Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

1 L0 Kiowa OK, 66 dBZ, 35,000 ft., 58 kg/m², 70% Chance severe hail, 100% Chancehail, 1.50 in. per hour, 19 knots (movement),SW (227)

Quoting MississippiWx:
I know all of the attention is on the Plains severe weather outbreak, as it should be, but don't forget about our little subtropical system in the Atlantic. It's only 3 days out now:

12z Euro:

With only three days out,it looks like a done deal it will happen.

Quoting Patrap:
Earthquake in Lake Toba 2 days ago.

Yeah.

We can do without that one waking.

Thank you very much.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


With only three days out,it looks like a done deal it will happen.

That's the impression I'm getting. It's going to be fun to watch. The 12z Euro has it getting pretty close to Bermuda on Wednesday. Of course, with most subtropical systems, the worst weather is way off to the east of the center. We'll see if that's the case with this one as well.

12z Euro for Wednesday:

Quoting MississippiWx:


That's the impression I'm getting. It's going to be fun to watch. The 12z Euro has it getting pretty close to Bermuda on Wednesday. Of course, with most subtropical systems, the worst weather is way off to the east of the center. We'll see if that's the case with this one as well.

12z Euro for Wednesday:

999mb! if this plays out I would be quite excited

Latest Euro model run is out.

Seems to me it's sticking to the guns on just about everything.

Still looks like the 15th at about 7p.m., give or take a few hours, is going to be the worst weather.


It also appears to take "Alberto" below 1000mb...


Latest Candian takes the plains low down to 988mb.

GFS takes it to 988mb consistently, and even one frame at 986mb.

Quoting LargoFl:
i find some of these advanced forecasts simply amazing, in my entire life I have never..never seen baseball or half dollar sized Hailstones...has anyone here?...imagine the damage to your car or windows? I fully guess they do not..come down easy, crash boom, the damage something like that could cause...and worse..suppose You..are outside walking, going shopping etc..and get caught out in the open..gee.....listen to your local forecasts folks..dont laugh them off and not heed their warnings...they are..trying to keep you and yours safe

We had baseball hail 2S of my house during last week's DFW outbreak. It does exactly the kind of damage you'd expect something that big to do :/. I haven't tried but I bet it's nearly impossible to rent a car within 200 miles of here right now.

Quoting BigTuna:
We had baseball hail 2S of my house during last week's DFW outbreak. It does exactly the kind of damage you'd expect something that big to do :/. I haven't tried but I bet it's nearly impossible to rent a car within 200 miles of here right now.

omg i just knew it would be bad..thanks for the reply, hope no one was outside and got hit..gee

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012

PRC019-039-047-073-101-105-107-141-149-132215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0119.120413T1914Z-120413T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-JAYUYA PR-MOROVIS PR-
NARANJITO PR-OROCOVIS PR-UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-
314 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COROZAL...JAYUYA...MOROVIS ...
NARANJITO...OROCOVIS...UTUADO AND VILLALBA

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

* AT 313 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS
OR TOWARDS THE ADVISORY AREA. AT LEAST UNTIL 6:15 PM PERIODS OF
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND SMALL
STREAMS WILL BE LIKELY. ALSO...MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN ARE
POSSIBLE.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1829 6667 1828 6626 1818 6629 1816 6665

$$

CASTRO

Quoting MississippiWx:
I know all of the attention is on the Plains severe weather outbreak, as it should be, but don't forget about our little subtropical system in the Atlantic. It's only 3 days out now:

12z Euro:

Didn't think I'd see the day when a good probability of a named storm in the Atlantic gets overshadowed by something else.

But I figured it would be tornadoes. The setup looks extreme, I hope everyone is prepared in the high zone because this is going to be bad. And to think, the worst is probably yet to come.

Quoting LargoFl:
omg i just knew it would be bad..thanks for the reply, hope no one was outside and got hit..gee

Yeah that wouldn't make for a very good day. I heard of a few people being brought to hospitals but nothing too serious, a welcome contrast to our infamous 1995 Mayfest hailstorm which hurt dozens - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Mayfest_Storm

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

.LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL TRANSPORT SMOKE FROM A LARGE WILDFIRE NEAR
THE BAKER...COLUMBIA COUNTY LINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER SUNSET...THIS
SMOKE WILL SETTLE NEAR THE SURFACE...CREATING LOW VISIBILITY AT
TIMES.

GAZ147-148-159>161-141400-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SM.Y.0008.120414T0600Z-120414T1400Z/
COOK-BERRIEN-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ADEL...SPARKS...NASHVILLE...QUITMAN...
VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
319 PM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A DENSE
SMOKE ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY.

