Weekend tornado outbreak: 1 EF-4, 2 EF-3s, 6 dead, damage near $300 million

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:09 GMT le 16 avril 2012

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Damage surveys continue in the Plains in the wake of Saturday's major tornado outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 110 preliminary tornado reports, with an additional 10 reports from Sunday. At least one tornado was a violent EF-4, which hit mostly unpopulated areas in Ellsworth County, Kansas. The only fatalities from the outbreak occurred in Woodward, Oklahoma, where an EF-3 tornado hit at night after lightning knocked out the town's tornado sirens. Six people were killed, three of them children. A preliminary rating of EF-3 has also been given to a tornado that hit the south and southeast portions of Wichita, Kansas near 10:30 pm CDT Saturday night. The tornado did significant damage to McConnell AFB and to a nearby trailer park. All of the residents of the trailer park were in the trail park's tornado shelter, which undoubtedly saved many lives. Two residents required hospitalization. Damage from the Wichita tornado has been estimated at $283 million.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of the EF-3 tornado that hit the south side of Wichita, Kansas, causing damage estimated at $283 million.


Video 1. Storm chaser video of one of Saturday's impressive tornadoes near Salina, Kansas. At about the 3 minute mark, you'll see what appear to be cows moving very fast in a mighty tail wind.


Video 2. Storm chaser video of the nighttime Wichita, Kansas tornado of April 14, 2012.

New dire language in tornado warnings
National Weather Service offices in several states in the Plains are experimenting this year with new wording in public advisories when a particularly dangerous tornado has touched down. If spotters confirm that a large and damaging tornado is on the ground, the NWS has the option of including some rather dire wording to get the public to take action. About 3/4 of all tornado warnings are false alarms. This primarily occurs because the NWS will issue a warning for a rotating thunderstorm spotted on radar, and these thunderstorms don't always have funnel clouds that reach to the ground. But when spotters actually verify that a tornado is on the ground, and that tornado has a long history of causing damage, issuance of one the new direly-worded advisories may help give the public the message that this tornado is not going to be a false alarm and they better take it seriously. Such an advisory was issued for Saturday's Wichita, Kansas tornado, which turned out to be an EF-3 that caused major but not catastrophic damage. The dire wording of the advisory predicted the type of damage associated with a violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornado, "with complete devastation likely." The damage from this tornado fell short of that mark, but I believe it was a reasonable usage of the new type of advisory:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1033 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL BUTLER AND EASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR EAST WICHITA...

AT 1031 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE...VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MCCONNELL AIR FORCE BASE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...SPOTTER CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. YOU COULD BE KILLED IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELL
BUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROM THEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASS DEVASTATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY MAKING THE AREA UNRECOGNIZABLE
TO SURVIVORS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...PARK CITY...NORTHEAST WICHITA...ANDOVER...BEL AIRE...KECHI...JABARA AIRPORT AND BENTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WITH COMPLETE DEVASTATION LIKELY. YOU COULD BE KILLED IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. DO NOT DELAY...SEEK SHELTER NOW! IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM OF THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STRUCTURE...OR IF TIME ALLOWS...CONSIDER MOVING TO AN UNDERGROUND SHELTER ELSEWHERE. MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS WILL OFFER NO SHELTER FROM THIS TORNADO.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

Jeff Masters

Night tornado (Andrewbre)
Night tornado in Manchester,OK
Night tornado
Lightning over Houston (SurfYak)
A thunderstorm passes through Houston early Monday morning with lots of amazing lightning. I'm probably going to regret getting up to take this photo later today. :). For my live webcam view approxiamtely where this was taken (you can see the webcam in the photo), Click here. For more of my photography, visit my Flickr page.
Lightning over Houston
()
Storm Damage (dhennem)
Damage from the storm that came through Thurman, Iowa last night. TV says 70% to 90% of the town is destroyed.
Storm Damage

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How is that possible when the GFS goes out to 384 hours and the ECMWF goes out to 240 hours? lol.


Because the Euro's 8 day forecast is actually better than the GFS' 7 day forecast.


The way these models work, if you are off by a tiny margin each day that adds up over time. By the time you get to the 7 day range, the Euro is literally 1 full day ahead in skill.

The maximum length you run the model for is not important if it the model is already falling behind in skill after just a day or two.

