Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tornado hits France; unprecedented April heat in Europe
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:44 GMT le 01 mai 2012 +39
A rare EF-1 tornado with 73 - 112 mph winds (117 - 180 kph) hit Toulouse, France on Sunday, causing minor damage that included collapsed walls, uprooted trees, and cars moved out of place. The tornado touched down 15 - 20 km south of Toulouse in Southwest France at 7:10 pm local time, and baseball-sized hail (4 cm) also hit the region. According to the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD), this was the first tornado in France in 2012. French tornadoes are rare; there were just three tornadoes in the country in 2011. The European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) (as summarized by Wikipedia) lists 15 tornadoes for all of Europe so far in 2012. Most of the twisters (nine) were in Turkey. For comparison, an average of 495 tornadoes touched down in the U.S. during the period January - April over the years 2009 - 2011. A key reason for the lack of tornadoes in Europe is that the atmosphere is usually not unstable enough. Tornadoes require warm, moist, low-density air near the surface, and cold, dry, high-density air aloft to provide a lot of instability. The Baltic Sea and North Sea to the north of Europe moderate cold air flowing south from the pole, reducing the amount of instability over Europe.


Video 1. A rare French tornado kicks up dust near Toulouse, France on April 29, 2012.

Unprecedented April heat hits Central and Eastern Europe
A European heat wave of unparalleled intensity for so early in the year smashed all-time April heat records over much of Central and Eastern Europe on Saturday and Sunday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, new national April heat records were set in Belarus, Germany, Austria, Lithuania, Moldova, and Poland, and hundreds of stations in Germany, Austria, France, Italy, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Russia recorded their hottest April temperatures on record. Moscow hit 28.6°C (84°F) on Sunday, the hottest April reading in the city since record keeping began 130 years ago. The culprit for the heat wave and French tornado is a large low pressure system off the coast of France whose counter-clockwise flow has been pumping hot air from the Sahara Desert northwards into Europe. The low is expected to continue to bring unusually hot weather to most of Central and Eastern Europe for the remainder of the week.

New all-time April national heat records set over the past few days:

Poland: 31.7°C (89.18°F) at Tomaszow on 4/29
Germany: 32.2°C (90.0°F) at Munich on 4/28
Austria: 31.8°C (89.2°F) at Ranshoten on 4/28
Belarus: 30.4°C ( 86.7°F) at Zitovici on 4/29
Moldova 32.5°C
Lithuania

Jeff Masters
Categories: Tornado Heat
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601. WxGeekVA 01:53 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting weatherh98:


I have a 4 s and I'm on it now what do I do?


Put your finger on the image, wait until the window pops up, then choose "copy image". After that, start a comment, then click on the image button above the comment space and paste it there. Then you can click post and it should appear on the blog if you did it right.
Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323
602. weatherh98 01:53 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Put your finger on the image, wait until the window pops up, then choose "copy image". After that, start a comment, then click on the image button above the comment space and paste it there. Then you can click post and it should appear on the blog if you did it right.
Oh sweet
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091
603. weatherh98 01:56 GMT le 03 mai 2012    


I seriously love y'all!! Learned two things tonight!
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091
604. bohonkweatherman 01:59 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
It is getting dangerously dry around South Central Texas again, 87 brush fires in April and here is a Special News Report : http://www.kxan.com/dpp/news/local/austin/brush-fi res-spark-with-no-rain-in-sight
Member Since: 5 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
605. CaicosRetiredSailor 02:02 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Wind Power...

http://sciblogs.co.nz/hot-topic/2012/05/03/the-tr uth-about-wind-energy/

Shocking new revelations about the impact of excessive use of wind power on our planet - it could blow us out of our orbit around the sun! Oh, and coal is really, really, tasty...

; )
Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5133
606. TropicalAnalystwx13 02:05 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25328
607. aspectre 02:08 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Linking cuz the forum-program breaks overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters in web-addresses... 604 bohonkweatherman: Brush fires spark with no rain in sight
Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
608. HurricaneTracker01 02:11 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where do you get your images?
Member Since: 1 août 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 125
609. TropicalAnalystwx13 02:16 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting HurricaneTracker01:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where do you get your images?

