Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Shaun Tanner, 06:50 GMT le 15 avril 2012 | +36 |

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Bottom of the line near the Mexico border in Texas.
Zapata TX 63 dBZ 49,000 ft. 75 kg/m² 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in. 6 knots S (172)
I don't even think it's got a warning yet.
Edit:
This could produce some freakish hail totals or rainfall totals. Moving only 6 miles per hour.
Hey, Keeper. Sorry to hear of your computer woes. I got me a whole new system about a month ago, and it's awesome, especially the monitor. And today I got my income tax refund to pay for it! :-)
On topic: Keeping an eye on potential 91L because of its (limited) chance to affect Atlantic Canada.
Link
That line from the Zapata, TX to Alice, TX has up to 4.1 inches per hour rainfall rates and actual 1 hour totals, and it is almost completely stalled out.
01:42 GMT le 16 avril 2012
Talked to two of them today here in Ponte Verda Beach. They already have a rotation schedule worked out in case Alberto develops; some of them would have to go home early from the conference.
Jeff Masters
O0 Zapata TX 69 dBZ 48,000 ft. 73 kg/m² 100% Chance 100% Chance 2.75 in. 10 knots S (179)
1 P0 Jim Hogg TX 66 dBZ 42,000 ft. 60 kg/m² 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in. 19 knots SW (230)
1 R0 Jim Hogg TX 59 dBZ 43,000 ft. 28 kg/m² 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in. 0 knots new (0)
1 D1 Jim Hogg TX 62 dBZ 42,000 ft. 64 kg/m² 60% Chance 100% Chance 1.50 in. 2 knots WSW (244)
1 U4 Victoria TX 65 dBZ 44,000 ft. 51 kg/m² 60% Chance 100% Chance 1.25 in. 8 knots NW (305)
Also: I see that the deep warmth is expected to return to many of the same areas affected during the March heat wave during the 8-14 day period:
Thanks Dr. Masters!
In that case, I'll root for no development.
hey i want a heat wave the Plains will have too pay for that
4.6 inches per hour near premont, Tx!
Ridiculous.
Thanks for the info Dr. Masters
by mid may i want my 1st real heat wave
has am going too this lake on june 11th
Link
and buy that time i hop the water tempers are at lest the mid 50s hoping for the low 60s
A1 Zapata TX 69 dBZ 45,000 ft. 82 kg/m%uFFFD 100% Chance 100% Chance 4.00 in. 2 knots WSW (239)
1 T1 Zapata TX 65 dBZ 48,000 ft. 74 kg/m%uFFFD 90% Chance 100% Chance 2.50 in. 12 knots WSW (251)
1 P0 Jim Hogg TX 66 dBZ 40,000 ft. 66 kg/m%uFFFD 90% Chance 100% Chance 2.25 in. 2 knots NNE (14)
1 D1 Jim Hogg TX 64 dBZ 38,000 ft. 61 kg/m%uFFFD 80% Chance 100% Chance 2.00 in. 2 knots N (352)
This is going to need a flash flood warning soon.
Edit:
its at 4.8 inches per hour now...
Was briefly at 5 inches per hour 20 minutes ago.
Might get interesting over the next few hours, doubt the actual rain we get will be anywhere near the forecast totals though.
Wasn't it supposed to be raining cats and dogs? NWS stated: 70 POP. Austin at 100 POP. Nada Zip...
and now I'm back...
Drought may be coming back
Corpus measure it as 5.5 inches 1 hour running total.
Brownsville gives 5.8 inches 1 hour running total.
Most I've ever seen on a radar estimate.
Don't know if Corpus and Brownsville radars are just hot or what, Houston radar shows less near Victoria for 1 hr running totals. In fact the Houston radar is always less aggressive on echos and running totals period.
The line is only moving 2 knots.
It seems to have almost unlimited moisture available.
VIL is just as high as before it even started raining there.
It's possible the radars are looking too high and looking directly at hail cores or something...
