Tornado hits France; unprecedented April heat in Europe
A rare EF-1 tornado with 73 - 112 mph winds (117 - 180 kph) hit Toulouse, France on Sunday, causing minor damage that included collapsed walls, uprooted trees, and cars moved out of place. The tornado touched down 15 - 20 km south of Toulouse in Southwest France at 7:10 pm local time, and baseball-sized hail (4 cm) also hit the region. According to the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD), this was the first tornado in France in 2012. French tornadoes are rare; there were just three tornadoes in the country in 2011. The European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) (as summarized by Wikipedia) lists 15 tornadoes for all of Europe so far in 2012. Most of the twisters (nine) were in Turkey. For comparison, an average of 495 tornadoes touched down in the U.S. during the period January - April over the years 2009 - 2011. A key reason for the lack of tornadoes in Europe is that the atmosphere is usually not unstable enough. Tornadoes require warm, moist, low-density air near the surface, and cold, dry, high-density air aloft to provide a lot of instability. The Baltic Sea and North Sea to the north of Europe moderate cold air flowing south from the pole, reducing the amount of instability over Europe.
Video 1. A rare French tornado kicks up dust near Toulouse, France on April 29, 2012.
Unprecedented April heat hits Central and Eastern Europe
A European heat wave of unparalleled intensity for so early in the year smashed all-time April heat records over much of Central and Eastern Europe on Saturday and Sunday. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, new national April heat records were set in Belarus, Germany, Austria, Lithuania, Moldova, and Poland, and hundreds of stations in Germany, Austria, France, Italy, Hungary, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Russia recorded their hottest April temperatures on record. Moscow hit 28.6°C (84°F) on Sunday, the hottest April reading in the city since record keeping began 130 years ago. The culprit for the heat wave and French tornado is a large low pressure system off the coast of France whose counter-clockwise flow has been pumping hot air from the Sahara Desert northwards into Europe. The low is expected to continue to bring unusually hot weather to most of Central and Eastern Europe for the remainder of the week.
New all-time April national heat records set over the past few days:
Poland: 31.7°C (89.18°F) at Tomaszow on 4/29
Germany: 32.2°C (90.0°F) at Munich on 4/28
Austria: 31.8°C (89.2°F) at Ranshoten on 4/28
Belarus: 30.4°C ( 86.7°F) at Zitovici on 4/29
Moldova 32.5°C
Lithuania
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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can you provide a link to this article?
Speaking of hail
this was my windshield on Sunday near Lubbock, Texas
Man I'm glad to see you out in the field. Keep us posted if you get some good footage. Take care buddy!
my best so far this season
Days 6-10
Days 8-14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012
SAT-MON...(PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION)...AMPLIFIED RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL INDUCE DOWNSTREAM HGHT
FALLS OVER THE SE US COAST. PSEUDO BACKDOOR SFC FRONT IS ADVERTISED
TO DROP SWD ACROSS THE GA/SC COAST SUN...BRINGING MORE FAVORABLE WLY
STEERING AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOCALLY. HV ADDED ISOLD TS/SHRA
INLAND SAT AND OVER ALL OF FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RATHER UNSETTLED SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY. ATLC RIDGE APPEARS TO BEGIN A TEMPORARY RE-DEVELOPMENT
AROUND MIDWEEK FROM THE NORTH. POPS DURING LATTER PERIODS AT MIDWEEK
AND BEYOND LOOK BEST INLAND WITH ISOLD/SCT CVRG DUE TO A WEAK WIND
REGIME AND SEA BREEZE DOMINATED SCENARIO WITH BOUNDARY DRIVEN
DIURNAL PCPN AND SUITABLE MOISTURE. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
NEITHER GFS/ECMWF INDICATE ANY PROLONGED DRY PERIODS FOR THE AREA
DURING NEXT WEEK.
Now you just gotta get a pic a nice wedge!
only wedge Ive had this year :/ haha
Wow, I've not seen you lately. Hi tornadodude! How's it going?
