the ground!! Where? Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 71 Comments: 6537

1713. hurricanehunter27 01:21 GMT le 15 avril 2012
This may be a debris ball. Scott I expect ur input on this one plz tell me I'm wrong. Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1714. 1900hurricane 01:21 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: And we still have all night with a high risk for tornadoes. Greensburg is in a heap of trouble btw! Looks that way. [Bumps Greensburg radar loops to new page] Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

1715. Bluestorm5 01:23 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Poor Greensburg things are not looking good for them at all. All the Chasers are on the Eastern storms and this one looks like it about to drop a monster. just like 2007... 90% storm chasers were focusing on storms in Oklahoma when EF5 dropped a bomb on Greensburg suddenly. Look like it's happening again :\ storm chasers busy to the east again now. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 4305

1716. 1900hurricane 01:23 GMT le 15 avril 2012
HOLY S*!!! Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments:** 10456

1717. Xyrus2000 01:23 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Where? North of Cherokee, moving into Harper County KS. This is the one heading towards Wichita. EDIT: Wedge tornado now. We're going to be losing visuals soon more than likely. Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1037

1719. hurricanehunter27 01:24 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: just like 2007... 90% storm chasers were focusing on storms in Oklahoma when EF5 dropped a bomb on Greensburg suddenly. Look like it's happening again :\ storm chasers busy to the east again now. The velocity's are incredibly strong. Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1720. Thundercloud01221991 01:24 GMT le 15 avril 2012
It is missing the city Member Since: 1 août 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3693

1721. hurricanehunter27 01:25 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting Thundercloud01221991: It is missing the city Its not even passed it yet. Also a large cone on OK storm. Edit: Going to be a really close call for Greensburg. Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1722. hyperanthony 01:26 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Getting dark now. Member Since: 28 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 37

1723. Thundercloud01221991 01:26 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Its not even passed it yet. Also a large cone on OK storm. Yes but it is going to stay west of Greensburg Member Since: 1 août 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3693

1724. RTSplayer 01:27 GMT le 15 avril 2012
The one near Greensburg is one of the strongest signatures we've seen. Very similar to the Woodsward one that eventually spawned the multi-vortex tornado. Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 1055

1725. hurricanehunter27 01:28 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting Thundercloud01221991: Yes but it is going to stay west of Greensburg You don't know that. Storms this strong can take a right turn. So you cant say it missed Greensburg till its North of Greensburg. Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1726. Bluestorm5 01:28 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting Thundercloud01221991: Yes but it is going to stay west of Greensburg it's going to be a very close call. I think it's going to shave the town a bit... tornado can change directions. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 4305

1727. RTSplayer 01:30 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Vortex signature in Iowa...again.... Q8 Lucas IA 72 dBZ 36,000 ft. 67 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 3.50 in. 0 knots new (0) Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 1055

1728. CybrTeddy 01:30 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Stove pipe tornado on the ground N of Byron OK, derbies ball on radar. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20658

1729. hurricanehunter27 01:31 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Ed Oneal is on the Greensburg storm and he reported a funnel about 15min ago before he had to stop for gas. Its probably a tornado now. Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1730. HurricaneTracker01 01:31 GMT le 15 avril 2012
90% of Thurman, IA destroyed, population 236, according to mayor Member Since: 1 août 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 125

1731. Bluestorm5 01:31 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Unless tornado turns 90 degrees right, I'm 70% sure Greensburg is okay. Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 12 Comments: 4305

1732. entrelac 01:32 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting HurricaneTracker01: 90% of Thurman, IA destroyed, population 236, according to mayor Source please ETA - Found it Link Member Since: 18 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

1733. MAweatherboy1 01:32 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Storm near KS/OK border is strong Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 71 Comments: 6537

1734. TropicalAnalystwx13 01:32 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Debris ball. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25992

1735. hurricanehunter27 01:33 GMT le 15 avril 2012
This is really really bad. OK storm. Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1736. HurricaneDean07 01:33 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Watching live stream.. Two Tornadoes southeast of Kiowa, KS and they're plowing to the northeast at 40 mph toward Southeastern Wichita. Member Since: 3 octobre 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129

1737. hyperanthony 01:33 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Moving into Kansas Member Since: 28 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 37

1738. hurricanehunter27 01:33 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting HurricaneTracker01: 90% of Thurman, IA destroyed, population 236, according to mayor Yes I would like a source for this also. Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1739. Thundercloud01221991 01:33 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Rotation for Greensburg is now NW of the city Member Since: 1 août 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3693

1740. entrelac 01:34 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Yes I would like a source for this also. Found it Link Member Since: 18 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

1741. 1900hurricane 01:35 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting Thundercloud01221991: Rotation for Greensburg is now NW of the city It came uncomfortably close though. Might have clipped the edge if it was a big one. Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

1742. hurricanehunter27 01:35 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting Thundercloud01221991: Rotation for Greensburg is now NW of the city Ok now they are in the clear. Also Rotation is even stronger for Greensburg storm! This may have a monster wedge with it! Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1743. HurricaneDean07 01:35 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Storm near KS/OK border is strong Just posted that... Watching it on live stream.. its approaching manchester, on the border of KS/OK. there's two of em now Member Since: 3 octobre 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129

1744. RTSplayer 01:36 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Greensburg area tornado. X5 63 dBZ 45,000 ft. 78 kg/m² 90% chance 100% chance 2.25 in. 47 knots SW (223) Harper county area tornado F3 61 dBZ 46,000 ft. 77 kg/m² 90% chance 100% chance 2.25 in. 31 knots SW (229) Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 1055

1745. hurricanehunter27 01:36 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting entrelac: Found it Link Meh he still exaggerated it. 90% damaged not destroyed. Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1746. TropicalAnalystwx13 01:36 GMT le 15 avril 2012
No injuries or fatalities is good. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25992

1747. hurricanehunter27 01:37 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27: Ok now they are in the clear. Also Rotation is even stronger for Greensburg storm! This may have a monster wedge with it! Also this storm is taking the exact same track as the Salina storm. Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1748. redux 01:38 GMT le 15 avril 2012
i just hope the people of Manchester got out of dodge. Member Since: 28 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 183

1749. TropicalAnalystwx13 01:39 GMT le 15 avril 2012
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 836 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 KSC077-150200- /O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-120415T0200Z/ HARPER KS- 836 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HARPER COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT... AT 831 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WALDRON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF VEHICLES LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ANTHONY AND BLUFF CITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW. && Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25992

1750. hurricanehunter27 01:39 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Wow talk about worst case scenario, strong, large, nighttime tornadoes. Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3675

1751. SouthDadeFish 01:40 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Well here's your helicity: 600-700 is very strong, which is why the tornado approaching Manchester OK has been able maintain itself so long. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2441

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