Are you referring to post #606?
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25328
610. wxmod 02:34 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting sunlinepr:

Wild summer a comin!
Member Since: 4 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1233
611. Chicklit 02:37 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Wind Power...

http://sciblogs.co.nz/hot-topic/2012/05/03/the-tr uth-about-wind-energy/

Shocking new revelations about the impact of excessive use of wind power on our planet - it could blow us out of our orbit around the sun! Oh, and coal is really, really, tasty...

; )


Sure it has to be in video form because those folks don't like to read.
(Sorry if I missed your point!)
good night, everyone.
looking forward to whatever this season holds!
Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254
612. wxmod 02:39 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Sahara dust will probably choke off buildup from the East making Africa waves unlikely for a while.



Member Since: 4 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1233
613. gulfbreeze 02:41 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
I like this. It explains how quickly our climate can change...Lamont's Broecker Warns Gases Could Alter Climate
Oceans' Circulation Could Collapse
BY LAURENCE LIPPSETT

Thermohaline circulation links the Earth's oceans. Cold, dense, salty water from the North Atlantic sinks into the deep and drives the circulation like a giant plunger.
On the eve of the international meeting on global warming that opened Dec. 1 in Kyoto, Japan, one of the world's leading climate experts warned of an underestimated threat posed by the buildup of greenhouse gases an abrupt collapse of the oceans' prevailing circulation system that could send temperatures across Europe plummeting in a span of 10 years.

If that system shut down today, winter temperatures in the North Atlantic region would fall by 20 or more degrees Fahrenheit within 10 years. Dublin would acquire the climate of Spitsbergen, 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle.

"The consequences could be devastating," said Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and author of the new research, which appeared in the Nov. 28 issue of the magazine Science.

A complex of globally interconnected ocean currents, collectively known as the Conveyor, governs our climate by transporting heat and moisture around the planet. But the Conveyor is delicately balanced and vulnerable, and it has shut down or changed direction many times in Earth's history, Broecker reports. Each time the Conveyor has shifted gears, it has caused significant global temperature changes within decades, as well as large-scale wind shifts, dramatic fluctuations in atmospheric dust levels, glacial advances or retreats and other changes over many regions of the Earth, he said.

The Conveyor "is the Achilles heel of the climate system," Broecker wrote in Science. "The record ... indicates that this current has not run steadily, but jumped from one mode of operation to another. The changes in climate associated with these jumps have now been shown to be large, abrupt and global."

The ongoing accumulation of heat-trapping industrial gases blanketing the Earth threatens to raise global temperatures, he said, but such a rise would occur gradually. Far more worrisome is the buildup's potential to stress the climate system past a crucial threshold that would disrupt the Conveyor and set off a rapid reconfiguration of Earth's climate, predicted by existing computer models.

Broecker also offered a new theory: Scientists generally agree that periodic changes in Earth's orbit and the amount of solar radiation it receives have paced fundamental climate changes on the planet over millions of years. But the global climatic flip-flops may have been set in motion by sudden switches in the operation of the Conveyor.

Today, the driving force of the Conveyor is the cold, salty water of the North Atlantic Ocean. Such water is more dense than warm, fresh water and hence sinks to the ocean bottom, pushing water through the world's oceans like a great plunger. The volume of this deep undersea current is 16 times greater than the flow of all the world's rivers combined, Broecker said, and it runs southward all the way to the southern tip of Africa, where it joins a watery raceway that circles Antarctica. Here the Conveyor is recharged by cold, salty water created by the formation of sea ice, which leaves salt behind when it freezes. This renewed sinking shoves water back northward, where it gradually warms again and rises to the surface in the Pacific and Indian oceans.

