Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 13:00 GMT le 28 avril 2012 +51
At last week's 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 - 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph--so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph. Yowza. That's well in excess of the 200 mph minimum wind speed a top end EF-5 tornado has. The Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011 had winds estimated at 225 - 250 mph. That tornado ripped pavement from the ground, leveled buildings to the concrete slabs they were built on, and killed 161 people. It's not a pretty thought to consider what Wilma would have done to Cancun, Key West, or Fort Myers had the hurricane hit with sustained winds of what the Joplin tornado had.


Figure 1. Hurricane Wilma's pinhole eye as seen at 8:22 a.m. CDT Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2005, by the crew aboard NASA's international space station as the complex flew 222 miles above the storm. At the time, Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane in history, with a central pressure of 882 mb and sustained surface winds estimated at 185 mph. The storm was located in the Caribbean Sea, 340 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Image source: NASA's Space Photo Gallery.


Figure 2. Damage in Joplin, Missouri after the EF-5 tornado of May 22, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographer thebige.

Official all-time strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane: 190 mph
The official record for strongest winds in an Atlantic hurricane is 190 mph, for Hurricane Allen of 1980 as it was entering the Gulf of Mexico, and for Hurricane Camille of 1969, as it was making landfall in Pass Christian, Mississippi. In Dr. Bob Sheets' and Jack Williams' book, Hurricane Watch, they recount the Hurricane Hunters flight into Camile as the hurricane reached peak intensity: On Sunday afternoon, August 17, and Air Force C-130 piloted by Marvin Little penetrated Camille's eye and measured a pressure of 26.62 inches of mercury. "Just as we were nearing the eyewall cloud we suddenly broke into a clear area and could see the sea surface below," the copilot, Robert Lee Clark, wrote in 1982. "What a sight! Although everyone on the crew was experienced except me, no one had seen the wind whip the sea like that before...Instead of the green and white splotches normally found in a storm, the sea surface was in deep furrows running along the wind direction....The velocity was beyond the descriptions used in our training and far beyond anything we had ever seen." So, the 190 mph winds of Camille were an estimate that was off the scale from anything that had ever been observed in the past. The books that the Hurricane Hunters carried, filled with photos of the sea state at various wind speeds, only goes up to 150 mph (Figure 2). I still used this book to estimate surface winds when I flew with the Hurricane Hunters in the late 1980s, and the books are still carried on the planes today. In the two Category 5 hurricanes I flew into, Hugo and Gilbert, I never observed the furrowing effect referred to above. Gilbert had surface winds estimated at 175 mph based on what we measured at flight level, so I believe the 190 mph wind estimate in Camille may be reasonable.


Figure 3. Appearance of the sea surface in winds of 130 knots (150 mph). Image credit: Wind Estimations from Aerial Observations of Sea Conditions (1954), by Charlie Neumann.


Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Camille taken at 22:15 UTC August 17, 1969, a few hours before landfall in Mississippi. At the time, Camille had the highest sustained winds of any Atlantic hurricane in history--190 mph.

