Wunderground launches new Local Climate Change section
In honor of Earth Day on Sunday, wunderground has launched a new Climate Change Center, which gives people resources to understand how the climate is changing both globally and in their local neighborhoods. I am particularly pleased with our Local Climate Change feature, which allows one to see how temperature and precipitation have changed over the past 100+ years at the nearest station with a long period of measurements. Predictions from climate models on what the next 100 years may bring are overlaid for each station. Data for most U.S. stations goes back to 1895; we have data for a few stations in Europe that extend back to the 1700s. Berlin has the longest period of record in this database, with data back to 1702.
Figure 1. Screenshot of the Local Climate Change page for Washington, DC. Measured temperatures since 1820 are shown in grey. By clicking on the "Show post-1900 trend:" box, we see that the trend since 1900 has been for an increase in temperature of 1.5°C (2.7°F) per century. Moving the thin vertical red line over the image using the mouse shows that the warmest year on record in Washington D.C. was 1991. Predictions for a future with low emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are shown in yellow; the high emissions prediction is shown in red. Separate tabs are available to examine precipitation and snow.
Skeptical?
Also included in the new Climate Change Center is a section addressing the common skeptical arguments made against climate change. We offer three levels of explanation. The "Basic" level is the default, but one can also see more technical in-depth discussions by clicking on the "See All Explanation Levels" link. The material was developed by physicist John Cook for his excellent skepticalscience.com web site, which is widely referenced in the climate science communication community.
Video 1. I'm featured in this video on extreme weather and climate change done by veteran videographer Peter Sinclair for the Yale forum on Climate Change and the Media this month. I'm also featured in Part 1 of this series. Our new Climate Change Center has a section for climate change videos, which includes a twice-monthly feature from GreenTV detailing the world's notable wild weather events of the past two weeks.
Earth: the Operator's Manual airs Sunday night
Penn State climate scientist Dr. Richard Alley hosts parts II and III of Earth: the Operator's Manual on PBS beginning at 7pm Sunday, April 22--Earth Day. Part I of this excellent series aired in April 2011. The series gives an overview of climate change, but primarily focuses on what we can do to help slow down climate change though smart energy choices. Dr. Alley, a registered Republican, geologist, and former oil company employee, is the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at the Pennsylvania State University, and one of the most respected and widely published world experts on climate change. Dr. Alley has testified before Congress on climate change issues, served as lead author of "Chapter 4: Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground" for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and is author of more than 170 peer-reviewed scientific articles on Earth's climate. He is also the author of a book I highly recommend--The Two Mile Time Machine, a superb account of Earth's climate history as deduced from the 2-mile long Greenland ice cores. Dr. Alley is an excellent and engaging speaker, and I highly recommend listening to his 45-minute keynote speech, "The Biggest Control Knob: CO2 in Earth's Climate History", given at the 2010 American Geophysical Union meeting, via this very watchable recording showing his slides as he speaks in one corner of the video. If you want to understand why scientists are so certain of the link between CO2 and Earth's climate, this is a must-see lecture.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I'd like to thank Wunderground meteorologist, Angela Fritz for spearheading the creating the new Climate Change Center; it's a product I'll be referring to frequently in the future, and one we'll be updating in the coming months with data on local sea level rise, fire risk, and drought.
Jeff Masters
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Now the SSt's will offer up as well.
Juicy in the track and to the south fetch.
Severe weather outbreaks in Florida during the winter months and into the springtime months (through roughly mid-May) are not nearly as "anomalous" as many people would tend to believe.
Sometime go check out the stats on how many people have died in tornadoes in Florida during the past 15 years vs. how many have died in Oklahoma. If memory serves, Oklahoma wins that race but not by nearly as much as most people would think.
During and El Niño winter and spring, Florida is actually just about as likely to get a major severe weather outbreak, including potentially deadly tornadoes, as most other parts of the US that are much more known for their tornado activity. But this is in part due to the fact that tornadoes tend to be less common in the more traditional areas of the Plains and Upper Midwest during El Niño years. And of course, severe weather is more prevalent during those years in Florida than it is in other years.
It is a complicated situation but it is not accurate to say that Florida is not known for severe weather. It would be accurate to say that most people who do not live in Florida think the only severe weather we get here is hurricanes. Then again, most people don't know weather nearly as well as those who frequent this blog.
Generalizations in weather or any other subject tend to obscure the facts.
So much for the supercells.
"Strap in boyz and pull dem belt's tight one mo time."
Daniel Pinkwater on Pineapple Exam: ‘Nonsense on Top of Nonsense’
"That really is why it’s hilarious on the face of it that anybody creating a test would use a passage of mine, because I’m an advocate of nonsense."
Lucky Floridians. You get Roger Edwards on mesoscale today. I have learned a lot from reading his discussions. For those who missed it on previous page...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL/NRN FL
PENINSULA...COASTAL-BEND AREA...COASTAL SERN PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211725Z - 212000Z
QUASI-LINEAR MCS OFFSHORE FROM FL MAY OFFER DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL
AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING ROUGHLY 18-21Z TIME FRAME...FROM FL
COASTAL BEND REGION SSEWD TO PIE-SRQ AREAS. NWRN FRINGE OF COMPLEX
MAY OFFER AT LEAST MRGL SVR THREAT DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER SERN
PANHANDLE AREAS NE AAF. BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
LEWP/BOW CIRCULATIONS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS
SMALL ATTM. ADDITIONAL/SEPARATE CONVECTION INLAND MAY PRODUCE MORE
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS VERY FRAGMENTED/VARIABLE SFC MOISTURE FIELD
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FL. AREAS AROUND OCF AND GIF THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED MORE SUSTAINED HEATING/MIXING SHOW LOW-MID 60S DEW
POINTS...WITH MID-UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN
IS UNLIKELY THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...GIVEN PRESENCE OF OUTFLOW
POOL FROM EARLIER MCS OVER S FL...KEYS AND ADJOINING ERN GULF.
