Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Late-season Nor'easter socks Northeast U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:27 GMT le 23 avril 2012

+30

Heavy snow, high winds, and torrential rains are lashing the Northeast U.S. today, thanks to a powerful late-season Nor'easter approaching New York from the south. Wind gusts of 54 mph and 58 mph were recorded last night at New York City's La Guardia Airport and Staten Island, and heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches have been common across Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Southeast New York since Sunday. The 2.45" that fell at Central Park in New York City yesterday broke the old record of 1.80" for the date set in 1969. The heavy rains are a boon for the region, which is under moderate to severe drought. The storm delayed the arrival of the space shuttle Enterprise, which was due to be flown into New York City's JFK Airport today and loaded on a barge to be shipped to the Intrepid Sea, Air & Space Museum on the Hudson River. The flight is now scheduled for Wednesday.

Figure 1. A late-season Nor'easter takes aim at the Northeast U.S. in this satellite image taken at 9:31 am EDT 4/23/12. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Heavy snow belting PA, NY, and WV
The big story with this Nor'easter is the heavy snow falling in Western Pennsylvania, Western New York, and the higher elevations in West Virginia. Wet, heavy snow of 6 - 12 inches will be common, particularly at elevations higher than 2,000 feet. Up to a foot of snow had already fallen in the Allegany Mountains of Western Pennsylvania as of 11 am EDT this morning, and 8.5" in the mountains of New York, according to the latest NWS Storm Summary. The wet, heavy snow is falling on regions where trees have already come into leaf, thanks to the surprise "Summer in March" heat wave that brought 80° temperatures to the Northeast over a month ago. High winds will accompany today's snow, and extensive tree damage and power outages can be expected. Winds have gusted as high as 39 mph this morning in Rochester, NY. Sustained north to northeast winds blowing off of Lake Ontario are expected to rise to 40 mph later today, creating waves up to 14 feet high, causing lake shore flooding problems.

History of late season snowfalls
Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt made a post last year on Record Late Season Snowfalls. He documents that the latest measurable snow in Buffalo, NY was 0.1" on May 20, 1907. Not including today, Buffalo has had ten calendar day snow events of an inch or more after the date of April 22nd. Recent events include May 7th, 1989 when 7.9 inches fell, and April 24th, 2005 when 1.2 inches of snow fell. In Rochester, NY, such events are slightly more common, with 18 such events of one inch of snow or greater after April 22nd. Recent events include April 25th, 1983, when 3.5 inches of snow fell, May 7th, 1989 when 10.7 inches of snow fell, and May 12th 1996, when 1.1 inches fell.

Two major Nor'easters this season: one in October, one in April
What's crazy about this Nor'easter is that it is only the second significant Nor'easter of the 2011 - 2012 snow season. The other major Nor'easter occurred October 30 - 31. It's pretty bizarre to have your only two significant Nor'easters of the season occur in October and April--and none in November, December, January, February, and March. I talked to a weather disaster expert in the insurance industry last week, who told me that NOAA's National Climatic Data Center will probably end up classifying last year's October 30 - 31 Nor'easter as 2011's fifteenth billion-dollar weather disaster.

Record April heat in Phoenix and Las Vegas
As is often the case when a major Nor'easter is affecting the Eastern U.S., the jet stream is contorted to bring a strong ridge of high pressure over the Western U.S., accompanied by record-breaking heat. Phoenix, Arizona hit 105°F yesterday, its tying its record for hottest April temperature (previous 105° April temperatures occurred on 4/20/1989 and 4/29/1992.) Las Vegas, Nevada hit 99°F yesterday, the hottest temperature on record for so early in the year, and tied for the hottest April temperature on record. The mercury climbed to a scorching 113° in Death Valley yesterday, a record for the date, and the hottest temperature measured in the U.S. so far in 2012.

Jeff Masters

Heavy snow (NumLock)

Heavy snow. Schools closed. April 23, 2012

Approaching... (ibswedee)

Space Shuttles Enterprise(on left) and Discovery(on right) sit nose to nose. Enterprise will be transferred to The Intrepid Museum in NYC on Monday.

