The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season begins: what is in store?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:56 GMT le 01 juin 2012

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The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway. With two early season storms, Alberto and Beryl, having already come and gone, this year's season has gotten off to a near-record early start. Since reliable record keeping began in 1851, only the hurricane seasons of 1908 and 1887 had two named storms form so early in the year. So, will this early pace continue? What will this year's hurricane season bring? Here are my top five questions for the coming season:

1) All of the major seasonal hurricane forecasts are calling for a near-average season, with 10 - 13 named storms. Will these pre-season predictions pan out?

2) How will the steering current pattern evolve? Will the U.S. break its six-year run without a major hurricane landfall, the longest such streak since 1861 - 1868?

3) Will the 420,000 people still homeless in Haiti in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake dodge a major tropical cyclone flooding disaster for the third consecutive hurricane season?

4) How will new National Hurricane Center director Rick Knabb fare in his inaugural season?

5) Will the Republican National Convention, scheduled to occur in Tampa during the last week of August, get interrupted by a tropical storm or hurricane?


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Quick summary of the early-season atmosphere/ocean conditions in the Atlantic
Strong upper-level winds tend to create a shearing force on tropical storms (wind shear), which tears them apart before they can get going. In June, two branches of the jet stream, the polar jet to the north, and a subtropical jet to the south, typically bring high levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The southern subtropical jet currently lies over the Caribbean, and is expected to remain there the next two weeks, making development unlikely in the Caribbean. Between the subtropical jet to the south and the polar jet to the north, a "hole" in the wind shear pattern formed during May off the Southeast U.S. coast, and this is where both Alberto and Beryl were able to form. Their formation was aided by the fact ocean temperatures off the U.S. East coast are quite warm--about 1 - 2°C above average. A wind shear "hole" is predicted to periodically open up during the next two weeks off the Southeast U.S. coast, making that region the most likely area of formation for any first-half-of-June tropical storms. However, none of the reliable computer models are predicting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic between now and June 8.

May ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are approximately the third coolest we've seen since the current active hurricane period began in 1995. SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR), between 10 - 20°N latitude, from the coast of Africa to the Central America, were about 0.35°C above average in May, according to NOAA's Coral Reef Watch. Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic is strongly dependent on ocean temperatures in this region, and the relatively cool temperatures imply that we should see a delayed start to development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa and moving into the Caribbean, compared to the period 1995 - 2011. An interesting feature of this month's SST departure from average image (Figure 2) is the large area of record-warm ocean temperatures off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, from North Carolina to Massachusetts. Ocean temperatures are 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F) above average in this region. This makes waters of much above-average warmth likely to be present during the peak part of hurricane season, increasing the chances for a strong hurricane to affect the mid-Atlantic and New England coast.

The upper-level jet stream pattern is critical for determining where any tropical storms and hurricanes that form might go. Presently, these "steering currents" are in a typical configuration for June, favoring a northward or northeastward motion for any storms that might form. However, steering current patterns are fickle and difficult to predict more that seven days in advance, and there is no telling how the steering current pattern might evolve this hurricane season. We might see a pattern like evolved during 2004 - 2005, with a westward-extending Bermuda High, forcing storms into Florida and the Gulf Coast. Or, we might see a pattern like occurred during 2010 - 2011, with the large majority of the storms recurving harmlessly out to sea. That's about as helpful as a weather forecast of "Sho' enough looks like rain, lessen' of course it clears up," I realize.


Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for May 31, 2012. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Colorado State predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season
A slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2012, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 1 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 80, which is 87% of average. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. The forecast calls for an average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also average, at 39% (42% is average.) The CSU teams expects we will have a weak El Niño develop by the peak of this year's hurricane season in September, which will cut down on this year's activity by increasing wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral El Niño conditions in April - May and average tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic SSTs during
April - May, followed by August - October periods that were generally characterized by weak El Niño conditions and average tropical Atlantic SSTs . Those four years were 2009, a quiet El Niño year with only 3 hurricanes; 2001, which featured two major Caribbean hurricanes, Iris and Michelle; 1968, a very quiet year with no hurricanes stronger than a Category 1; and 1953, a moderately busy year with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The mean activity for these four years was 11.5 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team between 1998 and 2009 had a skill 19% - 30% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 3). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. Unfortunately, the CSU June 1 forecasts do poorly at forecasting the number of major hurricanes (only 3% skill), and major hurricanes cause 80% - 85% of all hurricane damage (normalized to current population and wealth levels.) This year's June forecast uses a brand new formula tried in 2011 for the first time, so there is no way to evaluate its performance. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.41 to 0.62 for their June forecasts made between 1984 and 2010, which is respectable.


Figure 3. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.


