Connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather
Connecting the dots between human-caused climate change and extreme weather events is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty. One the one hand, the underlying physics is clear--the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather. But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change. So, communicators of the links between climate change and extreme weather need to emphasize how climate change shifts the odds. We've loaded the dice towards some types of extreme weather events, by heating the atmosphere to add more heat and moisture. This can bring more extreme weather events like heat waves, heavy downpours, and intense droughts. What's more, the added heat and moisture can change atmospheric circulation patterns, causing meanders in the jet stream capable of bringing longer-lasting periods of extreme weather. As I wrote in my post this January, Where is the climate headed?, "The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history."
Figure 1. Women who work on a tea farm in Assam, India hold up a dot in honor of Climate Impacts Day (May 5, 2012), to urge people to connect the dots between climate change and the threat to their livelihood. Chai is one of the most consumed beverages in India, but a prolonged dry spell and extreme heat has affected tea plantations in Assam and Bengal with production dropping by 60% as compared to the same period in 2011. Image credit: 350.org.
May 5: Climate Impacts Day
On Saturday, May 5 (Cinco de Mayo!), the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, is launching a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They've declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and have coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Some of the events planned for Saturday: firefighters in New Mexico will hold posters with dots in a forest ravaged by wildfires; divers in the Marshall Islands take a dot underwater to their dying coral reefs; climbers on glaciers in the Alps, Andes, and Sierras will unfurl dots on melting glaciers with the simple message: "Melting"; villagers in Northeastern Kenya will create dots to show how ongoing drought is killing their crops; in San Francisco, California, aerial artist Daniel Dancer and the Center for Biological Diversity will work with hundreds of people to form a giant, moving blue dot to represent the threat of sea level rise and ocean acidification; and city-dwellers in Rio de Janeiro hold dots where mudslides from unusually heavy rains wiped out part of their neighborhood. I think its a great way to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather, since the mainstream media coverage of climate change has been almost nil the past few years. A report by Media Matters for America found out that nightly news coverage about climate change on the major networks decreased 72% between 2009 and 2011. On the Sunday shows, 97% of the stories mentioning climate change were about politics in Washington D.C. or on the campaign trail, not about extreme weather or recent scientific reports. You can check out what Climate Impacts Day events may be happening in your area at the climatedots.org website.
Figure 2. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York. In my post, Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw? I argue that during September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height.
Also of interest
Anti-coal activists, led by climate scientist Dr. James Hansen of NASA, are acting on Saturday to block Warren Buffett's coal trains in British Columbia from delivering coal to Pacific ports for shipment overseas. Dave Roberts of Grist explains how this may be an effective strategy to reduce coal use, in his post, "Fighting coal export terminals: It matters".
The creator of wunderground's new Climate Change Center, atmospheric scientist Angela Fritz, has a blog post on Friday's unveiling of the new Heartland Institute billboards linking mass murderers like Charles Manson and Osama Bin Laden to belief in global warming. In Heartland's description of the billboard campaign, they say, "The people who still believe in man-made global warming are mostly on the radical fringe of society. This is why the most prominent advocates of global warming aren't scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen." The Heartland Institute neglected to mention that the Pope and the Dalai Lama are prominent advocates of addressing the dangers of human-caused climate change.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It's been wet all dry-season.
Have not had a dry season this year at all!
Loads of rain coming up out of the Amazon basin.
Not complainin' though!
People are so silly!
There are so many 'right' reasons to be mad at you, and they chose the wrong ones.
Pathetic.
Back in June 2006 Dr. Gray also said the globe would cool in a few years.
http://www.denverpost.com/harsanyi/ci_3899807
"Let's just say a crowd of baby boomers and yuppies have hijacked this thing," Gray says. "It's about politics. Very few people have experience with some real data. I think that there is so much general lack of knowledge on this. I've been at this over 50 years down in the trenches working, thinking and teaching."
Gray acknowledges that we've had some warming the past 30 years. "I don't question that," he explains. "And humans might have caused a very slight amount of this warming. Very slight. But this warming trend is not going to keep on going. My belief is that three, four years from now, the globe will start to cool again, as it did from the middle '40s to the middle '70s."
