Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting reedzone:
Slight risk has adjusted north of Tampa and Orlando, but still south of Jacksonville.

Yeah, little change... If today's model runs so far are confirmed by the next set then it will make a more noticeable shift

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
115 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

FLZ043-048-049-051-052-055>057-060>062-201830-
SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-H ARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-
115 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFFECTED
AREAS CAN EXPECT BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS.
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.

$$

05

Still just 15% probability:

SPC AC 201718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 70 KT
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE FL KEYS BY 00Z. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEEPEN OVER THE ERN GULF...WITH SLY FLOW MAINTAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS WILL OCCUR
AS A RESULT...THROUGH THE PERIOD INCLUDING OVERNIGHT.

TO THE N...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
FROM ERN PA INTO WRN VA AND NC.

...FL...
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL INCREASE ACROSS FL DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN GULF
AND THE UPPER LOW NEARS. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INSTABILITY OVERALL
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE...BUT HODOGRAPHS WILL LENGTHEN AND
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION. CONVERGENCE MAY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG A
BOUNDARY OVER THE N CNTRL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...WITH SPORADIC
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS
MAY BE WITH THE VORT MAX...PERHAPS IN AN ARCING LINE...AS IT MOVES
ASHORE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED COUPLETS
WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

...WRN NC...VA...MD...ERN PA AND NJ...
SCATTERED RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG A COLD FRONT AS
IT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS. DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE MARGINAL...AND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...WITH
GUSTY WINDS LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 04/20/2012

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1726Z (1:26PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yeah, little change... If today's model runs so far are confirmed by the next set then it will make a more noticeable shift

I agree

12z CMC

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
FLZ042-048>051-055-056-060-061-201800-
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CRYSTAL RIVER PTSUNNY 79 68 69 W8 29.92S
INVERNESS PTSUNNY 84 64 51 W5 29.91F
BROOKSVILLE PTSUNNY 82 67 60 VRB3 29.92F
CLEARWATER CLOUDY 82 66 58 SW14 29.92S
TAMPA INTL MOSUNNY 85 69 58 S13 29.92F
TAMPA EXEC MOSUNNY 88 66 48 SW12G17 29.91F
PLANT CITY PTSUNNY 86 68 54 W8 29.93S
MACDILL AFB SUNNY 83 72 68 W15 29.92S
PETER O KNIGHT SUNNY 86 64 48 SW14 29.92S
ST PETERSBURG PTSUNNY 80 70 71 SW10 29.91S
SARASOTA SUNNY 83 69 62 SW13 29.91S
STATION/POSITION TEMP WIND PRES WAVE SWELL
AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER HT/PER
(F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S) (FT/S)
CEDAR KEY 75 220/ 4/ 5 1014.0S
28.5N 84.5W 75 75 CALM / 2 1013.3F 1/ 5 2/ 5
27.3N 84.2W 77 N/A 1/ 4
VENICE 77 82 190/ 10/ 11 1012.7F

Quoting reedzone:
Slight risk has adjusted north of Tampa and Orlando, but still south of Jacksonville.

I still say that if the exact same dynamics were coming together somewhere else in the CONUS, where there is land, weather stations and the ability to gather real time data at the surface and aloft upstream, as opposed to a 1000 mile wide expanse of sea water (GOM) to the west, we'd be seeing a moderate risk outlook by now.

Because this is the Florida peninsula we are talking about, there is just essentially a big black hole out there to the west and this always prompts the SPC to go very conservative in their severe Wx potential forecast for Florida. The only possible exception to this rule is when a strong TS or a hurricane is forecast to make landfall. In those cases there is pretty much no denying that conditions will be extreme.

But when it comes to the more common winter and springtime storm systems such as this one, you will never or rarely ever see them place any part of the FL peninsula into anything above the slight risk category. Somehow this needs to change in the future because Florida weather can get just a rough as Georgia (for example) weather during a severe weather setup.

With as many as 20 million people present in Florida at any given time, including tourists and part time residents, my opinion is that there is a big gap in the forecasting ability when it comes to situations like this.

By the way, the tornado chances for today have gone up:

Quoting Xyrus2000:


:D

Magnetic pole reversals don't flip the planet, though that would certainly cause some interesting effects.

I never said it would flip the planet.

