Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Dangerous tornado outbreak expected Saturday; Gulf of Mexico SSTs warmest on record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:57 GMT le 13 avril 2012

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A dangerous tornado outbreak is expected on Saturday over the Plains, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes. SPC has has issued their highest level of alert, a "High Risk," for much of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for Saturday. Included in the "High Risk" area are the cities of Wichita, Oklahoma City, and Lincoln. This is the second time SPC has issued a "High Risk" forecast this year; the first "High Risk" forecast came for the March 2 tornado outbreak, which killed 41 people and did $1.5 - $2 billion in damage. It is very unusual for SPC to issue a "High Risk" forecast more than a day in advance of a suspected tornado outbreak; according to Wikipedia, today's "High Risk" forecast is only the second time SPC has ever done this. The other instance was for the April 6 - 8, 2006 tornado outbreak focused over Tennessee, which generated 73 tornadoes that killed 13 and did $1.5 billion in damage. People living in the threatened area need to pay close attention on Saturday to this dangerous severe weather situation.

Figure 1. Severe weather risk for Saturday, April 14, 2012, from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures the warmest on record
Temperatures in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico were the 3rd - 7th warmest on record during the first three months of 2012, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. This allowed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico (25 - 30°N, 85 - 90°W) to climb to 1.4°C (2.5°F) above average during March 2012, according to a wunderground analysis of the Hadley Centre SST data set. This is the warmest March value on record for the Gulf of Mexico, going back over a century of record keeping. During the first two weeks of April, Gulf of Mexico waters remained about 1.5°C above average, putting April on pace to have the warmest April water temperatures on record. Only one year in the past century has had April water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico more than 1.1°C above average; that year was 2002 (1.4°C above average.) All that record-warm water is capable of putting record amounts of water vapor into the air, since evaporation increases when water is warmer. Because moist air is less dense than dry air, this warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico into the developing storm system over the Plains will be highly unstable once it encounters cold, dry air aloft. The record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico are a key reason for the high risk of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.

Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average for April 12, 2012, as computed by NOAA/NESDIS. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are at their warmest levels on record for this time of year.

Follow Weather Underground on twitter for the latest on this potential severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

April Storms (llpj04)

this storm greeted me as I came out of the grocery store, chased me home and got to my driveway the same time I did.

Lightning Up the Pond - Oklahoma (mbryan777)

Last night we had a pretty spectacular lightning storm. I put the camera on the tripod in time-lapse mode and laid on my back on the hillside above the pond taking in an amazing show. When it got more exciting than I was comfortable with, I ran for the house.

Categories: Severe Weather Tornado

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2252. 1900hurricane 03:33 GMT le 15 avril 2012
The tornado might have passed close enough to the airport radar to have messed up its velocity data. Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

2253. TropicalAnalystwx13 03:34 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Significant damage in southern Wichita. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25301

2254. Xyrus2000 03:34 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting NCHurricane2009: Dude...I think KSN lost power. My live feed isn't working. Or it could be that my laptop is bad..anyone else? Still getting the feed. Tornado is carving up the east side of Wichita. Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

2255. Slamguitar 03:34 GMT le 15 avril 2012
I still have the KSN3 feed. Member Since: 2 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1021

2256. Melagoo 03:35 GMT le 15 avril 2012
for tomorrow ... :c/ Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1510

2257. aspectre 03:35 GMT le 15 avril 2012
A more eastward movement. Large destructive wedge tornado CONFIRMED in southeastWitchita, heading toward Andover. Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

2258. RTSplayer 03:35 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting ScottLincoln: 0326UTC update... major debris signature now evident on rho/cc exceeding 3000ft in the air. Tornadic circulation appears to be 0.8-1.0mi wide on radar. What's the word on the Lyon's tornado, headed for Salina region? They had a very close call earlier too. Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

2259. ScottLincoln 03:35 GMT le 15 avril 2012
0331 UTC: large tornado circulation responsible for Haysville/Oaklawn damage appears to be occluding. New tornado now seems to be possibly developing on RFD front just south of Andover. Member Since: 28 septembre 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1577

2260. WxGeekVA 03:35 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Damage confirmed Airport and 64th street Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3316

2261. wxgeek723 03:35 GMT le 15 avril 2012
The bulletins being issued by Topeka for the Wichita tornado are seriously heartbreaking to read. Member Since: 28 août 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 2350

2262. TerraNova 03:36 GMT le 15 avril 2012
KSN reporting the Wichita Airport has taken significant damage. Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

2263. ncstorm 03:36 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Southeast of the downtown area..rotation spotted Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8431

2264. HurricaneDean07 03:36 GMT le 15 avril 2012
84 Mph wind gust recorded at Wichita Airport Member Since: 3 octobre 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4038

2265. hurricanehunter27 03:36 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: What's the word on the Lyon's tornado, headed for Salina region? They had a very close call earlier too. It seems to be a lot weaker. Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

2266. Bluestorm5 03:36 GMT le 15 avril 2012
This storm chaser is behind Wichita tornado looking at damage in Haysville area Link Member Since: 1 août 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3597

2267. Xyrus2000 03:37 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Another potentially bad situation heading to Salina, KS. SPC has 92 reports of tornadoes so far. Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

