Azores storm could become Subtropical Storm Alberto
An interesting and surprising hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 400 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands. This low, designated Invest 92L by NHC today, has developed an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, despite the fact that it is over cold ocean waters with temperatures of 66°F (19°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. However, there is quite cold air aloft, so the temperature difference between the surface the upper levels has been great enough to create sufficient instability for 92L to organize. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 63 mph at 1:45 pm EDT Saturday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 50 mph at 2 pm EDT Saturday.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite photo of Invest 92L, taken at 16 UTC May 12, 2012, by NASA's Aqua satellite. Image credit: NASA.
NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a named storm by Monday. They will be reluctant to name it Alberto unless the storm can maintain it's current level of heavy thunderstorm activity for at least 6 - 12 hours. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have weakened some during the afternoon, making it less likely NHC will be inclined to name it; the fact that 92L is over waters of 66°F (19°C) hurts its chances. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 19°C, during Tropical Storm Grace of 2009. Grace holds the record for being the farthest northeast forming tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. Like 92L, Grace also formed near the Azores Islands, but in early October. The coldest waters I've seen a hurricane form in were 22°C, for Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. Latest guidance from the computer models show 92L meandering to the south of the Azores through Monday, then beginning a slow motion towards the northeast by Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 — Blog Index
It's no longer associated with a front! The convection has just skyrocketed over the center, come on
Ya and it just broke off of the front
NAME IT!
If they didn't name it yesterday when it looked its best they certainly won't name it now... It's definitely improved and still improving but it has a little ways to go still
Well, it's PERSISTENTLY producing convection.... Why not go ahead and name it?
Yea the dang thing had an eye
Yes and no, the difference between yesterdays burst and todays burst is that yesterday, 92L was indeed attached to the front, which gave it support. Todays burst, there is no front, this is holding it's own. Probably a Post Season Storm. UNNAMED SUBTROPICAL STORM.
You need to read my first blog entry of 2012, which details TC impacts in The Bahamas over the last 10 years.
Depending on how much of a pattern shift we see this year, this could be 2004 all over again for FL, trackwise, anyway.
92L will be classified:
A. Next update
B. The update after that
C. Postseason
D. Never
E. Tomorrow sometime
But not this
Come on guys
They wouldn't name it yesterday cause it was still attached to a cold front. Since it's detached it has a higher chance of being named. Needs to last 12-24hrs on it's own.
Should be A
Wheres Levi
We need his imput
I'm gonna have to go with C. NHC has been very strict with naming good storms..
C or D, probably D
Should be A, but ill say C, they are so reluctant, probably because before satellite era it would go unnoticed and the cold SST, but they will go back and call it I'm sure. They just don't want break the season with a storm like this.
Jose
92L
C
Good point. :)
Has STS formation over the eastern half of the ATL been on the increase of late? Or is it just that we have better imagery to see for ourselves what's been happening all along?
BTW, it looks like the Azores are going to get some impacts from this. I always find it quite amusing in a suprising sort of way that those islands receive regular impacts from tropical cyclones.....
Yeah, probably couple of hours of persistence in convection may change their tune.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1235 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-140445-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1235 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE AND A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL COMBINE WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. THIS INTERACTION
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. STORM MOTION WILL INITIALLY BE TO THE WEST AS THE
STORMS DEVELOP AND ARE STEERED BY THE SEA BREEZE BUT THEN AN EAST
TO NORTHEAST DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE STATE AS
THE STORMS BECOME MORE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED.
.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
WEATHER AND OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SEVERAL
RIP CURRENT RELATED RESCUES THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CHECK WITH
THE BEACH PATROL FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...SWIM ONLY WITHIN
SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM ALONE.
.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER INLAND LAKES...RIVERS...THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY AND THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. BOATERS SHOULD KEEP A
WEATHER WATCH TO THE WESTERN SKIES THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPROACHING
STORMS AND SEEK SAFE HARBOR IF STORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD YOUR
LOCATION.
.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...ROUGH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS SHORT
PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT VENTURING
INTO THE ATLANTIC SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTIONS.
.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A MODERATE TO HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES OVER MOST
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.
$$
BRAGAW
FARTHER EAST...A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N33W THAT SUPPORTS A NEARLY COLLOCATED
1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N33W. THIS LOW MAINTAINS
ISOLATED CONVECTION VERY NEAR THE CENTER...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT HAS DECREASED.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N50W TO 18N30W. AS
NOTED ABOVE IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION...A LARGE AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 25N E
OF 35W...AND S OF 15N E OF 55W.
Doesn't look good for naming of 92L.... IF they do anything, will likely be at 2 a.m. our time. However, since it seems likely to drift south, and thus not impact land, it may not get named at all.
So did the blizzard of 2006, are you saying that storm deserves a name?
Good afternoon Baha..how's the weather in the Bahamas?
Forcast tracks, ameister?
No it didn't, it had no tropical characteristics, and this was rightfully not named because it was on I front I'm simply noting it was strong and had an eye
I wouldn't keep that up... It may be mistaken for a real outlook and the admins don't like that...
Here are the current Model tracks. I'd say it has a pretty good chance of becoming a tropical storm. I'd give it a 70% chance of developing within the next 48 hours.
your going too end up geting bannd from the blog for posting things like that one day
SO
are you implying that thebloggers and admins can't read what I said before I wrote the STWO statement
Viewing: 501 - 551
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 — Blog Index