Yeah it looks as if Sunday could have solid rain chances. The problem will be that these thunderstorms will be focused over the interior and east coast of FL due to NW stearing flow.
haha its been awhile! going well, how you been??
Man there is some pretty cold air heading your way down the road. Highs in the upper 40's to mid 50's possible next week.
I forgot the "me factor" Once that crap passed now they say this...lmao
I am Mr. Jinx!
I'd much rather have a 2 month summer than 11 months!
Yep... More like early April than early May... And it's not just up here either... Looks like much of the country could be below average.
In Houston, there are 2 seasons.
Hurricane season
not as hot as hurricane season.
Same. It's started to get a little hot down here...92F tomorrow.
Watched you drive into that monster hail core the other night. Probably wasn't a good idea. ;)
haha only 80 here right now!
The storm transitioned from high based to outflow dominant so we thought we'd core punch. Definitely got more than we bargained for lol oh well, it was fun
NCC087-022100-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0159.120502T2006Z-120502T2100Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
* UNTIL 500 PM EDT
* AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CRUSO...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WAYNESVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT
5 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
CRUSO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.
&&
LAT...LON 3557 8277 3554 8276 3553 8278 3547 8280
3541 8274 3538 8279 3532 8283 3532 8287
3530 8291 3530 8295 3532 8297 3538 8300
3559 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 186DEG 3KT 3539 8287
$$
ARK
My #1 TWC moment...by far.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NE...SD...MN...IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 022034Z - 022200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
FROM PORTIONS OF NERN NEB ACROSS SERN SD TO SRN MN AND NWRN IA. IF
THIS POTENTIAL BECOMES INCREASINGLY LIKELY...A WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY
OF NUMEROUS AND SUBTLE SMALL SCALE BOUNDARIES FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE MERGED WITH WEAK SURFACE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER NERN NEB WHERE RECENT SATL IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING CU CONGESTUS INCREASING. THE CU ALSO CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG
NERN SEGMENT OF THIS TROUGH AXIS INTO PORTIONS OF SCNTRL MN. IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT A WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM ACROSS SRN MN
WHERE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS
LIKELY WEAKENED. THE ENTIRE REGION LIES BENEATH A BELT OF
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 50KT THAT IS
SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45-55KT.
WHILE LATEST CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THIS
GENERAL AREA...DETAILS OF INITIATION AND SUBSEQUENT STORM EVOLUTION
REMAIN COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN. LATEST 18Z NAM-WRF SHOWS LIMITED QPF
SIGNAL ON THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL EAST ALONG
THE WARM FRONT INTO MN/WI THIS EVENING. MOST LIKELY REASON FOR THESE
VARIOUS SCENARIOS IS THE LACK OF MORE PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NOW ACROSS MT BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.
IF PERSISTENT MESOSCALE FORCING IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER FORCING
ALONG THE BOUNDARIES CAN PROMOTE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...MAGNITUDE OF CAPE AND SHEAR IN PLACE WOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD NEGATE GREATER TORNADO THREAT...ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR
BOUNDARY/FRONT/TROUGH INTERSECTIONS...COINCIDENT WITH STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN SUCH AN UNSTABLE REGIME...MIGHT RESULT IN A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF
THIS DEVELOPMENT BEGINS TO OCCUR.
..CARBIN.. 05/02/2012
No rain for us today but Sunday it looks like. If you look at my post I mentioned Sunday not today however you may get a thunderstorm this evening as showers are trying to build around Tampa Bay right now.
I follow you guys religiously on FB!
NYTimes: Radiation in “small doses could actually be disproportionately worse” says report — “Doses spread out over time might be more dangerous than doses given all at once” — Renewed importance after Fukushima
Link
Obama: Just a handful of nuclear material could kill hundreds of thousands — That’s the reality that we face (VIDEO)
Link
Japan will no longer be a developed country in less than 40 years: Most Powerful Japanese Business Organization
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Inviting economic suicide?
By KEVIN RAFFERTY
Special to The Japan Times
HONG KONG — The International Monetary Fund has just reported that India has overtaken Japan as the world's third biggest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) — the measure of the amount of money needed to purchase the same goods and services.