The infamous hurricane hunter flight into Wilma during its rapid intensification
While I was at last week's conference, I had a conversation with Rich Henning, a flight meteorologist for NOAA's Hurricane Hunters, who served for many years as a Air Reconnaissance Weather Officer (ARWO) for the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Rich told me the story of the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Hurricane Wilma in the early morning hours of October 19, 2005, as Wilma entered its explosive deepening phase. The previous airplane, which had departed Category 1 Wilma six hours previously, flew through Wilma at an altitude of 5,000 feet. They measured a central pressure of 954 mb when they departed the eye at 23:10 UTC. The crew of the new plane assumed that the hurricane, though intensifying, was probably not a major hurricane, and decided that they would also go in at 5,000 feet. Winds outside the eyewall were less than hurricane force, so this seemed like a reasonable assumption. Once the airplane hit the eyewall, they realized their mistake. Flight level winds quickly rose to 186 mph, far in excess of Category 5 strength, and severe turbulence rocked the aircraft. The aircraft was keeping a constant pressure altitude to maintain their height above the ocean during the penetration, but the area of low pressure at Wilma's center was so intense that the airplane descended at over 1,000 feet per minute during the penetration in order to maintain a constant pressure altitude. By they time they punched into the incredibly tiny 4-mile wide eye, which had a central pressure of just 901 mb at 04:32 UTC, the plane was at a dangerously low altitude of 1,500 feet--not a good idea in a Category 5 hurricane. The pilot ordered an immediate climb, and the plane exited the other side of Wilma's eyewall at an altitude of 10,000 feet. They maintained this altitude for the remainder of the flight. During their next pass through the eye at 06:11 UTC, the diameter of the eye had shrunk to an incredibly tiny two miles--the smallest hurricane eye ever measured. During their third and final pass through the eye at 0801 UTC, a dropsonde found a central pressure of 882 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane. In the span of just 24 hours, Wilma had intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to a 175 mph category 5 hurricane--an unprecedented event for an Atlantic hurricane. Since the pressure was still falling, it is likely that Wilma became even stronger after the mission departed.

I'll have a new post by Tuesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters
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151. TropicalAnalystwx13 18:25 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315
152. LargoFl 18:26 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MOC027-139-281900-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0105.120428T1814Z-120428T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
114 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 108 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FULTON...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTGOMERY CITY...WELLSVILLE...WILLIAMSBURG...SHAMROCK...MINE OLA...
NEW FLORENCE...BUELL...KINGDOM CITY AND DANVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3906 9172 3906 9163 3910 9163 3915 9150
3914 9149 3890 9135 3871 9200 3891 9211
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 246DEG 26KT 3883 9193

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

BYRD
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153. LargoFl 18:28 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
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154. LargoFl 18:31 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
this washed ashore in california 4/26..unknown species?.....
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155. AtHomeInTX 18:34 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Quoting BahaHurican:
I don't know what post u r responding to, but I think most of us can identify with the potential wonder of seeing the power and beauty of a cat 5 from above, even if it's not something they themselves may want to experience. I don't think even the Doc would be offended. After all, he's done what most of us haven't, that is, fly into the eye of an intensifying hurricane.

I gotta head out now... was waiting on someone but now need to leave.

Have fun ya'll.



Yeah. Just didn't want to be irresponsible. Just some heavenly musings from a very, if reluctantly, grounded body. I have gotten in trouble before...something about an alligator mouth and a parakeet behind. Lol. I have nothing but respect for those intrepid souls who do fly those missions. They have the guts and the education to do what's important. My hat's off to them.
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156. LargoFl 18:34 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
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157. Patrap 18:40 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
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158. MAweatherboy1 18:41 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 281817Z - 281945Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS E-CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW
ISSUANCE IS 80 PERCENT.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WEAK CYCLONE JUST W OF THE SAINT LOUIS
METRO AREA AND A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT ARCING E/SEWD ACROSS
SRN IL INTO SWRN IND...WITH A SOMEWHAT MORE ILL-DEFINED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SW OF THIS CYCLONE. A CLUSTER OF
NON-SEVERE TSTMS HAS PERSISTED NE OF THE CYCLONE. BUT MORE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED INVOF THE CYCLONE APPEARING TO BE TIED TO
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING MO. THE
AIR MASS S OF THE FRONT IN MO IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
2000-2500 J/KG GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. AS MLCIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL
LIKELY FORM. STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
40 KT ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT. RELATIVELY
WEAK AND GENERALLY VEERED WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY LIMIT TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

..GRAMS.. 04/28/2012
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159. seflagamma 18:47 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Quoting Grothar:
There were a number of things odd about Wilma. By looking at the radar loop, it was assumed that the large eye was calm, since it appeared to have no weather inside. However, anyone who was in that area knows that the winds never stopped once. Even Brian Norcross (the local weatherman) was telling people that they were in the calm part of the storm and the winds were ferocious. I never saw a hurricane do that. The other noticable thing, was that the winds were more tornadic in nature, rather that blowing in one direction. They were twisting the entire time until that east wall came over. Anyone else in the area notice this?





