Connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather
Connecting the dots between human-caused climate change and extreme weather events is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty. One the one hand, the underlying physics is clear--the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather. But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change. So, communicators of the links between climate change and extreme weather need to emphasize how climate change shifts the odds. We've loaded the dice towards some types of extreme weather events, by heating the atmosphere to add more heat and moisture. This can bring more extreme weather events like heat waves, heavy downpours, and intense droughts. What's more, the added heat and moisture can change atmospheric circulation patterns, causing meanders in the jet stream capable of bringing longer-lasting periods of extreme weather. As I wrote in my post this January, Where is the climate headed?, "The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history."
Figure 1. Women who work on a tea farm in Assam, India hold up a dot in honor of Climate Impacts Day (May 5, 2012), to urge people to connect the dots between climate change and the threat to their livelihood. Chai is one of the most consumed beverages in India, but a prolonged dry spell and extreme heat has affected tea plantations in Assam and Bengal with production dropping by 60% as compared to the same period in 2011. Image credit: 350.org.
May 5: Climate Impacts Day
On Saturday, May 5 (Cinco de Mayo!), the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, is launching a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They've declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and have coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Some of the events planned for Saturday: firefighters in New Mexico will hold posters with dots in a forest ravaged by wildfires; divers in the Marshall Islands take a dot underwater to their dying coral reefs; climbers on glaciers in the Alps, Andes, and Sierras will unfurl dots on melting glaciers with the simple message: "Melting"; villagers in Northeastern Kenya will create dots to show how ongoing drought is killing their crops; in San Francisco, California, aerial artist Daniel Dancer and the Center for Biological Diversity will work with hundreds of people to form a giant, moving blue dot to represent the threat of sea level rise and ocean acidification; and city-dwellers in Rio de Janeiro hold dots where mudslides from unusually heavy rains wiped out part of their neighborhood. I think its a great way to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather, since the mainstream media coverage of climate change has been almost nil the past few years. A report by Media Matters for America found out that nightly news coverage about climate change on the major networks decreased 72% between 2009 and 2011. On the Sunday shows, 97% of the stories mentioning climate change were about politics in Washington D.C. or on the campaign trail, not about extreme weather or recent scientific reports. You can check out what Climate Impacts Day events may be happening in your area at the climatedots.org website.
Figure 2. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York. In my post, Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw? I argue that during September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height.
Also of interest
Anti-coal activists, led by climate scientist Dr. James Hansen of NASA, are acting on Saturday to block Warren Buffett's coal trains in British Columbia from delivering coal to Pacific ports for shipment overseas. Dave Roberts of Grist explains how this may be an effective strategy to reduce coal use, in his post, "Fighting coal export terminals: It matters".
The creator of wunderground's new Climate Change Center, atmospheric scientist Angela Fritz, has a blog post on Friday's unveiling of the new Heartland Institute billboards linking mass murderers like Charles Manson and Osama Bin Laden to belief in global warming. In Heartland's description of the billboard campaign, they say, "The people who still believe in man-made global warming are mostly on the radical fringe of society. This is why the most prominent advocates of global warming aren't scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen." The Heartland Institute neglected to mention that the Pope and the Dalai Lama are prominent advocates of addressing the dangers of human-caused climate change.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Do you have a reference to an expert?
Do you not recognise Buddist philosophy when you see it?
One does not simply comment on a weather blog in December to May
and not expect your religion to get insulted
About your corn flakes...I don't think it was anyone on this blog that did that.
Comfort, TX
About 30 NW of San Antonio
Anytime Eugene. It is a bright sunny day here. Not a single cloud in the sky.
Argh....Why is there formal attire at an outdoor wedding in May?
When did you see these flowing rivers and lush green trees? (just joking)
Dont think that you'll be finding much "Comfort" there today ...lol.
So sorry
Well, I think that we are kind of here to hear about weather ...when its "sticky" subject such as religion ...just shut my trap
My Mom always told me dont discuss politics or religion ...
I think that's a distorted picture of the political spectrum. And ... how bout those dewpoints?
This is my last word on the subject, I promise.
Religions were invented by men, not God. Thus they are flawed, every one. Just like all of us.
We can pretend to know, but we just don't.
The buddha taught us that we should not believe everything we are told, but to follow what we feel to be the right path and do no harm. We are also taught that all religions are valid, and that our deeds in life will dtermine what happens, not what God we chose to follow.
Peace to all of you, and may the bridges you burn light your way :)
I'm off down highway 61...
Most of the major scientists who are climate change deniers are older, retired folks. Here's the list that appear on the Wiki page of scientists questioning the accuracy of IPCC climate projections.