2268. TropicalAnalystwx13 03:37 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: What's the word on the Lyon's tornado, headed for Salina region? They had a very close call earlier too. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25301

2269. RTSplayer 03:38 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Front is entering Texas. Massive Severe TS outbreak along the entire line. Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

2270. 1900hurricane 03:38 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: What's the word on the Lyon's tornado, headed for Salina region? They had a very close call earlier too. It is still a beast. Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

2271. ScottLincoln 03:38 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting RTSplayer: What's the word on the Lyon's tornado, headed for Salina region? They had a very close call earlier too. Lyon was potentially hit. Havent been watching since the likely major tornado started hitting Wichita. Still looks like some strong signatures on the northern storm... near Lindsborg now. Member Since: 28 septembre 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1577

2272. HurricaneDean07 03:39 GMT le 15 avril 2012
repost. I really wanna know. Does anyone know how to convert custom images into Image urls? trying to post images on the Alberto potential Member Since: 3 octobre 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4038

2273. TropicalAnalystwx13 03:39 GMT le 15 avril 2012
This line is going to take over for the rest of the night. I expect to see hundreds (potentially) of wind reports and many tornadoes along this line. Very large hail is also likely. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25301

2274. ScottLincoln 03:39 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting Bluestorm5: This storm chaser is behind Wichita tornado looking at damage in Haysville area Link Wait until he gets up toward the turnpike and Oaklawn. Member Since: 28 septembre 2002 Posts: 3 Comments: 1577

2275. hurricanehunter27 03:39 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Wow just look at the KSN mets face... Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

2276. hydrus 03:40 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14297

2277. hyperanthony 03:40 GMT le 15 avril 2012
What happened with KSN? Member Since: 28 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 37

2278. Slamguitar 03:40 GMT le 15 avril 2012
KSN3 lost audio but still have video. Member Since: 2 juillet 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1021

2279. VAbeachhurricanes 03:40 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07: repost. I really wanna know. Does anyone know how to convert custom images into Image urls? trying to post images on the Alberto potential Just upload them to a image service like imageshack. Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4801

2280. HurricaneDean07 03:41 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes: Just upload them to a image service like imageshack. Thank you very much, I'll try it Member Since: 3 octobre 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4038

2281. weatherh98 03:41 GMT le 15 avril 2012
down draft dominated tornado Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091

2282. TropicalAnalystwx13 03:41 GMT le 15 avril 2012
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1040 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 1130 PM CDT * AT 1036 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MARQUETTE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF VEHICLES LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SALINA...LINDSBORG...SMOLAN...ASSARIA...GYPSUM...N EW CAMBRIA... BRIDGEPORT AND SALINA AIRPORT. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 246 AND 266. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 135 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 75 AND 95. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND! TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE TORNADOES! TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR STORM SHELTER NOW! && Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25301

2284. hurricanehunter27 03:42 GMT le 15 avril 2012
When this is over I bet we have close to 150 tornado reports. Close to 1000 total severe weather reports. Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

2285. RTSplayer 03:42 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Salina Cell M2 Saline KS 64 dBZ 42,000 ft. 70 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.75 in. 45 knots SW (233) Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

2286. Xyrus2000 03:42 GMT le 15 avril 2012
If the current path holds, the Wichita cell may end up hitting Emporia. Also, Salina is under threat. Member Since: 31 octobre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1016

2287. Neapolitan 03:42 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Another view of the new Salina-bound storm: Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11156

2288. FLPandhandleJG 03:42 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Here's another chaser link if u want to watch.. SwatChasers.com Hope this helps in a way.. Member Since: 15 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1997

2290. WxGeekVA 03:43 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Seems like the Wichita storm just gusted out from the RFD... Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3316

2291. ncstorm 03:43 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Building collapse containing hazardous materials in wichita.. Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 8431

2292. RTSplayer 03:44 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07: repost. I really wanna know. Does anyone know how to convert custom images into Image urls? trying to post images on the Alberto potential You have to host the images on another site. I never used that sort of thing in like 5 years, so don't ask me who to use. Most of them charge you a monthly fee. But if you search you might find a free service. Member Since: 25 janvier 2012 Posts: 27 Comments: 875

2294. 1900hurricane 03:45 GMT le 15 avril 2012
What a convective battleground! Supercells, bow echo, MCV, and cold front convection. Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

2295. TropicalAnalystwx13 03:45 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Both of you shut up and get back to the tornado outbreak ongoing. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25301

2296. hurricanehunter27 03:45 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Been almost 10 mins sense last tornado report. Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3471

2297. HurricaneTracker01 03:46 GMT le 15 avril 2012
New storms firing up over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Does anyone know if these storms could become tornadic? Member Since: 1 août 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 125

2298. Tazmanian 03:46 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Both of you shut up and get back to the tornado outbreak ongoing. LOL good one will do Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348

2300. hydrus 03:47 GMT le 15 avril 2012
New storms forming to the south west.. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14297

2301. VAbeachhurricanes 03:47 GMT le 15 avril 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: Both of you shut up and get back to the tornado outbreak ongoing. Last I checked not his blog. Anyway, hope everyone stays safe tonight nighttime tornadoes are fickle creatures. Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4801

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