All of that said, the GFS and other U.S. models, both global and hurricane models, are still far better today than it was even just a few years ago.

If you read the paper put out by NHC on the improvements of hurricane forecast skill, for example, they've improved the skill by about 3 days worth, which is to say the 7th day forecast in 2011 had about as much skill as the 3rd or 4th day had 20 years ago, and the 48 hour forecast has about as much skill as the 24 hour forecast had 20 years ago.
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Whats with the bad blood...can't we all agree to disagree?
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8000
Quoting Xyrus2000:


That report is someone posting nonsense on the web. Is there a peer reviewed research paper on the topic? Perhaps in one of the well respected scientific journals like Nature?

Anyone with an internet connection can post up whatever nonsense they want. I can post a picture of Martha Stewart ridding a Chimera and throwing Twinkies at garden gnomes on that site. That doesn't lend it a shred of credibility.


They are simply observations, my friend. I don't understand all the vitriol and ad hominem attacks for simply presenting some rather curious observations.
Member Since: 4 Mars 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 32
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow TCHP has really went through the roof.Any who God has answered my prayers!.And rain is coming for us!.On Wen,Sat,and Sunday!!!.Woot woot!.

happy for you...whats up washingtonian115?
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8000
I've been late getting my daily tropical update on the Atlantic tropics tonight...busy at work and then power was out briefly at my apartment this afternoon from strong winds here at the Great Lakes.

I'll be posting it in the next hour...can read it in the morning if that's too late....
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Quoting Chicklit:

That's a likely scenario, Nigel.
It's been very dry here for quite a long time.

I hope you guys get some well needed rain soon!
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8000
Quoting Skyepony:
High winds slowed sown the readying of Discovery for the flight to D.C...but she's prepared to go anyway. Said good-bye today. I should get more pics tomorrow, with a better camera.


She'll be doing a low flyover of NASA Goddard tomorrow. I'll be out in front of Building 8 with just about everyone else there taking pictures and videos as it comes over. If I get any good ones I can post them up.

I'm hoping it will be a little late as I have a telecon just before the flyover is supposed to happen. :P
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hmm...straight winds at the surface. Very slim chance of a tornado.

If that weren't enough, instability is forecast to be meager. While I understand that low instability can support significant severe weather as long as there is strong wind shear, there isn't. In fact, wind shear is very weak.


Although sometimes events can occur in situations that appear on the surface to have not-so-much directional shear. The speed shear between the surface and 500mb can be high enough with just a small amount of turning that you end up with similar curvature in your hodograph to the "ideal" situation that you mentioned.
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Quoting wxmojo:
Forensic Analysis of the Tornado Outbreak of April 14-15, 2012

Abstract
The weather system producing the tornado outbreak on April 14-15, 2012 is documented using GOES infrared satellite imagery. Sixteen hours of images at half hour intervals are sequentially arranged to show the development and evolution of this system. A forensic analysis is performed using correlation grids, which are highly structured collections of regular geometric shapes spatially correlated to weather features. It is implicitly demonstrated that correlation grids appear to coexist with naturally evolving weather formations. The origin, cause, and actual existence of correlation grids remain unknown.

The report can be found at askwhy333.minus.com


That report is someone posting nonsense on the web. Is there a peer reviewed research paper on the topic? Perhaps in one of the well respected scientific journals like Nature?

Anyone with an internet connection can post up whatever nonsense they want. I can post a picture of Martha Stewart ridding a Chimera and throwing Twinkies at garden gnomes on that site. That doesn't lend it a shred of credibility.
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Link
Made a new tropics page
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Quoting Articuno:

It's been so dry, haven't had a decent rainfall for at least 2-3 weeks..


The drought monitor has been expanding quite rapidly in the northeast over the last two weeks. This week should show significant growth as well. Central and southern New York made it up into the lower 90's today.. earliest 90 reading recorded here.