Gray conveniently ignores the opinions of the vast majority of SCIENTISTS studying climate change. (see link if you dare)
http://www.wunderground.com/resources/climate/928 .asp
Dr. Gray is the old man down the street that shakes his fist at kids racing by on their skateboards. The science has past him by. He needs to stick to hurricanes and keep his subjective views to himself.
Since you always seem to have a good understand of these things, I thought you might find this article interesting. It is quite long, but it poses some good questions, especially about the carbon absorbtion towards the end of the article. I hope you enjoy it. Let me know what you think. (You have to click on the link you will see on the first page to read the entire article, but it is worth it.
Link
Gee, thanks! I will try and find the compliment somewhere in that short, little sentence.
"One block the team studied weighs an estimated 78 tons, yet was still cut free from its position 36 feet (10 meters) above sea level and shoved farther inland."
Heheheheh....
Went deep into the rainforest on Tuesday until Friday.
Sleeping in a hammock, in the torrential rain, with mud underfoot.
It has improved my appreciation for civilisation by leaps and bounds.
Builds Character, according to some!
And here in Slidell it always seems to be one of the first to break the freezing mark during our few weeks of winter.
We may not break 90 today if these rain showers keep popping up...
Wow, I would love to be able to do that ...amazing, it must have been truly amazing
I read that article and thought the author deserved an award.
Yup I'm in new Orleans at a basketball tournament right now and it's cloudy, I live in mandeville, it's cloudy there. I find it fun to be on the causeway and look around the lake and see clouds and like up and see blue sky
It was an incredible time, really.
4 hours walk from the end of the "road" where the 4WD can reach, into the rainforest where very few people go/have gone.
Using the stream-beds for paths, we went deep into the mountains and camped on the bank of a small river which feeds a large one a few minutes walk away with a spectacular waterfall.
We have "hennessey hammocks" which are dry and light and comfortable, and a 10' square of light tarp that we hung over the cooking area.
We do this a couple of times a year, and always come back recharged!
It's recommended!
Um...no. Just no.
Putting it on my bucket list ...would love to see any photos or see your diary if you keep one while you are there.
Tribucanes message from god
"don't make me
come down there".
It was well written and written subjectively. I didn't understand all of it, but the questions it raised were well worth reading.
For those of you who, like me, aren't likely to have a rain forest handy, a regular forest will do nearly as well, imo. :)
Actually, it did get an award.
"Author TIm Appenzeller won the 2005 Walter Sullivan Award for Excellence in Science Journalism for this article."
What I wonder is what has been learned since it was written (2003 I figure since published Feb 2004).
could be a good way to scare the hell out of im with some extreme storms
EF5 3 mile wide wedge would do the trick
i reckon
show em what nature is all about in a hurry
who the heck told you that ?
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF NEW
BERN NORTH CAROLINA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FLORENCE SOUTH
CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. AMBIENT AIR MASS HAS BECOME HOT
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF
1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER FLOW ATTENDANT TO IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.
...MEAD
From this site:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.htm l
er what about all the people who were born before 0 AD ?
They sure as heck could not be born believing of God, as he had not been "invented".....lol.
Bible in Basic English
I said, You are gods; all of you are the sons of the Most High:
LOL! Grothar, I believe that you have been misunderstood. I thought that I was the only one so easily misunderstood. ;-)
LargoFl, I can assure that Grothar would never set out to offend anyone. I have had many conversations with him and, trust me, he is the diplomat's diplomat. I believe that what Grothar was saying is simply that this blog has seen recent days where a lot of assertive opinions have been expressed on just a few topics. The topics on the current blog have been varied and, for the most part, quite cordial. The current blog has left Grothar speechless, but only in the sense that the current blog contains so many topics and so few attacks on each other. ... I share in his sense of this.
So women get left out? If that's the case, I'm not so sure that I want to be a god.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0714
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 051909Z - 052045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE DEVELOPING
SEVERE THREAT FROM CNTRL/NERN NEB...NEWD INTO NWRN IA. THIS WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 21Z.
DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING MCS ACTIVITY THAT SPREAD ACROSS SD INTO
MN HAS REINFORCED A BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NEB
INTO THE NWRN CORNER OF IA. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY MAY CONTINUE TO SAG
SWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IA...STRONG HEATING OVER NEB WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY FURTHER SWD PUSH ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. WARM SECTOR
CU FIELD APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING AND CHANGING CHARACTER ACROSS NERN
NEB INTO NWRN IA PER DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE WIND SHIFT INITIALLY ACROSS NEB
AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT STEEPER ACROSS THIS REGION.
NEEDLESS TO SAY EXTREME INSTABILITY...SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000
J/KG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...WILL PROVE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS...POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC. VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND A
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z.
..DARROW.. 05/05/2012
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST SAT MAY 5 2012
.DISCUSSION...SOME CLOUDS THIS MORNING...SOME ONSHORE FLOW FOR
NORTHERN PR...AND MID LEVEL DRYING (ABOVE 18 KFT) AS INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND 12Z TJSJ RAOB ALL LIKELY SLOWED ONSET OF
DEEP CONVECTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MORE THAN FRIDAY. BUT
SHOWERS/THUNDER ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING WHERE SOILS REMAIN
SATURATED FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN. KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THIS CONVECTIVE PERIOD THEN SUNDAY BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE.
PREICIPITABLE WATER TO DROP OFF VERY SLIGHTLY LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY
WHILE AN UPPER JET CONTINUES IN VICINITY AND THE AREA UNDER
RIGHT/REAR ENTRANCE LOCATION. THE WEAK 5H TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
NEAR HISPANIOLA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST...PROBABLY
A NON-FACTOR BY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD FOR
INTERIOR PR WHERE STRONGEST HEATING WILL BE. LEANED ON WRF FOR
LOCATION OF QPF THOUGH TONED DOWN ITS VALUES. MOISTURE TO RETURN
TO SEASONAL VALUES LATER IN THE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.
CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO ISOLATED AND SCATTERED.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR ALL LOCAL TAF SITES EXCEPT PSBL
BRIEF MVFR/IFR THRU LATE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS OVER LAND WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL CONT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 06/16Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
OR EVEN IFR IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA...AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 83 75 86 / 10 40 30 30
STT 76 84 73 78 / 30 30 30 30
Rainfall total so far in 2012 and departure from normal stats:
Link
and God said "Abe, if you see me comin' you better run..." sorry, couldn't resist!
There is no right or wrong God, simply right or wrong actions. We are all born to become gods, and our actions determine our fate. It would be nice if there were a Holy Rescuer coming to save us from our folly, but I don't think we're that lucky.
looking at the Wundermap, the temp differential is insane. it's about 55 here, and but 90 down by the IA/NE border. that's gotta create some instability...
we did get a 10% tornado major/hatched area up here...should be an interesting afternoon.
Awe, shucks, Rookie, I don't know what to say. Thanks. It definitly wasn't a remark aimed at Largo.
LOL! .... SCORE!
I am sorry, but I am still laughing over this one!
oooooops! ... Is Grothar still here?
Exit! Stage right! -------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- ------------>
Note to self. Do not get so far from the exit next time.
My wife and I chose to retire in the Hill Country of Texas, surrounded by flowing rivers and lush green trees. We also thought the climate would be wonderful, with average June/July temperatures reaching the low 90s and relative humidity in the low 30s.
Here it is the 5th of May and we are headed to a formal outdoor wedding later this afternoon. That's right folks, I'm wearing a black tuxedo and my wife made me spitshine my cowboy boots.
The site of the wedding is currently at 94.1 degrees, with 50% humidity and no wind. Temperature is expected to peak between 97 & 98 degrees later this afternoon.
They didn't teach about this when I took American history.
"By 1916 almost all of the major suffrage organizations were united behind the goal of a constitutional amendment. When New York adopted woman suffrage in 1917 and President Woodrow Wilson changed his position to support an amendment in 1918, the political balance began to shift in favor of the vote for women. There was still strong opposition to enfranchising women, however, as illustrated by this petition from the Women Voters Anti-Suffrage Party of New York at the beginning of U.S. involvement in World War I."
Edit: probably because they didn't want to bring up the issue of civil rights.
But it was a good try, right?
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