Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 13:00 GMT le 28 avril 2012

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At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.


Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.


Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.

Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.


Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.


Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.

The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.

I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Nigel,it looks like Puerto Rico will have another rainy period starting by midweek and going thru next weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
831 PM AST SAT APR 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH SUN THEN BREAK
DOWN ON MON AS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LIFTS OVER
TOP OF IT. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TUE THROUGH THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE OVR THE AREA AS
SEEN ON A 2320Z SJU ACARS SOUNDING. THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO BREAK
UNTIL MON WHEN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN WILL LIFT OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOMORROW DEEP CONVECTION
DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL APPEAR ON TAP MID WEEK WHEN PRES
GRADIENT IS FCST TO RELAX AND WINDS DECREASE ALLOWING FOR BETTER
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER NEXT WEEKEND IN A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW.


Now it appears some models want to take it back towards Haiti(or north of it), breaking down the ridge over the Lesser Antilles that drove it this far(if I'm hearing correctly)?!
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Quoting Grothar:
Sorry,Geek. I didn't mean to copy. I just went back and saw your post. I am trying to catch up on the blog after my little nap. We must have had the same thought.


you falling asleep at the computer again huh
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Quoting Patrap:
Weather, who'd a thunk?

thats to swing out into the gulf pat part of it will anyway
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Sharing is what happens best here.


Nighty.
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129414
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Have to admit that was one of the best discussions I have had on the blog. That and the discussion me and Patrap had about tornado ratings being higher in Dixie Ally because of the higher population in the area.


It was a good discussion, everyone was civil and polite, and it was intelligent and sourced as well.

That's about as much as you can ask for on here :)

Good night, my friends!
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Sorry,Geek. I didn't mean to copy. I just went back and saw your post. I am trying to catch up on the blog after my little nap. We must have had the same thought.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27075
Quoting Tribucanes:
what's the opposite of progress?...........Congress But seriously Milwaukee and Chicago going to be under the gun Wednesday looks like. High warning this far out how unusual is that for this area?
This one made me laugh. And yes its seems like we have a major city under the gun. Can anyone tell me if its a tornadic threat or a Wind/Hail type of deal.
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Bruce Springsteen is doing his Jazz Fest Show tomorrow.

Weather is a def go.






Acura Stage 4:30 - 7:00
Bruce Springsteen & the E Street Band
more info
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129414
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol I have been spelling it wrong all of these years and no one has corrected me until now. Guerrilla war-fair.


Some of us are just to polite.

CHARGE!!!!!!!!1


Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27075
Quoting yqt1001:


What's a weather?

Is that what this blog is for?
Have to admit that was one of the best discussions I have had on the blog. That and the discussion me and Patrap had about tornado ratings being higher in Dixie Ally because of the higher population in the area.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Its seems to be a game we like to play. I really do wonder what drives us to war. What causes it. Ambition?


Deep-rooted primal instincts of which we haven't evolved out of yet. The Alpha-Male complex. And has anyone noticed that almost all of the people who are known for war related fame/infame (with the exception of a few) are men...? It's a testosterone thing.
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Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8411
what's the opposite of progress?...........Congress But seriously Milwaukee and Chicago going to be under the gun Wednesday looks like. High warning this far out how unusual is that for this area?
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Love that movie. Is still one of my favorites.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
war is a fools game
Its seems to be a game we like to play. I really do wonder what drives us to war. What causes it. Ambition?
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Major Hurricane Wilma
Archive Data

Storm Activity: 10/15/2005 - 10/26/2005


Tracking Map | Landfall Regional Radar Loop | Landfall Local Radar Loop | Forecast Verification | Precipitation | Satellite | Jeff Masters Blog Archive | Wikipedia | Satellite Animation | NOAA Report PDF | NOAA Monthly Weather Review for 2005
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129414
Update on Earthquake here in SoCal. I wasn't on the San Andreas fault but on one of two smaller faults that branch off of it. There were also several small aftershocks of 2.0, 1.8, 1.4, 1.5 all within 4 hours of the main quake. Most of the locals didn't even feel these.
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Currently Active Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific

WP972012 - INVEST


Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129414
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Sorry, but I can't resist..



Gorilla War
Lol I have been spelling it wrong all of these years and no one has corrected me until now. Guerrilla war-fair.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
war is a fools game


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Politicians are like Diapers, they both need to be changed often, and for the same reasons.