But this is from the Albany, NY forecast discussion:
"SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WET AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
DOMINATE...AS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND THE
H500 CUTOFF. THE GFS IS FURTHER INLAND AND WEST WITH THE MAIN SFC
CYCLONE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHERE THE ECMWF AND HPC
GUIDANCE HAVE A COASTAL WAVE LIFTING N/NE FROM THE CAROLINAS ON
SUNDAY WITH A DEEP TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF
IT. STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION AND QG LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND
THE COASTAL CYCLONE COULD BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL.
WE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY
MONDAY...UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THIS WIDESPREAD PCPN
POTENTIAL. THIS COULD BE THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL THE FCST
AREA NEEDS AFTER THE PERSISTENT DRY SPELL OVER THE PAST MONTH OR
SO.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE DAMP AIR MASS."

Went back and checked...
last time we received more than half an inch of rain in a single storm was the February 29/March 1 storm And the last time we received more than an inch of rain in a single storm was on December 7, 2011.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
You'd be surprised on what Florida can pull out of it's metaphorical rear end even if the instability is low with a little day time heating.



Not exactly, intense heating in Florida raises instability significantly. The reason why we get so many powerful thunderstorms during the rain season is that surface based instability can become very high due to lots of sunshine, warm water temps, and very high low level moisture. Its similar to how tropical regions produce powerful tropical cyclones in that the warm oceans during the wet season months allow massive amounts thermal energy and low level moisture to be swept overland along sea breeze fronts and the sea breeze fronts help to act like frontal boundaries, forcing all the moisture and energy upward fueling powerful thunderstorms. Florida's intense sunshine helps to fuel an additional maxima of energy over land during the day and also powers the strength of the sea breezes. You could say that Florida depends on large amounts of sun to get large amounts of thunderstorms, and thus large amounts of instability :)

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Good night all!
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Seems like (hope not too late)Unit 4 works will begin...


General Plan and Start of Main Work of the Cover for Fuel Removal of Unit 4 in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station
Source: TEPCO Press Release
Date: Apr 16, 2012

Based on Mid-to-Long-Term Roadmap towards the Decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Unit 1-4 which was announced on Dec. 21, 2011, we started the preparation work for the installation of the cover for fuel removal of Unit 4 on Mar. 23, 2012.

We would like to inform that we will start the main work for the installation of the cover for fuel removal on Apr. 17.

As the first step of the main work, we will conduct the foundation improvement work in order to strengthen the foundation which supports the foundation of the frame for supporting the crane which is a part of the cover for fuel removal.

At the same time, we will conduct the countermeasure to prevent rainwater from penetrating into Unit 4 Reactor Building.

Attachment: General plan of the cover for fuel removal of Unit 4 in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (PDF 121KB)

Image of the cover for fuel removal of Unit 4 in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (This picture shows only a image of the general plan, therefore it can differ from the actual structure.)


http://enenews.com/tepco-foundation-improvement-w ork-begins-tomorrow-at-reactor-no-4-also-trying-to -prevent-rainwater-penetration-photos-english


This isn't a weather related blog!
Not, Not, Not!
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Main flaw was the notion that finding a disposal plan for spent rods would be quick and easy. There are plenty of similar sites scattered round the globe.


And unfortunately that's because very few places have the facilities for recycling spent fuel rods or allow the practice to begin with. So instead of being reprocessed into more fuel, they're stored in cooling ponds or waste sites. And since they aren't reprocessed the spent rods remain radioactive for thousands of years as they contain elements with long half-lives (highly radioactive materials have short half-lives so they don't stick around long).
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all
I heard that the GFS is predicting an tornado outbreak in about a week....is this true?

Who told you that? Other than a few isolated severe thunderstorms pretty much everyday over the next week, nothing significant lies on the horizon.

291. TampaSpin 12:25 AM GMT on April 17, 2012 +0
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who told you that? Other than a few isolated severe thunderstorms pretty much everyday over the next week, nothing significant lies on the horizon.



NOT TRUE ....

295. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:28 AM GMT on April 17, 2012 +1
Quoting TampaSpin:



NOT TRUE ....

Completely true. I can do a detailed analysis of what the GFS shows if you think I am giving out inaccurate information.



LOL....good nite everyone!


Noticed he never used tornadoes when he first mentioned it? He stuck to his statement. I used to think you were a good guy to go to when I first joined here, now you've just changed.
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Quoting presslord:


actually....my toe is, in fact, a radio...


I ALWAYS see dead people
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


There are a number of user who won't ignore someone making claims such as these. These members help keep the board from becoming a conspiracy fueled, burn-the-witch, I-see-dead-people, my-toe-is-a-radio-to-aliens nut fest.

