Azores storm could become Subtropical Storm Alberto
An interesting and surprising hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 400 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands. This low, designated Invest 92L by NHC today, has developed an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, despite the fact that it is over cold ocean waters with temperatures of 66°F (19°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. However, there is quite cold air aloft, so the temperature difference between the surface the upper levels has been great enough to create sufficient instability for 92L to organize. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 63 mph at 1:45 pm EDT Saturday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 50 mph at 2 pm EDT Saturday.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite photo of Invest 92L, taken at 16 UTC May 12, 2012, by NASA's Aqua satellite. Image credit: NASA.
NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a named storm by Monday. They will be reluctant to name it Alberto unless the storm can maintain it's current level of heavy thunderstorm activity for at least 6 - 12 hours. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have weakened some during the afternoon, making it less likely NHC will be inclined to name it; the fact that 92L is over waters of 66°F (19°C) hurts its chances. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 19°C, during Tropical Storm Grace of 2009. Grace holds the record for being the farthest northeast forming tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. Like 92L, Grace also formed near the Azores Islands, but in early October. The coldest waters I've seen a hurricane form in were 22°C, for Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. Latest guidance from the computer models show 92L meandering to the south of the Azores through Monday, then beginning a slow motion towards the northeast by Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I can send you this one which is more useful. You will be able to track the entire basin. The SST's have really warmed in the past month.
Link
GFS with the other models to back it up
I need to start to prep my self then soon maybe I will do it on wed
Here is another one for you.
Link
Good to see the high wind shear in the gulf of mexico
alttle eirly for this stuff still
and abit in the NW caribbean however that it to change as early as tues maybe late monday when an upper level anticyclone take over the SW caribbean
THE DEEP CYCLONE/NOR'EASTER FORECAST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HYBRID SYSTEM AS IT HOVERS
NEAR THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. EVEN IF IT REMAINS COLD CORE...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
LEAD TO LOWERED PRESSURES/DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE BASE OF ITS UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...NORMALLY A PROBLEM WHEN A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE
FORMS BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA. HEAVY COMMA HEAD
RAINS/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA/NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A
MORE COASTAL ROUTE AS SEEN IN THE 00Z ECMWF. IF IT DEVELOPS AND
STAYS FARTHER OFFSHORE...IT COULD EVOLVE INTO A WILDFIRE CONCERN
FOR SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA WHICH ARE WITHIN THEIR
ANNUAL SPRING DROUGHT...SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION SEEN DURING
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREAS DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY MAY 2007. THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN BY ECMWF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS
IS DIFFERENT THAN THAT OF 2007 EVOLUTION OF ANDREAS...BUT THE
FINAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANDREAS INTO ITS SUBTROPICAL FORM IS SIMILAR
IN THE MID LEVEL H500 FLOW OF THIS EVENT.
happy mother's day
I definitely will!
Good morning CybrTeddy. The 00Z run of the ECMWF definitely does look interesting. I don't know for sure because the FSU Tropical Cyclone Phase Diagrams for the ECMWF haven't been upgraded in over a month, but its appearance on the model is that of a subtropical/tropical mix. It strengthens quickly over the Gulf Stream, yet Surface wind maps show gusty winds well away from the center.
They're saying it could be very similar to Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea in 2007.
OK, I have to let that one slide. :)
Well lets hope not
Thanks
Note: Time to check your supplies for the up coming season everyone!
Well, the XTRP is saying Boston is in the line of fire.... Better start evacuations now!
Sarcasm Flag: ON
I would love to watch another one of those. The fact that it hits where I live directly is even better lol.
but why? The XTRP is my favorite model!
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW ABOUT
460 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS
DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS
DECREASED...AND THE SYSTEM NOW HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR MONDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FORGET ABOUT IT!
nothing for 90E ?
But what about wind shear?
May 9, 2007 (date of formation):
May 12, 2012:
turn your user name Red when its about time to renew
membership
Thanks
blsealevel
Happy Mother's Day!
yep Caribbean system that gfs and other are forecasting will most likely become our 1st storm
92L:
Thanks WxGeekVA.
It's running out of time though, it has a little more than a day left.
Because we see a possible storm in a particular run, it does not necessarily mean we are going to have one. When they don't materialize, we will often hear statements like, "Oh, they are always wrong, they don't know what they are doing, they over-hype, they are not reliable".
Even though they always have disclaimers on them, we do not always pay attention. While statistically we know some models are better than others, it is good we have the advantage of different opinions from them. On the long range models we are aware they change on each run. That is the purpose for which they were designed.
An analogy can be drawn by certain expression parents use in New York. If their children misbehave one often hears the expression "Do that again and I will break your legs" Well, I am sure, while the thought is there, the intent is not. We should treat models in much the same manner.
Most of us have been on here long enough to have heard expressions like, "Eventually the models will come around to my way of thinking" Well, excuuuuuuuuuuse me! I just use them as tools and guidance. After all, the only thing written in stone is my birth certificate.
85GHz
Rain Estimates:
Wind:
Vapor:
I think he literally means that, too. :P
Everybody talks about how good they are, but that appears to only work for systems that are already well developed. Of course, we fly drones and hurricane hunters into well developed systems, so they have better data inputs too, but just look at the false positives.
The GFS has pushed back the Caribbean low scenario by nearly 12 hours, every 12 hours, for the past 4 or 5 days.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
505 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-132200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
505 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BR FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND AREAS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
$$
PRC
75W AND IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER HONDURAS. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
75W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-77W
INCLUDING W JAMAICA. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BANK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE
WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK. THE WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH THU AS
THE W ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS.
I've been kindly reminded by admins that this is off topic, so I have removed this YouTube clip.
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