Garrett Co., MD (ccorbin66)

April 23, 2012

Categories: Winter Weather Heat

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151. AtHomeInTX 21:36 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting RitaEvac: It is disgusting, reminds me of drought Yeah it does kinda make ya nervous seeing no rain chances again. But on a brighter note we'll be getting all the humidity we can stand. Lol. Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3991

152. redwagon 21:36 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting redwagon: Pretty intense convective firing, there. And it's coming straight to TX :) no right to fla then texas west all the way Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: no right to fla then texas west all the way Member Since: 4 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1479

153. JNCali 21:37 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Nice blob growth by near Panama Member Since: 9 septembre 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1032

154. MAweatherboy1 21:38 GMT le 23 avril 2012
This isn't really weather related but I thought it was pretty cool... An all white orca whale was spotted off the east Russian coast today. You can read the whole story about it here. Link Here's a picture of it with its pod... Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 70 Comments: 6519

155. TropicalAnalystwx13 21:40 GMT le 23 avril 2012
That would be the Colombian Low, I believe. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25948

156. MAweatherboy1 21:41 GMT le 23 avril 2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT MON APR 23 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ORE...NRN CA...NW NV CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 232039Z - 232215Z A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST ACROSS NRN CA...NW NV AND SRN ORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN NRN CA AND NW NV ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 750 TO 1200 J/KG. THE STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE DUE TO SFC HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA. AS THE CELLS SPREAD NWD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 40 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA SUGGESTING DOWNBURSTS MAY BE ENHANCED ENOUGH TO POSE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 04/23/2012 Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 70 Comments: 6519

157. nrtiwlnvragn 21:46 GMT le 23 avril 2012
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS Excerpt: NOTE: THERE IS A RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI DURING THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION TO AFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES REMAINING THROUGH THURSDAY. Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 9088

158. CybrTeddy 21:47 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K: More chances of rain on the way. Forecast for Orlando Oh come on, another cold front? Old man winter needs to get a grip, because it's only two months away from Summer. If it wants to get colder, do so when it's actually the time of year, not May.. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

159. TropicalAnalystwx13 21:52 GMT le 23 avril 2012
The GFS makes me laugh sometimes. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25948

160. fireflymom 21:53 GMT le 23 avril 2012
But Mt Etna has been erupting frequently since the 50's. Quoting LargoFl: simply amazing..from 1936..........................................from JohnWorldPeace.com Three volcanoes are mentioned in the Cayce readings as having what can be called "indicator" functions for warning people of upcoming, historically unprecedented Earth changes. The Mt. Etna area in Sicily, along with other portions of the Mediterranean area, will experience "sinking or rising" of Earth's crust. This will indicate the beginning of significant "changes in the Earth's activity." Also, Mt. Vesuvius, in Italy, and Mt. Pelée, on the Caribbean island of Martinique, are to be watched for "greater activities." When such activities occur at one or the other of these volcanoes, they will indicate that the southern coast of California -- and areas between Salt Lake and the southern portions of Nevada -- will experience, within three months, "an inundation by the earthquakes." (270-35, 1/21/36) The only mention of Mt. Etna in the Cayce readings is in reference to a 1932 question about when a change in the Earth's activity will begin to be apparent. The answer was: When there is the first breaking up of some conditions in the South Sea (that's South Pacific, to be sure), and those as apparent in the sinking or rising of that that's almost opposite same, or in the Mediterranean, and the Aetna (Etna] area, then we may know it has begun. Member Since: 5 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 510

161. CybrTeddy 21:57 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Looked through the GFS and ECMWF Temperature forecasts, no sign of any more cold fronts for Florida. Thursday onwards it's nothing but mid to upper 80s, with some 90s. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

162. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:06 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: The GFS makes me laugh sometimes. don't laugh to hard Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41305

163. washingtonian115 22:12 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Has the blog already begun blob watching season?. Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 11178

164. docrod 22:13 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting JNCali: Nice blob growth by near Panama Lotta shear (SW to NE) to the north of the blob right now. Starting to show. Member Since: 21 avril 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 631

165. docrod 22:15 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting washingtonian115: Has the blog already begun blob watching season?. Not me! - fingers crossed. Member Since: 21 avril 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 631

166. CybrTeddy 22:18 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting washingtonian115: Has the blog already begun blob watching season?. Are you kidding? We began in February with 90L. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