If these "correlation grids" make useful scientifically valid and verified claims, then kindly provide the source for this information. Otherwise, it's little more than pseudo-scientific nonsense.


actually....my toe is, in fact, a radio...
Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
Quoting washingtonian115:
We can get really bad humidity even into the fall at times.Even this winter at times when it was warm outside usually after a rain storm it was humid.XD.We really couldn't escape it this year.


Oh yes Ik, it can get just as bad there as here no doubt
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Quoting caneswatch:


He used slim chance from the beginning. I'm not gonna respond to your last sentence, sounds like a troll.


Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all
I heard that the GFS is predicting an tornado outbreak in about a week....is this true?

Who told you that? Other than a few isolated severe thunderstorms pretty much everyday over the next week, nothing significant lies on the horizon.

291. TampaSpin 12:25 AM GMT on April 17, 2012 +0
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who told you that? Other than a few isolated severe thunderstorms pretty much everyday over the next week, nothing significant lies on the horizon.



NOT TRUE ....

295. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:28 AM GMT on April 17, 2012 +1
Quoting TampaSpin:



NOT TRUE ....

Completely true. I can do a detailed analysis of what the GFS shows if you think I am giving out inaccurate information.



LOL....good nite everyone!
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I watched a real good show last night (On Demand) which was the 2011 Nova Special on Tornadoes which focused on the Joplin disaster and had lots of folks on from SPC and U of Oklahoma. Best "graphic" explanation of why tornado outbreaks are so devastating in the "alley" because of the convergence of the cool air from fronts coming over the Rockies into the plains colliding basically with the warm air flowing in from the Gulf; bad combination when combined with the relative jet stream location like we saw last week with that smaller section of the jet over Texas with the storms. We have had several frontal outbreaks over the years in Florida, and many of the worst ones have occurred in Central Florida, but it is not as bad as those long track monsters in the plains. In fact, some of our most active tornado events are not from winter/spring frontal events but from land falling hurricanes in the NE quadrant. Hurricanes are no fun but I really don't think that I could live in tornado alley.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Ehh you don't want the humidity we get down here on the gulf coast constantly, y'all get it occasionally but we have to deal with it DAILY.
We can get really bad humidity even into the fall at times.Even this winter at times when it was warm outside usually after a rain storm it was humid.XD.We really couldn't escape it this year.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
But the GFS is good with pin pointing cape verde hurricane.I've seen it predict storms two weeks out in advance and nail it.


its not a bad model at all..the Euro just outperforms it is all I am saying
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Instability in Florida lies between 250-750 j/kg according to the GFS. I'm not sure if this is considered sufficient in Florida as they seem to have different thermodynamics than the rest of the USA, but without strong wind shear, instability is very low.



Well sometimes you have to look at the overall consensus of model trends rather than exact number outputs, I'm not sure why the GFS would be showing such low numbers like that considering most models agree on colder air aloft moving overhead, it even looks like the GFS is showing placement of colder air aloft moving in, which makes it even stranger.

Yes Florida can have different thermodynamics but its probably the opposite of what you may be thinking in that generally speaking higher instability is present during severe events than what it might take in many areas. CAPE of 4000 to 5000 is pretty common during the wet season months when we experience more tropical weather, although in this case with a frontal system in the Spring the thermodynamics would be pretty close to that of the plains or ohio valley to some degree. Colder air aloft in Florida is relative, what might be called cold air aloft here might seem like relatively warm air aloft for a region Oklahoma or Kansas.


Anyways though, considering what overall models are showing including the GFS I'm very surprised at those low numbers, I would expect them to be much higher than that if the current model trends continue, I think it might be an error in the model honestly. I'm not saying we are gonna have some huge outbreak but levels that low don't seem to support the heavy convection thew model is outputting over Central and North Florida, which is why I believe it may be an error.

CAPE is around 2000 to 3000 J/kg right now over the south and Central gulf, I would expect this to build and spread toward Florida into this weekend.






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Quoting wxmojo:


There are tons of different projections to mitigate spherical distortions. What projection algorithm is being used on the images being presented, I know not. Nevertheless, the rectangles and circles inarguably align with certain weather features (though some will argue none the less).