In the Indian Ocean, surface waters are too warm to sink. Northern Pacific waters are cold, but not salty enough to sink into the deep. This is primarily because prevailing winds that whip around the planet hit the great mountains of the western United States and Canada and drop their moisture. The resulting snow and rain runs into the Pacific, adding a dose of fresh water that dilutes the Pacific's saltiness, said Broecker

Today, the Conveyor comes full circle, eventually propelling warm surface waters, including the Gulf Stream, back into the North Atlantic. In winter, warm water transfers its heat to the frigid overlying air masses that come off ice-covered Canada, Greenland and Iceland. The eastward-moving air masses make northern Europe warmer in winter than comparable latitudes in North America. Without the Gulf Stream, nothing would temper the Arctic air, and Europe would enter a deep freeze.




Member Since: 13 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 601
614. gulfbreeze 02:42 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
I like this. It explains how quickly our climate can change...Lamont's Broecker Warns Gases Could Alter Climate
Oceans' Circulation Could Collapse
BY LAURENCE LIPPSETT

Thermohaline circulation links the Earth's oceans. Cold, dense, salty water from the North Atlantic sinks into the deep and drives the circulation like a giant plunger.
On the eve of the international meeting on global warming that opened Dec. 1 in Kyoto, Japan, one of the world's leading climate experts warned of an underestimated threat posed by the buildup of greenhouse gases an abrupt collapse of the oceans' prevailing circulation system that could send temperatures across Europe plummeting in a span of 10 years.

If that system shut down today, winter temperatures in the North Atlantic region would fall by 20 or more degrees Fahrenheit within 10 years. Dublin would acquire the climate of Spitsbergen, 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle.

"The consequences could be devastating," said Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and author of the new research, which appeared in the Nov. 28 issue of the magazine Science.

A complex of globally interconnected ocean currents, collectively known as the Conveyor, governs our climate by transporting heat and moisture around the planet. But the Conveyor is delicately balanced and vulnerable, and it has shut down or changed direction many times in Earth's history, Broecker reports. Each time the Conveyor has shifted gears, it has caused significant global temperature changes within decades, as well as large-scale wind shifts, dramatic fluctuations in atmospheric dust levels, glacial advances or retreats and other changes over many regions of the Earth, he said.

The Conveyor "is the Achilles heel of the climate system," Broecker wrote in Science. "The record ... indicates that this current has not run steadily, but jumped from one mode of operation to another. The changes in climate associated with these jumps have now been shown to be large, abrupt and global."

The ongoing accumulation of heat-trapping industrial gases blanketing the Earth threatens to raise global temperatures, he said, but such a rise would occur gradually. Far more worrisome is the buildup's potential to stress the climate system past a crucial threshold that would disrupt the Conveyor and set off a rapid reconfiguration of Earth's climate, predicted by existing computer models.

Broecker also offered a new theory: Scientists generally agree that periodic changes in Earth's orbit and the amount of solar radiation it receives have paced fundamental climate changes on the planet over millions of years. But the global climatic flip-flops may have been set in motion by sudden switches in the operation of the Conveyor.

Today, the driving force of the Conveyor is the cold, salty water of the North Atlantic Ocean. Such water is more dense than warm, fresh water and hence sinks to the ocean bottom, pushing water through the world's oceans like a great plunger. The volume of this deep undersea current is 16 times greater than the flow of all the world's rivers combined, Broecker said, and it runs southward all the way to the southern tip of Africa, where it joins a watery raceway that circles Antarctica. Here the Conveyor is recharged by cold, salty water created by the formation of sea ice, which leaves salt behind when it freezes. This renewed sinking shoves water back northward, where it gradually warms again and rises to the surface in the Pacific and Indian oceans.

In the Indian Ocean, surface waters are too warm to sink. Northern Pacific waters are cold, but not salty enough to sink into the deep. This is primarily because prevailing winds that whip around the planet hit the great mountains of the western United States and Canada and drop their moisture. The resulting snow and rain runs into the Pacific, adding a dose of fresh water that dilutes the Pacific's saltiness, said Broecker

Today, the Conveyor comes full circle, eventually propelling warm surface waters, including the Gulf Stream, back into the North Atlantic. In winter, warm water transfers its heat to the frigid overlying air masses that come off ice-covered Canada, Greenland and Iceland. The eastward-moving air masses make northern Europe warmer in winter than comparable latitudes in North America. Without the Gulf Stream, nothing would temper the Arctic air, and Europe would enter a deep freeze.