My neighborhood was in the calm of the eye in NW Broward. No one believes us but after the front end passed thru and destroyed a lot of trees and fences... it got calm.. we had no power to know what was going on but we figured it was the "eye".. we ALL went outside for about 15 minutes to evaluate the damage and then to the SW we saw black rolling clouds coming and we all ran inside quickly hunkered down and got slammed...
Shingles coming off some of the roofs sounded like machine gun fireing...a palm tree ended up in our pool, the back fence ended up in front street..

The large tree was knocked down by front end of storm, and it laid across our drive way.. when backend came thru it was picked straight up and laid in the opposite direction.. I have posted pictures before of that crazy scene...

We had a little calm in the eye of Wilma..You were probably too far to the east and were probably near the eye wall the entire time.
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160. AtHomeInTX 18:47 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Hmmm? Seems GFS is having some issues...

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD TROUGH BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS IS MAKING ITS
WAY WESTWARD INTO THE GULF WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE A
STRONG OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH ITS 12Z RUN BY SUN MORNING. THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT GRID SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS THAT
MAKE ITS FORECAST SUSPECT. FROM 06Z TO 12Z SUN...THE GFS STAMPS
OUT 2.40 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE GULF NEAR CAY SAL
BANK AROUND 24N80W BUT ONLY 0.81 INCHES OF THAT IS ATTRIBUTED TO
CONVECTION. THESE FEEDBACK ISSUES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
CAUSE THE GFS TO BE THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP A LOW PRES SYSTEM
FROM THE TROUGH. A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF AND UKMET WAS USED FOR THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS
MEANT MOVING A WEAKER OPEN TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN GULF MORE
SLOWLY THAN THE GFS.
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161. ncstorm 18:49 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
The Euro seems to have the same idea as the CMC but dosent show it as a low but energy moving into the GOM in the same time frame





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162. seflagamma 18:50 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Quoting Grothar:


Hey gamma! If you are still on, can you hear those jets going over? We are having an Air Show today on the beach. With that rain coming in,it might be cancelled. Looks like some heavy storms this afternoon.


Hey Grothar, I am way out west in Weston so cannot hear them here...
they may get some rain free weather this afternoon for the 4 hour show after all.

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163. TropicalAnalystwx13 18:51 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
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164. seflagamma 18:54 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Oh, I went home during lunch break to check on Harley and emptyed both my rain guage and my neighborhood received 1.6" of rain since last night until 1pm today.

so that is pretty good for April in just a few hours.
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165. ncstorm 18:59 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
again, off the SC coast.

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166. seflagamma 19:00 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Speaking of Wilma, here is the example I spoke of earlier.

Picture of our Macadamia Nut Tree after the front end of Wilma blew it over.
This picture was taken during the "eye" of Wilma when we all went outside for a short period of time. Notice the mail box is still standing.




This picture of the same tree was taken after Wilma's back side passed thru. You can see it was picked up and placed in the opposite direction. The mail box was not even taken down.
You can see it was much more windy after Wilma passed thru than it was during the "eye" in above pic.




We were so lucky, back then we did not have shutters so we had plywood over our windows and our garage and roof were new so they were cat 3 strength strong...