* VISIBILITY...3 MILES...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS BELOW ONE MILE
POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...SMOKE CAN CAUSE SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY...CREATING
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR THERE WERE
SEVERAL FATALITIES ON INTERSTATE 75 NEAR GAINESVILLE FLORIDA
RELATED TO POOR VISIBILITY FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE. THE SMOKE CAN
ALSO BE HAZARDOUS TO THOSE WITH RESPIRATORY ILLNESSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY MEANS WIDESPREAD FIRES WILL CREATE SMOKE...
LIMITING VISIBILITIES. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...USE YOUR LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU IN CASE A
SUDDEN STOP IS NEEDED.

&&

$$

FOURNIER

Something is up with the blog huh?

These:


A0 Hardeman TX 64 dBZ 37,000 ft. 69 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.75 in. 21 knots SW (235)

X0 Kiowa OK 69 dBZ 39,000 ft. 72 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 3.00 in. 23 knots SW (216)

F0 Hardeman TX 66 dBZ 44,000 ft. 69 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 3.00 in. 19 knots WSW (238)

Quoting LargoFl:
i find some of these advanced forecasts simply amazing, in my entire life I have never..never seen baseball or half dollar sized Hailstones...has anyone here?...imagine the damage to your car or windows? I fully guess they do not..come down easy, crash boom, the damage something like that could cause...and worse..suppose You..are outside walking, going shopping etc..and get caught out in the open..gee.....listen to your local forecasts folks..dont laugh them off and not heed their warnings...they are..trying to keep you and yours safe

A few years back, chasing in Arkansas, I caught a glancing blow from a 4"er. Received 5 stitches and a mild concusion

Cell at Hardeman, TX is upgraded to a tornado vortex signature.

Possible debris ball or just a bad, bad hail core on that one.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS THROUGH A PORTION OF EXTREME SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131937Z - 132130Z

A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN KS BY 21Z. SUPERCELLS WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN KS
SWWD THROUGH S-CNTRL KS AND WRN OK. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED
IN MOIST WARM SECTOR WHERE DIABATIC WARMING AND LOW 60S DEWPOINTS
BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.
CUMULUS IS INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS IN WARM SECTOR
AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY A WEAK CAP REMAINING.
THEREFORE A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. LOW LEVEL SHEAR HAS DECREASED IN WAKE OF PRIMARY LLJ THAT HAS
SHIFTED NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AREA. HOWEVER...DEEP SHEAR OF
35-40 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL. SOME THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY INCREASE TOWARD
EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS.

..DIAL.. 04/13/2012


ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37059501 37059604 37049694 37499635 38339583 38829520
38059466 37509430 37059501

Tornado in hardeman tx
Tornado in San Bernardino CA

CRAZY

Three more major cities in Nebraska are now under a High risk. Omaha, Lincoln, and Norfolk. This outbreak will be very devastating.

Jon Haverfield
Reports saying SPC is considering an upgrade past high risk for tomorrow... Could be first time that it has happened.. #okwx #kswx

Jon Haverfield is a meteorologist at Oklahoma University.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Didn't think I'd see the day when a good probability of a named storm in the Atlantic gets overshadowed by something else.

But I figured it would be tornadoes. The setup looks extreme, I hope everyone is prepared in the high zone because this is going to be bad. And to think, the worst is probably yet to come.

I think the blog has morphed into a severe weather blog as well. With all of the technology we have now and numerous chasers with live streaming of tornadoes, it's hard to not get sucked into the amazement of an outbreak (pun not intended). The great thing about the technology we have is that most of the country has seen the power of a tornado the past couple of years and it has heightened the country's awareness of severe weather and increased our respect for what tornadoes can and will do. I truly believe the Dallas Outbreak at the beginning of the month is a testament to how much we've grown in our knowledge and respect for tornadoes. Thirteen tornadoes in a metropolitan area, zero deaths. Amazing. Let's hope we can get another zero death count tomorrow. Prayers for everyone in the path.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jon Haverfield
Reports saying SPC is considering an upgrade past high risk for tomorrow... Could be first time that it has happened.. #okwx #kswx

Jon Haverfield is a meteorologist at Oklahoma University.

Hey Tropic,

That was reported to be a joke by Mike Hollingshead (storm chaser) posted a few hours ago, and some of his Facebook friends re-posted and tweeted and got way out of control.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jon Haverfield
Reports saying SPC is considering an upgrade past high risk for tomorrow... Could be first time that it has happened.. #okwx #kswx

Jon Haverfield is a meteorologist at Oklahoma University.

If true, woah...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jon Haverfield
Reports saying SPC is considering an upgrade past high risk for tomorrow... Could be first time that it has happened.. #okwx #kswx

Jon Haverfield is a meteorologist at Oklahoma University.