Freeman Dyson, Professor Emeritus of the School of Natural Sciences. (Born 1923.)
Richard Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Born 1940.)
Nils-Axel Mörner, retired head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics department at Stockholm University. (Born 1938.)
Garth Paltridge, Visiting Fellow ANU and retired Chief Research Scientist. (Born 1940.)
Philip Stott, professor emeritus of biogeography at the University of London.
Hendrik Tennekes, retired Director of Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. (Born 1936)
A couple of years back I listened to a retired professor of geology at our local university being interviewed about his climate change skepticism. It was clear that he didn't fully understand how climate models worked.
There's a tendency for people to stop learning new stuff as life goes on. It's something that I noticed many times going through graduate school. Professors were teaching what was known when they were younger and often were not keeping up with developments in the field, especially if it was outside their area of specialization.
The really good, innovative stuff came from newly minted profs who were coming with a wider knowledge of the current state in many different areas. Going through their graduate program had forced them to learn things other than what was happening in the labs in which they worked.
Yeah, and I bet you take the garbage out the next time you are told to. ;-)
It's worse than that!
My wife came along.....
:):))
Why is it formal? The bride comes from serious Texas Oil money and the normal temps would be in the low 80s with moderate to low humidity.
Last time I checked the temp was up to 95 with a heat index of 104. Sure hoping that nobody drinks too much, too fast, and suffers a heatstroke.
I never understood that drinking in the heat thing??? It's like you're just asking for something bad to happen.
I do hope that you enjoy the wedding
Ones Moonrise time for tonight is on your Local Wu-page in the Astronomy section.
Astronomy
May. 05, 2012 Rise Set
Actual Time 6:13 AM CDT 7:40 PM CDT
Civil Twilight 5:48 AM CDT 8:06 PM CDT
Nautical Twilight 5:17 AM CDT 8:36 PM CDT
Astronomical Twilight 4:45 AM CDT 9:08 PM CDT
Moon 7:31 PM CDT 5:35 AM CDT
What's "civil" twilight Pat?
Salt in the wound? j/k ;-)
I AM THAT I AM
I'm under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
The end of civilization as we know it?
This is quite a conclusion to infer from those statistics. While I agree some older people get set in their ways, however, there could be many other answers as to why those particular people hold different views.
One instance, is that at the time most of them went to higher education, it was not as readily available the way it is today. Most people who were affluent were able to send their children to higher levels of education. They came from similar backgrounds and political beliefs which were long ingrained in their particular culture. This perhaps shaped their thinking and belief systems. It does not necessarily imply they are more reluctant to learn new ideas.
While it is very true people from humble backgrounds became distinguished in their fields, this was an exception rather than the rule.
I come from the same generation as most of these people and older than some. I personally have always tried to keep up with new ideas. I even know who Lady Gaga is for instance.
Why, if I could find my Betamax, I'd record this. By the way, what was the question?
no fate but that which one makes for themselves
Open a window lets hear some mo'.
LoL
How does this statement fit with many of the recent comments? Seems like discussion of religion is WAY OT
November is a great time for twilight pictures. The relatively late sunrise (7:30AM) and cold clear air allows one to sleep in until 5AM and still make it to the shoreline for a few pictures. Here, the Duluth Pier Lighthouses arise out of the "first light" and join with the crescent moon to welcome another beautiful day.
www.planetultra.com
According to the U.S. Naval Observatory, civil twilight is defined to begin in the morning, and to end in the evening when the center of the Sun is geometrically 6 degrees below the horizon.
This is the limit at which twilight illumination is sufficient, under good weather conditions, for terrestrial objects to be clearly distinguished; at the beginning of morning civil twilight, or end of evening civil twilight, the horizon is clearly defined and the brightest stars are visible under good atmospheric conditions in the absence of moonlight or other illumination.
In the morning before the beginning of civil twilight and in the evening after the end of civil twilight, artificial illumination is normally required to carry on ordinary outdoor activities. Complete darkness, however, ends sometime prior to the beginning of morning civil twilight and begins sometime after the end of evening civil twilight.
Sunrise and sunset conventionally refer to the times when the upper edge of the disk of the Sun is on the horizon, considered unobstructed relative to the location of interest. Atmospheric conditions are assumed to be average, and the location is in a level region on the Earth's surface.
Wow, I feel lazy now ...Guess I should have looked it up?
Anyway, thanks Pat ...you found a great explanation that I could understand
Edit: And it came complete with a beautiful picture ..I guess "civil" twilights are my favorite times of the day!
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