Wilma was not suppose to have been a strong storm for SE Fla.. forcast until right before it landed was like for Cat 1...it was a weak Cat 3 or strong Cat 2 when it went over S Fla.
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167. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 19:01 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Quoting cyclonekid:


Talk about an eye "wobbling". It was doing loop-de-loops :)
circle dance of death
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168. MAweatherboy1 19:08 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST OF
SAINT LOUIS MISSOURI TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MATTOON ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM NEAR STL AREA EAST ACROSS
SCNTRL IL. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FUELING THIS DEVELOPMENT
WILL PROMOTE STOUT STORM UPDRAFTS AMIDST SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND
HIGH WINDS. THERE MAY DEVELOP A MORE FOCUSED CORRIDOR ALONG THE WARM
FRONT WHERE PERSISTENT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING VERY LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL FLOW
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN IL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR PERSISTENT BACKING THAT COULD SUPPORT A GREATER
TORNADO POTENTIAL THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. IF THIS SCENARIO
BECOMES MORE LIKELY...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN AREAS
CURRENTLY COVERED BY THE SVR TSTM WATCH.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.


...CARBIN
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169. Skyepony (Mod) 19:14 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
The search is on for the meteorite pieces that lit up the sky last week.. The meteorites landed not far from Sutter's Mill in El Dorado County, CA.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
circle dance of death
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170. nigel20 19:15 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Thanks Dr. Masters...i would not be surprised if Wilma indeed have sustains winds of over 200mph,i think sometimes the winds at the surface is underestimated, but I guess we'll never know...good afternoon fellow bloggers...hopefully you guys are having a good weekend so far
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171. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 19:15 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
XX/XX/XX


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172. Patrap 19:18 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Meteorites found in Calif. along path of fireball
'One of the oldest things known to man'

Updated: Thursday, 26 Apr 2012, 6:55 AM CDT



SCOTT SONNER,Associated Press
RENO, Nev. (AP) — Robert Ward has been hunting and collecting meteorites for more than 20 years, so he knew he'd found something special in the Sierra foothills along the path of a flaming fireball that shook parts of Northern California and Nevada with a sonic boom over the weekend.

And scientists have confirmed his suspicions: it's one of the more primitive types of space rocks out there, dating to the early formation of the solar system 4 to 5 billion years ago.

"It was just, needless to say, a thrilling moment," Ward of Prescott, Ariz., told The Associated Press in a telephone interview Wednesday as he walked through an old cemetery in search of more meteorites about 35 miles northeast of Sacramento.

He found the first piece on Tuesday along a road between a baseball field and park on the edge of Lotus near Coloma, where James W. Marshall first discovered gold in California, at Sutter's Mill in 1848.

Ward, who has found meteorites in every continent but Antarctica and goes by "AstroBob" on his website, said he "instantly knew" it was a rare meteorite known as "CM" — carbonaceous chondrite — based in part on the "fusion crusts from atmospheric entry" on one side of the rock.

"It is one of the oldest things known to man and one of the rarest types of meteorites there is," he said. "It contains amino acids and organic compounds that are extremely important to science."

Ward actually has two rocks but suspects they were part of the same small meteorite that broke on impact. Each weighs about 10 grams — about the same as two nickels. He said his only previous finds that rival this one were three lunar meteorites he found years ago in the Middle East.

Experts say the flaming meteor was probably about the size of a minivan when it entered the Earth's atmosphere with a loud boom and about one-third of the explosive force of the atomic bomb. It was seen from Sacramento, Calif., to Las Vegas and parts of northern Nevada.

An event of that size might happen once a year around the world, said Don Yeomans of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "But most of them occur over the ocean or an uninhabited area, he said.

"Getting to see one is something special," he said. He added, "most meteors you see in the night's sky are the size of tiny stones or even grains of sand, and their trail lasts all of a second or two."
The meteor probably weighed about 154,300 pounds, said Bill Cooke, a specialist in meteors at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. At the time of disintegration, he said, it probably released energy equivalent to a 5-kiloton explosion — the Hiroshima bomb was 15 kilotons.

"You don't often have kiloton rocks flying over your head," he said.

The boom, another expert said, was caused by the speed with which the space rock entered the atmosphere. Meteorites enter Earth's upper atmosphere at somewhere between 22,000 mph and 44,000 mph — faster than the speed of sound, thus creating a sonic boom.

