Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?
At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.
Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.
Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.
Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.
Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.
Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.
The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.
I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thunderbirds on Saturday did a very abbreviated show. I was at the beach on Friday for the practice - much more impressive. And no crowds!
According to the media, Sunday was cancelled due to water on the ground. It probably would been cancelled anyway due to the low ceiling, but I don't think it got that far.
Models are forecasting for the low-level trough to split from the mid-upper circulation some time within the next 48 hrs, IIRC...
Thanks. I, thankfully, spent all day on Sat fishing and yesterday with my kid so I did not get a chance to check on the Blog, or weather, over the weekend.
No, we had very heavy rains here on the Beach. They lost a lot of money. A few years ago, it was also rained out. This was the first one they had in a number of years.
Link
Yeah. My Bud down there did the same thing BrowardJeff did. Took the day off on Friday and watched the "full" rehearsal on the beach then had drinks at Blue Martini.......Nice way to spend a Friday.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1152 AM EDT MON APR 30 2012
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-301800-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1152 AM EDT MON APR 30 2012
.NOW...THOUGH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE BANDS
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS ONSHORE SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. THE STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL MEAN THAT SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO REACH INLAND INTO SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.
LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS SAME AREA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW...AND A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTHERN BREVARD AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES SOUTHWARD WITH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE BREEZY WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AND SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IF VENTURING OUT ON THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL.
&&
ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1215 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012
FLZ073>075-173-174-301645-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL MAINLAND MONROE FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
1215 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY
* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT
* AT 1204 PM EDT...REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG WINDS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 55 MPH
POSSIBLE. AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ENTER INTO THE MIAMI METRO AREAS
FROM BISCAYNE BAY AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
* THESE WINDS WILL AFFECT...
MIAMI METRO AREAS AND INTERIOR MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS.
We are in a little lull right now. I'm wondering if I should try getting out now, while the getting is good.
Hi nigel.... sorry I didn't greet u earlier! I'm willing to share some of my rain.... interested?
LOL
Thanks. Nice to have a high res shot to spot the naked low out huh?............Nice catch/observation/analysis....... :)
The widespread showers as opposed to the concentration in one smaller area definitely supports your description. I'm wondering if this ULL will move out before Wednesday. Sometimes they hang around.
"This has been the wettest April in the UK in over a century, with some areas seeing three times their usual average, figures from the Met Office show.
Some 121.8mm of rain has fallen, beating the previous record of 120.3mm which was set in 2000."
Link
You guys may have to hang in there for another day or so before the upper trough flattens out enough to put a lid on the convection.
Meso.
Nice Photo, Scary but Nice.
Link
Where was that?
SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL GET THE AREA OFF TO A WARM START FOR LAST DAY OF THE MONTH...AND A WARM MONTH IT HAS BEEN SEE BELOW FOR THE 1ST-29TH NUMBERS. UNFORTUNATELY THE WARMTH WILL BE CONTINUING AS THE UPPER RIDGE ON WEAKENS BRIEFLY TODAY AND TUESDAY THEN BEGINS TO REBUILD.
A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.
From Wikipedia "Geomagnetic Reversals":
Effects on biosphere and human society
Not long after the first geomagnetic polarity time scales were produced, scientists began exploring the possibility that reversals could be linked to extinctions. Most such proposals rest on the assumption that the Earth's field has much lower intensity during reversals. Possibly the first such hypothesis was that high energy particles trapped in the Van Allen radiation belt could be liberated and bombard the Earth.[35][36] Detailed calculations confirm that, if the Earth's dipole field disappeared entirely (leaving the quadrupole and higher components), most of the atmosphere could be reached by high energy particles. However, the atmosphere would stop them. Instead there would be secondary radiation of 10 Be or 36 Cl from collisions of cosmic rays with the atmosphere. There is evidence that this occurs both during secular variation[37][38] and during reversals.[39][40]
Another hypothesis by McCormac and Evans assumes that the Earth's field would disappear entirely during reversals.[41] They argue that the atmosphere of Mars may have been eroded away by the solar wind because it had no magnetic field to protect it. They predict that ions would be stripped away from Earth's atmosphere above 100 km. However, the evidence from paleointensity measurements is that the magnetic field does not disappear. Based on paleointensity data for the last 800,000 years,[42] the magnetopause is still estimated to be at about 3 Earth radii during the Brunhes-Matuyama reversal.[35] Even if the magnetic field disappeared, the solar wind may induce a sufficient magnetic field in the Earth's ionosphere to shield the surface from energetic particles.[43]
Hypotheses have also been advanced linking reversals to mass extinctions.[44] Many such arguments were based on an apparent periodicity in the rate of reversals; more careful analyses show that the reversal record is not periodic.[14] It may be, however, that the ends of superchrons have caused vigorous convection leading to widespread volcanism, and that the subsequent airborne ash caused extinctions.[45]
Tests of correlations between extinctions and reversals are difficult for a number of reasons. Larger animals are too scarce in the fossil record for good statistics, so paleontologists have analyzed microfossil extinctions. Even microfossil data can be unreliable if there are hiatuses in the fossil record. It can appear that the extinction occurs at the end of a polarity interval when the rest of that polarity interval was simply eroded away.[19] Statistical analysis shows no evidence for a correlation between reversals and extinctions.[46][35]
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1231 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012
AMZ610-FLZ063-066-069-070-301845-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-GLADES-HENDRY-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
1231 PM EDT MON APR 30 2012
.NOW...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS ACROSS
COLLIER COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH
AND PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR 35 MPH WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AN OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE EXCEPT IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WHERE ONE INCH IS
POSSIBLE.
