Spring 2012 in the contiguous U.S. demolished the old records for hottest spring and most extreme season of any kind, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. With the warmest March, third warmest April, and second warmest May, the March - April - May spring season was 5.2°F above average--the largest temperature departure from average of any season on record for the contiguous United States. What's truly remarkable is the margin the old record was broken by--spring 2012 temperatures were a full 1°F above the previous most extreme season, the winter of 1999 - 2000. All-time seasonal temperature records are very difficult to break, and are usually broken by only a tenth of a degree. To see the old record crushed by a full degree is a stunning and unparalleled event in U.S. meteorological history.
Figure 1. Temperature rankings for spring 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Thirty-one states were record warm for the 3-month period, and an additional eleven states had top-ten warmth. Spring 2012 beat the previous record for hottest spring on record, set in 1910, by an remarkable 2°F. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
U.S. heat over the past 12 months: a one in half-a-million event
The U.S. record for hottest 12-month period fell for the second straight month in May. The June 2011 - May 2012 temperatures smashed the previous record by a startling 0.4°F, which is a huge margin to break a record by for a 1-year period. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Thirty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional ten states were top ten warm. Each of the 12 months from June 2011 through May 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895-present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 531,441. Thus, we should only see one more 12-month period so warm between now and 46,298 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as during the past 118 years. The unusual warmth was due, in part, to a La Niña event in the Pacific that altered jet stream patterns, keeping the polar jet stream much farther to the north than usual. However, it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 12 months could have occurred without a warming climate. Some critics have claimed that recent record warm temperatures measured in the U.S. are due to poor siting of a number of measurement stations. Even if true (and the best science we have says that these stations were actually reporting temperatures that were too cool), there is no way that measurement errors can account for the huge margin by which U.S. temperature records have been crushed during the past 12-month, 5-month, and 3-month periods.
Figure 2. Three of the top ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 3. The average temperature during January - May 2012 was the warmest on record: 5°F above the 20th century average for the period, and 1.3°F above the previous record set in 2000. January - May temperatures have been rising at about 1.8°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Second warmest May, warmest year-to-date period on record
May 2012 was the second warmest May in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Twenty-six states had a top-ten warmest May, and no states had a top-ten coolest May. The January - May 2012 period was the warmest January - May period since record keeping began in 1895, with temperatures 5°F above the 20th century average for the period. This broke the previous record set in 2000 by an unusually large margin--1.3°F.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for spring (March - April - May) shows that 2012 had the most extreme spring on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.
Most extreme spring and January - May period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the spring March - April - May period. This is more than twice the average value, and spring 2012 was the most extreme season of any kind in U.S. history. A list of the top five most extreme seasons since 1910, as computed using the CEI, show that two of the three most extreme seasons in U.S. history occurred in the past 12 months:
Spring 2012: 44%
Winter 1979: 42%
Summer 2011: 39%
Fall 1985: 39%
Spring 1934: 38%
Remarkably, 81% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during spring 2012, and 71% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during spring was 18%, which was the 19th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were the 8th largest on record. The year-to-date January - May period was also the most extreme such period in U.S. history, with a CEI of 43%. Climate change theory predicts that, in general, the climate should warm, wet areas should get wetter, and dry areas should get drier. The spring 2012 Climate Extremes Index reflects this pattern.
Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. None of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic through June 15.
Jeff Masters
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Ike Pumped the ridge :P
Speculation on intensity based on long range model runs is guesswork, not science.
well I usually don't make predictions but this year I predict two storms in the gulf!
What a weird question. He's just stating an opinion of which I agree. The 18z GFS is notorious for bizarre runs. Lighten up a little!
One more thing, no model is ever "valid" untill and unless the events it depicts "validate".
That's just due to trough timing.
dark clouds have be hovering over me and NWS site for half an hour now, apparently not built up high enough to drop a rain shaft. Text book setup by the way it looks
Tawx13 probably called it weird because that run was inconsistent with previous model runs which is most likely due to the reasons discusses above.