The friction between the rock and the air is so intense that "it doesn't even burn it up, it vaporizes," said Tim Spahr, director of the Minor Planet Center at Harvard University.

John T. Wasson, a longtime professor and expert in meteorites at UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, said he understood that in addition to Lotus, another small meteorite had been in nearby Coloma,

Bits of the meteor could be strewn over an area as long as 10 miles, most likely stretching west from Coloma, he said.

"I'm sure more will be found, I'm hoping, including some fairly big pieces," Wasson said. "The fact that two pieces already have been found means one knows where to look."

Wasson suspected hundreds of dealers and collectors already have joined the search. He said it was important to recover the meteorites soon because any rain will cause them to degrade, losing their sodium and potassium.

"From my viewpoint as a meteorite researcher," he said, "I'm hopeful some big pieces are found right away."

Yeomens confirmed this type of meteorite is one of the oldest, dating to the origin of the solar system 4 to 5 billion years ago. And it's "actually kind of unusual," he said.

Yeomens said it's got two of the most important chemicals that scientists look for: carbon and a form of water. In fact, this type of space rock is likely full of water and would have made a good candidate for the new space company announced Tuesday that plans to mine asteroids, he said.

"And this one landed in their backyard for a lot less than they planned to spend," he said.

The mini-van sized asteroid wasn't on NASA's lengthy list of near Earth objects that they track coming close to the planet, so it took scientists by surprise. "There are millions of objects of that size that we don't know about," he said. "They're too small to image unless they're right up on top of you."

___

AP Science Writer Seth Borenstein contributed to this story from Washington, D.C.
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175. TropicalAnalystwx13 19:21 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
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176. MAweatherboy1 19:23 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
CPC seems to be getting more aggresive on a cool down for most of the country...



However before that we are looking to go through a warm up...

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177. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 19:24 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Quoting Skyepony:
The search is on for the meteorite pieces that lit up the sky last week.. The meteorites landed not far from Sutter's Mill in El Dorado County, CA.


those rocks are 4.5 billion years old leftovers from the beginnings

thanks for the tune
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179. TropicalAnalystwx13 19:26 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
CPC seems to be getting more aggresive on a cool down for most of the country...



However before that we are looking to go through a warm up...


Yeah, the GFS shows a cool down.

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181. MAweatherboy1 19:27 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, the GFS shows a cool down.


We'll probably see limited severe weather potential for much of the first half of May due to the below average temps
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182. nigel20 19:28 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
Wilma did a lot more damage in S.E.Florida than they thought it would..A downtown Miami office building after WilmaAmazing pin-hole eye.. Thankfully not over Florida..

The last pic really showed how powerful the winds were
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184. weatherbro 19:29 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Looks like most models have backed away from developing a trough over Florida(except the GFS which is an outlier).

In fact the Euro has been most consistent in building a ridge over north/central Florida all next week-keeping any disturbances at bay.



So as you can see, us Central Floridians will be lucked-out. Besides, rainy Season doesn't start til May 27th.:)
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185. Barefootontherocks 19:31 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Sorry this is so long. Just a recap and some links from the wublog archives of leftyy's blog the night Wilma bombed out. I was lurking, and maybe you had to be there, but the drama when the hurricane hunters' data stopped transmitting was as real as it gets in cyberspace.

Link to page 20 of leftyy's blog from which the comment below is quoted. (Based on 50 comments/page.)
968. leftyy420 4:09 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
wannabe they are at 5000ft. here use my link

Link


Lots of preliminaries in the blog including some handles you'll recognize as still blogging today.
From page 14.
678. 8888888889gg 1:15 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
i think when we get to 11 pm tonight we have the winds up to 145mph and 925mb and by 5 am 160 or 175 mph with a 902mb or a 899mb any one think i am right?

