Azores storm could become Subtropical Storm Alberto
An interesting and surprising hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 400 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands. This low, designated Invest 92L by NHC today, has developed an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, despite the fact that it is over cold ocean waters with temperatures of 66°F (19°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. However, there is quite cold air aloft, so the temperature difference between the surface the upper levels has been great enough to create sufficient instability for 92L to organize. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 63 mph at 1:45 pm EDT Saturday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 50 mph at 2 pm EDT Saturday.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite photo of Invest 92L, taken at 16 UTC May 12, 2012, by NASA's Aqua satellite. Image credit: NASA.
NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a named storm by Monday. They will be reluctant to name it Alberto unless the storm can maintain it's current level of heavy thunderstorm activity for at least 6 - 12 hours. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have weakened some during the afternoon, making it less likely NHC will be inclined to name it; the fact that 92L is over waters of 66°F (19°C) hurts its chances. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 19°C, during Tropical Storm Grace of 2009. Grace holds the record for being the farthest northeast forming tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. Like 92L, Grace also formed near the Azores Islands, but in early October. The coldest waters I've seen a hurricane form in were 22°C, for Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. Latest guidance from the computer models show 92L meandering to the south of the Azores through Monday, then beginning a slow motion towards the northeast by Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Personally I don't pay attention at all to any model run at 240 hours regardless of the circumstance, because 240 hours out is still 240 hours out, that's just me though, lol.
An area of low pressure begins to consolidate north of Honduras in 5 and a half days or so.
Sooner than that even... The low is there around 6 or 7 days
Yep... I'm sure things will change but the consistency today gives us a little hope at least
I've had my shudders up for two weeks waiting for this GFS storm to materialize.
I'll start paying attention when things get more interesting, I don't have that much faith in long term forecasts, for good reason.
Lol! I put mine up earlier today when someone mentioned the XTRP had 92L heading for Boston!
Have you seen a psychologist yet?
lol
The disturbance is expected to peak with 60-70mph winds on May 25.
How is it possible to go May 23, May 24, then back to May 23? lol.
I got them wrong! lol
It might even be likely, if you trust the consistency the ECMWF has been showing.
I say 60-70...
Wayback Machine. Grothar has one....
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012
FLC021-140015-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0018.120513T2321Z-120514T0015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
721 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WEST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NAPLES...
* UNTIL 815 PM EDT
* AT 717 PM EDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS AFFECTING AREAS FROM EAST NAPLES NORTHWEST TO
NAPLES AND AREAS NEAR THE GOLDEN GATE ESTATES. RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF
1 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THESE AREAS AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR SO OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS,
STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW
LYING SPOTS. RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS IN CANALS
AND DITCHES.
TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
LAT...LON 2632 8174 2632 8167 2638 8166 2640 8164
2625 8157 2606 8171 2615 8182 2625 8183
$$
GARCIA
*Click the image to enlarge it*
This predicted Caribbean disturbance is expected to become named probably on May 22, which is a good 9 days out from now. On May 23 the storm plows into Cuba with 50 mph winds and a minimum pressure of about 996 mbar. The storm does not skip a beat after passing Cuba and continues to strengthen with a larger wind field. After heading generally N and NE, the storm becomes extratropical on May 25 after powering 65 mph and proceeds off to the NE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
618 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012
AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-140445-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
618 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES MAY STILL ALLOW ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS
WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ANY ISOLATED STORMS WHICH FORM OVER THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS...AND
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS.
.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET BEYOND ABOUT 20 MILES OF THE
COAST WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS...AND SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND SEVERAL APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
LIGHTNING STORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS MAY RETURN
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT.
$$
SPRATT
What will the impacts in Florida be? Will we see more rainfall or more of a dry, wildfire threat? Will winds be an issue, rainfall be a concern, how will Florida be affected (SE, in particular).
That would be me... LOL
MONSOON TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE HAVE BEEN INDUCING SCATTERED TO
MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION ENHANCED BY WARM SST AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TODAY...BUT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTERN-MOST LOW ALONG 118W HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
PAST FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE
BULLISH IN INTENSIFYING THE EASTERN-MOST LOW ALONG 104.5W IN
RECENT DAYS...BUT HAVE SINCE MODERATED THEIR INTENSIFICATION.
THIS LOW DOES HOWEVER APPEAR BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AND HAS A MODERATE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR LIES TO
THE NW OF THIS SYSTEM AND COMBINED WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN
WIND SHEAR MAY BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN IT NOT BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED.
this is what NHC is saying.
Based just on GFS data, it appears wind will not be too much of an issue as winds are predicted to be mostly on the eastern side of the storm (away from Florida). However, 25 mph gusts are probably likely with winds from the NE. The main threat will most likely be rain, but I do not know how much precipitation will fall (just expect tropical moisture, downpours). That's just solely on the GFS data and when we get closer to the target date more info will be provided.
How did you make that?
I quickly made it using Paint and based data off the wind forecasts provided from the GFS on the WunderMap. :)
Meanwhile, 92L has no convection again...
The Azores must be pretty annoyed at how they keep getting continuous storm activity
Doesn't seem like a whole much of a big deal, winds are even less than what Irene gave us last year (gusts between 35 and 40 MPH), and we need the rainfall. I was never overly concerned about the impacts here, I just know that whenever there's a lot of rainfall in Cuba, flooding often occurs (e.g. Alberto of 2006), which interestingly enough shares the name of this hypothetical storm.
1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE BY TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
levi other models have jumped on board with the caribbean system:-
GFS,GFS ensembles,NAEFS,CMC,Noaa's FIM,nogaps to some extent,also HWRF,and also GFDL(both gfdl&hwrf ar just showing signs of something of the sort)
It's forecaster brown not beven.
Well it was Beven earlier lol.
60%, Thats what i figured.
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