Mark Twain
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129414
I'm not all that sure a tornado watch is warranted despite the fact that Effective Storm Relative Helicity values lie over 300 m2/s2. I mean, if any storms are able to become rooted at the surface, they have the potential of producing a tornado, but with the intense cap across the area, I just don't see that happening.

Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32690
Quoting Patrap:
Weather, who'd a thunk?



What's a weather?

Is that what this blog is for?
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Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129414
Quoting WxGeekVA:


And what if Japan had of attacked Russia's Eastern flank, and the Soviets had to deal with a two front war? Stalin would have to divert troops from the Western/German front to the Eastern/Japanese front...


Then the soviets would've lost. But Japan wasn't in a position to attack the USSR. Anyways at this point the conversation is degenerating into "what ifs" and would be better at an alternate history forum. :P
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Link

Nice Commercial.

It's not working for me
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8411
Weather, who'd a thunk?

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129414
war is a fools game
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Quoting Ossqss:


Hummm, what is your take on the current value of something and then doubling the available amount of such (Dollars)? Is it worth the same after that or perhaps less ?

How much Gold is currently in existence?

Is it enough to cover things for everyone?

To answer you first question doubling the amount of currency would cause massive inflation so why would you ever do that? The scarcity of gold is what gives it its value for second question and I do not know the exact amount. For your third question yes. The US government would just say how much gold each dollar is worth accordingly to our reserves. Also the collapse of the Euro would not be to significant to banks and such because they have had time and are aware of what is going on. They have placed a good portion of there value in more secure items such as metal ect.
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Quoting yqt1001:


What I meant to say is that taking Moscow would've likely ended up in a Stalingrad type of battle (a battle Nazis couldn't win because of lack of tank support). I'm sure even children would be armed fighting against the nazis in what would probably be a battle 3 times worse than Stalingrad. Nazis probably would've still won but barely and probably long after winter...


And what if Japan had of attacked Russia's Eastern flank, and the Soviets had to deal with a two front war? Stalin would have to divert troops from the Western/German front to the Eastern/Japanese front...
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Do you know how close they were to Moscow before winter hit? 10 miles! They most certainly could have taken Moscow if it were not for winter. As for taking the rest of the country I do not know. Would most likely become a large scaled gorilla war-fair on the USSR's part.


Sorry, but I can't resist..



Gorilla War
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Do you know how close they were to Moscow before winter hit? 10 miles! They most certainly could have taken Moscow if it were not for winter. As for taking the rest of the country I do not know. Would most likely become a large scaled gorilla war-fair on the USSR's part.


What I meant to say is that taking Moscow would've likely ended up in a Stalingrad type of battle (a battle Nazis couldn't win because of lack of tank support). I'm sure even children would be armed fighting against the nazis in what would probably be a battle 3 times worse than Stalingrad. Nazis probably would've still won but barely and probably long after winter...
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

TORNADO WATCH 201 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC015-017-027-031-033-049-051-067-073-081-083-087 -109-119-125-
137-141-290700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0201.120429T0335Z-120429T0700Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN
GRADY JEFFERSON KINGFISHER
LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN
OKLAHOMA PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE
STEPHENS TILLMAN


ATTN...WFO...OUN...
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32690
Quoting Ossqss:


Hummm, what is your take on the current value of something and then doubling the available amount of such (Dollars)? Is it worth the same after that or perhaps less ?

How much Gold is currently in existence?

Is it enough to cover things for everyone?



...Is there even any gold in Fort Knox?...
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Quoting yqt1001:
German blitzkreig war wasn't going to be able to defeat the Soviet Union. Could they have reached Moscow and gotten a surrender? Could they have even gotten into Moscow, I'm not too sure. If they took Moscow the USSR might've surrendered, but if Stalin was really angry he might've made them fight all the way to the Pacific which would've meant that Stalin probably could've still managed a win.

Stalingrad proved Stalin's carelessness about human sacrifice and I'm sure that any German attempt at taking Moscow in the first few months would've had a very similar result.

The Germans weren't ready for street warfare so I doubt that Moscow or Leningrad would've fallen as easy even if they started months earlier (not to mention they didn't fall in the 5 years of war anyways).
Do you know how close they were to Moscow before winter hit? 10 miles! They most certainly could have taken Moscow if it were not for winter. As for taking the rest of the country I do not know. Would most likely become a large scaled gorilla war-fair on the USSR's part.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
America could always switch back to the gold standard. Your overestimating the impact of the collapse of the Euro. It would be very bad but not dooms day.