1037. atmosweather 4:42 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
177 would translate to minimal cat 5 at the surface lol, data obviously a little wrong there? or is it

and later
1105. 8888888889gg 4:58 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
you got to be kidding me too when i say it is going to be a cat 5 hurricane i did not mean today wow
1211. 8888888889gg 5:35 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
wpb05 could we see winds get up to 200mph and could we see the mb go down to 888mb or 875mb? let me no

1416. leftyy420 6:50 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
lol 2nm wide eye

URNT12 KNHC 190648
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/06:11:10Z
B. 16 deg 58 min N
082 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2132 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 202 deg 168 kt
G. 109 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 892 mb
I. 10 C/ 3058 m
J. 24 C/ 3034 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C2
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

1428. leftyy420 6:55 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
motion looks to be wnw based on recon cenetr fixes

10-17-2005
11:00am-998mb 16.3n 80.0w
2:00pm-997mb 16.1n 80.0w
4:05pm-989mb 15.83n 79.87w
5:32pm-989mb 15.77n 79.88w

10-18-05
12:09am-984mb 15.65n 79.87w
1:56am-982mb 15.67n 79.93w
3:54pm-970mb 16.60n 81.42w
5:42pm-963mb 16.60n 81.53w
7:09pm-954mb 16.60n 81.68w

10-19-05
12:32am-901mb 16.87n 81.93w
2:11am-892mb 16.97n 82.18w

1443. leftyy420 7:02 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
i personally think we are in uncharted tertory

Then, beginning here...
1459. weatherwannabe 7:07 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
Something is wrong with the plane

This blog is a high point from the early wunderground days.
Member Since: 29 avril 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16325
186. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 19:32 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40571
187. weatherbro 19:33 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
The Hpc has backed away from what they forecasted yesterday.

Member Since: 26 mai 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1155
188. seflagamma 19:34 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Quoting weatherbro:
Looks like most models have backed away from developing a trough over Florida(except the GFS which is an outlier).

In fact the Euro has been most consistent in building a ridge over north/central Florida all next week-keeping any disturbances at bay.



So as you can see, us Central Floridians will be lucked-out. Besides, rainy Season doesn't start til May 27th.:)


Tell us that here in SE Florida. We got a lot of rain last week and now this weekend and next week still more coming.
I think Rainy Season already arrived in our area!

Wish we could send some to Central and North East Florida...
Member Since: 29 août 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485
190. seflagamma 19:36 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Hey BF, that was a crazy week when Wilma bombed out.. after Katrina & Rita we thought we had seen it all.

then Ms Wilma comes and blows up!

I love this from Lefty:

1443. leftyy420 7:02 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
i personally think we are in uncharted tertory
Member Since: 29 août 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485
191. Thrawst 19:38 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Nasty clouds starting to form over Nassau now.


Member Since: 18 juillet 2010 Posts: 49 Comments: 1064
193. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 19:39 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Quoting MetMan2012:


As long as it doesn't interfere with the warming of SSTs, I'll be content.
maybe this will be another year without a hit for south fla and the sst's can get as hot as they want cause it won't matter with no hits but it would be great for swimming
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40571
195. TropicalAnalystwx13 19:44 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Sorry this is so long. Just a recap and some links from the wublog archives of leftyy's blog the night Wilma bombed out. I was lurking, and maybe you had to be there, but the drama when the hurricane hunters' data stopped transmitting was as real as it gets in cyberspace.

Link to page 20 of leftyy's blog from which the comment below is quoted. (Based on 50 comments/page.)
968. leftyy420 4:09 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
wannabe they are at 5000ft. here use my link

Link


Lots of preliminaries in the blog including some handles you'll recognize as still blogging today.
From page 14.
678. 8888888889gg 1:15 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
i think when we get to 11 pm tonight we have the winds up to 145mph and 925mb and by 5 am 160 or 175 mph with a 902mb or a 899mb any one think i am right?