Figure 4. Comparison of the percent improvement in mean square error over climatology for seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 2002-2011, using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS). The figure shows the results using two different climatologies: a fixed 50-year (1950 - 1999) climatology, and a 2002 - 2011 climatology. Skill is poor for forecasts issued in December and April, moderate for June forecasts, and good for August forecasts. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.

TSR predicts a near-average hurricane season
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for 12.7 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 98, which is near average. TSR rates their skill level as 23 - 27% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology, though an independent assessment by the National Hurricane Center (Figure 3) gives them somewhat lower skill numbers, using a different metric than TSR uses. TSR predicts a 48% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be above average, a 26% chance it will be near average, and a 26% chance it will be below average. TSR’s two predictors for their statistical model are the forecast July-September trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic, and the forecast August-September 2012 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic.

TSR projects that 3.6 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2011 climatology are 3.1 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. They rate their skill at making these June forecasts for U.S. landfalls at 7 - 11% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.2 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

FSU predicts a slightly above-average hurricane season: 13 named storms
The Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) issued their fourth annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast, calling for a 70% probability of 10 - 16 named storms and 5 - 9 hurricanes. The mid-point forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 122. The scientists use a numerical atmospheric model developed at COAPS to understand seasonal predictability of hurricane activity. The model is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity and is different from the statistical methods used by other seasonal hurricane forecasters such as Colorado State, TSR, and PSU (NOAA uses a hybrid statistical-dynamical model technique.) The FSU forecast has been the best one over the past three years, for predicting numbers of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes:

2009 prediction: 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes. Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes
2010 prediction: 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes
2011 prediction: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes. Actual: 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes

Penn State predicts a near-average hurricane season: 11 named storms
A statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for an average Atlantic hurricane season with 11.2 named storms, plus or minus 3.3 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistic model assumes that in 2012 the current 0.35°C above average temperatures in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be neutral to slightly warm, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5, named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19

UK Met Office predicts a slightly below-average hurricane season: 10 named storms
The UK Met Office uses a combination of their Glosea4 model and the ECMWF system 4 model to predict seasonal hurricane activity. These dynamical numerical models are predicting a slightly below-average season, with 10 named storms and an ACE index of 90.

NOAA predicts an average hurricane season: 12 named storms
As I discussed in detail in a May 24 blog post, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal.



NOAA predicts an average Eastern Pacific hurricane season
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 24, calls for a near-average season, with 12 -18 named storms, 5 - 9 hurricanes, 2 - 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 70% - 130% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index exactly average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. So far in 2012, there have been two named storms. On average, the 2nd storm of the year doesn't form until June 25. We had a record early appearance of the season's second named storm (Bud on May 21.) Bud was also the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year. Records in the Eastern Pacific extend back to 1949.

Western Pacific typhoon season forecast not available yet
Dr. Johnny Chan of the City University of Hong Kong issues a seasonal forecast of typhoon season in the Western Pacific, but this forecast is not yet available (as of June 1.) An average typhoon season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons. Typhoon seasons immediately following a La Niña year typically see higher levels of activity in the South China Sea, especially between months of May and July. Also, the jet stream tends to dip farther south than usual to the south of Japan, helping steer more tropical cyclones towards Japan and Korea. With the formation of Tropical Storm Mawar today east of the Philippines, the Western Pacific is exactly on the usual climatological pace for formation of the season's third storm.


Figure 5. Time series of the annual number of tropical storms and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific from 1960 - 2011. Red circles and blue squares indicate El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. Note that La Niña years tend to have lower activity, with 2010 having the lowest activity on record (15 named storms.) In 2011, there were 20 named storms. The thick horizontal line indicates the normal number of named storms (27.) Image credit: City University of Hong Kong.

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1797. K8eCane
still trying to learn how to post links...highest tide ever in southport nc without a storm
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


"Tropical Storm Edouard is going to cause severe damage in the Houston area."
-"Dr." Tim Heller
Quoting angiest:


Hey, Edouard was good for a day off work.

I think we actually had some heavier rains during the drought last year than Edouard gave us.


The problem is that people are not going to take stronger storms seriously because Heller cranked up the hype machine just to have a good bit of news for that day.
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1795. K8eCane
https://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/550886_10 151787194830710_221657940709_24665943_1589283578_n .jpgLink

The State Port Pilot
THIS IS SALT WATER. You would be unwise to drive through it. Tonight's is among the highest tides we've ever witnessed here absent stormlike conditions.
L
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1794. nigel20
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Quiet... But for how long?

Hey galveston...what's up?
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7470
This is cool:

Japanese Scientists Find Mysterious Cosmic Ray Evidence
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Quiet... But for how long?
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1791. angiest
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


"Tropical Storm Edouard is going to cause severe damage in the Houston area."
-"Dr." Tim Heller


Hey, Edouard was good for a day off work.