You might find that a lot of the gold is gold plated Tungsten!
just by chance the same atomic weight, (nearly,)
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
America could always switch back to the gold standard. Your overestimating the impact of the collapse of the Euro. It would be very bad but not dooms day.


Hummm, what is your take on the current value of something and then doubling the available amount of such (Dollars)? Is it worth the same after that or perhaps less ?

How much Gold is currently in existence?

Is it enough to cover things for everyone?

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well, and also, after Pearl Harbor Germany declared war on the U.S. to support Japan even though they weren't bound to. The U.S. still didn't really want to get into the European war, and if Hitler hadn't of declared on us, we might not have for a long time, if not ever. After all, the U.S. is the only nation Hitler actually declared war on. All others declared on him, or he never declared war (Blitzkrieg). We would have been content to beat Japan and let Hitler take Europe, whether we want to admit it or not.
The similarities of WW1 & WW2 are astounding. For a long while people thought we would entered the war on Germany's side if ever in WW1. Of course Germany had to make the mistake of sinking US ships off our coast.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Even with the large losses of the air force it could be easily rebuilt if they had not invaded Russia. What would be interesting is seeing how the Germans invade England. The only thing you could do is a mass air drop. After the air drop secure some air fields and fly in the rest. I'm not even sure a beach landing was possible for Germany considering England's powerful navel presence. Who knows maybe they would have just put most of there resources in the V-2 program and launch missiles at them constantly till Britain finally gave up.

The German forces could have easily have invaded Britain.
The strategy was simple. Bomb all areas near the coast of Kent and then with superior air power drop in large numbers of troops. Added to this it would have been simple to launch sea reinforcements as the channel is only 21+ miles wide.
The evolution of this war in the battle for Britain was that the Germans changed their targets from the RAF bases, to the British cities, some say because the British, " inadvertently bombed German cities by "mistake,". This annoyed Goring who had said that if a German city was bombed the populace could call him a Pig. Which many apparently did after the German cities were bombed.
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German blitzkreig war wasn't going to be able to defeat the Soviet Union. Could they have reached Moscow and gotten a surrender? Could they have even gotten into Moscow, I'm not too sure. If they took Moscow the USSR might've surrendered, but if Stalin was really angry he might've made them fight all the way to the Pacific which would've meant that Stalin probably could've still managed a win.

Stalingrad proved Stalin's carelessness about human sacrifice and I'm sure that any German attempt at taking Moscow in the first few months would've had a very similar result.

The Germans weren't ready for street warfare so I doubt that Moscow or Leningrad would've fallen as easy even if they started months earlier (not to mention they didn't fall in the 5 years of war anyways).
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Look all, Plaza Red signed his name Caballero. This is a clue. It's very easy to discern who he is. He's advertising it. He's toying with us while putting so much out there for consumption. He signed this while stating he was on the Illuminati higher council. Very few Caballero's are the most powerful and connected people in the world. Very easy to figure out, think the financial sector.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I was just about to mention that. The German army was so superior that if it were not for the winter Russia would have most likely been doomed anyway. The question is if the defeat of Russia would be in time to re-enforce the Western front.


Well, and also, after Pearl Harbor Germany declared war on the U.S. to support Japan even though they weren't bound to. The U.S. still didn't really want to get into the European war, and if Hitler hadn't of declared on us, we might not have for a long time, if not ever. After all, the U.S. is the only nation Hitler actually declared war on. All others declared on him, or he never declared war (Blitzkrieg). We would have been content to beat Japan and let Hitler take Europe, whether we want to admit it or not.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
May need a tornado warning in Oklahoma soon.


That storm is going to track very close to the OKC area. Need to keep a close eye on it.
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Financial collapse of the euro will lead the the crash of the dollar and world. Martial law could be ordered after a crash, and a run on the banks. World wide transportation would shut down. NWO and FEMA step in. Christianity outlawed, considered a threat to the new world religion. So who's the Anti-Christ who's going to ride in to save and mislead millions after this world disaster of unknown magnitude. And Plaza thanks for finally answering my earlier question.
America could always switch back to the gold standard. Your overestimating the impact of the collapse of the Euro. It would be very bad but not dooms day.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


These are the errors that the Germans made:

Error 1: Miracle of Dunkirk: Luftwaffe did not destroy exposed British and French troops exposed on the beach after Hitler ordered ground forces to stop to rest.