STABILIZATION FROM THAT OUTFLOW AREA ALSO WILL LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF
GULF MCS BACKBUILDING...AT LEAST FOR NEXT 4-5 HOURS.
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AREAS OF PRIOR STG INSOLATION ARE DIMINISHING
AS PROGRESSIVELY DENSER COVERAGE AND THICKER DEPTH OF HIGH CLOUDS
SPREAD OVER CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA...IN ADVANCE OF MCS. THIS WILL
SLOW PACE OF FURTHER DIABATIC SFC DESTABILIZATION AND MLCINH
REDUCTION...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THERMODYNAMIC SUITABILITY OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INLAND. HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OBSERVED RANGE OF SFC TEMPS/DEW POINTS...WITH A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES F ADDED THERMALLY...WILL YIELD 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE AND SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH NWD AND NEWD EXTENT ACROSS FL INTO
GA...INDICATING LESSER ORGANIZATION AND MORE PULSE/MULTICELL
MORPHOLOGY. HOWEVER...IN GROUND-RELATIVE SENSE...DEEP BULK SHEAR
WILL STRENGTHEN WITH TIME OVER FL W COAST...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES 35-45 KT BECOMING COMMON BY TIME OF MCS ARRIVAL.
..EDWARDS.. 04/21/2012
Well behind the rain with the warm front is clearing and meso analysis shows high CAPE in that area.
However, I wonder if a squall line will develop with e cold front, the cold front doesn't look that impressive right now because moisture convergence has spread over to the warm front. There may not be enough time for moisture convergence to relocate back west with the cold front after this area of rain moves through.
People are talking about the line weakening but the reason why this line is just now a mass of rain is because it started as a squall line ahead of the cold front and it sort of transferred its focus along the warm front causing its structure to evolve from an intense squall line to a warm frontal mass. That being said, I do wonder if the second line that is forecast to develop with the cold front will actual materialize, I've analyzed the satellite imagery and I've determined that the MCS with the warm front is too close to the cold front and is thus focusing all the moisture flux along the warm front, robbing the cold front with greatest instability from firing storms.
However! The one interesting thing about this, is that the amount of clearing ahead of the cold front will also allow instability to build up to very high values behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front. That being said if moisture flux and convergence can be shifted back to the cold front later a powerful squall line could rapidly explode. But I am not super confident that it will actual develop like it's forecast to.
What is good about this forecaster? Just wondering...
WV
RGB
IR Rainbow
The threat for damaging winds will definitely be there later today given wind fields increasing tonight.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
142 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
* UNTIL 215 PM EDT
* AT 141 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MADISON...OR NEAR HOPEWELL...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10
MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GREENVILLE.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 3047 8366 3050 8341 3034 8344 3034 8362
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 173DEG 10KT 3040 8348
$$
44-LERICOS
SPC should probably put a watch up for north Florida
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 142 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 119 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1102 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2012
Deff. Although looks like your getting some good soaking rains there, may help to limit the severe weather down by you. However, it is extremely bright out, partly cloudy skies here in Central Florida. Instability/cape values increasing here.
One can see the banding easily.
I'll get some High Winds tonight on Video as we going out to S Shore Lake Pontchartrain.
Pretty much! LOL
Light rain here in Broward County.
My house has received 1.75" in the past 24 hours
and more to come I am sure.
Gale Warning valid until April 22 10:00am CDT
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1055 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2012
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...
.THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WINDS
AND SEAS FOR ALL OF THE AREA COASTAL WATERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
FREQUENT GALE FORCE WINDS GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
MID MORNING SUNDAY.
GMZ530-532-534-220000-
/O.EXT.KLIX.SC.Y.0027.120421T1555Z-120422T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.GL.W.0002.120422T0000Z-120422T1500Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-
1055 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2012
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
CDT SUNDAY...
* WINDS...NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
* WAVES/SEAS...WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
AND 4 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE TIDAL
LAKES AND SOUNDS. SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RISE TO 5 TO
7 FEET OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 7 TO 10 FEET IN THE
WATERS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES FROM SHORE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.
&&
$$
When you read the next discussion, it will follow up on points made here. Presuming there is a watch issued.
Roger Edwards will teach you words you have not heard before. Also something that might be of interest to you, he wrote a way cool research paper on tornadoes produced by land-falling tropical cyclones.
In general, reading the MCDs helps me develop a picture of what's happening and what forces are behind what could happen. As you know, what's happening right now will affect what happens this eve and on into the night.
Seems like the storms are re-organizing as they hit land... That's how strong the instability is.
Looks rather stormy ...
And hello from Germany, Barb.
I hope you're right!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
215 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012
FLZ039-211900-
LEVY-
215 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LEVY COUNTY...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OTTER CREEK...OR 15 MILES
SOUTH OF BRONSON...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH...AND WILL AFFECT
LEBANON...OTTER CREEK...BRONSON AND CHIEFLAND...UNTIL 300 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH MAY OCCUR. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE
HAIL.
&&
LAT...LON 2959 8277 2957 8275 2957 8266 2954 8265
2953 8255 2949 8255 2947 8252 2921 8252
2920 8253 2915 8253 2915 8284 2916 8290
2952 8299 2960 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 175DEG 19KT 2926 8273
$$
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