Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Shaun Tanner, 06:50 GMT le 15 avril 2012 | +36 |

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
624 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0539 AM TORNADO 1 N PORTLAND 27.89N 97.33W
04/16/2012 SAN PATRICIO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
DAMAGE TO HOMES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF PORTLAND. FENCES AND
TREE LIMBS DOWN.
0544 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 SE WOODSBORO 28.20N 97.28W
04/16/2012 REFUGIO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
WATER OVER THE ROAD ON FM 1360 AND ARANSAS RIVER ROAD
BETWEEN WOODSBORO AND BAYVIEW.
0544 AM TORNADO GREGORY 27.92N 97.29W
04/16/2012 SAN PATRICIO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
DAMAGE TO COTTON GIN NEAR GREGORY ALONG WITH POWERLINES
DOWN.
That means its forming good right?
Still completely frontal in nature it appears. Give it time though, these things don't usually appear overnight....
On another note, looks like my area might hit 90 degrees today, which is absolutely insane for this time of year. This heat is also contributing to a lot of drought, as the lawn is still mostly dormant, even though it should be growing season.
"Boston's record high for April 16 is 84 degrees, set in 2003," says weather.com Senior Meteorologist Jon Erdman. "This is definitely in jeopardy Monday."
Today: Sunny, with a high near 88. South wind between 8 and 16 mph.
The marathon's going to be brutal today... We certainly won't be seeing any course records like last year.
Euro
Its still got a front going but it looks like it has better circulation.
Too far north and the air is too cool to get anything tropical out of this. Now if this was near Bermuda then we could be looking at Alberto as the waters are a little warmer.
amazing video thanks for sharing!
The cities of Fayetteville, Jacksonville, Goldsboro, and Wilson would all be hit by an EF2 or higher tornado.
April 14-16, 2011 was the deadliest outbreak since the Super Tuesday outbreak of 2008, but it would soon be surpassed not even two weeks later by 2011's Super Outbreak. If only we had knew what was about to happen...
I'm surprised none were rated higher than EF-3. Any thoughs on the models for this weekend as it looks active for the coastal SE US?
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MCMULLEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
* UNTIL 745 AM CDT
* AT 703 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN MCMULLEN COUNTY...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TILDEN...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL CENTRAL MCMULLEN COUNTY...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
.LOW 33N48W 1007 MB MOVING NW 10 KT. WITHIN 480 NM N AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
540 NM N SEMCIRCLE WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST LOW 34N49W 1004 MB. WITHIN 300 NM N AND NW
QUADRANTS WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N53W 1000 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM
31N TO 42N BETWEEN 40W AND 59W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16
FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 34N58W 1005 MB. FROM 31N TO 39N BETWEEN
40W AND 64W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
Link
Separate from that front Bert!!
Great and timely update.
I actually was on the road to Charlotte that day..went through some of the worst storms I have ever seen..my radio in the car constantly went off with Emergency warnings..people are still rebuilding in Bladen County where three people died that day
Our average low isn't even below freezing anymore.
Oh well, I only have to go to school 3 days this week! :D
There's two big cold fronts attached though.
It appears it's trying to detach, and will probably do so later this week as it moves southward towards Bermuda. This is very similar to Tropical Storm Ana's development in 2003, except this system is moving in the opposite direction.
I agree the southward movement should help this become STS Alberto. Well see!
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 722 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
727 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 800 AM CDT
* AT 724 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
INGLESIDE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF PORTLAND...SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARANSAS PASS...
PALM HARBOR...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
We certainty will. The phase diagrams indicate that this will become shallow-warm core on it's eastward track. While climatology is against it, it is entire possible our first named storm of the year will form tomorrow or Wednesday.
Any idea on if it's cold core or shallow warm core yet?
Is part of ITCZ according to them.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES S OF THE
EQUATOR NEAR 27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 20W TO ACROSS
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 10N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 47W-55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 4N27W TO 2N31W.
Thanks!
Big increase it appears across the eastern Pacific. Also look what it's doing to the MJO. Folks this could be bad for the US as this could be the year for big Gulf & Caribbean hurricanes.
SST's won't support a warm core/ subtropical storm
The CMC is pretty much the only one thinking warm core though... GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET all say cold core
That's exactly it. People always seem to say that "El Nino = bust season" but it just increases the chances of a bust season. El Nino doesn't mean that a perfect storm of events can't happen and produce a 200mph monster, just decreases the chances.
Possibly...one of the key factors is going to be wind shear
2011
2012
Agreed. That was just yesterday's CMC reposted. Here's 06ZGFS
Checking those water temps..
00ZCMC has it more warm core but shallow, the SST are just as cold. There are Extratropical warm core off Greenland at times but they don't get invest or storm statues cause the SST are too cold. I'm not too excited~ little chance for a subtropical something, about no chance of something fully tropical.
After this weekend(behind the front) it appears Orlando will enjoy highs in the low 70's with lows in the 40's/50's.
This has the potential to be a very dangerous year despite some already calling it a bust... We may not see very many storms but if a favorable environment (lack of shear and dry air) sets up in the Gulf and Caribbean and combines with the warm SST's we could be looking at some powerful home grown storms.
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