Member Since: 13 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 601
615. gulfbreeze 02:44 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
I like this. It explains how quickly our climate can change...Lamont's Broecker Warns Gases Could Alter Climate
Oceans' Circulation Could Collapse
BY LAURENCE LIPPSETT

Thermohaline circulation links the Earth's oceans. Cold, dense, salty water from the North Atlantic sinks into the deep and drives the circulation like a giant plunger.
On the eve of the international meeting on global warming that opened Dec. 1 in Kyoto, Japan, one of the world's leading climate experts warned of an underestimated threat posed by the buildup of greenhouse gases an abrupt collapse of the oceans' prevailing circulation system that could send temperatures across Europe plummeting in a span of 10 years.

If that system shut down today, winter temperatures in the North Atlantic region would fall by 20 or more degrees Fahrenheit within 10 years. Dublin would acquire the climate of Spitsbergen, 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle.

"The consequences could be devastating," said Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and author of the new research, which appeared in the Nov. 28 issue of the magazine Science.

A complex of globally interconnected ocean currents, collectively known as the Conveyor, governs our climate by transporting heat and moisture around the planet. But the Conveyor is delicately balanced and vulnerable, and it has shut down or changed direction many times in Earth's history, Broecker reports. Each time the Conveyor has shifted gears, it has caused significant global temperature changes within decades, as well as large-scale wind shifts, dramatic fluctuations in atmospheric dust levels, glacial advances or retreats and other changes over many regions of the Earth, he said.

The Conveyor "is the Achilles heel of the climate system," Broecker wrote in Science. "The record ... indicates that this current has not run steadily, but jumped from one mode of operation to another. The changes in climate associated with these jumps have now been shown to be large, abrupt and global."

The ongoing accumulation of heat-trapping industrial gases blanketing the Earth threatens to raise global temperatures, he said, but such a rise would occur gradually. Far more worrisome is the buildup's potential to stress the climate system past a crucial threshold that would disrupt the Conveyor and set off a rapid reconfiguration of Earth's climate, predicted by existing computer models.

Broecker also offered a new theory: Scientists generally agree that periodic changes in Earth's orbit and the amount of solar radiation it receives have paced fundamental climate changes on the planet over millions of years. But the global climatic flip-flops may have been set in motion by sudden switches in the operation of the Conveyor.

Today, the driving force of the Conveyor is the cold, salty water of the North Atlantic Ocean. Such water is more dense than warm, fresh water and hence sinks to the ocean bottom, pushing water through the world's oceans like a great plunger. The volume of this deep undersea current is 16 times greater than the flow of all the world's rivers combined, Broecker said, and it runs southward all the way to the southern tip of Africa, where it joins a watery raceway that circles Antarctica. Here the Conveyor is recharged by cold, salty water created by the formation of sea ice, which leaves salt behind when it freezes. This renewed sinking shoves water back northward, where it gradually warms again and rises to the surface in the Pacific and Indian oceans.

In the Indian Ocean, surface waters are too warm to sink. Northern Pacific waters are cold, but not salty enough to sink into the deep. This is primarily because prevailing winds that whip around the planet hit the great mountains of the western United States and Canada and drop their moisture. The resulting snow and rain runs into the Pacific, adding a dose of fresh water that dilutes the Pacific's saltiness, said Broecker

Today, the Conveyor comes full circle, eventually propelling warm surface waters, including the Gulf Stream, back into the North Atlantic. In winter, warm water transfers its heat to the frigid overlying air masses that come off ice-covered Canada, Greenland and Iceland. The eastward-moving air masses make northern Europe warmer in winter than comparable latitudes in North America. Without the Gulf Stream, nothing would temper the Arctic air, and Europe would enter a deep freeze.