$$
"Since no excursions have been recorded within human history, it is unknown precisely what effects one would have. However, it is likely that nothing serious would occur, as the human species has certainly lived through at least one such event; Homo erectus and possibly Homo heidelbergensis lived through the Matuyama reversal with no known ill effect, and excursions are shorter lived and do not result in permanent changes to the magnetic field. The major hazard to modern society is likely to be similar to those associated with geomagnetic storms, where satellites and power supplies may be damaged, although compass navigation would also be affected. Some forms of life which are thought to navigate based on magnetic fields may be disrupted, but again it is suggested that these species have survived excursions in the past. Since excursion periods are not always global, any effect might well only be experienced in certain places, with others relatively unaffected. The time period involved could be as little as a century, or as much as 10,000 years."
Be very cautious using the estimates from GR2Analyst as exact values. The algorithm used in the program is for the Maximum-Estimated Hail Size, and the goal in mind was for 75% of the observed hail to be smaller and 25% of the observed hail to be larger when compared to the computed estimate.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the estimates - especially at the higher end - where the algorithm can be tricked by areas of dense, wet hailstones.
I have a GR2Analyst POSH/MEHS blog post that links to more information on this, if interested.
Slowly, but surely, the negative anomalies along the equator are vanishing. I've argued in the past that the transition from La Nina to El Nino is slowed by the -PDO's affect of cooler waters. I've noticed recently that the -PDO doesn't look quite as strong as it has the past year or so and that might help transition us into a more warm-neutral ENSO as we head into early hurricane season. I truly believe that we will have at least weak El Nino conditions by August.
Date: April 29, 2012
Uploaded by: cookhealthyfast
Sachiko, 33-year-old Ph.D. student living in Tokyo - interview in her actual visit to the US
Title: 119 of 132 people positive from sampling survey of radioactive substances in urine in Iwate
Source: Fukushima Diary
Date: Apr. 29, 2012
Iwate prefecture conducted sampling survey of radioactive substances in urine in Ichinoseki city and Oshu city.
The result published on 3/2/2012 shows cesium was measured from 119 of 132 people (90.1%). The highest reading was 6 Bq/L.
On 4/16/2012, the chairman of Iwate association of obstetricians and gynecologists, Kobayashi sent public questions to Tasso, Iwate governor. [...]
Translations of Selected Questions
[Are] the meeting minutes of the assessing committee disclosed ? If not, we demand to know the reason.
Is there any schedule to conduct research about the diet of the children who they measured cesium from the urine of and about their symptoms ? If not, we demand to know the reason.
We think we shall continue to conduct childrens urine test and health inspection from now on. What is the view of Iwate prefecture ?
Please tell us how much of cesium per L in urine corresponds to 1 mSv/h or 100mSv/Life on the assumption that a 40kg of a child continuously takes cesium for 365 days after Fukushima accident / urine = 1L/d.
Please give us documented answers for those questions above by 5/16/2012. We will disclose the content of the answer to media.
Good example of orographic clouds. (clouds caused by the changing shape of the land beneath)
Sea fog being lifted over the buildings. Pretty cool looking stuff..
Viewing: 1501 - 1551
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