Error 2: Battle of Britain: Britain survives because of failure by Luftwaffe to defeat British pilots.

Error 3.1 : Operation Barbarossa: Timing Failure: General Winter stops German advance. 2 months earlier and the Germans would probably have won anyway.

Error 3.2: Operation Barbarossa: 2 Front War: Not a good idea to fight on two fronts, probably should have defeated Britain first.
I was just about to mention that. The German army was so superior that if it were not for the winter Russia would have most likely been doomed anyway. The question is if the defeat of Russia would be in time to re-enforce the Western front.
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Financial collapse of the euro will lead the the crash of the dollar and world. Martial law could be ordered after a crash, and a run on the banks. World wide transportation would shut down. NWO and FEMA step in. Christianity outlawed, considered a threat to the new world religion. So who's the Anti-Christ who's going to ride in to save and mislead millions after this world disaster of unknown magnitude. And Plaza thanks for finally answering my earlier question.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
My father actually mentioned how he believes that Germany may try and take advantage of the situation. Not sure about the whole poor v rich idea.


I have heard rumblings too in some of the "Tin Foil Hat" crowd of a possible German power grab in Europe soon due to financial issues. They say they'll do it "legally" by gaining power in the E.U. and then "Unify" Europe again under their control. I mean, they are the most powerful nation financially, economically, and in leadership in Europe right now...
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN TX...SWRN/WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200...

VALID 282346Z - 290045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200
CONTINUES.

SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 200 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NWRN TX AND PORTIONS
OF SWRN/WRN/CNTRL OK. AREA FROM THE RED RIVER N-NEWD WILL BE
MONITORED DURING THE NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO TORNADO WATCH.

AT 2345Z...A STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING W-NWWD IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING FOUR CORNERS UPR DISTURBANCE...WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY 45 W OF SPS NEWD TO 15 N OF CQB. COMBINATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND WEAK UPR IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS W
TX IS AIDING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONT
OVER NWRN TX. DURING THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME PROBABLE ALONG THE OK PORTION OF THE FRONT
AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.
THOUGH SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY SIG HAIL WITH
DIAMETERS UP TO 3 INCHES/ AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SVR WEATHER THREAT...THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
LEAD TO ENLARGEMENT OF HODOGRAPHS OVER OK...WHICH MAY INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. THUS...PORTIONS OF SVR THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 200 OVER OK WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO TORNADO.

..GARNER.. 04/28/2012
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32690
Quoting Tribucanes:
Invading Russia was fatal. Splitting their forces on Leningrad and Stalingrad was the death move. Had Moscow been sacked, much different story. Maybe the biggest deciding point was the Battle of Britian where Germany's air-force was destroyed to a point that the Allies would eventually have air dominance after Normandy. The German's lost over a quarter of their air-force in that epic stand by the Brits.


These are the errors that the Germans made:

Error 1: Miracle of Dunkirk: Luftwaffe did not destroy exposed British and French troops exposed on the beach after Hitler ordered ground forces to stop to rest.

Error 2: Battle of Britain: Britain survives because of failure by Luftwaffe to defeat British pilots.

Error 3.1 : Operation Barbarossa: Timing Failure: General Winter stops German advance. 2 months earlier and the Germans would probably have won anyway.

Error 3.2: Operation Barbarossa: 2 Front War: Not a good idea to fight on two fronts, probably should have defeated Britain first.
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Quoting PlazaRed:
You can argue the toss all day long and I don't ever want to be the adjudicator but:-
The evidence shows that the Germans are in a very strong position in Europe at the moment.
Now I don't want to annoy Barbanz or other contributors to this blog but:-
The situation in Europe is dire with at least 4 countries about to fail, ( I live in one of them,)
The Germans hold the financial key to the game and they are being very conservative about it all.
In my opinion Europe will fail financially, not only because I am in it but because its unstable and it is about to undergo the equivalent of a financial "Eye wall replacement cycle,"
There will be the Northern "Rich Europe," and the southern "Farmer peasant,"Europe.
The only hope that mainland Europe has in the short to medium term is the stout sense of the Germans.
For those who are not too familiar with the Europe thing, there are about 500 million people in Europe, as opposed to about 320 million in the USA and 1200 million in China!
My father actually mentioned how he believes that Germany may try and take advantage of the situation. Not sure about the whole poor v rich idea.
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not only because I'm in it
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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