Member Since: 13 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 601
616. Tropicsweatherpr 02:46 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:





Here is the latest discussion regarding this rain event.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST WED MAY 2 2012

.UPDATE...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ONSHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS AREA AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE INCOMING WEEKEND. GENERATING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS
OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY WILL VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED TODAY...WITH MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ON FRIDAY...WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS WILL HELP LARGER AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS...
THEREFORE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING

Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8218
617. gulfbreeze 02:47 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
IF this is true why did Europe have such a COLD winter!!
Member Since: 13 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 601
618. owenowen 02:59 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
More heat hysteria from this guy.
I wonder why I never see the following? because it doesn't support the "agenda".

The high temperature yesterday may 1st was 32 degrees at the
Fairbanks International Airport. This was the lowest high
temperature ever observed on may 1st at Fairbanks.
Member Since: 4 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
619. aspectre 03:03 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
605 CaicosRetiredSailor: The Truth About Wind Power
611 Chicklit: (Sorry if I missed your point!)

It was an Onion parody of certain political shows pandering
to the "science is evil: deny everything scientists say" crowd
Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
620. wxmod 03:09 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting gulfbreeze:
IF this is true why did Europe have such a COLD winter!!


Because of chaos.
Member Since: 4 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1233
621. Neapolitan 03:11 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting gulfbreeze:
IF this is true why did Europe have such a COLD winter!!
Perhaps because Europe didn't have a cold winter. That two-week cold snap at the January/February transition was anomalously deep and long-lasting, but even it wasn't enough to offset the above-normal to much above-normal winter most of the continent experienced.
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166
622. SteveDa1 03:12 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Wind Power...

http://sciblogs.co.nz/hot-topic/2012/05/03/the-tr uth-about-wind-energy/

Shocking new revelations about the impact of excessive use of wind power on our planet - it could blow us out of our orbit around the sun! Oh, and coal is really, really, tasty...
; )


Is it just me or everyone in that video sounds incredibly stupid? Or maybe that was the point?

Quoting aspectre:
605 CaicosRetiredSailor:
The Truth About Wind Power

611 Chicklit: (Sorry if I missed your point!)

It was an Onion parody of certain political shows catering
to the "science is evil, deny everything scientists say" crowd.


Thanks for clearing that up ;)
Member Since: 17 octobre 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057
623. yqt1001 03:13 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting aspectre:
605 CaicosRetiredSailor:
The Truth About Wind Power

611 Chicklit: (Sorry if I missed your point!)

It was an Onion parody of certain political shows pandering
to the "science is evil: deny everything scientists say" crowd


Onion has a wonderful parody for everything. This one is by far my favourite. :P And this one...to be honest all of their videos are epic XD
Member Since: 19 novembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1184
624. chucky7777 03:15 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
What do you think are some analog years to consider for the upcoming Hurricane season?
Member Since: 19 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 174
625. aspectre 03:15 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
617 gulfbreeze: IF this is true why did Europe have such a COLD winter!!

Because Europe didn't have an unusually cold winter. A section of CentralEurope was colder than normal for a week or few, and parts of SouthernEurope were colder than normal for a day or few.
But on the whole, Europe had a much warmer than average winter.
Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
626. bappit 03:18 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
The Onion has had a number of stories passed off by others as fact.

Edit: some weather related vids from The Onion.

Hurricane Bound for Texas Slowed by ...

Meteorologists Predict Worst Autumn Ever

There also are a lot of heavy gauge conspiracy nuts on the same YouTube pages as The Onion. Not sure how Google/YouTube lumped them together.

However, this one is intentional satire from The Onion.
Member Since: 18 mai 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4384
627. Jedkins01 03:36 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting hydrus:
I like this. It explains how quickly our climate can change...Lamont's Broecker Warns Gases Could Alter Climate
Oceans' Circulation Could Collapse
BY LAURENCE LIPPSETT

Thermohaline circulation links the Earth's oceans. Cold, dense, salty water from the North Atlantic sinks into the deep and drives the circulation like a giant plunger.
On the eve of the international meeting on global warming that opened Dec. 1 in Kyoto, Japan, one of the world's leading climate experts warned of an underestimated threat posed by the buildup of greenhouse gases an abrupt collapse of the oceans' prevailing circulation system that could send temperatures across Europe plummeting in a span of 10 years.