12Z CMC Precip Map

Quoting sunlinepr:
TODAY'S FUKUSHIMA UPDATE

MSNBC: Fukushima radiation “much higher than expected” says biologist — Negative effects to happen quicker than at Chernobyl… and be worse

Scientists are focusing on Japan’s Fukushima area after a study published this week found an alarming development at another nuclear disaster site — Chernobyl.
The proportion of female birds has fallen off since the 1986 disaster at Chernobyl, the study found [...]
[Study co-author Tim Mousseau, a University of South Carolina biologist is] expecting even worse results at Fukushima.



Fukushima Investigation: “Within one day complete meltdown and melt through occurred” — “There is no way that gov’t did not know this”- VIDEO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1pHimEuNpM&fe atur e=player_embedded#!


Gundersen: Cesium-134 and -137 detected in Southern California pollen sample — “When you find them both together that’s a Fukushima signature” (VIDEO)
Published: April 19th, 2012 at 12:41 pm ET

Sorry, kinda got bored and annoyed with their incompetence, and quit watching after 2 or 3 minutes of them screwing around with the microphone and other crap.

They should learn to edit a video.

Thunderstorms firing fast around C FL. Atmosphere is very unstable today.

Almost looks as if a warm front or stationary front is organizing across C FL and extending into the c Gulf.

Howdy Grothar.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Howdy Grothar.

Any storms by you buddy. thundering over by me on the northside of Orlando.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Any storms by you buddy. thundering over by me on the northside of Orlando.

No storms ATM, just started raining though.

658. FLWaterFront 1:35 PM EDT on April 20, 2012

You are right about common Florida T-Storms in the Summer (or frontal system storms) reaching severe limits. I was in Orlando at a Conference last August and was sitting in the lobby looking out at a nasty afternoon T-Storm. A European Family on vacation came running indoors (They were coming in from the Pool area) and the Husband came over to me to ask if this was a "Hurricane". They had never seen afternoon boomers like that where they were from..........

Afternoon, this is kind of long, but not your usual forecast, either.
1238 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND AFTERNOON SEA AND LAKE BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST BETWEEN ABOUT 3 PM AND 9 PM AS ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND INTERACTS WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ANY STORMS WHICH FORM ALONG IT.

TODAY`S STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AND COIN SIZED HAIL. ANY FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WITH STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS...ANY STORM WHICH FORMS INLAND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC. WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STORMS. BOATERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS NEAR THE EAST COAST COULD PRODUCE A WATERSPOUT THAT WOULD AFFECT THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 3 FEET COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING NEW MOON TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE FROM MID TO LATE MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS...A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST...NEW IGNITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY NEW OR SMOLDERING FIRES WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING QUICKLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL FORM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE HIGH THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

WHILE THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY...ANYTIME THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THUS...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AFFECT FLORIDA BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER INTO THIS WEEKEND. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS...FORECASTS...IMPACT WEATHER UPDATES...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WHICH WILL REFINE THE EXPECTED TIMING AND IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM.

BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS MONDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND REPORT ANY COIN-SIZED HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...OR WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

ADDITIONALLY...SPOTTERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
INFORMATION REGARDING THE STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY.


$$

CRISTALDI/BOWEN

Quoting Grothar:


I never said it would flip the planet.

Darn! I already made the new maps! :(

Quoting reedzone:
Slight risk has adjusted north of Tampa and Orlando, but still south of Jacksonville.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Looks like we may get more rain today and tonight than forecasted.

Personally I think we'll get more rain for the whole event than is forecast. The HPC dropped its QPF forecast down some which I think should not have happened, they should have stuck with previous heavier amounts.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Almost looks as if a warm front or stationary front is organizing across C FL and extending into the c Gulf.

Yeah I had mentioned this earlier. This boundary which originally was a weak cold front from a couple days ago stalled across central florida, and is now being reinvigorated by a surge of southerly wind. It'll move north slightly before tonight and will be the focus for very heavy rainfall totals.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 76. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Saturday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

I wonder if this means my 9:30 Sunday morning tennis game will be canceled.

Another TS Alberto? Glad you pointed out the one in 2006, and not the one in 1994; I don't think central Georgia wants to go through that again.

Quoting RTSplayer:


Sorry, kinda got bored and annoyed with their incompetence, and quit watching after 2 or 3 minutes of them screwing around with the microphone and other crap.

They should learn to edit a video.

Very true, but Gundersen's presentation is gold... He knows how to simplify and explain what really happened and the consequences... For me a very respetable nuclear scientist...

Like he says, he loves Salmon, just like many of us.... Cesium will be in there in 2013-14, meanwhile enjoy Salmon al Ajillo...