I think we actually had some heavier rains during the drought last year than Edouard gave us.
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Quoting angiest:


Hah. :)

I never watch channel 13 news. It just happened to be what we had on.


"Tropical Storm Edouard is going to cause severe damage in the Houston area."
-"Dr." Tim Heller
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Quoting Tribucanes:
Too much shear ruined the first called for outbreak
Huh?
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1788. angiest
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Tim Heller will just give his usual baloney.


Hah. :)

I never watch channel 13 news. It just happened to be what we had on.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Use the following list of folders

Use webManager or WebManagerIR and post the latest gif....

One folder has the IR animation the other is the WV


Just right click the image, copy image location, and paste it on the Image on Wunderground. No 3rd party required!
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Quoting angiest:
For my fellow Houstonians, channel 13 is doing their beginning of hurricane season special now.


Tim Heller will just give his usual baloney.
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1785. angiest
For my fellow Houstonians, channel 13 is doing their beginning of hurricane season special now.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Mawar on MIMIC..


Use the following list of folders

Link

Look in the webManager or WebManagerIR Folders and post the latest gif....

One folder has the IR animation the other is the WV
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1783. wxmod
Quoting sunlinepr:


It could be Aspergillus, camel hair, scorpion or snake skin from the Sahara.....


No joke, last week all cars had a thin film of Monserrat volcanic ash...


:)
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1782. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Weird storm.


Indeed.


Quoting aspectre:
1631 Patrap: Carbon Dioxide Now at Troubling New Milestone of 400 PPM

I find myself wondering if that extra plus3.54PPM above MaunaLoa's most recent weekly average is due to decomposition of organic material that until recently was trapped in the now-unfrozen "perma"frost.


Methane hasn't followed that trend so far this spring..
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Quoting wxmod:


At least you know what it is. Cough.


It could be Aspergillus, camel hair, scorpion or snake skin from the Sahara.....


No joke, last week all cars had a thin film of Monserrat volcanic ash...
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1780. nigel20
Quoting MississippiWx:


Probably not as high as it was with this girl bearing down on the coast:



Or this one...


Two of the most powerful hurricanes in the Atlantic...good evening everyone!
Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 7470
1779. wxmod
Quoting sunlinepr:


Ahhgg!! So good to have Saharan dust in my lungs....





At least you know what it is. Cough.
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1631 Patrap: Carbon Dioxide Now at Troubling New Milestone of 400 PPM

I find myself wondering if that extra plus3.54PPM above MaunaLoa's most recent weekly average is due to decomposition of organic material that until recently was trapped in the now-unfrozen "perma"frost.
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wxmod...................preaching to the choir brother.
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1776. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
TYPHOON AMBO (MAWAR)
11:00 AM PhST June 4 2012
=======================================

Typhoon "AMBO" has maintained its strength and continues to move away from the country

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ambo (Mawar) was located at 21.7°N 126.4°E or 400 km east northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gust of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots

Additional Information
=======================

Typhoon "AMBO" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas especially the western section which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 20-30 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards Luzon and the western seaboard of Visayas due to the combined effects of Typhoon "AMBO" and the southwest monsoon.

Meanwhile, an Active Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 810 km east of southern Mindanao 6.5°N, 133.5°E.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Mawar on MIMIC..


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The Republican convention will go off without a hitch, because global warming is not occurring. Global cooling is actually what is happening. Heartland is clear on this scientific fact. Sure they don't have scientists working for them, but should that really matter? But in all seriousness this will be an above average year with Haiti and Florida or Georgia or the Carolina's taking direct hits if steering patterns don't change. Rick Knabb will be fine, hard to screw up with all the data available now. A good pick to be sure, Rick will validate his selection. Will be an action packed year I think, can't wait for the exciting season to come. Just hope the fatalities stay at zero. Inevitably there's always someone wind-surfing in a TS. Cool videos to watch.............until they come down. Stay safe all.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Mawar on MIMIC..

Weird storm.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
1772. Skyepony (Mod)
Mawar on MIMIC..
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Found this video of the tornado in Bel Air on the 1st, was rated an EF-1 by the NWS.



Warning: strong language during beginning of the tornado.
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http://www.thefargos.com/weather/hurricane/2012_atl antic_hurricanes.jpg
Western Gulf looks to be in for it this year...However I say anywhere from Corpus Christi TX to Port Sulphur LA.
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1768. wxmod
If you throw a rock in a pond, what do you get?

MODIS satellite photo today, Pacific near Baja.