If that system shut down today, winter temperatures in the North Atlantic region would fall by 20 or more degrees Fahrenheit within 10 years. Dublin would acquire the climate of Spitsbergen, 600 miles north of the Arctic Circle.

"The consequences could be devastating," said Wallace S. Broecker, Newberry Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and author of the new research, which appeared in the Nov. 28 issue of the magazine Science.

A complex of globally interconnected ocean currents, collectively known as the Conveyor, governs our climate by transporting heat and moisture around the planet. But the Conveyor is delicately balanced and vulnerable, and it has shut down or changed direction many times in Earth's history, Broecker reports. Each time the Conveyor has shifted gears, it has caused significant global temperature changes within decades, as well as large-scale wind shifts, dramatic fluctuations in atmospheric dust levels, glacial advances or retreats and other changes over many regions of the Earth, he said.

The Conveyor "is the Achilles heel of the climate system," Broecker wrote in Science. "The record ... indicates that this current has not run steadily, but jumped from one mode of operation to another. The changes in climate associated with these jumps have now been shown to be large, abrupt and global."

The ongoing accumulation of heat-trapping industrial gases blanketing the Earth threatens to raise global temperatures, he said, but such a rise would occur gradually. Far more worrisome is the buildup's potential to stress the climate system past a crucial threshold that would disrupt the Conveyor and set off a rapid reconfiguration of Earth's climate, predicted by existing computer models.

Broecker also offered a new theory: Scientists generally agree that periodic changes in Earth's orbit and the amount of solar radiation it receives have paced fundamental climate changes on the planet over millions of years. But the global climatic flip-flops may have been set in motion by sudden switches in the operation of the Conveyor.

Today, the driving force of the Conveyor is the cold, salty water of the North Atlantic Ocean. Such water is more dense than warm, fresh water and hence sinks to the ocean bottom, pushing water through the world's oceans like a great plunger. The volume of this deep undersea current is 16 times greater than the flow of all the world's rivers combined, Broecker said, and it runs southward all the way to the southern tip of Africa, where it joins a watery raceway that circles Antarctica. Here the Conveyor is recharged by cold, salty water created by the formation of sea ice, which leaves salt behind when it freezes. This renewed sinking shoves water back northward, where it gradually warms again and rises to the surface in the Pacific and Indian oceans.

In the Indian Ocean, surface waters are too warm to sink. Northern Pacific waters are cold, but not salty enough to sink into the deep. This is primarily because prevailing winds that whip around the planet hit the great mountains of the western United States and Canada and drop their moisture. The resulting snow and rain runs into the Pacific, adding a dose of fresh water that dilutes the Pacific's saltiness, said Broecker

Today, the Conveyor comes full circle, eventually propelling warm surface waters, including the Gulf Stream, back into the North Atlantic. In winter, warm water transfers its heat to the frigid overlying air masses that come off ice-covered Canada, Greenland and Iceland. The eastward-moving air masses make northern Europe warmer in winter than comparable latitudes in North America. Without the Gulf Stream, nothing would temper the Arctic air, and Europe would enter a deep freeze.








Well bloke that's a weee bit scary!
Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333
628. MariettaMoon 03:48 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
New blog entry out from "The God Species." This entry discusses Boundary #1, "Biodiversity." Link

Lynas divides chapter three into five interesting, interrelated, sections titled "Biodiversity," "The Pleistocene Overkill," "The Sad Story of the Sea," "Biodiversity and the Earth System," and "The Price of Pandas."

I found this chapter to be fascinating and have learned a lot of interesting things I never knew before. Give it a read and drastically increase your knowledge on the most recent findings regarding biodiversity!

This blog will be updated on the first of each month over the next twelve months, with a new subject for each environmental issue. The order of these topics will be the following...