1037. atmosweather 4:42 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
177 would translate to minimal cat 5 at the surface lol, data obviously a little wrong there? or is it

and later
1105. 8888888889gg 4:58 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
you got to be kidding me too when i say it is going to be a cat 5 hurricane i did not mean today wow
1211. 8888888889gg 5:35 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
wpb05 could we see winds get up to 200mph and could we see the mb go down to 888mb or 875mb? let me no

1416. leftyy420 6:50 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
lol 2nm wide eye

URNT12 KNHC 190648
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/06:11:10Z
B. 16 deg 58 min N
082 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2132 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 202 deg 168 kt
G. 109 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 892 mb
I. 10 C/ 3058 m
J. 24 C/ 3034 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C2
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

1428. leftyy420 6:55 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
motion looks to be wnw based on recon cenetr fixes

10-17-2005
11:00am-998mb 16.3n 80.0w
2:00pm-997mb 16.1n 80.0w
4:05pm-989mb 15.83n 79.87w
5:32pm-989mb 15.77n 79.88w

10-18-05
12:09am-984mb 15.65n 79.87w
1:56am-982mb 15.67n 79.93w
3:54pm-970mb 16.60n 81.42w
5:42pm-963mb 16.60n 81.53w
7:09pm-954mb 16.60n 81.68w

10-19-05
12:32am-901mb 16.87n 81.93w
2:11am-892mb 16.97n 82.18w

1443. leftyy420 7:02 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
i personally think we are in uncharted tertory

Then, beginning here...
1459. weatherwannabe 7:07 AM GMT on October 19, 2005
Something is wrong with the plane

This blog is a high point from the early wunderground days.

I wish there was TWC coverage available of when Wilma explosively intensified.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315
196. gordydunnot 19:46 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Don't try and predict the weather in s.fl., especially more than 2 days in advance. And don't worry about water temps., come August you generally have to swim a little of coast and dive down about 6 to 7 feet to find some refreshing water temps..
Member Since: 18 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044
197. seflagamma 19:47 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
BF now has me looking at old blogs about Wilma.. I'm in lefty's now.

I mentioned how we were not forcast to get hit hard until just hours before the storm came.. here is more proof of that.. how all the sudden the morning of the storm we are told to prepare for a big one...when day before just a TS or cat 1 would hit us. Lucky I was here on WU and we all knew to prepare for a bad storm.

here is an oldie that is still around:

245. ProgressivePulse 4:13 AM AST on October 24, 2005 0
Morning all, winds in WPB out of the SE gusting to 45. NHC just on local news with what east coast can expect at current intensity, south of the eyewall. Said the West Palm and surrounding areas can expect sustained winds of up to 100mph gusts to 120mph. Wow what a difference from yesterday, good thing I took the extra precaution. Winds really kicking up now.



oh my goodness, LMAO reading some of these old posts... too funny.. here's another.

251. naplesguy 4:16 AM AST on October 24, 2005 0
lefty,
I have a fully stocked wine cellar and, if I lose power, you know what that means? I can't let them go to waste...
Member Since: 29 août 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485
199. seflagamma 20:01 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Here is my last post on lefty's blog before I lost power! reading back to all those times. Doc, Sub, so many names some no longer post here..



543. seflagamma 6:54 AM AST on October 24, 2005 +0
Just got up again after going back to bed around 4am.
It is almost 7am now and the winds are howling and roaring. Raining. Winds from EAst now and wipping my trees. In gusts they lay flat. It is bad now and the worse is yet to come. One wall of screen in my patio (east side) has blown in. I see it is just now making landfall around Marco (if what is see is correct). Did not have time to read your postings since 4pm. I will probably lose electricity any time now. Good luck everyone... I will post until power goes out...ops it just flickered!!! Gamma



MetMan, I don't think you were around this early even in your first handle that got banned...

Member Since: 29 août 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485
200. seflagamma 20:01 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
now all that is going to flip the page and no one will see them! bummer...

Member Since: 29 août 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485
201. Skyepony (Mod) 20:06 GMT le 28 avril 2012    
Wilma recon..

Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29344

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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