If these illustrations are sowing confusion for you, then hit the "ignore user" action for wxmojo, and I will be forever out of your thoughts.


There are a number of user who won't ignore someone making claims such as these. These members help keep the board from becoming a conspiracy fueled, burn-the-witch, I-see-dead-people, my-toe-is-a-radio-to-aliens nut fest.

If these "correlation grids" make useful scientifically valid and verified claims, then kindly provide the source for this information. Otherwise, it's little more than pseudo-scientific nonsense.
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But the GFS is good with pin pointing cape verde hurricane.I've seen it predict storms two weeks out in advance and nail it.
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Quoting caneswatch:


He used slim chance from the beginning. I'm not gonna respond to your last sentence, sounds like a troll.

Tim and I apparently have a long history. But that doesn't matter, I really don't care what he thinks sadly.

Back to the weather.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
well Florida is the lightning capital of the United States.All though D.C has had some rough Thunderstorms already this year.So..it really does feel like Florida.Seems like I don't even need to move down there now.


Ehh you don't want the humidity we get down here on the gulf coast constantly, y'all get it occasionally but we have to deal with it DAILY.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You act like the ECMWF isn't surpassed by other models some times. The Euro is not god, although it does perform very well. It performed poorly with the March 2 event until a few days before the event, while the GFS nailed it over a week out.


no one saying the Euro is god but it is a MUCH better model than the GFS..we werent talking about other models..we were talking about the GFS vs the Euro..someone posted an article here last week on its performance against the GFS and well the GFS paled in comparism.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



NOW your using the words SLIM CHANCE i see! You see the EURO still shows a Dip and not a Cut off...so for you say earlier that it was completely inaccurate i just said that is a false statement....maybe your choice of words needs to improve.



He used slim chance from the beginning. I'm not gonna respond to your last sentence, sounds like a troll.
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well Florida is the lightning capital of the United States.All though D.C has had some rough Thunderstorms already this year.So..it really does feel like Florida.Seems like I don't even need to move down there now.
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Quoting ncstorm:


its possible because anything past 144 hours on ANY model is subject but I know you guys arent saying the GFS is better than the Euro? really? LOL!!

You act like the ECMWF isn't surpassed by other models some times. The Euro is not god, although it does perform very well. It performed poorly with the March 2 event until a few days before the event, while the GFS nailed it over a week out.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Even though I disagree with who you listen to, you stick to everything you say weather-wise. You may be a kid but I don't really care about yours or anyones age, especially Grothar's LOL


Haha good chuckle!!

I wont go into RL:P

Thanks I appreciate that.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How is that possible when the GFS goes out to 384 hours and the ECMWF goes out to 240 hours? lol.


its possible because anything past 144 hours on ANY model is subject but I know you guys arent saying the GFS is better than the Euro? really? LOL!!
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Quoting ncstorm:


um..no it hasnt..the euro is always the first model to pick up the threats..GFS jumps on the bandwagon much later

The GFS has been very good with the recent tornado outbreaks and seems to be outperforming the Euro on the area being monitored in the Atlantic
Historically though, yes, the Euro is better, but the GFS is on a hot streak

Night all.
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting ncstorm:


um..no it hasnt..the euro is always the first model to pick up the threats..GFS jumps on the bandwagon much later

How is that possible when the GFS goes out to 384 hours and the ECMWF goes out to 240 hours? lol.
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You'd be surprised on what Florida can pull out of it's metaphorical rear end even if the instability is low with a little day time heating.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
With this insane pattern that we've had all winter-spring it feels like Florida weather.The people will be sick of summer by as early as June XD.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Didn't know we were causin this many problems:/

This rain won't stop, and it looks like a surface low is in the gulf heading our way. I hope Florida gets a lot of this lord knows they need it.


Even though I disagree with who you listen to, you stick to everything you say weather-wise. You may be a kid but I don't really care about yours or anyones age, especially Grothar's LOL
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Lately the GFS has dominated though.


um..no it hasnt..the euro is always the first model to pick up the threats..GFS jumps on the bandwagon much later
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Quoting ncstorm:


the euro is a better model than the GFS


Yes I know, especially when it comes to the Upper atmosphere, I was just pointing out the differences
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Instability is forecast to be meager? You might want to rethink that statement, that's not what the NWS seems to think, you are correct about wind shear and lack of tornado threat but if current model trends continue there will be plenty of instability present around here in Central Florida this weekend, colder air aloft will be moving atop a very warm and increasingly moist air mass, that's all that you need to know.