March 1st: Preface
April 1st: Introduction: The Ascent of Man
May 1st: Boundary 1: Biodiversity
June 1st: Boundary 2: Climate Change
July 1st: Boundary 3: Nitrogen
August 1st: Boundary 4: Land Use
September 1st: Boundary 5: Fresh Water
October 1st: Boundary 6: Toxics
November 1st: Boundary 7: Aerosols
December 1st: Boundary 8: Ocean Acidification
January 1st: Boundary 9: Ozone Layer
February 1st: Epilogue: Managing the Planet
--------------------------------

Here's the link:Link
Member Since: 11 juin 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 676
629. KoritheMan 03:51 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting chucky7777:
What do you think are some analog years to consider for the upcoming Hurricane season?


1951, 1957, 1968, 1976, and 2002, with the best of these being 2002.
Member Since: 7 Mars 2007 Posts: 409 Comments: 15449
630. pipelines 03:54 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting Jedkins01:




Well bloke that's a weee bit scary!


It's not a weee bit scary, it's horrifying. While everyone will be able to adapt to a changing climate, crops can't. Quick fluctuations completely ruin crop yields. Imagine significantly reduce crop yields across the planet, now imagine what happens to 6 billion people and not enough food to feed them all. While, in the current state, we would never go to war with countries like Mexico or China and we would not even consider using nuclear weapons, I can promise you that our current train of thinking and our current moral guide (as questionable as it already is) goes completely out the gutter when you're faced with simple survival. We will invade, kill, pillage, nuke, whoever we have to to keep our people and our country alive.

Quite simply we have a serious population issue that is already at the tipping point in-terms of sustainability. There is no question that a quick climate shift will cause our population to tip and there is no question that this will cause a war. WW3 will be about resources and billions of people will die, let's just hope it isn't in our lifetimes.
Member Since: 10 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
631. Jedkins01 04:33 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting pipelines:


It's not a weee bit scary, it's horrifying. While everyone will be able to adapt to a changing climate, crops can't. Quick fluctuations completely ruin crop yields. Imagine significantly reduce crop yields across the planet, now imagine what happens to 6 billion people and not enough food to feed them all. While, in the current state, we would never go to war with countries like Mexico or China and we would not even consider using nuclear weapons, I can promise you that our current train of thinking and our current moral guide (as questionable as it already is) goes completely out the gutter when you're faced with simple survival. We will invade, kill, pillage, nuke, whoever we have to to keep our people and our country alive.

Quite simply we have a serious population issue that is already at the tipping point in-terms of sustainability. There is no question that a quick climate shift will cause our population to tip and there is no question that this will cause a war. WW3 will be about resources and billions of people will die, let's just hope it isn't in our lifetimes.




Why is this a one way conversation? Your assuming I'm someone who ignores Climate Change and other global issues, buuuut I was just having a bit of fun by speaking sarcastically. Settle down man, lol.
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632. JRRP 04:45 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting chucky7777:
What do you think are some analog years to consider for the upcoming Hurricane season?

1951

2002


Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315
633. LargoFl 10:23 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Member Since: 6 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22426
634. percylives 10:35 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Wind Power...

http://sciblogs.co.nz/hot-topic/2012/05/03/the-tr uth-about-wind-energy/

Shocking new revelations about the impact of excessive use of wind power on our planet - it could blow us out of our orbit around the sun! Oh, and coal is really, really, tasty...

; )


Darn it. I was hoping for a morning's laugh but the "News Report" hung up on the 22nd second and I couldn't get it to restart.

I was very interested to see how these windmills were going to negate the gravity of the sun. And just a wee bit skeptical.
Member Since: 23 août 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
635. MAweatherboy1 10:37 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Wow, that's as close as I've been to a slight risk so far this year... Instead I'm in one of those exciting green regions:



The SPC has slight risks for today, tomorrow, and Saturday and a day 4 outlook has been issued for Sunday
Member Since: 11 février 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6373
636. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:17 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting chucky7777:
What do you think are some analog years to consider for the upcoming Hurricane season?

