Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH
Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti SpÃritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20Â in (510Â mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.
Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.
Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.
Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.
July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.
Jeff Masters
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Reader Comments
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Dry pattern upper level pattern of ridging aloft and at the surface continues to support little if any rainfall over the area has been the case for the past 1.5-2 weeks. Ground moisture is starting to dry with the hot afternoon temperatures and gusty south winds
2011 versus 2012 Rainfall:
While the last few weeks have been very dry, rainfall for the first part of 2012 has been extremely heavy with some locations recording their first or second wettest year to date starts on record. Most locations are averaging between 3-4 times greater rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011.
Sugar Land: 5.89 vs 30.18 (over 5 times the amount of rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011)
College Station: 7.66 vs 23.12
Crockett: 12.03 vs 21.65
Bush IAH: 6.96 vs 22.24
Hobby: 5.40 vs 26.29
Galveston: 7.73 vs 20.82
Matagorda: 5.31 vs 21.44
Tomball: 4.32 vs 13.63
Victoria: 6.13 vs 11.81
**Even while rain has been HUGE this year, already north of I-10 and east of I-45 where current KBDI values are pushing into the 500-600 range indicating that vegetation health is starting to suffer due to lack of ground moisture**
After all number crunching which is meaningless in the end, TX is still in the hole, These numbers "look impressive" but in reality are still unacceptable...
Waitning on the breeze and rain here in ILM.
There is enough moisture that daytime heating should allow for the development of numerous rain storms across the Tampa Bay area, so areas that missed the rain overnight that dumped up to 11 inches north of Tampa should see some rain today.
Its Strongest Winds will be in the NE Quadrant Offshore
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =CWBF1
we are moving from La Nina towards El Nino and
SST's are lower than 2010, but still higher
than average. Thus we should expect a near
average to below average Hurricane season.
Is that it in a nutshell ?
If we don't get another named storm in 2 months I'll believe it
Expect 1 Inches
KUDOS to the NHC on some great forecasting with Beryl! Those guys know their stuff and just keep getting better every year- IMO
I'm just wondering if Beryl gets out over water sooner and has less interaction with the coastline, could we see more significant strengthening than forecast?
With the water being so warm, and the structure so well intact, it would take much for Beryl to really get going again.
Not Really (At least not with this one).... They forcasted Beryl to make landfall at 50mph in North Georgia and make the turn fast.
It made landfall in Jacksonville, Florida at 70/75mph and Took its sweet time.
NHC did not get this one right at all.
Totally disagree...they did great job! They just didn't over-hype it like some on hear were asking for.
Let's just put it this way...NHC and NOAA didn't think 2 named storms would have passed before the season started.....case closed.
Can you prove that?
Yea, ask all of them.
Did u talk to all of them personally or did they issue a statement?
I Typically agree with the National Hurricane Center, but this time i am at odds with them. An intensity forcast of 50mph at landfall when it was 40mph with 36 hours to go, including going over the gulf stream was incorrect. They didnt over-hype it, they under-hyped it, if you were watching the Jacksonville Pier Cam, people were swimming intill the "eye wall" came in. That is the problem with under-hyping any type of tropical cyclone, people think it is a joke, and put themselves in harms way.
How do you feel about that carribean disturbance, may bring more rain to area's on the gulf coast
You can't change stupidity! They would have been there no matter what.
Lets ask them, lol
If this comes to pass, this could turn into a brutal Nor'easter(I believe) as it races northeastwards up the East Coast and phases with the weekend trough!!!
Me too
"... already north of I-10 and east of I-45 where current KBDI values are pushing into the 500-600 range indicating that vegetation health is starting to suffer due to lack of ground moisture ...
Yes. I can attest to this. I am lightly watering my pecan trees now to keep some moisture in the soil.
Cody asks them questions on facebook
Comic Relief
I have gone to the lake (NOT SWIMMING) during many tropical storms but when I hear hurricane, I hunker down baby... Gotta oil and gas up that chainsaw.
Scratch the swimming part, I went swimming during lee last year. Not in the open part of lake pontchartrain, a sea wall flooded
Well they did but they didnt I think. The top sustained wind i've seen so far has been 47MPH at Mayport (and 54MPH at Huguenot Park) at 11pm Sunday night. There was one gust of 73MPH at Buck island as it came on shore, the fastest gust recorded that ive seen. There were no sustained winds over 55MPH that i have seen, and definitely not 70MPH sustained winds. It was upgraded to 70MPH when the hurricane hunters flew threw an intense thunderstorm band as it was just off the coast, however it weakened as it came ashore. I dont think they totally messed up the forecast, they had been calling for 50-60MPH the whole time and from the reports thats what happened. Just sayin.
That's how he makes money right der
Have cash on hand as ATM's won't work without da powa'
Note the cash in Hurlo's Belt,
My thoughts on the matter, is that it did reach 70mph over the gulf stream, but was on a weakening trend as it made landfall.
This has been a drought buster for N Florida, and S Georgia
Mayport, FL: sustained winds of 54mph gust to 63mph
Kings Bay Naval Sub Base: 65mph winds, wind gage failed.
Buck Island, FL: 73mph wind gust
Buoy, 42 miles ENE of St Augustine FL: sustained peak wind of 51mph gust to 67mph, pressure 994mb.
Well, winds are reduced greatly by land friction
That's expected with Katrina, winds were 130 and I was 30 miles from landfall (right under the eye wall and our top winds were 85, not 130
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 29 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-011
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 30/1800Z, 31/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0402A BERYL
C. 30/1530Z
D. 34.0N 78.5W
E. 30/1730Z TO 31/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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