Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:57 GMT le 13 avril 2012 | +47 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Link for live coverage from Wichita.
Fujita scale up to F12
Thanks!
IAC031-115-139-163-ILC131-161-150300-
/O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0011.120415T0203Z-120415T0300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
903 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
EASTERN MUSCATINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...
EASTERN LOUISA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.
* AT 900 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR WAPELLO...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TOOLESBORO...GRANDVIEW...NEW BOSTON...FRUITLAND...MANNON...JOY...
ELIZA...MUSCATINE...MILLERSBURG...ALEDO...ILLINOIS CITY...
FAIRPORT...HAMLET...MATHERVILLE...REYNOLDS...MONTP ELIER...DURANT...
TAYLOR RIDGE...ANDALUSIA...BUFFALO...BLUE GRASS...SHERRARD AND OAK
GROVE.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 276 AND 278.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.
&&
LAT...LON 4166 9094 4133 9043 4131 9043 4107 9110
4107 9118 4119 9130
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 231DEG 44KT 4118 9113
WIND...HAIL <58MPH 1.50IN
$$
NICHOLS
Hypothetically and scientifically are 2 different things :)
The cell is splitting... Now probably 2 separate tornadoes on the ground near Saint John and Macksville...
No. EF5 is winds of 200mph+, and as such, there is no upper bound. EF5 is the highest a tornado can be rated, even if it were determined that winds were 400mph.
That's the old Greensburg storm
IAC039-053-117-125-135-159-175-181-150800-
/O.NEW.KDMX.FF.W.0005.120415T0155Z-120415T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
855 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
EASTERN UNION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
LUCAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHEASTERN RINGGOLD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...
* UNTIL 300 AM CDT SUNDAY
* AT 855 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CHARITON AND OSCEOLA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.
&&
LAT...LON 4110 9432 4130 9287 4100 9287 4078 9432
$$
ZOGG
2 tornadoes
Link
Just imputing my two cents here, but according to the original Fuijita scale a F12 would have a speed of 738 mph, also known as Mach 1 or the speed of sound
F6
Referring to the old scale. I even pointed out earlier that the EF5 is 200mph
That's not important right now, Macksville is in huge trouble.
It looks like the two rotation icons you are seeing there are due to substantial radar dealias failures. There still appears to be only one major circulation, and maybe one smaller, weaker one. The storm near Macksville is still the real, large rotation, at least for now.
... A Tornado Warning remains in effect for eastern Edwards... southeastern Pawnee... northwestern Pratt and Stafford counties until 915 PM CDT...
At 859 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated very strong rotation associated with a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado 3 miles south of Macksville. This tornadic storm was moving northeast at 55 mph. Dangerous and extremely destructive hail up to softball size is also expected with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Macksville...
Dillwyn...
St. John...
Seward...
mainly rural areas of eastern Edwards... northwestern Pratt...
southeastern Pawnee and Stafford counties.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
To repeat... a large... extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is confirmed! To protect your life... take cover now. Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or outdoors... move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Tornadoes at night are especially dangerous. Do not wait until you see or hear the tornado... it may be too late. Take cover now!
Lat... Lon 3773 9902 3774 9926 3782 9931 3827 9900
3827 9847 3826 9847 3795 9847
time... Mot... loc 0200z 224deg 50kt 3793 9897
hail 4.25in
A TORNADO IS CONFIRMED TO BE ON THE GROUND
the guy is busy doing his job, and then he has to answer questions like " is this storm going to hit us?"
Confirmed two tornadoes with that storm.
EDIT- 3/4 mile wide tornado!
Left cell looks stronger but thee right is one of the better of the day!! This is insane!!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
901 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
KSC077-191-150230-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-120415T0230Z/
SUMNER KS-HARPER KS-
901 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARPER AND
SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...
AT 856 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF BLUFF CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.
IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER
OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS
POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF
VEHICLES LIKELY.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALDWELL...ARGONIA...FREEPORT AND MILAN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.
&&
LAT...LON 3700 9778 3699 9811 3706 9816 3740 9774
3703 9749 3699 9769 3699 9777
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 223DEG 33KT 3713 9791
TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
HAIL...2.75IN
$$
KLEINSASSER
Ratings above F5 were not used operationally, even with the old scale.
Be careful not to confuse shear and actual wind speed. For an actual measured speed of "210+mph winds, you would need an actual pixel of about +180kts or -180kts. That is difficult to measure with doppler radar because it would be several times past the nyquist velocity and could only be displayed as a dealiased/reconstructed value.
Link
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