1951, 1968, 2002, and 2004. As Kori has already pointed out, 2002 is the best out of all of those.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25328
637. aspectre 11:18 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
618 owenowen: I wonder why I never see the following? because it doesn't support the "agenda".
The high temperature yesterday May 1st was 32 degrees at Fairbanks International Airport. This was the lowest high temperature ever observed on may 1st at Fairbanks.

Cuz photos of the typical Fairbanks resident
suggest that it isn't even cold enough to wear pants.
BTW
Your use of scare quotes (ie "agenda"} signals that you're skeptical about the idea that those who propound that GlobalWarming is real actually have an agenda.
That way lies Perdition. Next you'll be denying that there is a conspiracy amongst them.
Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846
638. Chicklit 11:18 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting aspectre:
605 CaicosRetiredSailor: The Truth About Wind Power
611 Chicklit: (Sorry if I missed your point!)

It was an Onion parody of certain political shows pandering
to the "science is evil: deny everything scientists say" crowd


Yes, those people who actually spend years studying what they are talking and writing about, elitists!
Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254
639. TropicalAnalystwx13 11:40 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
I really dislike school right about now.

17 days left, but I have an English I, Biology I, Algebra II, Earth Science, and Civics/Economics Final next week.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25328
640. stormwatcherCI 11:43 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really dislike school right about now.

17 days left, but I have an English I, Biology I, Algebra II, Earth Science, and Civics/Economics Final next week.
One step closer to the end.
Member Since: 9 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040
641. WxGeekVA 11:49 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really dislike school right about now.

17 days left, but I have an English I, Biology I, Algebra II, Earth Science, and Civics/Economics Final next week.


I dont have finals until the end of the month, but I do have the SAT on Saturday, AP exams next week, and Virginia SOLs the week after... Then I have finals. However, we do actually get out 2 days earlier due to lack of snow days this year...
Member Since: 3 septembre 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3323
642. Tropicsweatherpr 11:52 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Good morning. A flood watch is up for all of Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands until Friday evening.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST THU MAY 3 2012

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-040000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0002.120503T0829Z-120505T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE... AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABAN A GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO. ..CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
429 AM AST THU MAY 3 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...AND FOR ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED JUST WEST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTH ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF INTENSE RAINFALL WITH
RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS
PARTS OF THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF UP TO SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE OVERALL AMOUNTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...RIVERS AND DRY GUTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

BCS/ER
Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8218
643. weatherh98 11:55 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really dislike school right about now.

17 days left, but I have an English I, Biology I, Algebra II, Earth Science, and Civics/Economics Final next week.


Yeaup me too, 2 weeks I'm taking a alg 1 honors final Spanish final world geography final religion final (way easy) English honors final and I too have an earth science final


Not a very happy camper
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091
644. weatherh98 12:00 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I dont have finals until the end of the month, but I do have the SAT on Saturday, AP exams next week, and Virginia SOLs the week after... Then I have finals. However, we do actually get out 2 days earlier due to lack of snow days this year...


I have a weird 8th grade graduation thing therefore I get out a week early
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091
645. StormTracker2K 12:01 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Interesting meso low WSW of Tampa moving NE. Models weren't showing this so this is interesting as it could provide a better chance of storms along the westside of FL this afternoon.


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646. washingtonian115 12:06 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Who the hell brought up GW now?
Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10664
647. weatherh98 12:07 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Interesting meso low WSW of Tampa moving NE. Models weren't showing this so this is interesting as it could provide a better chance of storms along the westside of FL this afternoon.



No, that's headed or mobile
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091
648. weatherh98 12:09 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Who the hell brought up GW now?


Seriously
Member Since: 17 juin 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6091
649. Patrap 12:12 GMT le 03 mai 2012    

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605
650. StormTracker2K 12:25 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting weatherh98:


No, that's headed or mobile


This mass of convection is moving NNE or NE. However lots of dry air in the upper levels could prevent this from making to FL but what it could do is add enough lift to spark a few storms toward the FL west coast.
Link
Member Since: 26 octobre 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
651. washingtonian115 12:26 GMT le 03 mai 2012    
Quoting weatherh98:


Seriously
Well it's almost a month till hurricane season so...
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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