Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Shaun Tanner, 06:50 GMT le 15 avril 2012 | +36 |

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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How do you know what the NAM takes it too? I didn't think the NAM ranged into the central Atlantic
Link
MARK
31.25N/51.23W
The prog charts stall the front out over txla, could
mean that areascould get 4+ inches!
It'll be clearer tomorrow on what'll happen, the system is still trying to seperate from the frontal boundary that's leaving it behind moving off east. 91L tomorrow most likely
yeah, looking better
IMO sub-tropical are not tropical, but it potentially could develop into a tropical system. That's why the NHC watches them and names them. "Potentially tropical"
I'm sure they have nothing better to do like us. :P
Not when it comes to
Like emilys tenth kid...
Numerically it was minimal but it was actually very bad in terms of damage, espcially Funso and Giovanna
I'm off to taco bell cause I am hungry...I'll be back in half an hour...
Go to the Tropical Weather page on Wunderground and scroll down till you see a link next to the models called "Cyclogenesis tracking page (NOAA/NCEP)".
Click on that.
Click on the most recent date/time on the top left.
Scroll down a full box and you will be on all the model's atlantic data.
If you like, you can look at the graphical displays, but most of them sort of suck.
Use the text display at the bottom of the chart instead.
You'll have to manually search for the latitude and longitude you are looking for and check all the data points manually, but it's a lot more precise than the stupid graphics which never seem to show all the important details.
This is what it should look like.
I got where I keep an extra copies of Wunderground open to the tropical weather page in both I.E. and Google Chrome, so I can access all the links to different tools. Different stuff runs better in different browsers.
That's true, but they are watching it... they tagged it as a "developing system" on the surface chart.
Oh come on... Jose was a Cat 5. We all know it but no one will admit it... He gets no credit for his immense power.
Most of the Hurricane Specialists will be at the AMS 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology this week.
That's understandable, but im talking like Fiji storms and such, there seem to be MANY more storms in that region last year compared to this year.
Argh EDIT: no signs of rotation in new velocity scan
Well, we know that their watching at least...
Oh definitely... It was really quiet out there
Yeah, that Emily was one heck of a birthmother.
Its not like the guys at the NHC are less informed than we are...they see the say model runs we see and I'll bet they are watching it like we are....they just are very conservative in their products when it comes to discussing ANY out of season tropical event.
The GFS is showing no outbreaks anywhere in its model run. It looks like we are safe for a while with a minor cool blast entering the Eastern USA next week and high pressure building across the Central Plains.
Agree.... For me Weather science should name everything that is related to climatology and then measure and acquire & store data, the same way the hurricane season is treated.
No cat 7
Yep... SPC struggled with today... You can't really blame them though because they had to focus most of their attention on yesterday
That's good as you guys need a break cause more than likely you'll have atleast a few more large outbreaks between now and June. Whats up TAwx13?
The Europeans actually name non-tropical North Atlantic lows.
I suppose the NWS catalogs all of this in computers for years and years and uses models to "post-dict" conditions to test them or something. At least I hope they do, because even if models can't use all the data now, perhaps in the future we'll have computers strong enough to crunch the entire history of weather data...
If you had enough data points and robust enough code, it might be possible to produce a self-learning weather prediction model. It is, after all, just pure mathematics.
ILC083-117-119-160145-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0093.120416T0101Z-120416T0145Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
801 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JERSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
MACOUPIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
NORTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 845 PM CDT
* AT 757 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM JERSEYVILLE TO WEST ALTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.
IMPACT...MINOR TREE DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
BROKEN.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BETHALTO...STAUNTON...CARLINVILLE...GILLESPIE...BR IGHTON...
KEMPER...DORSEY...SHIPMAN...PRAIRIETOWN...WORDEN.. .BUNKER HILL...
LIVINGSTON...WILSONVILLE...BENLD...MOUNT OLIVE...GIRARD...
FIDELITY...PIASA...MILES STATION AND MEDORA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.
&&
LAT...LON 3895 8970 3889 9007 3913 9031 3951 8971
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 230DEG 51KT 3914 9026 3892 9017
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60 MPH
$$
BRITT
Hey.
Yes they archive the data, they ran all of the 2010 and 2011 storms to test the GFDL upgrade.
I know that about tropical systems.
I'm sort of hoping they've been cataloging well, you know...everything...
Bottom of the line near the Mexico border in Texas.
Zapata TX 63 dBZ 49,000 ft. 75 kg/m² 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in. 6 knots S (172)
I don't even think it's got a warning yet.
Edit:
This could produce some freakish hail totals or rainfall totals. Moving only 6 miles per hour.
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