"Bust" the trough
Change the shower curtains
And lets not forget the "tunnels".
Cone of DOOM
Pinehole
Pinhole
Annular
Fish (caster)
West (caster)
Wish (caster)
Those are some other ones -__-
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
312 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD COLD-CORE LOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO THIS EVENING...VICINITY GULF POINT 26N 94W. THE SHALLOW LOW
TILTS AND DEEPENS WESTWARD WITH HEIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED CUT-OFF LOW
IS FOUND JUST OFFSHORE PALACIOS.
BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY (IE...THE BROAD LOW TILTS WESTWARD INTO THE
ELEVATED COLD-AIR POOL WITH HEIGHT)...IS PROVIDING THE ENERGY TO
MAINTAIN THIS EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM RAPID FRICTIONAL DECAY.
IN ADDITION...THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BROAD LOW
IS MAINTAINING A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH EXTENDS WEST-TO-EAST
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS-LOUISIANA COASTLINE.
THIS EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW WILL PROPAGATE POLEWARD...LANDFALLING
VICINITY CAMERON DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY...
BEFORE WASHING OUT.
LOL.......Point......Counterpoint
Texascaster
And I saw a new one the other day, raincasters. lol
Here a met says the 18z is not that innacurate:
Link
just scroll down to the met's post
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
718 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
FLC057-081-090045-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0024.120608T2318Z-120609T0045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HILLSBOROUGH FL-MANATEE FL-
718 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TEMPLE TERRACE...PLANT CITY...
BRANDON...FISH HAWK
NORTHERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 845 PM EDT
* AT 715 PM EDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED STREET FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADVISED AREA. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
KEEP CHILDREN FROM BEING SWEPT AWAY IN FLOODED DITCHES AND DRAINS.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR AND MAY STALL YOUR
VEHICLE. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP
VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
&&
LAT...LON 2775 8249 2779 8242 2781 8244 2783 8240
2786 8242 2789 8241 2790 8243 2807 8243
2807 8232 2809 8217 2807 8206 2741 8206
2740 8250
$$
14-MROCZKA
trollcaster-noun, one who throws trolls overboard.
Seriously guys, isn't that how it's always been? It's impossible to pinpoint anything this far out.
In the meantime while we wait for this "Chris" possibility to get closer, we're gonna have a really interesting system to watch as it dumps inches upon inches on drought-stricken areas of the southeast.
it defines me :)
While May was only the second-warmest on record, it was still in the top third for monthly average temperatures, marking 12 consecutive months with temperatures in that range, said Jake Crouch, a NOAA climate scientist.
"For that to happen 12 times in a row in a random circumstance is one in 540,000," he said.
Well Done Excellent choice.
Yep..it did that a LOT last season..
I saw the same thing about a month ago. For days on end it showed a ton of rain just off our coast. The EURO kept the low that would trigger the rain over land. Then just before all this happened the GFS came in line with the rest of the models and kept everything over land. Only to turn out the earlier GFS runs were correct. Most of the rain stayed offshore.
You are all forgetting COC ...LOL
Actually Im just about ready to give up rain ...easier that way. I dont like the torment of waiting for something and then it doesnt show up
Take a look at this...
What do you think of this? You can clearly see the circulation on the radar. Make sure you turn the Topo off to get the full effect ;)
Link
This line out East could very well faze out and not make it, but I like to think on the positive side. I do feel your frustration though! Hang in there buddy, it will show up sooner or later. I just hope it isn't a major hurricane that comes knocking on our door a month away.
Very informative. Thanks for posting.
Given the unreliability of intensity predictions even over the short-term, inconsistent intensities in the long-term is what I'd expect.
So consistent intensities is what would cause me to wonder about whether GFS has gone whack.
Okay, you and AtHome have got to me ...I'll be positive.
Would be awesome if we get a portion of that!
I like that question and I wish I knew the answer
Never heard of that one.....
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