Connecting the dots between climate change and extreme weather
Connecting the dots between human-caused climate change and extreme weather events is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty. One the one hand, the underlying physics is clear--the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather. But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change. So, communicators of the links between climate change and extreme weather need to emphasize how climate change shifts the odds. We've loaded the dice towards some types of extreme weather events, by heating the atmosphere to add more heat and moisture. This can bring more extreme weather events like heat waves, heavy downpours, and intense droughts. What's more, the added heat and moisture can change atmospheric circulation patterns, causing meanders in the jet stream capable of bringing longer-lasting periods of extreme weather. As I wrote in my post this January, Where is the climate headed?, "The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011. It boggles my mind that in 2011, the U.S. saw 14 - 17 billion-dollar weather disasters, three of which matched or exceeded some of the most iconic and destructive weather events in U.S. history."
Figure 1. Women who work on a tea farm in Assam, India hold up a dot in honor of Climate Impacts Day (May 5, 2012), to urge people to connect the dots between climate change and the threat to their livelihood. Chai is one of the most consumed beverages in India, but a prolonged dry spell and extreme heat has affected tea plantations in Assam and Bengal with production dropping by 60% as compared to the same period in 2011. Image credit: 350.org.
May 5: Climate Impacts Day
On Saturday, May 5 (Cinco de Mayo!), the activist group 350.org, founded by Bill McKibben, is launching a new effort to "connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather." They've declared May 5 Climate Impacts Day, and have coordinated an impressive global effort of nearly 1,000 events in 100 countries to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather. Their new climatedots.org website aims to get people involved to "protest, educate, document and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world to support the communities on the front lines of the climate crisis." Some of the events planned for Saturday: firefighters in New Mexico will hold posters with dots in a forest ravaged by wildfires; divers in the Marshall Islands take a dot underwater to their dying coral reefs; climbers on glaciers in the Alps, Andes, and Sierras will unfurl dots on melting glaciers with the simple message: "Melting"; villagers in Northeastern Kenya will create dots to show how ongoing drought is killing their crops; in San Francisco, California, aerial artist Daniel Dancer and the Center for Biological Diversity will work with hundreds of people to form a giant, moving blue dot to represent the threat of sea level rise and ocean acidification; and city-dwellers in Rio de Janeiro hold dots where mudslides from unusually heavy rains wiped out part of their neighborhood. I think its a great way to draw attention to the links between climate change and extreme weather, since the mainstream media coverage of climate change has been almost nil the past few years. A report by Media Matters for America found out that nightly news coverage about climate change on the major networks decreased 72% between 2009 and 2011. On the Sunday shows, 97% of the stories mentioning climate change were about politics in Washington D.C. or on the campaign trail, not about extreme weather or recent scientific reports. You can check out what Climate Impacts Day events may be happening in your area at the climatedots.org website.
Figure 2. Front Street Bridge on the Susquehanna River in Vestal, NY, immediately following the flood of September 8, 2011. Image credit: USGS, New York. In my post, Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw? I argue that during September 8, 2011 flood, the Susquehanna River rose twenty feet in 24 hours and topped the flood walls in Binghamton by 8.5 inches, so just a 6% reduction in the flood height would have led to no overtopping of the flood walls and a huge decrease in damage. Extra moisture in the air due to global warming could have easily contributed this 6% of extra flood height.
Also of interest
Anti-coal activists, led by climate scientist Dr. James Hansen of NASA, are acting on Saturday to block Warren Buffett's coal trains in British Columbia from delivering coal to Pacific ports for shipment overseas. Dave Roberts of Grist explains how this may be an effective strategy to reduce coal use, in his post, "Fighting coal export terminals: It matters".
The creator of wunderground's new Climate Change Center, atmospheric scientist Angela Fritz, has a blog post on Friday's unveiling of the new Heartland Institute billboards linking mass murderers like Charles Manson and Osama Bin Laden to belief in global warming. In Heartland's description of the billboard campaign, they say, "The people who still believe in man-made global warming are mostly on the radical fringe of society. This is why the most prominent advocates of global warming aren't scientists. They are murderers, tyrants, and madmen." The Heartland Institute neglected to mention that the Pope and the Dalai Lama are prominent advocates of addressing the dangers of human-caused climate change.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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May 4, 2012
Just in case, you may want to pack a change of clothes
I know nothing of their beverage preferences, however, I can say that based on their comments that they haven't read the science very thoroughly, if at all.
May 3, 2012
Perhaps I was a tad too blunt.
Were that such a paradigm didn't exist.
But, alas, it does, and it shows no signs of changing. So the world--and, by extension, this forum--would be a far better place if we'd all do the next best thing: realize that everyone is free to worship and/or follow their own deity or deities--or even no deity at all.
The ADMIN "TSA" Light is Blinking Big time.
Oil can do dat ya know?
thanks for that :)
NWS Miami thinks rainy May then tapers off to normal.
Rainy Season Outlook: Early Start Followed by Near Normal Conditions
sea surf temp anomaly .
You obviously weren't here earlier or you would retract that. :) How you doing, Nigel?