167. Patrap 22:18 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112933

168. washingtonian115 22:20 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: Are you kidding? We began in February with 90L. Oh I almost forgot about the little bugger. Quoting docrod: Not me! - fingers crossed. Well May is coming up in around a week and then the almighty month of June.:P. Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 11178

169. yqt1001 22:22 GMT le 23 avril 2012
May 31st: Meh all the tropics look boring, like winter. June 1st: OMG LOOK AT THE HUNDREDS OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT BLOBS!!!! It's coming folks..we only have a month and a bit left... Member Since: 19 novembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1191

170. bappit 22:23 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting washingtonian115: Has the blog already begun blob watching season?. Blobs are often more interesting than TC's. Member Since: 18 mai 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 4423

171. hydrus 22:24 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting washingtonian115: Has the blog already begun blob watching season?. Hello 115. There are always a few blobs to watch...Here is a nice one over Africa... West Pacific..West Central Pacific..East Pac... Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14669

172. redwagon 22:26 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting bappit: Blobs are often more interesting than TC's. I like turtles spinning blobs. Member Since: 4 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1479

173. Tropicsweatherpr 22:26 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting yqt1001: May 31st: Meh all the tropics look boring, like winter. June 1st: OMG LOOK AT THE HUNDREDS OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT BLOBS!!!! It's coming folks..we only have a month and a bit left... Days,minutes and seconds until June 1rst countdown. Link Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 67 Comments: 8760

174. MAweatherboy1 22:27 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Does anyone think the Atlantic could produce its first storm before the East Pac? Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 70 Comments: 6519

175. washingtonian115 22:29 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting bappit: Blobs are often more interesting than TC's. Blobs do what ever they want and don't follow a specific agenda unlike T.C.Which make them even more awesome. Quoting hydrus: Hello 115. There are always a few blobs to watch...Here is a nice one over Africa... West Pacific..West Central Pacific..East Pac... Hey Hydrus.I just hope nature gives a good blob to watch come June 1st like last year. Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 11178

176. Articuno 22:29 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Does anyone think the Atlantic could produce its first storm before the East Pac? It's possible. I think it has a chance. Member Since: 22 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933

177. Articuno 22:35 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: That would be the Colombian Low, I believe. No, it's Bob the Blob. :D Member Since: 22 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933

178. MAweatherboy1 22:41 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting Articuno: No, it's Bob the Blob. :D Nah, that's this guy... Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 70 Comments: 6519

179. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:47 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Does anyone think the Atlantic could produce its first storm before the East Pac? It's always possible, but I doubt it. Many tropical cyclones develop within the upward pulse of the MJO due to enhanced convection. Well, that upward pulse would visit the Eastern Pacific before the Atlantic, so the only other way the Atlantic could get a storm first is off a frontal boundary. Or, the Eastern Pacific would just not produce anything from that MJO pulse and the Atlantic would. Probably not making any sense right now.. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25948

180. MAweatherboy1 22:49 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: It's always possible, but I doubt it. Yeah, I'm not thinking it will, but I give it a higher than normal chance because we have a better than usual chance of an early storm in the Gulf with the warm waters there. Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 70 Comments: 6519

181. catman306 22:51 GMT le 23 avril 2012
I remember that on the Fourth of July in Buffalo in, probably, 1973 or 74 it snow flurried. Temperature was about 37. No measurable precipitation. Member Since: 16 novembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 11

182. GTcooliebai 22:57 GMT le 23 avril 2012
67 degrees in West Central FL. with a brisk NW wind towards the end of April...and I'm so loving it! Member Since: 31 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5455

183. hydrus 23:03 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting catman306: I remember that on the Fourth of July in Buffalo in, probably, 1973 or 74 it snow flurried. Temperature was about 37. No measurable precipitation. Far out. But if it were to do that, Buffalo is the place. Man do they get the cold and snow. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14669

184. hydrus 23:05 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Does anyone think the Atlantic could produce its first storm before the East Pac? Not this year. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14669

185. wxgeek723 23:05 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy: Are you kidding? We began in February with 90L. There's an off season for blob watching? Member Since: 28 août 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 2366

186. stormpetrol 23:11 GMT le 23 avril 2012
I think with the 2012 Hurricane Season predicted to be near or slightly below average, I would not be surprised to see our first named storm before June 1 Member Since: 29 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6491

187. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:22 GMT le 23 avril 2012
My best analogue for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is 2002: My best analogue for the 2012 Pacific hurricane season is 2006: Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25948

188. PedleyCA 23:27 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: Mount Etna volcano live webcam http://www.radiostudio7.it/webcam.asp If you want to watch Etna do its thing for the sixth time this year, check out the bevy of webcams from Radio Studio 7, INGV Catania and Etna Walk. Hard to miss a moment of the action with all these webcams %u2026 better act quick, though. These paroxysm usually only last a few hours at the most! via Wired.com blog New toy, thanks...... Member Since: 29 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2273

189. hydrus 23:28 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: My best analogue for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is 2002: My best analogue for the 2012 Pacific hurricane season is 2006: Dr.Grey and the crew have analog years listed as 1957, 1965, 2001 and 2009. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14669

190. MAweatherboy1 23:29 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: My best analogue for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is 2002: My best analogue for the 2012 Pacific hurricane season is 2006: I think 2002 is good for the Atlantic except we'll probably see some June activity... I think we'll see low activity levels in the late season similar to 2002 I think 2009 is a better analogue for the East Pac season since we'll probably see a lot more than 9 storms like in 2006... I really expect a true monster out there this year, maybe even rivaling Rick from 09 Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 70 Comments: 6519

191. GeorgiaStormz 23:36 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Ok, so i am back from camping and it did not rain, even though at some times, we were surrounded by rain. Me and the 1500 other i was with are thankful for that. There were also just enough clouds to lessen the sunburn people usually get. The next 7 days look unusually uneventful. I have the feeling mother nature has something up her sleeve. Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7522

192. Articuno 23:37 GMT le 23 avril 2012
. Member Since: 22 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933

193. Tribucanes 23:38 GMT le 23 avril 2012
45 years ago last weekend, five twisters, three of them F4 giants descended on the Chicago area, striking so quickly that escape was all but impossible for the victims. 58 were killed, including many children, and more than 1000 were injured. In suburban Oak Lawn, where 33 perished, the twister rammed into the intersection of Southwest Highway and 95th Street at rush hour as motorists waited at a red light, throwing cars through the air. Eighteen died at that intersection alone. In Belvidere, 70 miles northwest of Chicago, a tornado hit as school was letting out. The 1200 students tried to escape back into the school, but many of the younger students were already on the buses and trapped. The tornado flipped the buses in the air and threw them into nearby fields. Six were destroyed. More than half of the 24 dead in Belvidere were children. Member Since: 18 avril 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1734

194. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:41 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: I think 2002 is good for the Atlantic except we'll probably see some June activity... I think we'll see low activity levels in the late season similar to 2002 I think 2009 is a better analogue for the East Pac season since we'll probably see a lot more than 9 storms like in 2006... I really expect a true monster out there this year, maybe even rivaling Rick from 09 The 2006 Pacific hurricane season had 18 named storms. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25948

195. MAweatherboy1 23:48 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: The 2006 Pacific hurricane season had 18 named storms. Oh, my bad... For some reason only one map showed up at first for me... Then I just saw the other half Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 70 Comments: 6519

196. TropicTraveler 23:50 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Hi all - sailed from Miami on Saturday and been under rain clouds and some heavy thunderstorms for the entire time until today. Logged on and there' a great picture of the weather we're sailing in. No wonder. Let's here it one again for Weather Underground. Member Since: 24 juillet 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 905

197. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:53 GMT le 23 avril 2012
I can see where the jetstream is in this image...can you? Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25948

198. MAweatherboy1 23:56 GMT le 23 avril 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: I can see where the jetstream is in this image...can you? No, but I bet there's a huge dip in the east which would likely mean a large ridge in the west. Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 70 Comments: 6519

199. MAweatherboy1 23:58 GMT le 23 avril 2012
There's a pretty impressive cluster of storms in east Oregon... Three warned storms Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 70 Comments: 6519

200. PedleyCA 00:06 GMT le 24 avril 2012
Here is our Southern Eruption. Not as colorful. Member Since: 29 février 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2273

201. Articuno 00:06 GMT le 24 avril 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: There's a pretty impressive cluster of storms in east Oregon... Three warned storms Member Since: 22 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1933

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