What. Are the considering an Extreme risk or something? The way that sounds, this outbreak could rival April 27.

Quoting emcf30:


Hey Tropic,

That was reported to be a joke by Mike Hollingshead (storm chaser) posted a few hours ago, and some of his Facebook friends re-posted and tweeted and got way out of control.

:\

Like we really need joking over this.

Quoting ncstorm:
That wall cloud on the texaschasers.com feed is HUGE!

Trying to bring it up on my phone, blocked on my computer!!

Quoting emcf30:


Hey Tropic,

That was reported to be a joke by Mike Hollingshead (storm chaser) posted a few hours ago, and some of his Facebook friends re-posted and tweeted and got way out of control.

People really shouldn't joke about stuff like that. Terrible thing to do.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

:\

Like we really need joking over this.

Exactly. There were a lot of upset people over on the NWSChat and other chats.

Quoting ncstorm:
That wall cloud on the texaschasers.com feed is HUGE!

Is that a tornado on the bottom right next to the light poles?

EDIT: Whatever it was is gone now.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

:\

Like we really need joking over this.

Hey, you only live once. :P Not like it's a bad thing to be joking over, after all he is fearmongering and most people who would believe him will take more caution.

Though clearly I'm the only one with a joking personality here. :/

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012

PRC001-055-059-081-093-111-113-121-153-132230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0120.120413T1934Z-120413T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUANICA PR-GUAYANILLA PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR-
SABANA GRANDE PR-YAUCO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-
334 PM AST FRI APR 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUANICA...GUAYANILLA...LARES...MARICAO...PENUELAS. ..PONCE...
SABANA GRANDE...YAUCO AND ADJUNTAS

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 333 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS
OR TOWARDS THE ADVISORY AREA. AT LEAST UNTIL 6:30 PM PERIODS OF
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND SMALL
STREAMS WILL BE LIKELY. ALSO...MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN ARE
POSSIBLE.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1808 6657 1798 6654 1798 6677 1799 6677
1798 6678 1797 6696 1809 6691 1827 6688

$$

CASTRO

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Is that a tornado on the bottom right next to the light poles?

It might be..they stopped driving..LOL

Quoting ncstorm:
That wall cloud on the texaschasers.com feed is HUGE!

I think that's a shelf cloud, not a wall cloud.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jon Haverfield
Reports saying SPC is considering an upgrade past high risk for tomorrow... Could be first time that it has happened.. #okwx #kswx

Jon Haverfield is a meteorologist at Oklahoma University.

Calm down. That's not true. It was a joke and for one it doesn't make any sense to go past high risk. High risk is self explanatory enough if you ask me.

Here is TSR April forecast for the NW Pacific and the numbers are 26/16/7.

Link

Quoting ncstorm:
That wall cloud on the texaschasers.com feed is HUGE!

Nice. That cell has really strengthened recently. Looks like some torrential rain with that storm and any tornado that formed might be rain-wrapped.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Is that a tornado on the bottom right next to the light poles?

EDIT: Whatever it was is gone now.

I know.

They looked that direction once, and I thought I saw something over there, and then they panned back left.

Then b y the time they went right again, whatever it was it was gone.

It looked like a funnel of some sort.

Quoting Ameister12:

People really shouldn't joke about stuff like that. Terrible thing to do.

Ah the joys of social media and the internet. As with almost anything, the myth gets all the way around the world before we can even get the truth written up.

Quoting emcf30:


Exactly. There were a lot of upset people over on the NWSChat and other chats.

I agree the joking needs to stop. I think we will have a major outbreak but not one that rivals last years 4/27 outbreak.

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Ah the joys of social media and the internet. As with almost anything, the myth gets all the way around the world before we can even get the truth written up.

I agree and people fall for it yet! People just need to be prepared in the moderate to high risk areas and hope for the best.

Quoting Ameister12:

I think that's a shelf cloud, not a wall cloud.

I was getting ready to say the same thing, now that I got the video up!

What cell are they on?

Quoting RTSplayer:
Cell at Hardeman, TX is upgraded to a tornado vortex signature.

Possible debris ball or just a bad, bad hail core on that one.

Doesn't jump out at me as a debris ball. Probably hail right now...

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Doesn't jump out at me as a debris ball. Probably hail right now...

any flooding problems expected over the next 2 days?

For those who haven't seen yet.

Quoting Chucktown:
Irene has been retired.

Link

Cell is weakening, looks like they are moving to another one now....

These cells are going to go tornadic very soon.

Quoting ncstorm:
Great radar site for the storms in OKlahoma from NOAA National Storms Severe Laboratory

Oh sweet, they have some Dual-Pol stuff!