...but the brownsville radar should have an un-obstructed view of all the cells, since it doesn't have to look "through" any of them to see the others.
LOL They just reinstated drought restrictions. Despite it being the 4th wettest Jan-Mar in history. Oh well....
Flash Flood warning just went up for the Zapata cell.
The cells to the north are weakening and haven't rained quite as much, but they may get a warning too.
Edit:
Continues with 5.8inch per hour running total.
Has 7.6inch storm total now.
Edit:
VIL is higher than when the storm started!
A1 65 dBZ 51,000 ft. 82 kg/m² 90% chance 100% chance 2.25 in. 2 knots WNW (294)
Z0 65 dBZ 41,000 ft. 60 kg/m² 60% chance 100% chance 1.50 in. 10 knots NNE (25)
1 P0 65 dBZ 38,000 ft. 60 kg/m² 60% chance 100% chance 1.25 in. 14 knots NE (36)
1 H1 64 dBZ 49,000 ft. 79 kg/m² 80% chance 100% chance 2.00 in. 6 knots NE (54)
passed 8 inches total since past edit.
0.4 inches per radar frame now...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
904 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018 -019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-0 99-161200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
904 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY DAMAGE REPORTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS..
$$
TES
TXC505-160430-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FF.W.0001.120416T0223Z-120416T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
923 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ZAPATA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
* AT 922 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS
INDICATED TORRENTIAL RAIN OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR FROM SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR.
OTHER LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALEJANDRENAS AND LOPENO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS TO RISE.
LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT
ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES
AWAY.
DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!
&&
LAT...LON 2693 9902 2679 9895 2671 9899 2664 9920
2667 9921 2672 9921 2675 9925 2679 9925
2682 9927 2685 9928
$$
64
Incredible.
I mean even if it's over-estimating it by half, that would still be 3 inches per hour...
Yes,that is correct. I brought this topic as is a good one to have a civil discussion.
N1 68 dBZ 45,000 ft. 76 kg/m² 90% chance 100% chance 2.50 in. 8 knots N (6)
1 A1 67 dBZ 50,000 ft. 80 kg/m² 90% chance 100% chance 2.25 in. 10 knots NW (315)
1 H1 64 dBZ 47,000 ft. 79 kg/m² 90% chance 100% chance 2.25 in. 6 knots NNW (343)
Edit:
At least they're moving 8kts now, instead of 2kts.
Apparantly THEY think it's gonna seperate from the frontal boundary, it just has to get them to BELIEVE that it's gonna become Alberto.
TXC247-160500-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FF.W.0004.120416T0252Z-120416T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
952 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JIM HOGG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
* AT 951 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS
INDICATED TORRENTIAL RAIN OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR FROM SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR.
OTHER LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...RANDADO
AND RURAL AREAS ALONG FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1017.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS TO RISE.
DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!
&&
LAT...LON 2727 9852 2726 9853 2723 9849 2715 9849
2714 9847 2708 9847 2688 9871 2704 9895
2729 9852
$$
64
Frontal surface low at 1200Z TAFB was 1013 mb
Frontal surface low at 1800Z TAFB was 1012 mb
Frontal surface low at 0000Z TAFB was 1011 mb
Looks like our pre-subtropical cyclone is deepening by 1 mb every six hours so far. This deepening rate could accelerate as the cut-off upper trough continues to amplify, which in turn will increase the divergence over the surface low.
Shallow warm-core is good enough for the NHC. They'll call it Sub-tropical so as long as it's a warm core they'll designate it, or recognize that it has potential. It'll be a close call, Around Tuesday is when it should be at it's best if it's not designated by Wednesday night, then it has no chance of becoming our Alberto.
Hah...and this from the guy who reported bitterly earlier that the cap was firmly in place...LOL. Hopefully you will get some needed in rain in Houston.
Did the Victoria or Goliad supercell ever get tornado warned? From the discussions here...sounds like it didn't...
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