Of course I don't think we see a severe weather outbreak, shear doesn't look impressive at all right now, and there probably will be a lack of surface convergence/lift. That has been a consistently lacking factor around here in the last couple months.


Furthermore there are several days left till this system arrives, so getting in a heated argument probably isn't worth it, just sayin :)


Agree :)

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Quoting ncstorm:


the euro is a better model than the GFS

Lately the GFS has dominated though.
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
Quoting weatherh98:


Did you see the skew-t chart, the instability is fairly low and there isn't much churning in the atmosphere to get thinks spinning.

Also, it's all in the model you use.

He used the gfs and you used the euro.


the euro is a better model than the GFS
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Instability is forecast to be meager? You might want to rethink that statement, that's not what the NWS seems to think, you are correct about wind shear and lack of tornado threat but if current model trends continue there will be plenty of instability present around here in Central Florida this weekend, colder air aloft will be moving atop a very warm and increasingly moist air mass, that's all that you need to know.


Of course I don't think we see a severe weather outbreak, shear doesn't look impressive at all right now, and there probably will be a lack of surface convergence/lift. That has been a consistently lacking factor around here in the last couple months.


Furthermore there are several days left till this system arrives, so getting in a heated argument probably isn't worth it, just sayin :)

Instability in Florida lies between 250-750 j/kg according to the GFS. I'm not sure if this is considered sufficient in Florida as they seem to have different thermodynamics than the rest of the USA, but without strong wind shear, instability is very low.

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I would wait on the 6z and 12z runs of the GFS..the 18Z and 00z runs have been notorius in putting out poorer runs..Lets wait and see what the 6z/12z runs say about the severe weather threat supposedly this weekend.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep..gotta run....good to see ya weathermanwannabe! Have a good evening my friend!


You too.............
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Quoting TampaSpin:



NOW your using the words SLIM CHANCE i see! You see the EURO still shows a Dip and not a Cut off...so for you say earlier that it was completely inaccurate i just said that is a false statement....maybe your choice of words needs to improve.



Did you see the skew-t chart, the instability is fairly low and there isn't much churning in the atmosphere to get thinks spinning.

Also, it's all in the model you use.

He used the gfs and you used the euro.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

and I know now why I don't associate with you anymore, Tim. Here, let me be the better person and give my evidence we won't have any significant severe weather events over the next week with this upcoming longwave trough instead of just blatantly accusing people on being inaccurate.

You see this cutoff low?



Significant severe weather events are almost non-existent with cutoff lows due to the fact that they have very little to no surface reflection. In order for a tornado to form, you need good turning with height. Ideal tornado conditions are winds coming from the south at the 850 mbar level and winds from the west at 200 mbar level. Now let's take a look at a sounding from Florida.



Hmm...straight winds at the surface. Very slim chance of a tornado.

If that weren't enough, instability is forecast to be meager. While I understand that low instability can support significant severe weather as long as there is strong wind shear, there isn't. In fact, wind shear is very weak.


Instability is forecast to be meager? You might want to rethink that statement, that's not what the NWS seems to think, you are correct about wind shear and lack of tornado threat but if current trends continue there will be decent instability present around here in Central Florida this weekend, colder air aloft will be moving atop a very warm and increasingly moist air mass, that's all that you need to know.


Of course I don't think we see a severe weather outbreak, shear doesn't look impressive at all right now, and there probably will be a lack of surface convergence/lift. That has been a consistently lacking factor around here in the last couple months.


Furthermore, there are several days left till this system arrives, so getting in a heated argument probably isn't worth it, just sayin :)
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Quoting TampaSpin:



NOW your using the words SLIM CHANCE i see! You see the EURO still shows a Dip and not a Cut off...so for you say earlier that it was completely inaccurate i just said that is a false statement....maybe your choice of words needs to improve.


Actually he said very slim chance... There's no shear, that's the problem- Maybe just conducive for a couple weak tornadoes... Plus this thing is a ways off so plenty of time for change.
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
330. skook
slim chance = tornado outbreak?...






Always spreading the DOOM message...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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