U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.
Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.
Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.
Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.
Jeff Masters
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You'll be waiting a while becuase the ECMWF doesn't go out to 360 hours :)
what is so funny?
I dont get it.
I think he means when ECMWF is at 240 hours and lower.
Lol...Oh, you newbie. You'll find out soon enough.
Thank you, this is useful information, the true will always prevail!
More impressive and in line with weatherbell forecast, only 2 hurricanes south of 20 north in lowest 10 yr ace sample
Oh wow,ok. I didn't know that. Thanks.
* significant weather advisory for...
south central Palm Beach County
* until 245 PM EDT
* at 201 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
strong thunderstorm 8 miles northwest of Parkland... and moving east
at 15 mph.
* The storm will affect...
Mission Bay...
whisper walk...
Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge...
and surrounding communities.
The primary impacts will be gusty winds of 45 to 50 mph and
occasional lightning strikes. Lightning is the number one weather
related killer in Florida. Trees and open shelters offer no
protection. These winds can down small tree limbs and branches... and
blow around unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building
until the storm passes.
Google search in images "jfv curtain" and it will be your first result.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN SC/SRN GA/PARTS OF NRN FL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE/FAR SERN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091659Z - 091900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD PERMIT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. DEGREE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS -- AND THUS ONGOING HEATING/DESTABILIZATION -- FROM SERN
SC WSWWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES NOW INTO THE 1000 TO
1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THIS AREA...SUPPORTING A CONVECTIVE INCREASE
OBSERVED IN BOTH RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WHILE THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA REMAINS MODEST --
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE WSW AND LESS THAN 30
KT THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE...MODEST INCREASES IN
MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD WITH
TIME THUS INCREASING THE HEIGHT GRADIENT.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF FURTHER/MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND SOME
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD...A FEW STRONGER
STORMS SHOULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINAL HAIL AND
LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS EVOLUTION COULD REQUIRE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE -- POSSIBLY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
Ok, i think i get it but it is not that funny.
I have seen that curtain come up on this blog a couple times, though.
The best part is cut out of the picture, but it gives you the idea.
I'm personally waiting for the REEDZONE model.
Given the timing of these two events, it now explains the HAM weather site's forecast of below average temperatures in the 6 to 10 day forecast for the central gulf states, and 8 to 14 day forecasts for Florida.
Before I had looked at the GFS it sort of didn't make sense why that was being done.
Take a look at global temperature separated out by El Nino/La Nina/neutral ENSO periods.
If the last 12 (La Nina) months were the hottest on record for the US then what does the immediate future hold in store? Even a move to ENSO neutral conditions could crank up the temps....
LOS ANGELES May 8, 2012 (AP)
Over 1,300 Tubes Damaged at Calif. Nuclear Plant
More than 1,300 tubes that carry radioactive water inside the San Onofre nuclear plant in Southern California are so damaged that they will be taken out of service, the utility that runs the plant said Tuesday.
The figures released by Southern California Edison are the latest disclosure in a probe of equipment problems that have kept the coastal plant sidelined for more than three months.
At issue has been the integrity of tubing that snakes through the plant's four steam generators, which were installed in a multimillion-dollar makeover in 2009 and 2010.
A company statement said that as of Monday, 510 tubes had been plugged, or retired from use, in the Unit 2 reactor, and 807 tubes in its sister, Unit 3. Each of the generators has nearly 10,000 tubes, and the number retired is well within the limit allowed to continue operation.
The statement comes just days after an Edison executive said the company hopes to restart at least one of the twin reactors next month. The company is drafting a plan under which the reactors would run at reduced power, at least for several months, because engineers believe that will solve a problem with vibration that the company believes has been causing unusual wear in the alloy tubing.
Government regulators say there is no timetable for a restart, which would require federal approval.
A joint statement issued Tuesday by Edison and the agency that operates the state's wholesale power system, the California Independent System Operator, said the possible June dates are for planning and subject to change.
"There is no timeline on nuclear safety," Edison President Ron Litzinger said.
Activists viewed the new figures as another alarming sign following a tube break in January, which prompted Edison to shut down the Unit 3 reactor as a precaution. Traces of radiation escaped at the time, but officials said there was no danger to workers or neighbors.
Unit 2 was taken offline in January for routine maintenance, but investigators later confirmed accelerated wear on tubing in both units.
"It seems that these new steam generators are falling apart and Edison doesn't know why. It would be foolhardy to restart, even at reduced power, under the current circumstances," said Daniel Hirsch, a nuclear watchdog who lectures on nuclear policy at the University of California, Santa Cruz.
Ted Craver, chairman of SCE parent Edison International, told investors in a phone call last week that unusual wear was found in about 1 percent of nearly 39,000 tubes in the steam generators.
Costs related to the long-running shutdown could climb over $100 million, company officials say, and state officials have warned about possible rotating blackouts in Southern California while the reactors are offline.
About 7.4 million Californians live within 50 miles of San Onofre, which can power 1.4 million homes.
The plant is owned by SCE, San Diego Gas & Electric and the city of Riverside. The Unit 1 reactor operated from 1968 to 1992, when it was shut down and dismantled.
Yes sir, Grothar. Alicia was, without a doubt, home grown. No sooner had Alicia formed then it was time to make plans.
I got to work one morning and people were talking about making plans for the hurricane. I asked, "What hurricane?". They told me to look out the window. ;-)
I'm glad those who need it did/will be getting much needed rain. Our rain chances are over the water much as the GFS and my NWS had said it would be. Guess we'll see. Always interesting reading various forecasts. You can usually tell who's a fan of which model. Lol.
Lol. They do have a habit of sneaking up on you sometimes. :)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
159 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012
FLZ043-048-049-051-052-056-057-061-GMZ850-091915-
DESOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-PAS CO-POLK-SUMTER-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 20 NM-
159 PM EDT WED MAY 9 2012
.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER
THE INTERIOR FROM NEAR ZEPHYRHILLS THROUGH POLK COUNTY TO SEBRING AND
VENUS. A FEW OTHER SHOWERS WERE OVER THE GULF 10 TO 30 MILES OFF
HERNANDO BEACH. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
$$
TD
Who said that?
The neutral trend line there is increasing by an average of about 0.147C per decade.
IN 88 years that's an additional 1.29C above present day (not climatological historical norms) if the linear trend continues.
Since the trend is most closely related to human population curve and human standards of living, it's likely the average slope of the line will increase by as much as about 30% or more during the next 20 years. Since world population should increase by 27% to 30% during the next 20 years(primarily India and Pakistan, which will produce about 300 million to 600 million net population growth during the next 20 years, or 1 to 2 U.S. populations,) and more 3rd world and developing nations will be increasing their productivity and consumption, it may actually grow faster than that.
Canada has admitted that they will not only fail to meet their cuts in CO2 emissions by 2020, but that their emissions will actually grow by 17%, rather than being decreased. This figure is actually growing much faster than their population curve, even though they are actively trying to cut CO2 emissions.
Hey bud! Long time no *poof*... How you been?? ;)
Picture taken in Bayou La Batre
Link
It has rained 4-5 inches at my house in the past week, and it looks like we do it again next week with a very weak low.
And if that TS forms, which i doubt it will, we may eventually get to flooding concerns. My family's yard is moosh right now.
Probably not, but I know you....
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