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Been a great start to the year. Lots of good info to comb through. Was quite often off topic in off season, now here only to contribute weather wise. Here in Wisconsin we have been under a moderate warning for severe weather by the SPC three times this year. This is unusual in itself. What's concerning is all three have been complete busts. Too much shear ruined the first called for outbreak, not completely sure what happened with the other two. SPC usually do a great job, the fact they are zero for three here in Wisconsin is concerning because we have a very tuned out public here. I love the weather, and I come here for the info from those in the know. Thanks all, I would chime in more........but often, less is more.
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Mawar needs just a little more before the eye totally closes off:

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Quoting gator23:


In private all of my gambling choices have netted me 1 million


I won 126 bucks playing poker, does that count? lol
Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
I bet that I would never comment on my betting habits.


darn...
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1763. gator23
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah me too. Weird. I also predicted the storms for last year, correctly, in my head. Awesome!


In private all of my gambling choices have netted me 1 million
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Well one storm I did predict right was Igor...But that was a wild guess.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I predicted it in my head. :P


Yeah me too. Weird. I also predicted the storms for last year, correctly, in my head. Awesome!
Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
1760. gator23
Quoting washingtonian115:
How is accuweather going to boldly going to come out with a prediction saying three more landfalls?.


I miss Bastardi.....nope
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What do you mean "if" it comes to pass? Don't you remember? I predicted [in my head] that the USA would go six years without a major hurricane landfall, the longest streak on record. I also predicted a hurricane of epic proportions would devastate the Mississippi/Louisiana coastline in August 2005, the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record would occur in October 2005, and the NHC would be monitoring a tropical cyclone on New Year's Eve 2005.


Predict when the next season like 2005 will happen. :-)

I'm pretty sure none of us will ever see it...what a year that was.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It says you joined July 6 2010.Not 05 :).

I predicted it in my head. :P
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
1757. pottery
Quoting sunlinepr:


Yeap, its weather... Down here what we get is Saharan Dust.... Even if Chavez Nuclear goes off, you are free of Fallout :)

Did you knew about the Sedan Test and how weather affected it?

Link

Link

Depends on the time of year, and how high the radioactivity goes over Venezuela.
If it had happened last month I would be feeling a little unwell right now....
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What do you mean "if" it comes to pass? Don't you remember? I predicted [in my head] that the USA would go six years without a major hurricane landfall, the longest streak on record. I also predicted a hurricane of epic proportions would devastate the Mississippi/Louisiana coastline in August 2005, the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record would occur in October 2005, and the NHC would be monitoring a tropical cyclone on New Year's Eve 2005.
It says you joined July 6 2010.Not 05 :).
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Quoting washingtonian115:
That's a pretty bold prediction..we'll see if it will come to pass.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


This has been screen-capped for future reference

What do you mean "if" it comes to pass? Don't you remember? I predicted [in my head] that the USA would go six years without a major hurricane landfall, the longest streak on record. I also predicted a hurricane of epic proportions would devastate the Mississippi/Louisiana coastline in August 2005, the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record would occur in October 2005, and the NHC would be monitoring a tropical cyclone on New Year's Eve 2005.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
Quoting kipperedherring:
Sorry if I got carried away, I'm a huge fan.


lol how?
Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting pottery:

Yep, I just watched that. An excellent video.Thanks.
I'm not disputing the possibility that there are several agendas in place.
I'm not doubting the dread effects of Nuclear situations.
I'm not doubting the possibility of fallout affecting millions.

And I am all for discussing this here on this blog, because it is WEATHER that moves these things from place to place, i.e. ocean currents, airflows, weather systems.


Yeap, its weather... Down here what we get is Saharan Dust.... Even if Chavez Nuclear goes off, you are free of Fallout :)

Did you knew about the Sedan Test and how weather affected it?

Link

Link
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i like how all the analog years have at least a tropical storm making landfall in Nova Scotia... I guess ill just have to wait and see...
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Quoting kipperedherring:
One more time people! Who's with me?! Let's hear it for Tornadodude!!!!!!

Yay...

Whoo...

Yippee...
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
1748. Patrap
Partial lunar eclipse sets the stage for Venus transit
Earth's shadow covers up part of moon early Monday, then Venus has its day in the sun


By Mike Wall

updated 6/3/2012 6:45:59 PM ET
Print Font:

The historic transit of Venus across the sun Tuesday is a must-see for skywatchers, but observers shouldn't overlook another celestial event that comes just one day earlier — a partial lunar eclipse of the June full moon.

On Tuesday, Venus will trek across the sun's face from Earth's perspective, marking the last such transit of Venus until 2117. In a sort of celestial warmup, the full moon will dive through Earth's shadow on Monday morning to produce a partial lunar eclipse that will be visible to observers throughout parts of North America, Asia and the Pacific region, weather permitting.

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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