Now it is at least semi-official: Japan's economy is on the skids. A report just released by a think tank of the Nippon Keidanren, the country's most powerful business organization, says that by 2050, Japan will no longer be a developed country, predicting years of negative growth from 2030 onward.................
Link
Local CBS News: ‘Slight’ leak was found after post-quake inspection of North Anna nuclear plant — Officials say not actually caused by quake (VIDEO)
Link
NOrth Anna data:
At 1:51pm on August 23, 2011, a 5.8 magnitude earthquake occurred, centered south of Mineral, Virginia, and, 11 miles from the North Anna Nuclear Station.[14] The Associated Press reported the quake "was felt as far north as Rhode Island, New York City and Martha's Vineyard, Mass." The reactors automatically shut down and, because of a loss of offsite power, four diesel generators started up to supply electricity to safety systems. The plant reported an "Alert" status, the second lowest level of four NRC emergency classifications,[15] until 11:16am on August, 24, 2011.[16] One of the generators suffered a coolant leak and stopped working.[17] A fifth standby generator was activated to replace the broken unit, which was repaired.[16][18][19][20][21] Offsite power was restored later on August 23.[16][22] Dominion also reported that the aftershocks did not affect the power plant.[16] Also on August 24, Dominion announced that it had ended the "Notice of Unusual Event", the least serious of the NRC emergency classifications, at the North Anna Power Station following inspection of equipment susceptible to seismic activity.[23]
According to local Virginia media station, WHSV, "The two North Anna reactors are among 27 in the eastern and central U.S. that may need upgrades because those plants are more likely to get hit with an earthquake larger than the one on which their design was based, according to a preliminary Nuclear Regulatory Commission review." The Nuclear Regulatory Commission extended the operating licenses of these plants for an additional 20 years back in 2003. Dominion has publicly stated that on-site, spent-nuclear-fuel long-term storage canisters shifted during the earthquake along with various building cracks, all while maintaining such damage does not represent unsafe operating conditions. As of December 20, 2011, both units at North Anna Power Station have restarted, and are operating at full power.[24][25]
This isn't to say that this trend will continue, but with El Nino on the horizon, cooler temperatures relative to average should be expected.
•10 named storms
•5 hurricanes
•2 major hurricanes
In their discussion Hebert and Schmude have this to say about their reasoning:
We are seeing a significant change to the weather pattern this year when compared to last, which will likely have huge effects on the tropical season forecast. First, over the Pacific Ocean the current La Niña pattern has quickly faded away and will likely be followed by a weak El Niño by the middle to latter part of summer. Remember that El Niño’s tend to create higher winds shear and decreased favorability for tropical cyclone development over the Atlantic Basin. La Niña’s have the reverse effect by producing less wind shear and typically more favorable conditions for tropical development. The last two hurricane seasons were considered La Niña years, with both seasons registering 19 named storms.
Secondly, we’re noticing considerably cooler water over the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea compared to this time last year, thanks in large part to stronger trade winds over the Tropical Atlantic, which has resulted in more upwelling of cooler water off the west coast of Africa. This cooler than normal water has spread across a vast part of the Tropical Atlantic westward into the Caribbean Sea resulting in near to slightly below normal water temperature, which is a complete reversal compared to the last two years at this time when water temperatures were well above normal.
The combination of a potential developing El Niño later this summer and significantly cooler water over the Atlantic Tropical Basin compared to the last two seasons will likely result in a significant reduction in the number of tropical cyclones for the upcoming hurricane season. Even though the number of named tropical cyclones will likely be reduced this season does not imply the Gulf Coast or Atlantic Seaboard will be spared from a tropical cyclone strike. Note that some of our more notable storms affecting the U.S. occurred during El Niño seasons, including Hurricane Andrew (1992 Florida/Louisiana) and Hurricane Alicia (1983 Texas).
Although they have low confidence in their location forecast, Hebert and Schmude believe there’s an elevated area of concern for the upcoming season over the north-central Gulf Coast from southeast Texas to the Florida Panhandle and across south Florida
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