Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?
At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.
Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.
Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.
Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.
Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.
Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.
The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.
I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It's amazing to think that the 2004 hurricane season obtained the title of "most costly season" with just something like a total of $50 billion in damage. Then just a year later we had individual storms like Katrina and Wilma that were costing anywhere from 50%-200% of what had been the previous seasonal record.
Excellent post by Dr. Masters.
now
Two truly amazing hurricane seasons that none of us want to witness ever again.
3,193 fatalities in 2005 and >3000 fatalities in 2004.
Did ya get all the cabinets installed oh mighty overseer.....
And only two weeks before the eastern pacific hurricane season...thanks much
Woo-Hoo only 2 weeks, my back yard.....
Ah yes, I had forgotten about you. Some things never change, do they? Still hoping for death and destruction like always.
My GF will get a lot of money from her parents.
Significant, but expected warming over the past three months
Wow, it has a nice hook... definitely tornado warning needed
Hurricane Katrina wad a demon of a storm that no one wish to experience and can you believe that it weakened from a moderate cat 5 to a cat 3 before landfall...though it maybe possible that it was still a cat 4 at landfall
hopefully we'll get an early storm to watch
Quite the lucky dude
I think it's close but no according to that!
It was awesome and mind boggeling, awe inspiring, and destructive.
Amazing
That's better than the last one, closer
I think it's as strong as it's ever been... I don't know what the NWS is looking at, but I see some good rotation
I'm looking at the same storm, and the rotation is just too broad. That isn't even low level rotation, it's a few thousand feet up because it's not close to a radar station. I don't think that storm is tornadic IMO.
Doesn't mean that it hasn't worked its way down
Hay que trabajar en su español un poco. Yo lo entiendo, pero es un poco difícil. Espero que no los "illuminati" de la Iglesia.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
859 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012
KYZ034-039-040-047-290130-
ANDERSON-MERCER-SHELBY-WOODFORD-
859 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND PENNY SIZE
HAIL WILL MOVE ACROSS ANDERSON COUNTY...
AT 853 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES EAST OF TAYLORSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.
CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
VERSAILLES...
LAWRENCEBURG...
HICKORY GROVE AND FOX CREEK...
BALLARD AND DUGANSVILLE...
NEVIN AND MCBRAYER...
BONDVILLE AND VANARSDELL...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
LAT...LON 3781 8490 3785 8500 3789 8503 3789 8511
3792 8512 3790 8513 3791 8516 3798 8517
3799 8516 3800 8513 3804 8510 3805 8514
3813 8511 3806 8473
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 289DEG 30KT 3799 8507
$$
JSD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
807 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012
TXC263-290130-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-120429T0130Z/
KENT TX-
807 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
KENT COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM CDT...
AT 802 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CLAIREMONT...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN KENT COUNTY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LUBBOCK AT 8067451290.
&&
LAT...LON 3297 10080 3319 10081 3327 10061 3311 10052
3296 10052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 254DEG 38KT 3309 10064
$$
05
Eh, I don't know. GREarth shows rotation too which uses all surrounding radar sites and compiles them to give the most accurate data available to the public.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
801 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012
TXZ049-290200-
FISHER TX-
801 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR FISHER
COUNTY...
AT 756 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ROTAN...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF SNYDER...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.
* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ROTAN BY 830 PM CDT
HITSON BY 900 PM CDT
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO
OCCURRING WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
LAT...LON 3296 10015 3284 10014 3283 10066 3296 10065
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 266DEG 23KT 3295 10069
$$
20
Doesn't mean that it has either...
I'm using GR2Analyst, and I've looked at all of the sites, and I'm not seeing the rotation. Also, the storm seems to have weakened since I made that comment too.
Global Warming isnt going to be the end of Mankind as we know it! Its just going to be a big pain in the neck.
Anything that came before our time,(IE about 1950,) was absorbed within the general scheme of planetary self correcting systems.
These said systems did not have the ability to cope with radiation and pollution on a grand scale as they are not " naturally," occurring phenomenon.
Quoting Biblical catastrophes and other pestilence is not an issue in the present sequence of events, I see the process of human derived pollution, simply as a pointer to a crossroads in human development and occupation of the planet.
The process of pollution is now inevitable, the consequences of it are predictable but as of now the predictors are ridiculed.
With or without humans the sun will still rise, the only thing is, without humans there will be nobody to photograph it!
Hurricane Ivan wobble to the west and spared Jamaica the worst, but Cayman really took a pounding
Yeah who is issuing these warnings? The storm isn't even going to touch that new one!
TXC169-263-290130-
/O.NEW.KLUB.SV.W.0063.120429T0030Z-120429T0130Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
730 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GARZA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
KENT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
* UNTIL 830 PM CDT
* AT 728 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY...OR 24 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POST...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CLAIREMONT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW. GO
TO THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. IF YOU CANNOT GET UNDERGROUND...GO
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8067451290.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.
&&
LAT...LON 3297 10106 3306 10114 3328 10095 3328 10062
3311 10052 3296 10052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 232DEG 19KT 3305 10099
$$
05
Esperamos!
Maximum Estimate Hail Size (MEHS) means that there is a 25% chance of larger hail and a 75% chance of smaller hail. The largest error bars with the algorithm are at the upper end, where dense areas of small, wet hail can cause similar reflectivities to very large hail.
.
I wasn't watching earlier, but I'm currently wagering on the horses running at Churchill Downs tonite. Everything's fine, though the track is sloppy. The horses are loving it and there's a large crowd. Wish me luck in the late P4.
TXC151-253-290215-
/O.NEW.KSJT.SV.W.0044.120429T0117Z-120429T0215Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
817 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN FISHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 915 PM CDT
* AT 814 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ROTAN...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF JAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...
SOME VEHICLE DENTS...
SOME ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE...
SOME EXPOSED WINDOWS MAY CRACK OR BREAK...
SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED...
UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ROTAN BY 830 PM CDT...
HITSON BY 905 PM CDT...
HAMLIN BY 915 PM CDT...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
&&
LAT...LON 3296 10007 3282 10008 3284 10065 3297 10065
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 266DEG 22KT 3294 10059
$$
20
Now they've put one up that the storm actually will go through, though they've left the pointless one up.
Meanwhile there's still some rotation with this storm.
Different CWAs.... WFO Lubbock vs. WFO San Angelo.
What a mess: Three warnings, one that the storm has already went through, one it will totally miss, and one it will go through.
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