Have you ever wondered why people feel compelled to talk about things that are "off topic," especially religion and such?
Like I said a few posts back, its no big deal for somebody to drop by and post misinformation and then leave. If they are banned, they don't care anyway.
Then someone has to clean up the mess, and continually ignoring it or pretending it didn't happen is equally wrong.
Then someone will say, "Go talk on a religious blog, etc," couple problems with that:
1) the disbelievers don't follow the rules, and feel no reservations about dropping snide comments in at any time anyway, including many regulars on here who continually get away with it.
2) If you want your governor or president to know your complaints, what do you do? You go to their office and picket in their street, or call them on the phone, or send a letter. You don't hang out by yourself with a few other people who already agree with you and just talk in circles all day long. It's neither healthy nor productive.
3) Confused people, like the poor souls I addressed myself to earlier, don't tend to actually come looking for the truth, because they've convinced themselves the truth and a lie are one and the same.
If the only way they are to be corrected is if they bother to take themselves to some other forum discussing religion, logic, and philosophy, well then, they'll probably never be corrected then, will they?
If I say nothing, I'm morally liable.
If I complain or point out their error, then somebody complains and gets me banned, because I dared to tell the truth.
I'm good on this wet afternoon. What was going on earlier?
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT SAT MAY 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-NERN NEB / SERN SD / NWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 052052Z - 052215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 00Z...REQUIRING
A TORNADO WATCH.
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW W OF MCK WITH
AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD TO N OF OFK AND SUX
BEFORE CURVING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IA. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAS WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S AND WHEN COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES
OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WAA
PERSISTS...MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE STILL SLIGHTLY RISING AHEAD
OF NRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. AS SUCH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT STORM
INITIATION MAY BE DELAYED TO CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN CONVERGENCE
INCREASES IN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ.
PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND STRENGTHENING LOW AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE RAPID EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO
SUPERCELLS WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.
A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO 00Z.
..MEAD.. 05/05/2012
the southern end of the MCS in MN/IA/WI has a nasty looking cell on it. some decent sized hail, but nothing too crazy...
I'm just sitting around looking at the maps and the temp differential is huuuge in the NE/SD/IA borders...it's gotta pop soon!
What kinda dots do you have?
Dots? Extrapolating Dr.Maue's decreasing AllHurricanes trendline versus his increasing MajorHurricanes trendline is far more amusing. So, just from eyeballing...
...sometime ~2140AD, all hurricanes will become major hurricanes (~35)...
...and afterward, there will be increasingly more of those increasingly-major hurricanes.
D4 69 dBZ 39,000 ft. 67 kg/m² 100% chance 100% chance 3.25 in. 29 knots WNW (294)
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1140 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 60 MILES EAST OF
ROCHESTER MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 247...
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADUAL
BROADENING AND INTENSIFICATION OF A LLJ WILL ENHANCE THE INFLOW OF A
MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO ONGOING STORMS. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR...EXPECT SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES TO PERSIST WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
Well, a truth, anyway...and an internal truth at that.
"If I say nothing, I'm morally liable.
"If I complain or point out their error, then somebody complains and gets me banned, because I dared to tell the truth."
Were you compelled to continue this discussion and get "the truth" - your truth - out, you can always make your own wublog about it.
Maybe something to do with this late season front. Here anyways. The Euro looked like it stalls it a bit just off the coast. I was skeptical but being wrong is good sometimes. The NWS is starting to believe. :)
LONG TERM...MODELS ARE GAINING AGREEMENT ON THE RESOLUTION OF THE
SPLIT FLOW AND CONSEQUENT CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STAYED WITH THE EURO AS THE GFS HAS BEEN PLAYING CATCHUP.
THE EURO STILL MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT STALLING TO THE NORTH. GAINING CONFIDENCE IN CHANCE
POPS AS A RESULT OVER THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK.
Wow!
WU supporting Economic terrorism.
That is a new low.
Link
Although I know of a certain country that invaded Iraq to depose a dictator and get oil out of the ground. Killed tens (hundreds?) of thousands in the process. THAT is economic terrorism.
I will be delighted to discuss this on your blog or another website altogether if you prefer. As many have rightly pointed out, this is not the correct venue for such a discussion.
However, it is the perfect place to tell everyone what a delightful day it has been in Murphy, NC. Low 80s with enough breeze to make it very comfortable outside.
When's it gonna pop? It can't be long now...
In the next hour or so. The SPC says a Tornado Watch will be required by 00Z.
The term economic terrorism is strictly defined to indicate an attempt at economic destabilization by a group. More precisely, in 2005 the Geneva Centre for Security Policy defined economic terrorism in the following terms:
Contrary to "economic warfare" which is undertaken by states against other states, "economic terrorism" would be undertaken by transnational or non-state actors. This could entail varied, coordinated and sophisticated or massive destabilizing actions in order to disrupt the economic and financial stability of a state, a group of states or a society (such as market oriented western societies) for ideological or religious motives. These actions, if undertaken, may be violent or not. They could have either immediate effects or carry psychological effects which in turn have economic consequences.[1]
Link
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